CH09StocksandTheirValuation(财务管理,英文版).ppt

,CHAPTER9StocksandTheirValuation,FeaturesofcommonstockDeterminingcommonstockvaluesEfficientmarketsPreferredstock,Representsownership.Ownershipimpliescontrol.Stockholderselectdirectors.Directorselectmanagement.Managementsgoal:Maximizestockprice.,FactsaboutCommonStock,Social/EthicalQuestion,Shouldmanagementbeequallyconcernedaboutemployees,customers,suppliers,“thepublic,”orjustthestockholders?Inenterpriseeconomy,workforstockholderssubjecttoconstraints(environmental,fairhiring,etc.)andcompetition.,Classifiedstockhasspecialprovisions.Couldclassifyexistingstockasfoundersshares,withvotingrightsbutdividendrestrictions.Newsharesmightbecalled“ClassA”shares,withvotingrestrictionsbutfulldividendrights.,Whatsclassifiedstock?Howmightclassifiedstockbeused?,Whenisastocksaleaninitialpublicoffering(IPO)?,Afirm“goespublic”throughanIPOwhenthestockisfirstofferedtothepublic.,AverageInitialReturnsonIPOsinVariousCountries,Malaysia,100%75%50%25%,Brazil,Portugal,Japan,Sweden,UnitedStates,Canada,DividendgrowthmodelFreecashflowmethodUsingthemultiplesofcomparablefirms,DifferentApproachesforValuingCommonStock,Onewhosedividendsareexpectedtogrowforeverataconstantrate,g.,StockValue=PVofDividends,Whatisaconstantgrowthstock?,ForaConstantGrowthStock,D1=D0(1+g)1D2=D0(1+g)2Dt=Dt(1+g)t,P0=.,Ifgisconstant,then:,D0(1+g)ks-g,D1ks-g,$,0.25,Years(t),0,Whathappensifgks?,Ifksgand(2)gisexpectedtobeconstantforever.,Assumebeta=1.2,kRF=7%,andkM=12%.Whatistherequiredrateofreturnonthefirmsstock?,ks=kRF+(kMkRF)bFirm=7%+(12%7%)(1.2)=13%.,UsetheSMLtocalculateks:,D0was$2.00andgisaconstant6%.Findtheexpecteddividendsforthenext3years,andtheirPVs.ks=13%.,0,1,2.247,2,2.382,3,g=6%,1.8761,1.7599,D0=2.00,1.6509,13%,2.12,=,Whatsthestocksmarketvalue?D0=2.00,ks=13%,g=6%.,Constantgrowthmodel:,P0=,D1,ksg0.130.06,$2.12,$2.12,0.07,$30.29.,D1willhavebeenpaid,soexpecteddividendsareD2,D3,D4andsoon.Thus,CouldalsofindP1asfollows:,ksg0.130.06,P1=,Whatisthestocksmarketvalueoneyearfromnow,P1?,D2,$2.247,=$32.10.,P1=P0(1.06)=$32.10.,Findtheexpecteddividendyield,capitalgainsyield,andtotalreturnduringthefirstyear.,Dividendyld=,Capgainsyld=,Totalreturn=7.0%+6.0%=13.0%.,D1,P0,P1P0,P0,$30.29,$2.12,7.0%.,$32.10$30.29,$30.29,=6.0%.,Rearrangemodeltorateofreturnform:,Then,ks=$2.12/$30.29+0.06=0.07+0.06=13%.,P0=$15.38.,WhatwouldP0beifg=0?,Thedividendstreamwouldbeaperpetuity.,2.00,2.00,2.00,0,1,2,3,13%,.,PMTk,$2.000.13,Cannolongeruseconstantgrowthmodel.However,growthbecomesconstantafter3years.,Ifwehavesupernormalgrowthof30%for3years,thenalong-runconstantg=6%,whatisP0?kisstill13%.,Nonconstantgrowthfollowedbyconstantgrowth:,0,2.301,2.647,3.045,46.116,1,2,3,4,ks=13%,54.109=P0,g=30%,g=30%,g=30%,g=6%,D0=2.002.6003.3804.3944.658,$,.,.,.,$66.54,P,3,4.658,13,0,06,=,-,=,0,.,Whatistheexpecteddividendyieldandcapitalgainsyieldatt=0?Att=4?,Div.yield0=4.81%.,Cap.gain0=13.00%4.81%=8.19%.,$2.60$54.11,Duringnonconstantgrowth,D/Pandcapitalgainsyieldarenotconstant,andcapitalgainsyieldislessthang.Aftert=3,g=constant=6%=capitalgainsyield;k=13%;soD/P=13%6%=7%.,25.72,Supposeg=0fort=1to3,andthengisaconstant6%.WhatisP0?,0,1.77,1.57,1.39,20.99,1,2,3,4,ks=13%,g=0%,g=0%,g=0%,g=6%,2.002.002.002.002.12,.,$,P,3,2.12,0,07,30.29.,=,=,.,t=3:Nowhaveconstantgrowthwithg=capitalgainsyield=6%andD/P=7%.,