风险评估及管理.ppt

第十一讲国家风险评估及管理,ChapterObjectivesToidentifythecommonfactorsusedbyMNCstomeasureacountryspoliticalriskandfinancialrisk;Toexplainthetechniquesusedtomeasurecountryrisk;andToexplainhowMNCsusetheassessmentofcountryriskwhenmakingfinancialdecisions.,WhyCountryRiskAnalysisIsImportant,.DefinitionofPoliticalriskistheriskthatthebusinessenvironmentinahostcountrywillchangeunexpectedlyoristhepotentiallyadverseimpactofacountrysenvironmentonanMNCscashflows(国家风险指东道国的商业环境发生非预期的变化，从而对跨国公司的价值产生影响。）2.SomeAdverseImpacts:a.Aterroristattackb.Amajorlaborstrikeinanindustryc.Apoliticalcrisisduetoascandalwithinacountryd.Concernaboutacountrysbankingsystemthatmaycauseamajoroutflowoffundse.Theimpositionoftraderestrictionsonimports,.Countryriskanalysiscanbeused:tomonitorcountrieswheretheMNCiscurrentlydoingbusiness;asascreeningdevicetoavoidconductingbusinessincountrieswithexcessiverisk;andtoreviseitsinvestmentorfinancingdecisionsinlightofrecentevents.,WhyCountryRiskAnalysisIsImportant,thecompaniesthatassesscountryrisk.,Politicalrisk（政治风险）istheriskthatasovereignhostgovernmentwillunexpectedlychangetherulesofthegameunderwhichbusinessesoperatePoliticalrisksarisebecauseofunexpectedchangesinthepoliticalenvironmentwithinahostcountryorintherelationshipofahostcountrytoanothercountry.Financialrisk（财务风险）refersmoregenerallytounexpectedeventsinacountrysfinancial,economic,orbusinesslifeFinancialriskisdeterminedbyahostoffinancialandeconomicfactors,someofwhicharerelatedtolocalpoliticalrisk.,PoliticalRiskFactors,A.AttitudeofconsumersinthehostcountrySomeconsumersareveryloyaltolocallymanufacturedproducts.B.ActionsofhostgovernmentThehostgovernmentmayimposespecialrequirementsortaxes,restrictfundtransfers,andsubsidizelocalfirms.MNCscanalsobehurtbyalackofrestrictions,suchasfailuretoenforcecopyrightlaws.,PoliticalRiskFactors,C.BlockageofFundTransfersFundsthatareblockedmaynotbeoptimallyused.Iffundtransfersareblocked,subsidiarieswillhavetoundertakeprojectsthatmaynotbeoptimalfortheMNC.D.CurrencyInconvertibilityTheMNCparentmayneedtoexchangeearningsforgoodsiftheforeigncurrencycannotbechangedintoothercurrencies,E.WarInternalandexternalbattles,oreventhethreatofwar,canhavedevastatingeffects.The2003WarinIraqF.Bureaucracy(官僚）Bureaucracycancomplicatebusinesses.G.Corruption（腐败）Corruptioncanincreasethecostofconductingbusinessorreducerevenue.,PoliticalRiskFactors,CorruptionPerceptionsIndex,Theindex,whichispublishedbyTransparencyInternational,reflectsthedegreetowhichcorruptionisperceivedtoexistamongpublicofficialsandpoliticians.In2001,91countriesarerankedonacleanscoreof10.,RankCountryScore1Finland9.93NewZealand9.44Singapore9.27Canada8.913U.K.8.314HongKong7.916Israel7.616U.S.A.7.618Chile7.520Germany7.421Japan7.1,RankCountryScore23France6.726Botswana6.027Taiwan5.938SouthAfrica4.842SouthKorea4.246Brazil4.051Mexico3.757Argentina3.557China3.579Russia2.388Indonesia1.9,CorruptionIndexRatingsforSelectedCountries,Maximumrating=10.Highratingsindicatelowcorruption.,FindoutmoreaboutTransparencyInternationalandtheCorruptionPerceptionsIndexbyvisiting/documents/cpi/2001/cpi2001.html.,OnlineApplication,FinancialRiskFactors,A.CurrentandPotentialStateoftheCountrysEconomyArecessioncanseverelyreducedemand.FinancialdistresscanalsocausethegovernmenttorestrictMNCoperations.B.IndicatorsofEconomicGrowthAcountryseconomicgrowthisdependentonseveralfinancialfactors-interestrates,exchangerates,inflation,etc.,Examplesofpoliticalrisks,Expropriationrisk（征用风险）AssetshavebeenexpropriatedafterrevolutionsinIranandChile.Disruptionsinoperations（经营中断风险）-changesinlawsorregulations.muchmorecommonthanexpropriationandcanhappeneveninpeacetime.Protectionism（贸易保护主义风险）-e.g.,“buyAmerican.”Protectionismcanaffectlocalconsumption.Blockedfunds（资金转移风险）-fundsthatcannotbeimmediatelyremittedtotheparentcompany.Lossofintellectualpropertyrights（知识产权风险）-particularlyproblematicindevelopingandtransitionaleconomiessuchasChinaandtheformerstatesoftheSovietUnion.,Examplesoffinancialrisks,CurrencyriskInterestrateriskInflationriskUnexpectedchangesinthecurrentaccountbalanceUnexpectedchangesinthebalanceoftradePoliticalRiskServicesInternationalCountryRiskGuide（国际国家风险指南）includesthefollowingassessmentsintheirfinancialriskindex.LoandefaultsorloanrestructuringsPaymentdelaysCancellationsofcontractsbyahostgovernmentLossesfromexchangecontrolsExpropriationofprivateinvestments,Whatarethepoliticalandfinancialoutlookforvariouscountries?,OnlineApplication,ConsulttheCountryCommercialGuidespreparedbyembassystaffat/website/ccg.nsf/ccghomepage?openform.,RefertotheCIAsWorldFactbookat/.,Visit,TypesofCountryRiskAssessment,.MacroassessmentofCountryRiskMacrorisksaffectallfirmsinahostcountry(指在东道国整个国家范围内发生的影响到所有企业的风险，如东道国的财政和货币政策、银行系统、税率、资本管制、汇率等的突然变化。）a.CharacteristicsoftheCountry:1.)Politicalfactors2.)Financialfactorsb.UncertaintySurroundingaMacroassessment2.MicroassessmentofCountryRiskMicrorisksspecifictoanindustry,firmorprojectinacountry（指仅对某一特定行业或企业产生影响的风险，如移民政策的突然改变对大量使用外来劳动力的企业造成的影响。）Theoverallassessmentthusconsistsofmacropoliticalrisk,macrofinancialrisk,micropoliticalrisk,andmicrofinancialrisk.,Assessmentsofcountryrisks,BankofAmericaBusinessEnvironmentRiskIntelligenceControlRisksInformationServicesDunandBradstreetEconomistIntelligenceUnitEuromoneyInstitutionalInvestorMoodysInvestorServicesOrgforEconCo-operationandDevelopmentPoliticalRiskServicesStandardandPoors,Countryrisks,AfricaAsiaEuropeMidEastAmericasA1AustraliaSwitzerlandCanadaUKA2BotswanaHKJapanGermanyKuwaitUSAS.KoreaItalyUAEA3MauritiusChinaCyprusIsraelChileNamibiaThailandCzechRepTrinidadA4EgyptIndiaLatviaSaudiMexicoS.AfricaPhilippinesPolandArabiaPanamaBAlgeriaBangladeshSlovakiaEgyptBrazilPeruUgandaSriLankaRussiaJordanVenezuelaCCongoIndonesiaAzerbaijanIranSyriaHaitiKenyaVietnamRomaniaTurkeyJamaicaDNigeriaAfghanistanAlbaniaIraqArgentinaSudanN.KoreaUkraineCubaZimbabwePakistanYugoslaviaEcuador,TechniquesofAssessingCountryRisk,Achecklistapproach（清单法）involvesratingandweightingalltheidentifiedfactors,andthenconsolidatingtheratesandweightstoproduceanoverallassessment.TheDelphitechnique（德尔菲法）involvescollectingvariousindependentopinionsandthenaveragingandmeasuringthedispersionofthoseopinions.,TechniquesofAssessingCountryRisk,Quantitativeanalysis（定量分析法）techniqueslikeregressionanalysiscanbeappliedtohistoricaldatatoassessthesensitivityofabusinesstovariousriskfactors.Inspectionvisits（参观视察法）involvetravelingtoacountryandmeetingwithgovernmentofficials,firmexecutives,and/orconsumerstoclarifyuncertainties.,Often,firmsuseavarietyoftechniquesformakingcountryriskassessments.Forexample,theymayusethechecklistapproachtodevelopanoverallcountryriskrating,andsomeoftheothertechniquestoassignratingstothefactors.例如，国际国家风险指南（ICRG），设置了一个加权平均指数来反映国家风险，该指数由50%的政治风险指标、25%的金融风险指标和25%的经济风险指标构成。