产品的全生命周期评估(LCA).ppt

三、产品的全生命周期评估（LCA),ISO的定义是：对某产品系统全生命周期的输入、输出和潜在环境、能源、经济影响进行评估的过程。Anevaluationprocessofinput/outputandenvironment,energyandeconomyimpactwithintotalproductlifecycle.,1、生命周期评估内容与标准,生命周期评价起源于企业内部LCA的最初应用可追溯到1969年美国可口可乐公司对不同饮料容器的资源消耗和环境释放所作的特征分析。一些国际著名的跨国企业，如HP、IBM、AT现已推广到黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、河南、安徽5省以及湖北、山东、江苏、河北四个省的部分城市firstlyinHenanandHeilongjiangprovince,nowthepracticeregionhasdevelopedintoagreatareaincluding:Jilin,Liaoning,Henan,HeilongjiangandAnhuiprovinceandothercitiesinHubei,Shandong,Jiangsuprovince.,GuangXIlocatesinsouthChina,全区属喀斯特地形,Beautifulscenery,Poorsoil,广西壮族自治区GuangxiZhuangAutonomousRegion,Near1/5landiskarstlandforminGuangxi,广西位于中国南方,Casestudy1：LifeCycleAssessmentofCassavaEthanolFuelAutomobile案例1：木薯乙醇燃料汽车生命周期评估,土地贫瘠,风景优美,大部分土地不宜种粮食，但适宜种木薯Mostofthesoilisnotsuitableforriceplant,howeveritiswonderfulforthegrowingofcassava,广西木薯种植区域ThecassavaareasinGuangxiterritory,木薯：一种生长在浅表土壤层的块茎植物Cassava:onekindoftuberplantwhichgrowsinthesurfacesoil,木薯：过去苦难的象征；今后致富的财源。,木薯富含淀粉，是制造乙醇的好原料；cassavaisrichinstarch,whichisgoodmaterialtoproduceethanol过去制造酒精为了医用，市场很小，农民无法以此为生；ethanolisonlyformedicaluseinthepast,themarketisverylimited,thefarmerarenotablemakelivingfromcassava.酒精进入车用燃料市场，提供了巨大的市场空间；Sinceethanolwastreatedasafuel,ahugemarkethadappeared.木薯不与人、畜争夺粮食和饲料，与小麦、玉米为原料的酒精相比，具有强大的竞争力。Sincecassavahasnocommonneedswithhumanordomesticanimalforliving,itisabetterchoicetoproduceethanolthanwheatandmaize.,Cassava:thesymbolizationofpoorinthepast;thecashtreeinthefuture.,发展木薯乙醇车用燃料，使广西农民脱贫致富Makingmoneyfromdevelopingthecassavaethanolindustry广西政府的战略项目Guangxigovernmentstratagemprogram,估计：Estimation使400万亩土地得到应用，促进GDP的增长，增加地方政府的财政收入；Makeuseof26.666millionhectarepoorsoil,promotetheGDP,andincreasethelocalgovernmentrevenue;使约150万农民有物可种，脱贫致富Makesure150millionfarmershavesuitablecroptoplant,andhelpthemeliminatepoverty.解决约5000人的就业问题Providingjobsto5000unemployedcitizens.,木薯的种植与收获growingandharvestofcassava木薯的运输transportationofcassava木薯酒精生产producingofcassavaethanol酒精的运输transportationofethanol酒精与汽油或柴油的混合mixtureofethanol,gasolineanddiesel酒精燃料的分配allocationofethanolfuel,木薯酒精燃料全生命周期评估LCAofcassava-ethanolfuel,资源需求Resourcedemanding能源消耗energyconsumption环境污染environmentpollution,3E,LCA的第一步定义、建模thefirststepofLCA:Definition,modeling,1）定义目标SetObjective以广西生产的木薯为原料，生产车用燃料乙醇（99.5），混配成E10汽油，供中国汽车使用。Producetheethanolfuel(99.5%)forvehiclefromthecassava,thenmixitwithtraditionalfueltoprovideenergyforautomobile.,2）建立模型modelingmethod,环境模型的主要假设Themailassumptionsofenvironmentmodel,忽略混合过程的排放ignorethedischargeduringthemixingprocess只计算木薯皮中的氢氰酸和丹宁酸onlycountthehydrocyanicandtannin乙醇生产中的固体废物完全处理为DDGS和肥料thesolidwastesarecompletelyturnedintoDDGSandfertilizer火车机车和卡车的燃料为柴油thefueloflocomotivesandtrucksisdiesel,能量模型的主要假设Themailassumptionsofenergymodel,包含从种植地到车辆使用燃料周期的能量消耗includingthewholecyclefromlandplanttothevehiclefuel忽略原料阶段的能量消耗ignoringtheenergywasteduringtherawmaterialperiod包含后处理阶段产生的沼气includingthemarshgasinthepost-processingstage,成本模型的主要假设Themailassumptionsofcostmodel,包含发酵阶段产生的CO2和后处理阶段产生的DDGS饲料和肥料。