$2.00$25.72,WhatisD/Pandcapitalgainsyieldatt=0andatt=3?,t=0:,D1,P0,=7.78%.,CGY=13%7.78%=5.22%.,Ifg=-6%,wouldanyonebuythestock?Ifso,atwhatprice?,Firmstillhasearningsandstillpaysdividends,soP00:,(,),$,P,D,k,g,D,g,k,g,s,s,0,1,0,1,=,-,=,+,-,$2.00(0.94)$1.880.13(-0.06)0.19,=$9.89.,WhatistheannualD/Pandcapitalgainsyield?,Capitalgainsyield=g=-6.0%,Dividendyield=13.0%(-6.0%)=19%.D/Pandcap.gainsyieldareconstant,withhighdividendyield(19%)offsettingnegativecapitalgainsyield.,FreeCashFlowMethod,Thefreecashflowmethodsuggeststhatthevalueoftheentirefirmequalsthepresentvalueofthefirmsfreecashflows(calculatedonanafter-taxbasis).Recallthatthefreecashflowinanygivenyearcanbecalculatedas:NOPATNetcapitalinvestment.,Oncethevalueofthefirmisestimated,anestimateofthestockpricecanbefoundasfollows:MVofcommonstock(marketcapitalization)=MVoffirmMVofdebtandpreferredstock.P=MVofcommonstock/#ofshares.,UsingtheFreeCashFlowMethod,Freecashflowmethodisoftenpreferredtothedividendgrowthmodel-particularlyforthelargenumberofcompaniesthatdontpayadividend,orforwhomitishardtoforecastdividends.,IssuesRegardingtheFreeCashFlowMethod,(More.),Similartothedividendgrowthmodel,thefreecashflowmethodgenerallyassumesthatatsomepointintime,thegrowthrateinfreecashflowwillbecomeconstant.Terminalvaluerepresentsthevalueofthefirmatthepointinwhichgrowthbecomesconstant.,FCFMethodIssuesContinued,416.942,FCFestimatesforthenext3yearsare-$5,$10,and$20million,afterwhichtheFCFisexpectedtogrowat6%.Theoverallfirmcostofcapitalis10%.,0,-4.545,8.264,15.026,398.197,1,2,3,4,k=10%,g=6%,-5102021.20,21.200.04,.,*TV3representstheterminalvalueofthefirm,att=3.,530=*TV3,Ifthefirmhas$40millionindebtandhas10millionsharesofstock,whatisthepricepershare?,Valueofequity=TotalvalueValueofdebt=$416.94$40=$376.94million.,Pricepershare=Valueofequity/#ofshares=$376.94/10=$37.69.,Analystsoftenusethefollowingmultiplestovaluestocks:P/EP/CFP/SalesP/CustomerExample:Basedoncomparablefirms,estimatetheappropriateP/E.Multiplythisbyexpectedearningstobackoutanestimateofthestockprice.,UsingtheMultiplesofComparableFirmstoEstimateStockPrice,Inequilibrium,stockpricesarestable.Thereisnogeneraltendencyforpeopletobuyversustosell.Inequilibrium,expectedreturnsmustequalrequiredreturns:,Whatismarketequilibrium?,ks=D1/P0+g=ks=kRF+(kMkRF)b.,ks=D1/P0+g=ks=kRF+(kMkRF)b.,Expectedreturnsareobtainedbyestimatingdividendsandexpectedcapitalgains(whichcanbefoundusinganyofthethreecommonstockvaluationapproaches).RequiredreturnsareobtainedfromtheCAPM.,Howisequilibriumestablished?,Ifks=+gks,thenP0is“toolow”(abargain).Buyorderssellorders;P0bidup;D1/P0fallsuntilD1/P0+g=ks=ks.,D1P0,Whydostockpriceschange?,1.kicouldchange:ki=kRF+(kMkRF)bi.kRF=k*+IP.2.gcouldchangeduetoeconomicorfirmsituation.,P0=,D1kig,WhatstheEfficientMarketHypothesis?,EMH:Securitiesarenormallyinequilibriumandare“fairlypriced.”Onecannot“beatthemarket”exceptthroughgoodluckorbetterinformation.,1.Weak-formEMH:Cantprofitbylookingatpasttrends.Arecentdeclineisnoreasontothinkstockswillgoup(ordown)inthefuture.Evidencesupportsweak-formEMH,but“technicalanalysis”isstillused.,2.Semistrong-formEMH:Allpubliclyavailableinformationisreflectedinstockprices,sodoesntpaytoporeoverannualreportslookingforundervaluedstocks.Largelytrue,butsuperioranalystscanstillprofitbyfindingandusingnewinformation.,3.Stron