ANDMANAGINGECONOMICEXPOSURE(跨国公司财务管理-.ppt

1,MultinationalFinancialManagementAlanShapiro7thEditionJ.Wileythesourcesofthefirmsinputs;andfluctuationsintherealexchangeratedelineatethefirmstrueeconomicexposure.,12,PARTIII.IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSURE,III.CASESTUDIESOFECONOMICEXPOSUREA.ASPENSKIINGCOMPANY1.Firmsexchangerateriskaffecteditssalesrevenues.,13,IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSURE,A.ASPENSKIINGCOMPANY(cont)2.Althoughtherewasnotranslationrisk,theglobalmarketwithitsexchangerateriskanditscompetitorsimpactedmarketdemand.,14,IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSURE,B.PETROLEOSMEXICANOS(PEMEX)1.Thefirmsexchangerateriskaffectedcostbutnotrevenues.2.Economicimpacta.Revenues:noneb.Costs:decreasedc.Neteffect:increasedUS$flows,15,IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSURE,C.TOYOTAMOTORCOMPANY1.ExchangerateriskaffectedBOTHrevenuesandcosts.2.Flowbackeffect:previouslyexportedgoodsreturnwithincreaseddomesticcompetition.3.Lowerprofitmarginsdomestically,16,PARTIV.CALCULATINGECONOMICEXPOSURE,IV.Aquantitativeassessmentofeconomicexposuredependsonunderlyingassumptionsconcerning:A.futurecashflows;B.sensitivitytoexchangeratechanges.,17,PARTV.ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,V.NEEDFORAWORKABLEAPPROACHA.RegressionAnalysis1.Variablesa.Independent:changesinparentscashflowsb.Dependent:Averagenominalexchangeratechange.,18,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,B.REGRESSIONEQUATION-approachbasedontheoperationaldefinitionoftheexchangeriskfacedbyaparentoroneofitsaffiliates:-acompanyfacesexchangerisktotheextentthatvariationsinthedollarvalueoftheunitscashflowsarecorrelatedwithvariationsinthenominalexchangerate,19,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,whereCFt=CFt-CFt-1andCFtisthedollarvalueoftotalaffiliate(parent)cashflowsinperiodtEXCHt=EXCHt-EXCHt-1equalstheaveragenominalexchangerateduringperiodtu=arandomerrorterm,20,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,1.Outputmeasures:a.Betacoefficient(b)measurestheassociationofchangesincashflowstoexchangeratechanges.,21,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,b.thehigherthepercentagechangeofcashflowtochangesinexchangerates,thegreatertheeconomicexposure(higherbetavalues).,22,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,VI.SUMMARY:A.Thefocusoftheaccountingprofessiononthebalancesheetimpactofcurrencychangeshasledtoignoringtheimportantimpactonfuturecashflows.,23,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,B.Forfirmsincurringcostsandsellingproductsinforeigncountries,theneteffectofcurrencychangesmaybelessimportantinthelongrun.,24,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,C.Tomeasureexposureproperly,youmustfocusoninflation-adjustedorrealexchangeratesinsteadofnominaloractualexchangerates.,25,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,D.Itisdifficultinpracticetodeterminewhattheactualeconomicimpactofacurrencychangewillbe.,26,PARTVI.MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,I.INTRODUCTIONOperatingexposuremanagementrequireslong-termoperatingadjustments.A.Realv.NominalChanges1.Relativepricechangesleadstomarketingand/orproductionrevisions,27,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,B.ProactiveMarketingandProductionInitiatives1.Marketing:marketselectionproductstrategypricingstrategypromotionalstrategy,28,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,B.ProactiveMarketingandProductionInitiatives(cont)2.Production:productsourcinginputmixplantlocationraisingproductivity,29,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,II.MarketingManagementAdjustmentsA.MarketSelection1.useadvantagetocarveoutmarketshare2.Marketsegmentation,30,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,B.Pricingstrategy:Expectationscritical1.IfHCvaluefalls,exportergainscompetitiveadvantagebyincreasingunitprofitabilityandmarketshare.2.Thehigherpriceelasticityofdemand,themorecurrencyriskthefirmfacesbyproductsubstitution.,31,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,3.FollowingHCdepreciation,localfirmmayhavemuchmorefreedominitspricing.C.PromotionalStrategy,32,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,D.ProductStrategyexchangeratechangesmayalter1.Thetimingofnewproductintroductions,2.Productdeletion,3.Productinnovation.,33,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,III.ProductManagementAdjustmentsproductsourcingandplantlocationaretheprincipalvariablestomanipulate.A.InputmixB.ShiftproductionamongplantsC.PlantlocationD.Raisingproductivity,34,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,IV.PlanningForExchange-RateChangesA.Withbetterplanningandmorecompetitiveoptions,firmscanchangestrategiessubstantiallyB.beforetheimpactofancurrencychangemakesitselffelt.C.Implication:compactionofadjustmentperiodfollowinganexchange-ratechange.,35,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,V.FinancialManagementofExchangeRateRisk:FinancialmanagersRoleinMarketingandProductionA.Providelocalmanagerwithfore-castsofinflationandexchange-ratechanges.B.Identi