石油天然气上下游基金投资风险管理策略.ppt

ProactiveStructuralStrategicChina/GLobalFundRiskManagementChina/Globaloil,gas,housingindustrymarketfundamentalmechanism,risksEarlyWarningOperationsSimulationAnalysis(OSA)中國石油天然氣上下游基金投資風險管理策略,Monetary,Economic,FiscalPolicyImpactonChina/GlobalMacro-economicControl,Oil,Gas,Housingdemand,pricesMechanismandInvestmentRisksSimulation/ForecastsWarrenHuang(黃華南博士),PhD,Founder/CEOOSAGlobalStrategicManagementwh3928,LectureSummaryProactiveStructuralRisksMechanismOperationsSimulationAnalysis,OSAMethodology:Twomasterhandscontrollinglast20yearsGlobalenergy,housing,assetpricebubbleburstMechanism,AllocationFundRisksearlywarning1.China/GlobalCountryRisks:Macroeconomiccontrol,housingbubbleburst,mortgagecrisispolicyimpactoninflation,recession,interestratesanalysis2.CurrencyRisks:Interestrate,tradesurplusimpactonRMB,globalcurrencymarketforcesmechanism,currencycrisisforecasts3.CreditRisks:Oil,gas,China/Foreignplayerscashflow,profits,housingpricebubbleburstimpactoncreditratingandloandefaultsrisk4.OperationalRisks:Allphasesofoil,gas,power,banking,finance,dailytrading,profitperformancerisksreporting,monitoring,simulation.5.MarketRisks:ProactiveVaRpricingforhousing,banking,financeoil,gas,demand,performance,stock,derivativespricesdynamicsmechanismforecast6.Causes,onset,recoveryofdisaster,energy,banking,mortgage,financialcrisis,assetpricesbubble,debt,equities,propertiesNPL7.RisksHedging:Oil,gas,currency,interestratefutures,derivativespricesforecasts,riskshedging.8.CorporateGovernance:Operating,Cost,Financialaccountingdatatracking,assetpricebubbleandscandalscyclesearningwarning9M/A,IPORisks:Jointventures,preandpostM/AandIPOperformance,stockprices,riskstracking.,OSAchallengestheunknownfutures,fightcompetition,maximizeRiskadjustedreturninoil,gas,fundinvestment,Dr.Huangover30yeardevelop,implementedstructuraldynamicrisksandreturnsimulation,Hepioneeredtwomasterhandscontrollingglobaleconomy,finance,capitalmarketassetprices:extensiveinformationknowledgebasedevelopmentOutof1972-2008(dailyWallStreetJournals,BusinessWeek,tradingdata,internetmarketandeconomicanalysts,technicalanalysis,MonteCarlo,RiskMetricstatisticalanalysisfailtotrackassetprices.HeTrainedthousandsTaiwan,Tsinghua,Tunghai,Fudan,PekingUniversityfaculties,students,appliedhisPh.DthesisMoon-landingguidanceandcontroltochallengetheunknownfutureHepatented“ImproveProcessbyOSA”inUSand82countries,1980,publishedthousandsarticlesonUS,TaiwanandChinagovernment,banking,finance,investmentdailynewspapers,andonUSOil&GasJournaljournalpredictedglobaloil,gas,currency,interest,stockfuturespricessince1980HelecturedChina,Taiwan,US15cities(Beijing,Shanghai,Taipei,SanFranciscoSiliconValley)TV,radio,OPECpetroleumministers,executivesChina/globalstrategicinvestmentriskmanagementworkshopsto30millioninvestors,bankingfinance,enterprisesCEO,executivessince1983.Hepredictedyears/monthaheadof1987USstockcrisis,AsianFinancialcrisis1997,USassetbubbleburst2000andcurrentChina/USratehikes,soaringoil,gas,websiteandpredictedonSept2007WallStreetJournalStreetMarketBeat,RealTimeEconomicsblogthatUSratecutscannotstophousingpriceslumpresultedeconomicrecessioncontinueinto2008summerandUS,globalstocks,fund,bearmarketscorrection,CountryRisksOSA:Monetarypolicy,WTOimpactoninflation,GDPgrowth貨幣財經政策入世對中外宏觀調控影響,Excessivemoneysupply,ratecuts,DFIresultedsoaringcommodity,assetpricesandfallingUSdollarpushinflationandGDPhigher,export,Monetarypolicy,Foreigndirectinvestment,BusinessdemandFixedinvestment,Consumerdemand,Macro-economicinflationandGDPgrowth,currency,Commodityprices,Monetary,economic,fiscalpolicyimpactonGlobal/Chinamacro-economiccontrolanddailyoil,gas,capitalmarketassetpricessince1983,Dr.Huangstructuraldynamicmodelsaccuratelypredicteconomic,energycrisissince1980onAmericanInstitute.ChemicalEngineeringWashingtonDC,WorldCongress1986,TokyoHeaccuratelypredictedinJuly10,1994toWallStreetJournalandWuhanGuotai,WanguoCEOthatShanghaiAindexwillsoaredto800from333inAug.1994.