上财系列 帕金宏观经济学课件.ppt

A First Look at Macroeconomics,CHAPTER,0,About the course,Course name: Macroeconomics Course Serial No.: 0280; Course code: 107821 Course meet: Monday: 13:20 15:00; Room: 1109.,Textbook:,Required: Michael Parkin, Economics, 9th Edition. Pearson Addison-Wesley, 2010. Optional: Robin Bade & Michael Parkin, Foundations of Economics, 2nd Edition. Pearson Addison-Wesley, 2004. Hal R. Varian, Intermediate Microeconomics a modern approach, 7th ed. W.W. Norton.,Grading Policy,The final grade includes four parts: Quizzes: 10% Homework: 10% Midterm exam: 20% Final exam: 60%,Contact with us,Instructor: Zhang Deyuan Office Hours: 15:00 pm 17:00 pm Tuesday Office: Economics Building 319 Phone: 65902905 Email: zhangdy TA: Zong Qingqing （宗庆庆） Phone: zongqingqing,After studying this chapter you will be able to,Describe the origins and issues of macroeconomics Describe the trends and fluctuations in economic growth and explain the benefits and costs of economic growth Describe the trends and fluctuations in unemployment and explain why unemployment is a problem Describe the trends and fluctuations in inflation and the value of the dollar and explain why inflation is a problem Describe the trends and fluctuations in surpluses, deficits, and debts and explain why they matter Identify the macroeconomic policy challenges and list the tools available for meeting them,What Will Your World Be Like?,Will tomorrows world be more prosperous than today? Will jobs be plentiful? Will the cost of living be stable? Will the governments and the nations deficit continue to increase? What macroeconomic policy tools does the government have to steer the course of the economy?,Origins and Issues of Macroeconomics,Economists began to study economic growth, inflation, and international payments during the 1750s. Modern macroeconomics dates from the Great Depression, a decade (1929-1939) of high unemployment and stagnant production throughout the world economy. John Maynard Keynes book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, began the subject.,Origins and Issues of Macroeconomics,Short-Term Versus Long-Term Goals Keynes focused on the short-termon unemployment and lost production. “In the long run,” said Keynes, “were all dead.” During the 1970s and 1980s, macroeconomists became more concerned about the long-terminflation and economic growth.,The Development of Macroeconomics(I) -Classical Macroeconomics,1776年，苏格兰经济学家亚当斯密（Adam Smith）国富论（The Wealth of Nations）的发表， 标志着经济学作为一门独立学科的诞生。 国富论提出了“看不见的手”，即市场力量如同一只看不见的手引导经济活动达到最有状态。 政策含义：政府在自由经济体系中作用十分有限，政府不能通过经济政策影响宏观经济。 代表人物：李嘉图、米勒、马歇尔、庇古,大萧条（Great Depression）,经济活动在20世纪30年代的极速下落是美国经济史上最出人意料的宏观经济事件。这促成凯恩斯主义的诞生。同时，很多著名的经济学家投身经济学研究正是因为曾经经历了这个可怕的年代。,宏观经济学的发展（二） -凯恩斯主义经济学,凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）于1936年出版了就业、利息和货币通论（The General Theory of Employment,Interest and Money），标志凯恩斯经济体系的确立。 认为经济活动下降的原因是有效需求不足。 政策含义：政府可以通过经济政策刺激有效需求，减轻经济波动。 凯恩斯理论行之有效，因此取代了古典主义学派占据主导地位。代表人物：莫迪利亚尼、克莱茵、托宾、希克斯。,大滞胀 （Great Stagflation）,20世纪70年代出现了恶性通货膨胀，再加上停滞的产出水平和不断上升的失业水平，为弗里德曼和卢卡斯所宣扬的反凯恩斯思想提供了丰富的土壤。 “正如30年代大萧条为凯恩斯革命提供了有利的环境，70年代的大滞胀引导经济学家和公众迎接反凯恩斯革命的到来。”（托宾）,宏观经济学的发展（三）,（1）货币主义 货币主义的代表人物是美国芝加哥大学教授弗里德曼 。他认为政府的积极的宏观经济干预政策是引起宏观经济不为定的罪魁祸首。 货币主义认为政府唯一该做的事情就是给这种市场力量创造一个良好的发挥作用的环境，,Milton Friedman,The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the 1976 Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel to Milton Friedman for his achievements in the fields of consumption analysis, monetary history and theory, and for his demonstration of the complexity of stabilization policy.,（2）理性预期学派，新古典宏观经济学 经济学家普遍认为凯恩斯主义理论方面缺少微观经济学基础。 70年代以来，宏观经济学研究上出现了一种试图把宏观经济学与微观经济学相结合的探索力量即理性预期学派，其代表人物是芝加哥大学教授卢卡斯（Robert Lucas）, 理性预期学派使宏观经济学研究方法向古典主义复归，因此被称为新古典主义。,Robert E. Lucas,for having developed and applied the hypothesis of rational expectations, and thereby having transformed macroeconomic analysis and deepened our understanding of economic policy.,back,（3）新凯恩斯主义,费雪（Fischer) 泰勒（Taylor) 曼昆（Mankiw),宏观经济学家谱,魁奈 1758,亚当斯密 1776,17/18世纪,大卫李嘉图 1817,马尔萨斯 1798,卡尔马克思 1867/列宁1917,中 国,前苏联、 东欧国家,转轨经济,米勒 1848,瓦尔拉， 马歇尔，费雪 1880-1910,凯恩斯 1936,现代主流 经济学,重农学派,重商主义,古典经济学,社会主义,新古典经济学,1700年 1800年 1900年 1950年 1970年以后 经济学的萌芽时期 宏观经济学的建立 凯恩斯主义宏观经济学 和完善时期 的修改与发展 非凯恩斯主义宏观经济学 的形成和发展 斯密 马歇尔 凯恩斯 （国富论）（经济学 （通论） 新剑桥（罗宾逊） 现代主流经济学 原理） 新古典综合 （萨缪尔森） 1766年 1890年 1936年 萨缪尔森 货币主义 （经济学） （弗里德曼） 1948年 理性预期 （卢卡斯） 非瓦尔拉斯均衡 （贝纳西）,微观经济学与宏观经济学的区别,Origins and Issues of Macroeconomics,Short-Term Versus Long-Term