电信行业--无线通讯领域的技术进步和产品开发趋势(PPT 44页)-中英文.ppt

Technologyandproductdevelopmenttrendsinwirelesscommunications无线通讯领域的技术进步和产品开发趋势,JahanGhofraniha,Ph.D.Taiyuan,Shanxi,ChinaAug31-Sept3,NorthwesternPolytechnicUniversity美国西北理工大学,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,2,Outline主要内容,Wirelesstechnologyoverview.无线通讯技术的回顾Trendsinwirelesscommunications.无线通讯的发展趋势Maintechnologiesaffectingthesetrends.影响这些发展趋势的主要技术Mainplayersinwirelesssemiconductorsector.无线半导体行业中的主要竞争对手Interactionofnetworkingtechnologyandmobilecommunications.互连网技术和移动通讯技术的相互作用,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,3,TechnologyOverview技术回顾,1G,2G,2.5G,3Gand4G.,ANALOGAMPS,TACS,NTT,1980199020002010years,1G2G3G4G2.4kbps64kbps2Mbps1Gbps,DIGITALIS-95,IS-136,GSM,PDC,IMT-2000,Broadbandwireless,Narrowband窄带Wideband宽带Broadband,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,4,TechnologyOverview技术回顾,1Gwasveryslowandmostlycarryoverfromthepast.1G非常慢，都是已发生图象2G,fasterdatarates(upto64kps)buttooslowforretrievingimagesandtext.2G比较快（可达64kps），但是还是太慢，不能回溯图象和文本Thewiderangedemandondataratesledto3Gstandard(highdatarates,2Mbps).对数据传输速率的广泛需求导致了3G标准的诞生（高速传输，2Mbps)4G,globalwirelesssystemgoalistooffercellularandnomadicbroadbandaccesseverywhere.4G全球无线系统的目标是让全世界每个地方都能够连接到离动宽带网上。,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,5,WirelessTrendsinUserDomain从用户的角度看无线通讯的发展趋势,Increasein2.5Gand3Ghandsets.2.5G和3G话机增加Enhancedmultimedia(Edge,GPRS,Cameraphones).多媒体效果加强（Edge,GPRS，可摄象话机等）,FromGartnerReport,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,6,MobileWorldMarket移动通讯世界市场,Enhancedphoneswillhavethemainmarketshare.功能强大的话机将占据主要的市场分额,2003,2006,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,7,3GArchitectureImpact3G结构的影响,3Garchitecturewillchangethesemiconductortrendstowardsasinglechipimplementation.3G结构将使半导体技术朝着单芯片结构发展,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,8,3GArchitectureImpact3G结构的影响,In3Gweseeasinglechipimplementation.在3G结构中我们看到的是单芯片结构,Memory,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,9,MarketDemandsLowCost市场需求与降低成本,Therewillbealotofpressureonhandsetmanufacturerstobringthecostdown.话机制造商将面临巨大的市场压力来降低成本2000Nokia82102002skyworksGSM/GPRSChipsetBaseband:$15.62-Baseband:$11.00PwrMgnt:$4.00-PwrMgnt:$4.00Transceiver:$4.16-Pwramp:$3.00PwrAmp:$2.67-antenna:$2.00Antenna:$2.00Total:$28.45-Total:$20.00,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,10,RoleofBasebandSection基带的作用,Basebandprocessingconstitutesthemaincostofthesystem.基带处理将是整个系统中成本最高的部分Basebandwilldominatethecostwhileitwillbethemainrevenuefactor.基带将继续是成本的主要部分，同时也将是收入的主要部分RFcontributionswilldecrease.RF的贡献将减少Basebandincludes;analoganddigitalBB,memory,powermanagementandmediaprocessor.基带包括：模拟和数字BB，存储器，电源管理和媒体处理器,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,11,BasebandProcessing=Growth基带处理=增长,Basebandiswhereallthewirelesschipsetmanufacturersarefocusing.基带是所有无线芯片制造商都非常注目的地带Thistranslatesintonewapproachestobasebandprocessing,newpowermanagementsystemsandinnovativememorysolutions.