(WSJpublishedlateJulyChinaBsharerebound,ShanghaiAreboundto820inAug-Oct,1994)HewasinvitedbyWanguo,GuotaiandbankingCEOtoofferlecturetothousandsinvestors,traders,moneymanagerpredictedShanghaiAwillbetraded600-800during1994-1996duetomacro-economiccontrol,resultspublishedonWuhansecuritiesnewsOct.31,andBeijinFinancialTimes1994HeaccuratelypredictedinWuhanstockinformationjournalFeb.1995thatShanghaiAwillreboundfrom540to800.ItdidonMay18soaredfrom590to920andplungedto580inthreedays,recommendedbuyShanghaiPetrochemicalatonedollarsoaredto8inAug.HeaccuratelypredictedJune20,1995onBeijinCentralPeoplesradioonehourinterview,andFinancialTimes,EconomicDailynews,CommercialTimesthatShanghaiAwillsoarfrom600to800inAug.1995.PredictedonWuhansecuritiesnewsMarch3,1996,thatChinaPeoplesBankwillcutinterestrate,stockmarketgotobullmarkets,ShanghaiAbreak1600.LecturedShanghaiEasternradioandShanghaistockexchange,Dec.16,1996topredictShanghaiAwillreboundfrom1000to1700in1997after10%pricelimit.andtoBeijingPeoplesBankfinancestaffJuly2001Chinastockplungeto1500from2200.PredictedNov2003onEuro-eventsChinafinance,capitalmarketconferencethatoil,commodity,metalpricesmakingnewhigh,soaringinflationleadtoUS,Chinaratehikes2004summer,stockpricesplungeandhousing,stockspricebubbles2007bubbleburst,China/GlobalEconomic,Enterprisesreform,privatizationMBOandIPOPricesMechanism,Privatization,boardmembersorganization,debtrestructuring.Maximizecorporate/plantwidecost,financialaccountingtracking,operatingprofitmarginthroughcostreductionandproducts,marketinnovationdevelop,implementedbygoal,mission,performanceorientedstrategic(topmanagement),andexecutiveOperationsSimulationAnalysisteamsmaximizeChina,USoil,gascorporateperformancesandIPOstockpricesinMBO/IPOprices=F(listedmarketinvestorsentiment,andcorporateprofitmargin)=F(Shanghai/Shenzhenindex,corporateprofitmargin)Chinaoil/gasADRsharesprices(SINOPEC,PetroChina,CNOOCIPOaftermarketprices=F(Chinamarketinvestorsentiment,USmarketinvestorsentiment,andcorporateprofitmargin)=F(DowJonesindex,Shanghai/Shenzhenindex,corporateprofitmargin),ProactivestructuralChina/GlobalInflation,interestrateRisks,Government,corporatebondyieldPriceMechanismsimulation,Soaringasset,commodityprices,fallingcurrencyexcessivemoneysupplyledtocontinuedChina/USinflation,credittighteningledtorisinginterestratesandbondyields,Inflationrates,Interestratesandbondyield,Consumerspending,currency,oil,commodity,assetprices,Moneysupplygrowth,currency,ProactiveStructuralglobalcurrencyandRMBmarketforcesrisksmechanismsimulation,WWW,UStradedeficit,China/countrytradesurplus/deficit,DailyUSdollar,RMBglobalexchangeratesfuturesprices,InterestratespreadbetweenUSandyours,IntegratingintoBlack-Scholeforderivativespriceshedging,ProactiveStructuralChina/Globalhousingprices,bubbles,wealthrisksmechanismsimulation,Housingpricesandheating,appliancesdemandarefueledbymoneysupply,excessivecredit,stockmarketswealthgain,predictedJune2007PekingUniv,thatChinahousingandstockpricescorrectionlate2007,Moneysupplygrowth,Mortgageinterestrate,Housingpricesbubble,wealthHousingstockpricessimulation,Stockmarketwealth,Stockindexchanges,MBScreditderivatives,Homeheatingdemand,prices,Homeappliancesdemand,ProactiveStructuralMarketRisks:Global/ChinaStockindicespricesfuturesmarketmechanismsimulation,MoneysupplygrowthConsumerspending,Interestrate/inflationrate,ChinaShanghai/Shenzhen300,A,B,Henseng,H-Share,Nikkei,TaiwanIndex,SingaporeSTHstockindex,Seoulfutures,Investorssentiment,tradingvolume,USinvestorsentiment,NYDowJones/Nasdaqstockindex,IntegrateintoBlack-ScholeForderivativesprices,hedging,currency,ProactiveStructuralChina/Globalcoal,oil,gas,freight,powerdemand,pricesstockpricesmechanismsimulation,Chinaoil,gasdownstreamarewellpositioned,fullyintegratedfollowDr.Huang1991speechtoSINOPEC,Beijinonglobalization,integrationstrategyCNOOC,SINOPEC,PetroChinaandcoalstockpricesskyatrocketing,PredictedPekinguniv.2007thatFedratecutsdriveoilpriceover100,2008,Currency,Coal,crudeoil,heatingoil,gasoline,futures,petrochemical,plasticspricesProfitmargin,stockssimulation,Gasoline,heatingoil,petrochemicalfeedstockPrices,costs,ConsumerBusinessspending,Powerplantrate,land,oceanfreightcost,Coal,gas,LNGdemand,price,ProactiveStructuralChina/GlobalBanking,FinanceEnterprisesReformand,merger/acquisitionperformanceriskssimulation,Cutpre-merger,jointventurecostsby50%inpre-mergerspeculationStockpricesplungedmorethan50-90%gainedinpre-mergerspeculationpostmergerintegration,profitcreationperformances,Investorsentiments,Postmergerprofitmargin,PreandpostmergerprofitmarginPerformanceimprovementandstockPricessimulation,Postmergerintegrationperformance,Pre-merger,reformgoalsettingtargeting,ProactiveStructuralChina/Globalcorporategovernance,assetbubbleburstscandalsmechanismrisksearlywarningsimulation,TrackingcostandfinancialaccountingsystemsandinvestorssentimentspeculationbubblesforscandalsearlywarninginUSEnronandChinaGuanxia,STstocksandChinaAviationOilandpensionfundinvestmentinhousingmarketscandals2004-2007,Productionandsalestracking,financialaccountingearningtrackingBalancesheetandoff-balancesheetDerivatives,IPO,mergeractivitiestracking,StrategicandexecutioncorporategovernanceOSAteamstrackingCostandfinancialaccountingstockprices,Costaccountingbubbletracking,Investorsentiments,housing,oil,commodityassetbubble,stockindex,ProactiveStructuralDynamicSimulationofCauses,onset,recoveryofChina/GlobalMortgage,credit,financial,currencyenergybanking,bubbleburstcrisisandNPLloan,creditriskmechanism,Excessivemoneysupplyandhotmoneyinflowresultedsoaringinflation,ratehikes,tradedeficitandcurrencyplunge,ratehikeandstocks,propertiespricesplungeandNPLloanPredictedSept2007onWallStreetMarketBeatthatFedratecutscannotstophousingpriceslump,creditcrisisandrecession2008,StrongExportgrowth,ExcessforeigncapitalInflow,currencyappreciation,Exportdecline,soaringtradedeficitandcurrencyplunge,RunawayinflationandinterestratehikeStockpricesandconsumerdemandplunge,leadingtofinancial,currency,housingbubbleburstdefault,crisis,recoverywillbeginuntiltradesurplusAndcurrencyrebound,interestratecuts,ExcessmoneysupplyConsumerspending,NPLMortgageDefault,ProactiveStructuralstrategicChina/Globalprojectfinancingriskmanagementearlywarning,TwomasterhandscontrollingChinaandglobaleconomyandindustrialsectors,corporateprofitabilityandstockpricesforfinancemanagersassetallocation,wealthmanagementinvestmentstrategy,riskcontrolavoidchasingthemarketstrilliondollarsloss,Moneysupply,interestrates,Currencyexchangerates,Investorssentiments,Oil,gas,LNG/downstreamassetpricesbubble,profitmarginsimulation,DomesticandglobalmarketpricesAndriskssimulation,Conclusionsandrecommendations,OSAProactiveStructuralChina/globalcapitalmarketfundamentalsmechanismsimulatorspredicted6monthaheadthemonetary,economic,fiscalpolicyimpactonmacro-economic,capitalmarketassetpricestoachievesustainableprofitgrowthsystemicandspecificrisks,earlywarningsupportingstrategicChinabanking,finance,enterprises,capitalmarketreforminnovationWhichavoidedtrilliondollarmarketlossduetocurrentbettingonthewrongsideofinvestment,chasingthemarkets,speculationontechnicalcharts,market,business,economicdata.ItprovideQFII,QDIIrational,reliabledecisioninvestmentandriskmanagementdecisiontoolsinasstallocation,wealthmanagementThousandstrategicstructuraldynamicOSAmodelstrackingChinaandglobaleconomicanddailycapitalmarketassetpricessupportingChinaandglobalcapitalmarketdecisionmakersthroughin-houseworkshops,corporatemembershipsandfullbanking,finance,enterprisesreform,changemanagementOSAprogram,ConclusionsandRecommendation,ProactiveOSAsimulatorspredictedyearsto6monthaheadthemonetary,economic,fiscalpolicy,impactonmacro-economiccontrol,capitalmarketassetinterestrate,currency,oil,gas,downstreamdemand,pricestoachievesustain