汇率与国际收支1.ppt

Exchange Rates, The Balance of Payments, and Trade Deficits,The Purpose Of This Lesson,Is to explain how exchange rates and our international monetary system work and illustrate how fiscal and monetary policies may-or may not-be used in a global economy.,All That Has Changed,Beginning in the early 1980s, America began running huge trade deficits, and, over the years, these trade deficits have led to an accumulated net foreign debt of over $500 billion dollars.,Is This A Problem?,To many observers, Americas chronic trade deficits are every bit as dangerous as its chronic budget deficits. These “trade deficit hawks” warn that America is being forced to sell off its land and its factories - and its future - to finance these deficits.,The Trade Deficit Doves,Others, however, see the trade deficits simply as an opportunity to buy inexpensive foreign goods and enjoy a higher standard of living. These “trade deficit doves” argue that if foreign countries sell us cheap goods, we should buy and enjoy them and not try to erect竖起建立 protectionist trade barriers.,In This Lesson,Examine the scope of the trade deficit problem. Discuss the economic basis for international trade and learn some “balance of payments” accounting. Describe how exchange rates work and how the international monetary system is structured.,In This Lesson,Impacts of domestic fiscal and monetary policies on foreign capital markets and the trade deficit. Understand the important link between the budget and trade deficits and why it is important for nations to coordinate their fiscal and monetary policies in a global economy.,Open Economies,An economy that engages in international trade is called an open economy. A useful measure of such openness is the “trade share”-the ratio of a countrys exports or imports to its GDP.,开放经济和封闭经济的最大区别在于，在开放经济中，在任何一个既定年份中，支出无须等于物品和劳务的产出。一国可以通过向国外借贷使支出大于生产，或者可以使支出小于生产，并把差额贷给外国人。 对这一问题的理解请结合国民收入核算理论中的净出口概念。 Y=C+I+G+NX S-I=NX NX是贸易余额，S-I是国内储蓄与国内投资的差额，也可以说是国外净投资额。它等于国内居民贷款给国外的量减去外国人贷款给我们的量。 恒等式表明国外净投资等于贸易余额。 如果S-I和NX是正的，我们有贸易盈余，在这种情况下，我们在世界金融市场上是净债权人。如果是负的，我们有贸易赤字，在国际金融市场上是债务人。如果是零，说明存在贸易平衡。 上面的恒等式表明，国际间为资本积累筹资的资金流动和国际间物品与劳务的流动是同一枚硬币的两面。,小型开放经济中的储蓄与投资,资本流动与世界利率 小型开放经济是指这个经济是世界经济市场的一小部分，从而其本身对世界利率的影响是微不足道的。因此世界利率必定等于其本国利率。 假定： Y=Y*=F(K,L) C=C(Y-T) I=I(r) 则有NX=Y-C-G-I=S-I(r*),上式说明了储蓄、投资及贸易余额的决定：储蓄取决于财政政策，降低政府购买G或者提高税收T都增加了国民储蓄。投资取决于世界利率r*。 贸易余额是在世界利率时投资和储蓄的差额决定的。 在一个封闭经济中，实际利率的调整使得储蓄与投资均衡，在一个小型开放经济中，利率由世界市场决定，世界利率决定的储蓄与投资的差额，决定了贸易盈余的大小。,I,S,r,r*,r,I(r),S,NX,世界利率,经济封闭时的利率,贸易盈余,小型开放经济中的储蓄与投资,当国内储蓄低于国内投资时，国内投资者向国外借贷，当储蓄大于投资时，余量贷给其他国家。,是什么机制使得国际 资本流动和国际物品 流动相一致？,政策如何影响贸易余额,假设经济已开始处于贸易平衡状态，NX等于0。 国内财政政策变动的影响 政府扩大支出或者实施减税政策使得贸易出现赤字。 政府减少支出或者增税，使得贸易出现盈余。,I,S,r,r*,I(r),S1,NX,小型开放经济中的国内财政扩张,S2,初始的贸易平衡因为 财政政策扩张减少了 储蓄从而出现了贸易 赤字,国外的财政政策影响 国外财政扩张（大国）引起世界利率上升引起小国的贸易盈余。 投资需求的移动产生的影响 投资需求外移，引起贸易赤字。,I,S,r,r*2,r*1,I(r),S,NX,世界利率,贸易盈余,小型开放经济中国外的财政扩张,国外财政扩张达到足以 影响世界储蓄和投资使 得世界利率上升，较高 的世界利率减少了这个 小型经济国家的投资， 引起贸易盈余。,I,S,r,r*,I(r)1,S,小型开放经济中的储蓄与投资,I(r)2,投资曲线外移增加了 确定利率状态下的投资 量，投资大于储蓄，该 经济要从国外借贷，有 贸易赤字。,汇率,名义与实际汇率 名义汇率是指两个国家通货的相对价格。,Exchange Rates,The rate at which one nations currency can be traded for another nations currency.,Foreign Exchange Rates,Change in tastes Change in relative incomes Change in relative prices Change in relative real interest rates Speculation,Japanese autos decline in popularity in the United States (Japanese yen depreciates; U.S. dollar appreciates). German tourists flock to the United States (U.S. dollar appreciates; German mark depreciates) England encounters a recession, reducing its imports, while U.S. real output and real income surge,汹涌膨胀 increasing U.S. imports (British pound appreciates; U.S. dollar depreciates) Germany experiences a 3% inflation rate compared to Canadas 10% rate (German mark appreciates; Canadian dollar depreciates) The Federal Reserve drives up interest rates in the United States, while