IncludingtheCO2,theDDGSandfertilizerwhichisproducedinthepost-processingperiod和杂醇油及后处理阶段产生的沼气，尽管它们有利润收益。Althoughwecanmakeprofitfromthefuseloilandmarshgas,wemixthemtogether,3）定义边界条件definitionofboundarycondition,以年产10万吨燃料乙醇厂为评估单元；setthefactorywhoseoutputismorethan100thousandtonsasanevaluationunit从木薯种植起，到E10燃料在车辆发动机中燃烧后从尾气中排出为该产品全生命周期；theproductlifecycleisfromlandplanttoE10vehiclefueltotheafterburningdischarge所有输入均考虑附带的环境、能源与经济因素，即间接排放污染与间接能耗；allinputsaretakenintoaccountwithenvironmental,energyandfinancialfactors,whichareindirectpollutionandconsumption车辆工况：100,000公里，达到欧I标准。Workingconditionofvehicle:1000,000Km,reachEuropeanIstandard以合理的技术环境为依据。reasonablebasisofthetechnicalenvironment,LCA的第二步清单设计与总量计算thesecondstepofLCA:Listdesigningandgrosscalculation,生物质E10燃料的LCA-3E清单设计TheLCA-3ElistdesigningofE10,“Fishbone”Sketch,1）建立环境影响计算清单Designthecalculatinglistofenvironmentalimpacts,2）建立能源影响计算清单Designthecalculatinglistofenergyinfluence,3）建立成本计算清单Designthecalculationlistofcost,4）进行总量计算totalcalculation,本项目数据来源：thesourceofthisproject直接采集：实地调查的单位包括黑龙江华润金玉公司、黑龙江省发改委；河南天冠集团、河南省农业厅；广西天昌投资公司、广西桂孚科技投资公司、广西三西农场、广西农业科学研究院、广西热带植物研究所。Directlycollection:theinvestigationobjectsincluding:HuarunGoldJadecompany,Heilongjiangdevelopmentandinnovationcommittee,HenanTianguangGroup,Henanagricultureoffice,GuangxiTianchangInvestCompany,GuangxiGuifuTechnicalInvestCompany,GuangxiSanxifarm,GuangxiAgriculturalInstituteofTechnologyandGuangxiTropicPlantResearchCenter.相关数据库：如美国阿岗实验室GREET模型，欧盟Biofit模型等；Relateddatabase:e.g.theU.S.GREETmodelinAGANLaboratory,EUBiofitmodel公开发表的研究成果：如论文、会议报告等；PublishedResearchAchievement:papers,conferencereportsetc.公开出版物：如年鉴、专业书刊等Publishedbooks:suchasannualsandprofessionalbooks,LCA的第三步3E评估thethirdstepofLCA:3Eevaluation,1）环境影响评估evaluationenvironmentimpacts,结论：多数指标与汽油的排放持平，CO,SOx,与GHGs排放优于汽油。Result:mostofthedischargingindexaresimilartogasoline,whileCO,SOxandGHGsarelessthanthoseofgasoline,燃料乙醇生命周期排放Lifecycledischargeofethanolfuel,与同能量汽油相比，燃料乙醇的NOx与SOx两项排放明显高于汽油。从清单中发现，它们来自种植过程化肥生产与发酵过程煤的燃烧。Whengettingtheequivalentenergy,ethanolwilldischargemoreNOxandSOxthangasoline.Fromthelistwegettoknowthatthosewastegascomefromthefertilizerproducingandcassavafermentwhichneedplentyofcoaltosustainahightemperature.,2）能源影响评估evaluationofenergyimpact,燃料乙醇的能量输入/输出比：生产出具有1千焦耳能量的乙醇，需要X千焦耳的能量Energyinput/outputofethanol:demandingofenergy(XJ)for1,000Jethanolenergy,结论：Result从木薯乙醇中得到1千焦耳的能量必须消耗0.63千焦耳的能量。0.63KJenergyshouldbeconsumedtoproduce1KJenergyfromcassavaethanol木薯乙醇是燃料但不是能源。