国金总资料.doc

_1. Balance of payments: The scorecard is the balance of payments, the set of accounts recording all flows of value between a nations residents and the residents of the rest of the world during a period of time.2. Credit item: A credit item (measured with a positive sign) is an item for which the country must be paid. It sets up the basis for a payment by a foreigner into the countrythat is, it creates a monetary claim on a foreigner.3. Debit item: (measured with a negative sign) is an item for which the country must pay. It sets up the basis for a payment by the country to a foreignerthat is, it creates a monetary claim owed to a foreigner.4. Official international reserve assets: Official international reserve assets are money- like that are held bay governments and that are recognized by governments as fully acceptable for payments between them.5. Foreign exchange: is the act of trading different nations moneys. (A foreign exchange transaction is a trade of one national money for another.)6. Spot exchange rate: The spot exchange rate is the price for “immediate” exchange.7. Forward exchange rate: The forward exchange rate is the price set now for an exchange that will take place sometime in the future.8. Depreciation: Under the floatingrate system a fall in the market price (the exchange rate value) of a currency is called a depreciation.9. Appreciation: Under the floatingrate system a rise in the market price (the exchange rate value) of a currency is called an appreciation. (a rise is an appreciation).10. Devaluation: We refer to a discrete official reduction in the otherwise fixed par value of a currency as a devaluation.11. Revaluation: Revaluation is the antonym describing a discrete raising of the official par.12. Exchange rate risk: A person (or an organization like a firm) is exposed to exchange rate risk when if the value of the persons income, wealth, or net worth changes when exchange rates change unpredictably in the future. 13. Bandwagon: They extrapolate the recent trend into the future. This is a bandwagon.14. Law of one price: The law of one price posits that a product that is easily and freely traded in a perfectly competitive global market should have the same price everywhere, once the prices at different places are expressed in the same currency.15. Overshooting: It is useful to consider this relationship in more depth, to expiore phenomenon of overshooting.16. Exchange control: Exchange controlthe countrys government places some restrictions on use of the foreign exchange market.17. Capital controls: Imposes some form of capital controls, by placing limits or requiring approvals for payments related to some (or all) international financial activities.18. Adjustable peg: If the exchange rate is not permanently fixed, then the government must also decide when to change the fixed rate. If the answer is seldom, the approach is called an adjustable peg.19. Crawling peg: If the exchange rate is not permanently fixed, then the government must also decide when to change the fixed rate. If often, it is called a crawling peg.20. Reserve currency: If the countrys currency is a reserve currency, then the country can effectively borrow through official channels by issuing assets that will be held as reserves by the central banks of other countries.21.Monetary base: The total of these two centralbank liabilities, currency and deposits from banks, is called the monetary base.22. Perfect capital mobility: In the extreme case of perfect capital mobility, the fiscal change can have the full spending multiplier effect because the domestic interest rate remains unchanged and equal to the foreign interest rate.23. Assignment rule: In fact, policymakers can follow a simple assignment rule with fair chances of at least approaching the combination of internal and external balance.24. J curve: The current account balance thus deteriorates at first, but after a period of months it tends to improve, tracing out a pattern called the J curve. Chapter 25.Which of the following transactions would contribute to a U.S. current account surplus?A. Boeing barters a $100 million worth of hotel services on the Mexican coast.B. The United States borrows $100 million from Saudi Arabia to buy $100 million of Saudi oil this year.C. The United States sells a $100 million jet to Turkey pays by transferring the $100 million from its bank account to the U.S. seller.D. A British investor buys $100 million of IBM bonds from the previous U.S. owner of these bonds, and the British buyer pays by transferring the $100 million from her bank account to the previous U.S. owner.8.You are given the following information about a countrys international transactions during a year:Merchandise exports (商品出口) $330Merchandise imports (商品进口) 198Service exports (劳务出口) 196Service imports (劳务进口) 204Income flows, net(流量净额) 3Unilateral transfers, net (单方面转移金额) -8Increase in the countrys holding of foreign assets, net 202(excluding official reserve assets)(增加在该国的净外国资产)Increase in foreign holding of the countrys assets, net 102(excluding official reserve assets)(增加在该国的本国资产) Statistical discrepancy, net(净统计误差) 4A. Calculate the values of the countrys goods and services balance, current account balance (经常账户余额),and official settlements balance(官方储备资产余额).Merchandise trade balance: $330 - 198 = $132Goods and services balance: $330 - 198 + 196 - 204 = $124Current account balance: $330 - 198 + 196 - 204 + 3 - 8 = $119Official settlements balance: $330 - 198 + 196 - 204 + 3 - 8 + 102 - 202 + 4 = $23B. What is the value of the change in official reserve assets(net)(官方储备资产)?Is the country increasing or decreasing its net holding of official reserve assets?Change in official reserve assets (net) = - official settlements balance = -$23.The