the Bank of England takes no such action (U.S. dollar appreciates; British pound depreciates) Currency traders believe France will have much more rapid inflation than Sweden (French franc depreciates; Swedish krona appreciates) Currency traders think German interest rates will plummet垂直下降 relative to U.S. rates (German mark depreciates; U.S. dollar appreciates),Determinant Examples,Different Rates Of Growth,If, for example, the U.S. gross domestic product is growing faster than the German GDP, the U.S. dollar will depreciate relative to the German mark. This is precisely what happened in the early 1990s when the U.S. economy was recovering faster than the economies of Europe.,An Income Effect,Through an “income effect” that we shall discuss further below, the U.S. recovery attracted additional European imports while exports to the sluggish European economies stagnated. This, in turn, led to a surplus of dollars relative to the European currencies and the dollars value declined.,A Change In Relative Interest Rates,When U.S. interest rates rise relative to British interest rates, the dollar will likewise appreciate relative to the British pound. The reason: higher U.S. interest rates will attract relatively more British investment.,In Order To Invest In America,The British must first buy dollars with their pounds. This drives the value of the dollar up relative to the pound. This “interest rate” effect has played a key role in driving U.S. trade deficits.,Different Rates Of Inflation,If, for example, the rate of inflation in Canada is higher than in Germany, the Canadian dollar will depreciate relative to the German mark. This is because exchange rates in the currency markets reflect real price differences in the goods markets.,Inflation & Exchange Rates,Thus, if inflation raises the actual or nominal price of, say, an auto made in Canada relative to the nominal price of an identical auto made in Germany, there must be a corresponding adjustment in the exchange rate so that the real, inflation-adjusted prices of the two autos stay the same.,As we discuss the structure of the international monetary system, we shall see how differing rates of inflation played a key role in the downfall of the so-called “gold standard” a key linchpin关键 of the international monetary system for over sixty years.,The intersection of the demand for pounds D1 and the supply of pounds S1 determine the equilibrium exchange rate. What is it?,S1,D1,Quantity of pounds,Q1,Q,$3,2,1,0,Dollar price of 1 pound,Suppose that there were a major recession in the United States. What would happen to the demand for dollars and the exchange rate?,S1,D1,Quantity of pounds,Q1,Q,$3,2,1,0,Dollar price of 1 pound,Suppose real interest rates rise in the U.S. What would happen now in the figure?,The dollar appreciates,S1,D1,Quantity of pounds,Q1,Q,$3,2,1,0,Dollar price of 1 pound,A rise in relative real interest rates in the U.S. would attract more pounds into currency markets. British investors will attempt to trade their pounds for dollars so they can shift their investments to the U.S.,The dollar appreciates,实际汇率是两国物品的相对价格。有时也被称为贸易条件。它表明我们按什么比率用一国的物品交换另一国的物品。 如果实际汇率高，外国物品就相对便宜，本国物品相对昂贵。如果实际汇率低，外国物品就相对昂贵，国内物品相对便宜。,实际汇率与贸易余额 如果实际汇率较低，意味着国内物品相对便宜，所以国内居民将减少购买国外产品，增大购买国内产品，国外居民增大对外国产品的购买，减少本国产品购买，因此对汇率较低国家的净出口需求量将增大。 如果实际汇率提高，就会出现相反的情况。,实际汇率的决定因素,实际汇率与净出口相关，当实际汇率低时，国内产品相对于国外产品较为便宜。 贸易余额必须等于国外净投资，国外净投资又等于储蓄减投资。储蓄由消费函数和财政政策固定，投资又投资函数和世界利率所固定。,NX(),S-I,如何决定实际汇率,实际汇率是由代表储蓄减 投资的垂直线和向右下方 倾斜的净出口曲线交点决 定的。在这个交点上，用于 国外净投资的货币供给量等 于物品与劳务净出口的货币 需求量。,政策如何影响实际汇率,国内财政政策 政府通过增加政府购买和减税减少国内储蓄，使得NX减少，引起贸易赤字。 国外财政政策的影响 如果国外政府增加政府购买或者减税，降低了世界储蓄并使得世界利率上升，减少了国内投资，增加了S-I，从而增大了NX，引起贸易盈余。 投资需求移动 投资需求扩大，在既定利率水平下，使得投资需求扩大，S-I和NX减少，引起贸易赤字。,NX(),S1-I,1,净出口,2,S2-I,储蓄减少使得货币供给减少,实际汇率上升,净出口减少,国内扩张性财政政策对实际汇率的影响,NX(),S-I(r2*),2,净出口,1,S-I(r1*),世界利率上升减少了 投资，增加了货币供给,实际汇率下降,净出口增加,国外扩张性财政政策对实际汇率的影响,NX