thecassavaethanolisjustfuelnotenergysource,每吨乙醇的净能量YThenetoutputenergyfor1tonethanolYY=吨乙醇所含能量生产一吨乙醇所消耗能量Y=theenergyof1tonethanol-theenergycost乙醇在我国不是能与汽油相比的能源InChina,thereisnopossibleforethanoltosharethefuelmarketwithgasoline.,3）经济影响评估evaluationofeconomyinfluence,一个10万吨乙醇生产项目：a100,000tonsethanolproductionproject可以将30万亩土地得到使用；Makeuseof1.999millionhectarepoorsoil农民可收入9473万元，取代原扶贫款8578万元；farmersget94,730,000RMBincome,replacetheformer85,780,000RMBwhichisfundforpovertyalleviationbythegovernment可安置300个工业就业岗位；bringabout300industrialworkingposition乙醇厂，运输分配系统均具明显的经济效益；ethanolfactoryandtransportationdistributionsystemgainobviousfinancialbenefit政府在全过程可得税收8,362万元；increasegovernmentrevenueby8,362,000RMB广西地方GDP增长19,023万元;enhancetheregionalGDPby19,023,000RMB但是，由于乙醇价格高于汽油，热能低于汽油，车主又不愿支付E10与汽油间的差价，政府必须补贴16,667万元，抵去税收，政府地方财政实际补贴8,035万元。However,thepriceofethanolishigherthangasoline,energyreleaseislessthangasoline,andvehicleholderarenotwillingtopayforthepricedifference,sothegovernmenthastogive16,667,000RMBsubsidies,subtract8,362,000thegovernmentactuallygiveout8,035,000RMB,结论：Result木薯乙醇项目可以推动广西GDP的增长。CassavacouldstimulatetheGDPprogressofGuangxi.但是政府必须给予补贴。However,thegovernmentshouldgivesubsidies.,LCA的第四步分析、决策theforthstepofLCA:analysisanddecision-making,1）敏感度分析sensitivityanalysis研究可变因素对结论的影响程度，为综合分析准备依据analyzethevariablefactorsinfluencedegreetotheresult,asthebasisforcomprehensiveanalysis将一些不敏感的可变因素从思维中剔除eliminatetheinsensitivevariablefactorsfrommind对评估结果造成重要影响的因素不一定是敏感因素insensitivefactormaycausedeepinfluence找出重要、又敏感的因素findouttheimportant(deepinfluence)andsensitivefactor,环境敏感因素分析analysisofenvironmentsensitivityfactor,煤是影响VOC,CO,NOX,PM10和SOX排放的关键因素CoalisthemainsourceofVOC,CO,NOX,PM10andSOX木薯种植是影响温室气体排放的关键因素cassavagrowisthemaininfluencefactorofgreen-housegasemission化学品是影响所有排放的另一个主要因素chemicalisanothermainfactorofallemissions,结论：result主要排放来自于煤的燃烧和木薯的种植。Themaingasemissioncomesfromthecoalcombustionandcassavagrow,X:石油价格（美元/桶）X:priceofoil(buck/bucket)P(x):汽油价格（元/升）gasolineprice(RMB/L)C1,2,3(x):小麦、玉米、木薯乙醇价格（元/升）priceofwheat,maizeandcassavaethanol(RMB/L),结论：补偿的主要原因是石油价格的影响Result:themainreasonofsubsidiesistheimpactcurrentpriceofgasoline,木薯原料成本过高thepriceofcassavaistoohigh乙醇价格高于同热能汽油Ethanolismoreexpensivethangasolineprovidingthesameenergy,经济敏感因素分析analysisofeconomicsensitivityfactor,能量消耗总计表totalenergyconsumptionTable,能量敏感因素分析analysisoftheenergysensitivityfactor,结论：主要能量消耗是生产乙醇过程。