Goals Keynes focused on the short-termon unemployment and lost production. “In the long run,” said Keynes, “were all dead.” During the 1970s and 1980s, macroeconomists became more concerned about the long-terminflation and economic growth.,Economic Growth and Fluctuations,Economic growth is the expansion of the economys production possibilitiesan outward shifting PPF. We measure economic growth by the increase in real GDP. Real GDP (real gross domestic product) is the value of the total production of all the nations farms, factories, shops, and offices, measured in the prices of a single year.,Economic Growth and Fluctuations,Economic Growth in the United States Figure 20.1 shows real GDP in the United States from 1960 to 2005.,The figure highlights: Growth of potential GDP Fluctuations of real GDP around potential GDP,Economic Growth and Fluctuations,Growth of Potential GDP Potential GDP is the value of production when all the economys labor, capital, land, and entrepreneurial ability are fully employed. During the 1970s, the growth of output per person sloweda phenomenon called the productivity growth slowdown.,Economic Growth and Fluctuations,Fluctuations of Real GDP Around Trend Real GDP fluctuates around potential GDP in a business cyclea periodic but irregular up-and-down movement in production.,Economic Growth and Fluctuations,Every business cycle has two phases: 1. A recession 2. An expansion and two turning points: 1. A peak 2. A trough Figure 20.2 on the next slide illustrates these features of the business cycle.,Economic Growth and Fluctuations,Most recent business cycle in the United States,Economic Growth and Fluctuations,A recession is a period during which real GDP decreases for at least two successive quarters. An expansion is a period during which real GDP increases.,Economic Growth and Fluctuations,Figure 20.3 shows the long-term growth trend and cycles.,Economic Growth and Fluctuations,Economic Growth Around the World Figure 20.4(a) compares the growth rate of real GDP per person in the United States with that for the rest of the world as a whole.,Economic Growth and Fluctuations,Figure 20.4(b) compares economic growth in the United States with that in other countries and regions from 1996 to 2006. Among the advanced economies, Japan has grown slowest and the newly industrialized Asian economies have grown fastest.,Economic Growth and Fluctuations,Among the developing economies, Central and South America have grown slowest and Asia has grown fastest. The world has grown a bit faster than the United States.,The Lucas Wedge and Okun Gap How costly are the growth slowdown and the lost output over the business cycle? To answer that question we measure: The Lucas wedge The Okun gap,Economic Growth and Fluctuations,The Lucas Wedge The Lucas wedge is the accumulated loss of output from the productivity growth slowdown of the 1970s . Figure 20.5(a) shows that the Lucas wedge is $72 trillion or 6.5 times the real GDP in 2005.,Economic Growth and Fluctuations,The Okun Gap Real GDP minus potential GDP is the output gap. A negative output gap is called an Okun gap. Figure 20.5(b) shows the Okun gap from recessions since 1973 is $3.3 trillion or about 30 percent of real GDP in 2005.,Economic Growth and Fluctuations,Benefits and Costs of Economic Growth The Lucas wedge is a measure of the dollar value of lost real GDP if the growth rate slows. This cost translates into real goods and services. It is a cost in terms of less health care for the poor and elderly, less cancer and AIDS research, worse roads, and less to spend on clean air, more trees, and cleaner lakes. But fast growth is also costly. Its main costs is forgone current consumption. To sustain growth, resources must be allocated to advancing technology and accumulating capital rather than to current consumption.,Economic Growth and Fluctuations,Jobs and Unemployment,Jobs In 2006, 143 million people in the United States had jobs. This number is 16 million more than in 1996 and 33 million more than in 1986. But the pace of job creation fluctuates. During the recession, the number of jobs shrinks. During the 19901991 recession, more than 1 million jobs were lost and during the 2001 recession, 2 million jobs disappeared.,Jobs and Unemployment,Unemployment Not everyone who wants a job can find one. On an average day in a normal year, 7 million people in the United States are unemployed. In a recession, the number is larger. For