,TechniquesofAssessingCountryRisk,MeasuringCountryRisk,CougarCo.:DeterminingtheOverallCountryRiskRating,CougarCo.:DerivationoftheOverallCountryRiskRating,注意：Theproceduresforquantifyingcountryriskwillvarywiththeassessor,thecountrybeingassessed,aswellasthetypeofoperationsbeingplanned.Firmsusecountryriskratingswhenscreeningpotentialprojects,andwhenmonitoringexistingprojects.,MeasuringCountryRisk,AdjustmentoftheDiscountRateThehighertheperceivedrisk,thehigherthediscountratethatshouldbeappliedtotheprojectscashflows.AdjustmentoftheEstimatedCashFlowsByestimatinghowthecashflowscouldbeaffectedbyeachformofrisk,theMNCcandeterminetheprobabilitydistributionofthenetpresentvalueoftheproject.,IncorporatingCountryRiskinCapitalBudgeting,ImpactofCountryRiskonanMNCsValue,Strategiesformanagingcountryrisk,1.NegotiatetheenvironmentwiththehostcountrypriortoinvestmentTheinvestmentenvironmentThefinancialenvironment2.Structureforeignoperationstominimizecountryriskwhilemaximizingreturn3.Obtainpoliticalriskissurance,Strategiesformanagingcountryrisk,Negotiatetheenvironmentwiththehostcountrypriortoinvestment（与环境协调配合）TheInvestmentEnvironmentcanbeagreedtoinanInvestmentagreementthatspecifiestherightsandobligationsoftheparties:Taxes(e.g.,duties,tariffs,taxholidays)Laborissues(e.g.,useofexpatriatemanagers)Concessions(e.g.,privilegedaccesstorestrictedmarkets)Obligations(e.g.,tie-inprojects)Restrictions(e.g.,onimportsorexportstoothermarkets)ProvisionsforplannedinvestmentdivestiturePerformanceassurancesonthepartofthehostgovernmentRemediesagainstdelayorexpropriationProvisionsandvenuesforinternationalarbitrationofdisputes,Strategiesformanagingcountryrisk,NegotiatetheenvironmentwiththehostcountrypriortoinvestmentTheFinancialEnvironment:Cashflowremittance(managementfees,royalties,loanrepayments,dividends,transferpricing)Accesstocapitalmarketsinthehostcountry,includinganyownershiprestrictionsPossibilityofsubsidizedfinancingfromthehostgovernmentCorporategovernanceenvironmentRemediesincaseofcorporatenonperformanceorgovernmentdefault,includingprovisionsandvenuesfortheinternationalarbitrationofdisputes,StructureforeignoperationstominimizeriskwhilemaximizingreturnLimitthescopeoftechnologytransfertoforeignaffiliatestoincludeonlynon-essentialpartsoftheproductionprocessLimitdependenceonanysinglepartnerEnlistlocalpartnersUsemorestringentinvestmentcriteriaPlanfordisasterrecovery,Strategiesformanagingcountryrisk,ReducingExposuretoHostGovernmentTakeovers,ThebenefitsofDFIcanbeoffsetbycountryrisk,themostsevereofwhichisahostgovernmenttakeover.Toreducethechanceofatakeoverbythehostgovernment,firmsoftenusethefollowingstrategies:UseaShort-TermHorizonThistechniqueconcentratesonrecoveringcashflowquickly.,ReducingExposuretoHostGovernmentTakeovers,RelyonUniqueSuppliesorTechnologyInthisway,thehostgovernmentwillnotbeabletotakeoverandoperatethesubsidiarysuccessfully.HireLocalLabor聘请本地劳工Thelocalemployeescanapplypressureontheirgovernment.,BorrowLocalFundsThelocalbankscanapplypressureontheirgovernment.PurchaseInsuranceInvestmentguaranteeprogramsofferedbythehomecountry母国,hostcountry,oraninternationalagencyinsuretosomeextentvariousformsofcountryrisk.,ReducingExposuretoHostGovernmentTakeovers,Politicalriskinsurance,InsurablepoliticalrisksincludeExpropriation（征用）duetowarrevolutioninsurrection暴动civildisturbance内乱terrorismRepatriationrestrictions遣返限制,Politicalriskinsurers,GovernmentexportcreditagenciesU.S.OverseasPrivateInvestmentCorporationU.K.ExportCreditsGuaranteeDepartmentInternationalWorldBankMultilateralInvestmentGuaranteeAgencyPrivateLloydsofLondonAmericanI