Result:theethanolproducingprocessconsumesthemostenergy,2）结论RESULT,乙醇是燃料，不是能源；ethanolisfuel,notenergysource;按现有技术水平广西的木薯资源如果全部用来发展燃料乙醇，最大潜力每年约为500万吨；thegreatestpotentialcassavaethanolproductionisabout5,000,000tons,accordingtotodaystechnologicallevel乙醇燃料带有很大的地域性，其最大范围取决于原料运输成本的极限半径；theethanolisaregionalfuel,whichdependsonthemaximumradiusofmaterialtransportcostE10燃料的使用，可降低汽车对城市环境污染，但对整个人类环境带来NOx及SO2的严重污染；E10willreducevehiclefrompollutingthecityarea,whilecausedrasticpollutionofNOxSO2totheglobalenvironment广西发展乙醇燃料工业，能为地区的社会经济发展带来明显的效益；Guangxiprovincecouldgalvanizethecassavaethanoltoenhancethecitizenslivingconditionandstimulatetheregionaleconomy为推行乙醇燃料的应用，政府必须在E10燃料与汽油差价上，给予补贴；toencouragetheapplicationofethanolfuel,governmentshouldgivesubsidiestomeatthepricedifferencesbetweenethanolandgasoline和玉米、陈化粮相比，木薯乙醇具有最好的综合效益。Cassavahasthebestoverallefficiencycomparingtomaizeandoldrice,结论：发展乙醇燃料对广西政府来说是可行的。Result:DevelopthecassavaethanolisfeasibletoGuangxigovernment,3）决策decisionmaking,建议走农工一体化道路，降低木薯原料的成本，从而减少政府计划的风险性；encouragefarmerstofollowtheagro-industrialroad,cutthecostofcassavamaterial,thusreducingtheriskofthegovernmentsplan建议充分发挥广西水电资源丰富的优势，采用电热锅炉生产蒸汽用于发酵；同时增加复合肥、减少氮肥的使用，从而减少全生命周期的排放污染；Guangxihasrichhydropowerresources,usingelectricboilersforsteamproductionfermentationatthesametimeincreasingcompositefertilizerandreducetheuseofnitrogenfertilizer,thusreducingthetotallifecycleemissionspollution世界石油价格在相当长的时间里，将保持上涨的态势，因此，是发展乙醇燃料的良好时机；inalongfuture,theworldoilpriceswillmaintainarisingtrend,therefore,isagoodtimetodevelopfuelethanol制定新的木薯收购、乙醇生产、E10燃料税收政策，大力扶持木薯乙醇燃料的生产；enactanewcassavapurchase,theproductionofethanol,E10fueltaxpolicy,andvigorouslysupportcassavaethanolfuelproduction;加大科技投入，开发木薯高产良种与低温发酵技术。Putmoretechnologicalskillintocassavaethanolproduction,researchanewhighyieldingvarietyofcassavaandlowtemperaturefermentationtechnology,研究目标：objective对电动助动车系统进行环境影响分析，并和燃油助动车系统进行比较。Conductanenvironmentalimpactanalysisoftheelectricbicyclesystem,compareitwiththemotorcyclepowersystem,燃油助动车motorcycle,电动助动车electricbicycle,案例二project2,福特中国电动助动车计划全生命周期评估LCAofFordelectricbicycleplaninchina,随着人民生活水平的提高，自行车已不能满足人们出行的要求，但轿车一时还不能进入家庭，因此助动车是人们最好的选择。Withtheimprovementoflivingstandards,abikehasbeenunabletomeettherequirementsofthepeople,butitstooearlyforcarenteringthefamily,electricbicycleisthebestchoiceforpeople.上海市有600,000辆燃油摩托车，造成城市大量的空气污染，上海市政府计划用电动自行车替代燃油摩托车。Thereare600,000motorcyclesinShanghaiwhichcausealotofurbanairpollution,tochangethiscondition,themetropolisgovernmentdecidetoreplacemotorcyclewithelectricbicyclewhichisclean.两轮动力车辆是发展中国家重要的私人交通工具，福特有意进入这一市场。Twowheeltransporttoolsplaythemainroleinpersonaltravelindevelopingcountries,Fordintendstoenterthemarket.,背景background,产品生命周期分析(LCA)方法ThemethodofLCA,LCA分析模型与边界条件AnalysismodelandboundaryconditionofLCA,燃油助动车油耗3.3升/100公里；consuming3.3L/Kmformotorcycle电动助动车35公里，每次充电耗电量1.24瓦时；consuming1.24watthourfor35Km每个电池可充电300次；thebatterycouldrechargefor300times两种车使用寿命10万公里；life-longrunningdistanceis100,000Kmfortwoofthem上海为100火电，1千瓦时需消耗409克无烟煤。Shanghaipowerplantsare100%thermalpower,whichconsumes409gblindcoalforonewatthour