example, in 1990-1991 recession, 9 million people were looking for jobs. The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed people expressed as a percentage of all the people who have jobs or are looking for one.,Jobs and Unemployment,The unemployment rate is not a perfect measure of the underutilization of labor. For two reasons: The unemployment rate 1. Excludes people who are so discouraged that they have given up looking for jobs. 2. Measures unemployed people rather than unemployed labor hours. So it does not tells us about the number of part-time workers who want full-time jobs.,Jobs and Unemployment,Unemployment in in United States Figure 20.6 shows the unemployment rate from 1926 to 2006.,Jobs and Unemployment,During the 1930s, the unemployment rate hit 25 percent.,Jobs and Unemployment,The lowest rate occurred during World War II at 1.2 percent.,Jobs and Unemployment,During recent recessions, the unemployment rate increased but was not as high as in the Great Depression.,Jobs and Unemployment,The unemployment rate is never zero. Since World War II, it has averaged 5 percent.,Jobs and Unemployment,Unemployment Around the World Figure 20.7 compares the unemployment rate in the United States with those in Japan, Western Europe, and Canada. The U.S. unemployment rate has been lower than that in Western Europe and Canada but higher than that in Japan.,Jobs and Unemployment,The cycle in unemployment in Canada is similar to that in the United States. The cycle in unemployment in Western European is out of phase with that in the United States. Unemployment in Japan has drifted upwards since the mid-1990s.,Jobs and Unemployment,Why Unemployment Is a Problem Unemployment is a serious economic, social, and personal problem for two main reasons: Lost production and incomes Lost human capital The loss of a job brings an immediate loss of income and productiona temporary problem. A prolonged spell of unemployment can bring permanent damage through the loss of human capital.,Inflation and the Dollar,We measure the level of pricesthe price level as the average of the prices that people pay for all the goods and services that they buy. The Consumer Price Indexthe CPIis a common measure of the price level. We measure the inflation rate as the percentage change in the price level. Inflation arises when the price level is rising persistently. If the price level is falling, inflation is negative and we have deflation.,Inflation and the Dollar,Was low in the 1960s. Increased in the 1970s and early 1980s. Fell during the 1980s and 1990s. Increased after 2002.,Inflation in the United States,Inflation and the Dollar,Inflation Around the World Figure 20.9(a) shows the inflation rate in the United States compared with that in other industrial countries. U.S. inflation is similar to that in other industrial countries.,Inflation and the Dollar,Figure 20.9(b) shows the inflation rate in industrial countries has been much lower than that in developing countries.,Inflation and the Dollar,Hyperinflation The most serious type of inflation is hyperinflationan inflation rate that exceeds 50 percent a month. Why Inflation is a Problem Inflation is a problem for many reasons, but the main one is that once it takes hold, it is unpredictable. Unpredictable inflation is a problem because it Redistributes income and wealth Diverts resources from production,Inflation and the Dollar,Unpredictable changes in the inflation rate redistribute income in arbitrary ways between employers and workers and between borrowers and lenders. A high inflation rate is a problem because it diverts resources from productive activities to inflation forecasting. From a social perspective, this waste of resources is a cost of inflation. Eradicating inflation is costly because it brings a period of greater than average unemployment.,Inflation and the Dollar,The Value of the Dollar The value of the U.S. dollar in terms of other currencies is called the exchange ratea measure of how much your dollar will buy in other parts of the world. An example is the number of pesos that 1 U.S. dollar will buy.,Surpluses, Deficits, and Debts,Figure 20.10 shows the U.S. dollar exchange rate. When value of the dollar decreases, the U.S. dollar depreciates against other currencies. When value of the dollar increases, the U.S. dollar appreciates against other currencies.,Inflation and the Dollar,Why the Exchange Rate Matters When the U.S. dollar