这也就是说，基带处理、电源管理和存储方式将不断地进行改进,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,12,ImportantArchitectures,Wirelessapplicationprocessorswillcombinevideoandgraphics.无线处理器将集图象和图表功能与一体。Whatisthetradeoff?那么为此而付出什么代价？Thereare3mainarchitectures:主要有三种结构：Standaloneapplicationprocessors独立处理器HighestPerformance.功能最强HighestCost.成本最高,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,13,ImportantArchitectures,2.Integratedapplicationprocessors集成处理器LowCost.成本低HighPerformance.性能好3.Basebandapplicationprocessing基带处理LowestCost.成本最低LowestPerformance.性能最差,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,14,RFPackagingTrendsRF包装发展趋势,Enhancedphoneswillbethedrivingforceinthehandsetmarket.强化话机将占据话机市场的主流RFchipswillalsomovetowardsasinglepackagesolution.RF芯片也将朝着单包装的方向发展Examplesare:Skyworks,RFMD,Agilent,Renesas,Motorola.例如：Skyworks,RFMD,Agilent,Renesas,Motorola,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,15,InnovativeRFArchitectures创新性RF结构,Newmultiband/multimodehandsetswillneednewRFsolutions.新的多带/多制式话机将需要新的RF结构设计RFarchitecturesaddressthenewdemandbyusingSiGeandCMOSprocesses.RF结构将通过使用SiGe和CMOS处理系统来满足新的需求NewreconfigurablearchitectursandWCDMAbasebandprocessorswillcometohelp.另外，新的可重新刻度结构和WCDMA基带处理器也能够帮助满足新的市场需求BulkAcousticalWaveFilters.大容量声学滤波器,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,16,KeyPlayersinWirelessChipset无线芯片领域的饿主要竞争对手,IntelTIQualcommMotorolaSTMicroPhilipsInfineonAgereSkyworksRFMD,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,17,KeySemiPASuppliers主要半导体PA供应商,RFMDSkyworksRenesasMotorolaPhilipsAnadigics,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,18,KeySemiTransceiverSuppliers主要半导体无线电收发机供应商,InfineonMotorolaQualcommSTMicroFujitsuNECToshiba,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,19,NetworkingTrends网络化发展趋势,WirelessLANswillconnectdevicestoeachotherandtotheinternet.无线LAN将把各种设备连接在一起，并且连接到互连网上WirelessPANswillconnectdevicestoeachotherandperipherals.无线PAN将把各种设备连接在一起，并连接到外围设备上Allofthesewillbeimpactedbyembeddedradiotechnologies.所有这些都将受到嵌入无线电技术的影响Wirelesschipsetshipmentgrowthwillsurpasschipsetrevenue.无线芯片的货运量增长将快于无线芯片收入的增长,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,20,NetworkingTrends网络化发展趋势,Inorderforthenetworkchipsetrevenuetogrow,thetargetmarketshouldshiftfromPC.为了促使网络芯片销售收入的增长，目标市场应该从个人电脑转移到其他领域BlueTooth:兰牙Thekeyideaisthemobility.主要理念是灵活性Wirereplacementandconnectionwithperipherals.有线替代和与外围设备的连接By2006,theestimatedrevenuewillbe2.0B到2006年，预计销售收入将达到20亿美圆,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,21,BlueToothDrawbacks兰牙的缺点,Lackofinteroperabilitybetweendifferentmanufacturers.不同的制造商生产的产品缺乏相匹配性Securitycanbeeasilymodifiedbyadministrators.安全性能很容易被管理者修改Difficultsetup(HCIinterfaceispoor).启动困难（HCI接口性能很差）,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,22,KeyPlayersinBlueTooth兰牙领域的主要竞争对手,CambridgeSiliconRadioPhilipsTISiliconWaveBroadcomInfineonMotorola,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,23,NetworkingandWirelessCom网络化和无线通讯,Allinonesolutionwillbethewaveofthefuture.