财务管理课件(.ppt

Chapter8StockValuation,McGraw-Hill/Irwin,Copyright2013byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,KeyConceptsandSkills,UnderstandhowstockpricesdependonfuturedividendsanddividendgrowthBeabletocomputestockpricesusingthedividendgrowthmodelUnderstandhowcorporatedirectorsareelectedUnderstandhowstockmarketsworkUnderstandhowstockpricesarequoted,8-2,ChapterOutline,CommonStockValuationSomeFeaturesofCommonandPreferredStocksTheStockMarkets,8-3,CashFlowsforStockholders,Ifyoubuyashareofstock,youcanreceivecashintwowaysThecompanypaysdividendsYousellyourshares,eithertoanotherinvestorinthemarketorbacktothecompanyAswithbonds,thepriceofthestockisthepresentvalueoftheseexpectedcashflows,8-4,One-PeriodExample,SupposeyouarethinkingofpurchasingthestockofMooreOil,Inc.Youexpectittopaya$2dividendinoneyear,andyoubelievethatyoucansellthestockfor$14atthattime.Ifyourequireareturnof20%oninvestmentsofthisrisk,whatisthemaximumyouwouldbewillingtopay?ComputethePVoftheexpectedcashflowsPrice=(14+2)/(1.2)=$13.33OrFV=16;I/Y=20;N=1;CPTPV=-13.33,8-5,Two-PeriodExample,Now,whatifyoudecidetoholdthestockfortwoyears?Inadditiontothedividendinoneyear,youexpectadividendof$2.10intwoyearsandastockpriceof$14.70attheendofyear2.Nowhowmuchwouldyoubewillingtopay?PV=2/(1.2)+(2.10+14.70)/(1.2)2=13.33,8-6,Three-PeriodExample,Finally,whatifyoudecidetoholdthestockforthreeyears?Inadditiontothedividendsattheendofyears1and2,youexpecttoreceiveadividendof$2.205attheendofyear3andthestockpriceisexpectedtobe$15.435.Nowhowmuchwouldyoubewillingtopay?PV=2/1.2+2.10/(1.2)2+(2.205+15.435)/(1.2)3=13.33,8-7,DevelopingTheModel,YoucouldcontinuetopushbacktheyearinwhichyouwillsellthestockYouwouldfindthatthepriceofthestockisreallyjustthepresentvalueofallexpectedfuturedividendsSo,howcanweestimateallfuturedividendpayments?,8-8,EstimatingDividends:SpecialCases,ConstantdividendThefirmwillpayaconstantdividendforeverThisislikepreferredstockThepriceiscomputedusingtheperpetuityformulaConstantdividendgrowthThefirmwillincreasethedividendbyaconstantpercenteveryperiodThepriceiscomputedusingthegrowingperpetuitymodelSupernormalgrowthDividendgrowthisnotconsistentinitially,butsettlesdowntoconstantgrowtheventuallyThepriceiscomputedusingamultistagemodel,8-9,ZeroGrowth,Ifdividendsareexpectedatregularintervalsforever,thenthisisaperpetuityandthepresentvalueofexpectedfuturedividendscanbefoundusingtheperpetuityformulaP0=D/RSupposestockisexpectedtopaya$0.50dividendeveryquarterandtherequiredreturnis10%withquarterlycompounding.Whatistheprice?P0=.50/(.1/4)=$20,8-10,DividendGrowthModel,Dividendsareexpectedtogrowataconstantpercentperperiod.P0=D1/(1+R)+D2/(1+R)2+D3/(1+R)3+P0=D0(1+g)/(1+R)+D0(1+g)2/(1+R)2+D0(1+g)3/(1+R)3+Withalittlealgebraandsomeserieswork,thisreducesto:,8-11,DGMExample1,SupposeBigD,Inc.,justpaidadividendof$0.50pershare.Itisexpectedtoincreaseitsdividendby2%peryear.Ifthemarketrequiresareturnof15%onassetsofthisrisk,howmuchshouldthestockbesellingfor?P0=.50(1+.02)/(.15-.02)=$3.92,8-12,DGMExample2,SupposeTBPirates,Inc.,isexpectedtopaya$2dividendinoneyear.Ifthedividendisexpectedtogrowat5%peryearandtherequiredreturnis20%,whatistheprice?P0=2/(.2-.05)=$13.33Whyisntthe$2inthenumeratormultipliedby(1.05)inthisexample?,8-13,StockPriceSensitivitytoDividendGrowth,g,D1=$2;R=20%,8-14,StockPriceSensitivitytoRequiredReturn,R,D1=$2;g=5%,8-15,Example8.3GordonGrowthCompany-I,GordonGrowthCompanyisexpectedtopayadividendof$4nextperiod,anddividendsareexpectedtogrowat6%peryear.Therequiredreturnis16%.Whatisthecurrentprice?P0=4/(.16-.06)=$40Rememberthatwealreadyhavethedividendexpectednextyear,sowedontmultiplythedividendby1+g,8-16,Example8.3GordonGrowthCompany