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            HUMANRESOURCEPLANNING,版权所有吴三清博士,OBJECTIVES,DiscusstheimportanceofHRplanning.ExplaintherelationshipbetweenstrategicHRMandHRplanning.ExaminesomekeyenvironmentalinfluencesonHRplanning.DiscussthebasicapproachestoHRplanning.DescribethewaysofforecastingHRrequirementsandavailability.DiscusstherequirementsforeffectiveHRplanning.,Ifyoudontwanttoplanforsuccess,whatrightdoyouhavetoworryaboutnon-success?Ifyourenotplanningwhereyouwanttobe,whatreasonorexcusedoyouhaveforworryingaboutbeingnowhere?TOMHOPKINS,Americansalestrainer,motivatorandauthor.Plansgetyouintothingsbutyougottoworkyourwayout.WILLROGERS(1879-1935),Americanactor,performerandhumorist.,IMPORTANCEOFHUMANRESOURCEPLANNING,ThepurposeofHRplanningistoensurethatapredeterminednumberofpersonswiththecorrectskillsareavailableataspecifiedtimeinthefuture.HRplanningsystematicallyidentifieswhatmustbedonetoguaranteetheavailabilityofthehumanresourcesneededbyanorganisationtomeetitsstrategicbusinessobjectives.HRplanningcannotbeundertakeninisolation.Itmustbelinkedtotheorganisationsoverallbusinessstrategy.,STRATEGICHUMANRESOURCEMANAGEMENTANDHUMANRESOURCEPLANNING,Aspartofthestrategicplanningprocess,HRplanningmustconsidertheenvironmentalinfluencesonanorganisation,itsobjectives,culture,structureandHRM.HRplanningmustreflecttheenvironmentaltrendsandissuesthataffectanorganisationsmanagementofitshumanresources.Governmentregulationsrelatingtoconditionsofemployment,EEO,industrialrelationsandoccupationalhealthandsafety,forexample,mustbeintegratedwithanorganisationsHRMstrategies.Otherexamplesincludedemographicchanges,thecasualisationoftheworkforce,employeeliteracy,skillshortages,acquisitions,mergersanddivestures,deregulation,flexibleworkschedules,telecommutingandoutsourcing.,APPROACHESTOHUMANRESOURCEPLANNING,THEQUANTITATIVEAPPROACHThequantitativeapproachseesemployeesasnumericalentitiesandgroupsthemaccordingtoage,sex,experience,skills,qualification,joblevel,pay,performanceratingorsomeothermeansofclassification.ThefocusisonforecastingHRshortages,surplusesandcareerblockages;itsaimistoreconcilethesupplyanddemandforhumanresourcesgiventheorganizationsobjectives.,TrendProjection,Trendprojectionortimeseriesanalysispredictionsworkbyprojectingtrendsofthepastandpresentintothefuture.Thistechniqueisbasedontheassumptionthatthefuturewillbeacontinuationofthepast.,EconometricModelling,Econometricmodellingandmultiplepredictivetechniquesinvolvebuildingcomplexcomputermodelstosimulatefutureeventsbasedonprobabilitiesandmultipleassumptions.,THEQUALITATIVEAPPROACH,ThequalitativeapproachtoHRplanningusesexpertopinion(usuallyalinemanager)topredictthefuture(forexample,themarketingmanagerwillbeaskedtoestimatethefuturepersonnelrequirementsforthemarketingdepartment).Thefocusisonevaluationsofemployeeperformanceandcapacityforpromotionaswellasmanagementandcareerdevelopment,DelphiTechnique,ArefinementonthisbasicapproachistheDelphitechnique:apanelofexpertssuchaskeylinemanagersmakeindependentanonymouspredictionsinanswertoquestionsrelatingtoHRplanning.TheresponsesareanalysedbytheHRdepartmentandtheconfidentialresultsarefedbacktotheexpertsalongwithanotherseriesofquestions.Themanagersrevisetheiroriginalestimatesinlightofthisnewinformation.Thisprocessisrepeateduntilaconsensusforecastisobtained.,FORECASTINGHUMANRESOURCEAVAILABILITY,OncetheHRmanagerhasestimatedtheHRneedsoftheorganisation,thenextchallengeistofilltheprojectedvacancies.Presentemployeeswhocanbepromoted,transferred,demotedordevelopedmakeuptheinternalsupply.Constraintsmayapplyontheuseofbothinternalandexternallaboursupplies(forexample,apromotionfromwithinpolicy,unionrestrictions,managementpreferenceandgovernmentregulations).,FORECASTINGTHESUPPLYOFINTERNALHUMANRESOURCES,TurnoveranalysisAdetailedanalysisofwhypeopleleavetheorganisationisessentialifmeaningfulinformationistobeobtained.Labourturnoverratesfrompastyearsarethebestsourceofthisinformationformostorganisation.Turnoverforeachjobclassificationanddepartmentshouldalsobecalculatedbecauseturnovercanvarydramaticallyamongvariousworkfunctionsanddepartments.,SkillsInventory,ThisconsolidatesbasicinformationonallemployeeswithintheorganisationandpermitstheHRmanagerto:identifyqualifiedemployeesfordifferentjobsdeterminewhichskillsarepresentorlackingintheorganisationassesslongertermrecruitment,selectionandtraininganddevelopmentrequirements.Skillsinventoriescanbequitesimpleandmanuallykept,ordetailedandmaintainedaspartofanintegratedHRinformationsystem(HRIS).,ReplacementChartsReplacementchartssummarisethisinformationinvisualformforkeymanagerssotheycaneasilyidentifyboththepresentincumbentsandpotentialreplacements(orlackof)forgivenpositions.MarkovAnalysisThisisamathematicaltechniqueusedtoforecasttheavailabilityofinternaljobcandidates.Theunderlyingassumptionisthatthemovementofpersonnelamongvariousjobclassificationscanbepredictedfrompastmovements.,SUCCESSIONPLANNINGSuccessionplanningisconcernedwiththefillingofmanagementvacancies.Itstressesthedevelopmentofhighpotentialemployeesandtakesalong-termviewoftheorganisationsHRneeds.TheHRmanagersroleistoensurethatsuccessionplanningprovidestheorganisationsfuturemanagerswiththenecessarypreparationtosuccessfullyfillpotentialvacancies.Thismeanshavinganeffectiveperformanceappraisalsystem,needs-orientatedtraininganddevelopmentprograms,andacorporateculturewhichfostersindividualgrowthandpromotionfromwithin.,FORECASTINGTHEAVAILABILITYOFEXTERNALHUMANRESOURCES,CasualisationoftheworkforceInAustralia,24percentofallemployeesarenowcasualworkers.InternationalEmployeesCompaniesareincreasinglyseekingemployeesoutsidetheirdomesticmarket.Technologicaladvancesincommunicationandincreasedlabourmobilityhavefacilitatedinternationalisationofbusinesses.,Outsourcing,Bystrategicallyoutsourcingandemphasisingacompanyscorecompetencies,argueQuinnandHilmer,managerscanleveragetheirfirmsskillsandresourcesforincreasedcompetitiveness.Thereasonsfororganisationschoosingtooutsourceinclude:increasedfocusoncorebusinesscostandqualityaccesstoimprovedtechnologyeliminationofunionpro 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