一体性解决方案将是未来发展的主流WCDMA,GSM/GPRS/EDGEhandsetswithbluetoothconnectivity.WCDMA,GSM/GPRS/EDGE话机，带兰牙连接WLANandBTPDAsandnotebooks.WLAN和BTPDA和笔记本SmartPhonescombinedwithPDAs,BTandcellularandWLANcapabilities.带PDA，BT和蜂窝与WLAN匹配功能的智能话机,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,24,NetworkingandWirelessCom网络化和无线通讯,Thewinnerinthefuturemarketisthecosteffectivesolutionthatwillbringallthesefunctionalityinonedevice.未来市场的胜利者将是能够将所有这些功能集于一体，而且成本效益比最佳的生产商,从美国的角度看技术发展趋势和东亚的作用TechnologyTrendsandtheRoleofEastAsiaAnAmericanPerspective,JahanGhofraniha,Ph.D.NPUChinaMobileWorkshopTiayuan,ShanxiAugust31-Sep3,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,26,趋势Trends,Digitaltechnologyhashadagreatimpactinourlivesandcontinuestoplayasignificantrole.数字技术对我们的生活有着非常重要的影响，并将继续发挥其重要作用Intheglobalcontext,Technologyisconvergingandbecomingmoreuniform.在全球一体化背景下，出现技术收敛效应，技术标准越来越统一。DigitalContentwillbethewavethatwillhitusnext.数字化的内容将是影响我们生活的下一个冲击波,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,27,Trends趋势,Bigcompaniesinsiliconvalleyarefocusingondigitalentertainmentastheirnextbigthing.硅谷的大公司正在将数字化娱乐作为下一个开发的重点ThebuzzisiPodratherthansimplePDAandnetworkentertainmentratherthannetworkedcomputers.要的是iPod，而不是简单的PDA；是网络娱乐，而不是简单的网络联机Intelisinvesting$200m,indigitalhomes.英特尔投资2亿美圆构建其数字家园,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,28,Requirements要求,HighFidelityincontentcreation:Morevisuallyexcitingcontents(movies,games,etc)byconvergingimage/signalprocessing,graphics,audio,etc.编辑内容的高保真性：通过将影象/信号处理，图象，声音等信号的敛聚，创造更加具有视觉震撼性的内容（电影，游戏等）Highfidelityincompression:advancedcompressiontechniquesdeliverbetterqualitycontentwithsmallamountofinformation.压缩的高保真性：能够用更小的信息量传递更加高质量的内容的先进压缩技术,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,29,Requirements要求,Morecontentstoragespaceeverywhere:storagespaceisgettinglargerandmoreportable(inPCs,digitalcameras,etc)andthepriceisgettinglower.越来越大的存储量：存储空间越来越大，越来越方便移动（如个人电脑，数码相机等），价格越来越低Morecontentsanytimeandanywhere:combinationofwirelesshomenetworkingandbroadband,devicesareconnectedeverywhereanddifferentdevicescommunicatemoreseamlessly.随时随地，内容丰富：无线网络和宽带结合在一起，设备互联，设备间的交流更加通畅,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,30,Requirements要求,Moreinteractiveenvironment:interactiveTV,educationandlearning,games更能够互动的环境：互动电视，教育和学习，游戏等等,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,31,Challenges挑战,Cybersecurity:Alldevicesareconnectedtointernetbutsecurityisthedrawbackofthisconnectivity(spam,virus,fraud,spyware,)网络安全：所有的设备都连接到互连网上，但是安全成为这种连接的致命问题（垃圾邮件，病毒，欺诈，间谍文件等）Piracy:intellectualpropertyforthecontentprovidersononehandandfilesharingontheotherhandhasbroughtaboutnewefforttomakepiracydifficultandunachievable.个人隐私：内容提供者的知识产权保护与文件在公众间的共享之矛盾为保护个人隐私提供了新的课题，使得保护个人隐私非常困难,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,32,Challenges挑战,RoyaltyandStandards:drivethecostofsimilarproducthighandmaynotbeacceptedbytheindustry.