-II,Whatisthepriceexpectedtobeinyear4?P4=D4(1+g)/(Rg)=D5/(Rg)P4=4(1+.06)4/(.16-.06)=50.50Whatistheimpliedreturngiventhechangeinpriceduringthefouryearperiod?50.50=40(1+return)4;return=6%PV=-40;FV=50.50;N=4;CPTI/Y=6%Thepriceisassumedtogrowatthesamerateasthedividends,8-17,NonconstantGrowthExample-I,Supposeafirmisexpectedtoincreasedividendsby20%inoneyearandby15%intwoyears.Afterthat,dividendswillincreaseatarateof5%peryearindefinitely.Ifthelastdividendwas$1andtherequiredreturnis20%,whatisthepriceofthestock?RememberthatwehavetofindthePVofallexpectedfuturedividends.,8-18,NonconstantGrowthExample-II,ComputethedividendsuntilgrowthlevelsoffD1=1(1.2)=$1.20D2=1.20(1.15)=$1.38D3=1.38(1.05)=$1.449FindtheexpectedfuturepriceP2=D3/(Rg)=1.449/(.2-.05)=9.66FindthepresentvalueoftheexpectedfuturecashflowsP0=1.20/(1.2)+(1.38+9.66)/(1.2)2=8.67,8-19,QuickQuizPartI,Whatisthevalueofastockthatisexpectedtopayaconstantdividendof$2peryeariftherequiredreturnis15%?Whatifthecompanystartsincreasingdividendsby3%peryear,beginningwiththenextdividend?Therequiredreturnstaysat15%.,8-20,UsingtheDGMtoFindR,StartwiththeDGM:,8-21,Example:FindingtheRequiredReturn,Supposeafirmsstockissellingfor$10.50.Itjustpaida$1dividend,anddividendsareexpectedtogrowat5%peryear.Whatistherequiredreturn?R=1(1.05)/10.50+.05=15%Whatisthedividendyield?1(1.05)/10.50=10%Whatisthecapitalgainsyield?g=5%,8-22,StockValuationUsingMultiples,AnothercommonvaluationapproachistomultiplyabenchmarkPEratiobyearningspershare(EPS)tocomeupwithastockpricePt=BenchmarkPEratio*EPStThebenchmarkPEratioisoftenanindustryaverageorbasedonacompanysownhistoricalvaluesTheprice-salesratiocanalsobeused,8-23,Example:StockValuationUsingMultiples,Supposeacompanyhadearningspershareof$3overthepastyear.TheindustryaveragePEratiois12.Usethisinformationtovaluethiscompanysstockprice.Pt=12x$3=$36pershare,8-24,Table8.1-StockValuationSummary,8-25,FeaturesofCommonStock,VotingRightsProxyvotingClassesofstockOtherRightsShareproportionallyindeclareddividendsShareproportionallyinremainingassetsduringliquidationPreemptiverightfirstshotatnewstockissuetomaintainproportionalownershipifdesired,8-26,DividendCharacteristics,DividendsarenotaliabilityofthefirmuntiladividendhasbeendeclaredbytheBoardConsequently,afirmcannotgobankruptfornotdeclaringdividendsDividendsandTaxesDividendpaymentsarenotconsideredabusinessexpense;therefore,theyarenottaxdeductibleThetaxationofdividendsreceivedbyindividualsdependsontheholdingperiodDividendsreceivedbycorporationshaveaminimum70%exclusionfromtaxableincome,8-27,FeaturesofPreferredStock,DividendsStateddividendthatmustbepaidbeforedividendscanbepaidtocommonstockholdersDividendsarenotaliabilityofthefirm,andpreferreddividendscanbedeferredindefinitelyMostpreferreddividendsarecumulativeanymissedpreferreddividendshavetobepaidbeforecommondividendscanbepaidPreferredstockgenerallydoesnotcarryvotingrights,8-28,StockMarket,Dealersvs.BrokersNewYorkStockExchange(NYSE)LargeststockmarketintheworldLicenseholders(1,366)CommissionbrokersSpecialistsFloorbrokersFloortradersOperationsFlooractivity,8-29,NASDAQ,Notaphysicalexchangecomputer-basedquotationsystemMultiplemarketmakersElectronicCommunicationsNetworksThreelevelsofinformationLevel1medianquotes,registeredrepresentativesLevel2viewquotes,brokers&dealersLevel3viewandupdatequotes,dealersonlyLargeportionoftechnologystocks,8-30,WorktheWebExample,ElectronicCommunicationsNetworksprovidetradinginNASDAQsecuritiesClickonthewebsurferandvisitInstinet,8-31,Whatinformationisprovidedinthestockquote?ClickonthewebsurfertogotoBloombergforcurrentstockquotes.,ReadingStockQuotes,8-32,QuickQuizPartII,Youobserveastockpriceof$18.75.Youexpect