appreciates, U.S. consumers pay less for imported goods. But the higher dollar makes it harder for U.S. producers to complete in foreign markets. A higher dollar hurts U.S producers. When the U.S. dollar depreciates, U.S. consumers pay more for imported goods. So a lower dollar hurts consumers. But the lower dollar makers it easier for U.S. producers to complete in foreign markets.,Surpluses, Deficits, and Debts,Government Budget Balance If a government collects more in taxes than it spends, it has a government budget surplus. If a government spends more than it collects in taxes, it has a government budget deficit.,Surpluses, Deficits, and Debts,Figure 20.11(a) shows the U.S. federal government budget balance from 1960 to 2005. The budget deficit as a percentage of GDP increases in recessions and shrinks in expansions In 1998, a budget surplus emerged, but the budget deficit reappeared in 2001.,Surpluses, Deficits, and Debts,International Surplus and Deficit If a nation imports more than it exports, it has an international deficit. If a nation exports more than it imports, it has an international surplus. The balance on the current account equals U.S. exports minus U.S. imports but also takes into account interest payments paid to and received from the rest of the world.,Surpluses, Deficits, and Debts,Figure 20.11(b) shows the U.S. current account balance from 1960 to 2005. During the 1980s expansion, a large deficit appeared but it almost disappeared during the 19901991 recession. The current account deficit in 2005 was 6.3 percent of GDP.,Surpluses, Deficits, and Debts,Deficits Bring Debts A debt is the amount that is owed. When a government or a nation has a deficit, its debt grows. A governments or a nations debt equals the sum of all past deficits minus past surpluses. A governments debt is called national debt.,Surpluses, Deficits, and Debts,Figure 20.12(a) shows the U.S. government debt from 1945 to 2005. Budget surpluses and rapid economic growth shrink the debt. Budget deficits and slower economic growth swelled the debt.,Surpluses, Deficits, and Debts,Figure 20.12(b) shows the U.S. international debt from 1975 to 2005. Until 1986, the United States was a net lender to the world. But with increased deficits, the United States is now a net borrower from the world.,Macroeconomic Policy Challenges and Tools,Classical and Keynesian Views Economists views fall into two broad schools: Classical view: The economy behaves best if the government leaves people free to pursue their own self-interest. Attempts by the government to improve macroeconomic performance will not succeed. Keynesian view: The economy behaves badly if left alone and that government action is needed to achieve and maintain full employment.,Macroeconomic Policy Challenges and Tools,Five widely agreed policy challenges for macroeconomics are to: 1. Boost economic growth 2. Keep inflation low 3. Stabilize the business cycle 4. Reduce unemployment 5. Reduce government and international deficits,Macroeconomic Policy Challenges and Tools,Two broad groups of macroeconomic policy tools are Fiscal policymaking changes in tax rates and government spending Monetary policychanging interest rates and changing the amount of money in the economy The government conducts fiscal policy. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) conducts monetary policy.,CHAPTER,1,Will the U.S. economy remain weak through the next year or will it begin to expand more rapidly? To assess the state of the economy and to make big decisions about business expansion, firms use forecasts of GDP. What exactly is GDP? How do we use GDP to tell us whether our economy is in a recession or how rapidly our economy is expanding? How do we take the effects of inflation out of GDP to reveal the growth rate of our economic well-being? And how to we compare economic well-being across countries?,Gross Domestic Product,GDP Defined GDP or gross domestic product is the market value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a given time period. This definition has four parts: Market value Final goods and services Produced within a country In a given time period,Market Value GDP is a market valuegoods and services are valued at their market prices. To add apples and oranges, computers and popcorn, we add the market values so we have a total value of output in dollars.,Gross Domestic Product,Final Goods and Services GDP is the value of the final goods