忠诚与标准：使得同类产品的成本增加，可能导致业界难以接受DigitalEquality:widensthegapbetweentheinternetsavvygenerationandpeoplelivinginruralareasandlesseducated.数字世界的人人平等：使得互连网冲浪者和居住在农村、受教育程度较低人群之间的鸿沟越来越大,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,33,Opportunities机遇,Innovativeproductsinnewdigitalhome.Easeofuseandportabilityarethekeyissues.新数码世界中的创新性产品。使用舒适与便携性是重点Softwarethatmanagescontents.Aneasy-to-usesoftwarethatmanages1000ofimagesofadigitalcamera.内容管理软件。使用方便，可以管理1000个数码相机图象的软件Homenetworkingfacilitator.Asystemthatcanhandlemanydevicestoexchangeand互连器，可以控制多个设备进行数据交换的系统,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,34,Opportunities机遇,Andshareinformation.Thegrowthestimateinthismarketisabout$5.3bin2007.信息共享。预计到2007年市场增长将达到53亿美圆Howwouldthesetrendsplayoutintheglobalcontext,especiallyinEastAsiawhereweseethehighestgrowthrateinthepastfewyears?在全球化进程中，这种趋势将发挥什么样的作用？尤其是在东亚地区，过去几年这里的增长速度是全世界最快的,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,35,DevelopmentinEastAsia东亚的发展,TheeffectofgrowthofEastAsiaisfeltallovertheworld.全世界都能感受到东亚快速增长所带来的后果ThemainissueisiftheEuropeanandNorthAmericancountriescancompetewiththeEastAsiancountriesiftheywanttomaintainthewelfaresystemandgovernmentsponsoredindustries?主要问题是：如果欧洲国家和美洲国家依然保留其福利制度和政府扶持企业的政策，这些国家能否和东亚地区的国家相竞争？,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,36,KeyPlayers主要参与者,Taiwan:台湾Moststrikingdevelopmentinthelast40years.过去40年间取得的惊人成就Mostsuccesfulindustrieshavebeen:semiconductorcompanies(TSMCinHsinChuandUMCinTaipei)thatcontrolsofthe$20bglobalcontractchipmarket.最成功的行业包括：半导体业（新竹的TSMC和台北的UMC），控制了全球芯片市场总容量200亿美圆中的四分之三,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,37,KeyPlayers主要参与者,Worldlargestnotebookmanufacturer.世界最大的笔记本制造基地2ndLCDmanufacturer.世界第二大LCD制造基地Whathasfueledthisgrowth?什么原因促使了这种发展？Thestrongcultureofentrepreneurship.传统的敬业精神LackofgovernmentfundedR&D.Survivalofthefitteststrategy.没有政府出资的R&D，最好的策略胜出Ironically,therelationshipwithChinahasbeenhelpful.颇具讽刺意味的是，与中国大陆的关系也对这种发展提供了帮助,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,38,KeyPlayers主要参与者,Biginvestmentsinchinahastiedtheeconomyofthetwocountriestogether.在中国的巨大投资将这两个国家绑在了同一条战船上SouthKorea:韩国Ithasachievedthesamelevelofdevelopmentin50yearsaswhatSpainachievedin200years.用50年的时间取得了西班牙用200年的时间所取得的发展成就Majormakerofmemorytechnology.存储技术的主要设计者,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,39,KeyPlayers主要参与者,Cellphones,flatpaneldisplaysandcars.蜂窝电话，平板显示器和汽车StrategyhasbeentotargetUSmarketratherthanChinabyadoptingUScellphonestandards.策略是瞄准美国市场，而不是中国市场，采用美国蜂窝电话标准Similarcopy-catstrategytoJapanbuteasingthisapproachandopeningthemarket(chaebol).同日本策略相似，但是更加谨慎，同时开放市场,Aug31-Sept32006,ChinaMobileWorkshop,40,KeyPlayer(USperspective)主要参与者（从美国的角度看）,WouldliketobethesteppingstoneorahubforWesterncompaniesintoChina(CrystalValley,enclaveofdigitalmediainSeoul,bullettrainthatconnectsNorthwesttosouth).希望成为西方公司进入中国的铺路石或媒介China