country is increasing its net holdings of official reserve assets.Chapter 31. What are the major types of transactions or activities that result in demand for foreign currency in the spot foreign exchange market?Imports of goods and services result in demand for foreign currency in the foreign exchange market. Domestic buyers often want to be pay using domestic currency, while the foreign sellers want to receive payment in their currency. In the process of paying for these imports, domestic currency is exchanged for foreign currency, creating demand for foreign currency. International capital outflows result in a demand for foreign currency in the foreign exchange market. In making investments in foreign financial assets, domestic investors often start with domestic currency and must exchange it for foreign currency before they can buy the foreign assets. The exchange creates demand for foreign currency. Foreign sales of this countrys financial assets that the foreigners had previously acquired, and foreign borrowing from this country are other forms of capital outflow that can create demand for foreign currency2.What are the major types of transactions or activities that result in sdpply of foreign currency in the spot foreign exchange market?Exports of merchandise and services result in supply of foreign currency in the foreign exchange market. Domestic sellers often want to be paid using domestic currency, while the foreign buyers want to pay in their currency. In the process of paying for these exports, foreign currency is exchanged for domestic currency, creating supply of foreign currency. International capital inflows result in a supply of foreign currency in the foreign exchange market. In making investments in domestic financial assets, foreign investors often start with foreign currency and must exchange it for domestic currency before they can buy the domestic assets. The exchange creates a supply of foreign currency. Sales of foreign financial assets that the countrys residents had previously acquired, and borrowing from foreigners by this countrys residents are other forms of capital inflow that can create supply of foreign currency.3. What has happened to the exchange rate value of the dollar in each case ?A. The spot rate goes from $0.50/SFr to $0.51/SFr.BThe spot rate goes from SFr 2/$ to SFr 1.96/$.C. The spot rate goes from $0.010/yen to $0.009/yen.D. The spot rate goes from 100yen/$ to 111 yen/$.A. The value of the dollar decreases. (The SFr increases.)B. The value of the dollar decreases. (This is the same change as in part A.)C. The value of the dollar increases. (The yen decreases.)D. The value of the dollar increases. (This is the same change as in part C.)6. A trader at a U.S. bank believes that the euro will strengthen substantially in exchange rate value during the next hour. How would the trader use the interbank market to attempt to profit from her belief ?The trader would seek out the best quoted spot rate for buying euros with dollars, either through direct contact with traders at other banks or by using the services of a foreign exchange broker. The trader would use the best rate to buy euro spot. Sometime in the next hour or so (or, typically at least by the end of the day), the trader will enter the interbank market again, to obtain the best quoted spot rate for selling euros for dollars. The trader will use the best spot rate to sell her previously acquired euros. If the spot value of the euro has risen during this short time, the trader makes a profit.8.You have access to the following three spot exchange rates:(即期汇率)$ 0.01 / yen$ 0.20 / krone25 yen / kroneYou start with dollars and want to end up with dollars.A. How would engage in arbitrage（套利） to profit from these three rates? What is the profit for each dollar used initially?B. As a result of this arbitrage , what is the pressure on the cross-rate between yen and krone ? What must the value of the cross-rate be to eliminate the opportunity for triangular arbitrage ？A. The cross rate between the yen and the krone is too high (the yen value of the krone is too high) relative to the dollar-foreign currency exchange rates. Thus, in a profitable triangular arbitrage, you want to sell kroner at the high cross rate. The arbitrage will be:Use dollars to buy kroner at $0.20/krone, use these kroner to buy yen at 25 yen/krone, and use the yen to buy dollars at $0.01/yen. For each dollar that you sell initially, you can obtain 5 kroner, these 5 kroner can obtain 125 yen, and the 125 yen can obtain $1.25. The arbitrage profit for each dollar is therefore 25 cents.B. Selling kroner to buy yen puts downward pressure on the cross rate (the yen price of krone). The value of the cross rate must fall to 20 (=0.20/0.01) yen/krone to eliminate the opportunity for triangular arbitrage, assuming that the dollar exchange rates are unchanged.Chapter 43. Explian the nature of the exchange rate risk for each of the following , from the perspective of the U.S. firm or person. In your answer, include whether each is a long or short position in foreign currency.A. A Small U.S. firm sold experimental computer components to a Japanese firm, and it will receive payment of 1 million yen in 60 days. B. An American college student receives a birthday gift of Japanese government bonds worth 10 million yen, and the bonds mature in 60 days. C. A U.S. firm must repay a yen loan, principal plus interest totaling 100 million yen, coming due in 60 daysA. The U.S. firm has an asset position in yenit has a long position in yen. The risk is that the dollar exchange rate value of the yen in 60 days is uncertain. If the yen depreciates, then the firm will receive fewer dollars.B. The student has an asset position in yena long position in yen. The risk is that the dollar exchange rate value of the yen in 60 days is uncertain. If the yen depreciates, then the student will receive fewer dollars.C. The U.S. firm has a liability position in yena short position in yen. The risk is that the dollar exchange rate value of the yen in 60 days is uncertain. If the yen appreciates,then the firm must deliver more dollars to buy the yen to pay off its loan.Chapter 51.“Short-run pressures on market exchange rates result mainly from gradual changes in flows of international trade in goods and services.”Do you agree or disagree ? Why ?Disagree. First, exchange rates can be quite variable in the short run. This much variability does not seem to be consistent wit the gradual changes in supply and demand for foreign currency that would occur as trade flows changed gradually.Second, the volume of trading in the foreign exchange market is much large than the volume of international trade in goods and services. Only a small part of total activity in foreign exchange markets is related to payments for exports and imports. Most is related to international financial flows. International financial positioning and repositioning are likely to be quite changeable over short periods of time, explaining the variability of exchange rates in the short run. 2. The following rates currently exist:Spot exchange rate(即期汇率) :$1.000/euroAnnual interest rate on 180-day euro denominated bonds (180欧元计价券的年利率) :3%Annual interest rate on 180-day U.S dollar denominated bonds (180天美元计价券的年利率):4%Investors currently expect the spot exchange rate to be about $1.005/euro in180 daysA. Show that uncovered interest parity(非抛补利率平价) holds(appromixmately)at these rates.The euro is expected to appreciate at an annual rate of approximately B. What is likely to be the effect on the spot exchange rate(即期汇率) if the interest rate on 180-day dollar-denominated bonds (180天美元计价券的利率)declines to 3 percent? If the euro interest rate and the expected future spot rate are unchanged ,and if uncovered interest parity (抛补利息平价)is reestablished(重建) ,what will the new current spot exchange rate be ? Has the dollar appreciated or depreciated(升值或贬值)?A. (1.005 - 1.000)/1.000)(360/180) = 1%. The expected uncovered interest differential is approximately 1% + 3% - 4% = 0, so uncovered interest parity holds (approximately)B. If the interest rate on 180-day dollar-denominated bonds declines to 3%, the expected uncovered interest differential shifts in favor of investing in euro-denominated bonds. The increased demand for euros in the spot exchange market tends to appreciate the euro. Since ieu=3%, eex =$1.005/euro, EUD=0, e? (1.005-e)/e + (3% - 3%)= 0 e=$1.005/euroWith e increasing, U.S. dollar depreciates5. As a foreign exchange trader, how would you react to each of the following news items as it flashes on your computer screen?a. Mexicos oil reserves prove to be much smaller than touted earlier.b. The Social Credit Party wins the national elections in Canada and promises generous expansion of the supply of money and credit.c. In a surprise vote the Swiss government passes a law that will result in a large increase in the taxation of interest payments from Switzerland to foreigners.a. Sell pesos. Weaker Mexican exports of oil in the future are likely to lower the pesos exchange rate value.b. Sell Canadian dollars .The expansion of money and credit is likely to lower the exchange rate value of the Canadian dollar because Canadian interest rates will decline (in the short run) and Canadian inflation rates are likely to be higher (in the long run).c. Sell Swiss francs. Foreign investor are likely to pull some investment out of Swiss assets (and to invest less in the future), reducing the exchange rate value of the franc.6. Will the law of one price apply better to gold or to Big Macs? Why?The law of one price will hold better for gold. Gold can be traded easily so that any price differences would lead to arbitrage that would tend to push gold prices (stated in a common currency by converting prices using market exchange rates) back close to equality. Big Macs cannot be arbitraged. If price differences exist, there is no arbitrage pressure, so the price differences can persist. The prices of Big Macs (stated in a common currency) vary widely around the world.Chapter 61. What is the difference between a clean float and a managed float?In a clean float, the government allows the exchange rate value of its currency to be determined solely by private (or nonofficial ) supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. The government takes no direct actions to influence exchange rates. In a managed float, the government is willing and sometimes does take direct actions to attempt to influence the exchange rate value of its currency. For instance, the monetary authorities of the country may sometimes intervene in the market, buying or selling foreign currency (in exchange for domestic currency) in an effort to influence the level or trend of the floating exchange rate.2. What is the difference between an adjustable peg and a crawling peg?We often use the term pegged exchange rate to refer to a fixed exchange rate, because fixed rates generally are not fixed forever. An adjustable peg is an exchange rate policy in which the fixed exchange rate value of a currency can be changed from time to time, but usually it is changed rather seldom (for instance, not more than once every several years). A crawling peg is an exchange rate policy in which the fixed exchange rate value of a currency is changed often (for instance, weekly or monthly), sometimes according to indicators such as the difference in inflation rates. 12. The current exchange rate regime is sometimes described as a system of managed floating exchange rates, but with some