财务管理 (24)

Chapter6,FinancialStatementAnalysis,2001Prentice-Hall,Inc.FundamentalsofFinancialManagement,11/eCreatedby:GregoryA.Kuhlemeyer,Ph.D.CarrollCollege,Waukesha,WI,FinancialStatementAnalysis,FinancialStatementsAPossibleFrameworkforAnalysisRatioAnalysisTrendAnalysisCommon-SizeandIndexAnalysis,ExamplesofExternalUsesofStatementAnalysis,TradeCreditors-Focusontheliquidityofthefirm.Bondholders-Focusonthelong-termcashflowofthefirm.Shareholders-Focusontheprofitabilityandlong-termhealthofthefirm.,ExamplesofInternalUsesofStatementAnalysis,Plan-Focusonassessingthecurrentfinancialpositionandevaluatingpotentialfirmopportunities.Control-Focusonreturnoninvestmentforvariousassetsandassetefficiency.Understand-Focusonunderstandinghowsuppliersoffundsanalyzethefirm.,PrimaryTypesofFinancialStatements,IncomeStatementAsummaryofafirmsrevenuesandexpensesoveraspecifiedperiod,endingwithnetincomeorlossfortheperiod.,BalanceSheetAsummaryofafirmsfinancialpositiononagivendatethatshowstotalassets=totalliabilities+ownersequity.,BasketWondersBalanceSheet(AssetSide),a.Howthefirmstandsonaspecificdate.b.WhatBWowned.c.Amountsowedbycustomers.d.Futureexpenseitemsalreadypaid.e.Cash/likelyconvertibletocashwithin1year.f.Originalamountpaid.g.Acc.deductionsforwearandtear.,CashandC.E.$90Acct.Rec.c394Inventories696PrepaidExpd5AccumTaxPrepay10CurrentAssetse$1,195FixedAssets(Cost)f1030Less:Acc.Depr.g(329)NetFix.Assets$701Investment,LT50OtherAssets,LT223TotalAssetsb$2,169,BasketWondersBalanceSheet(thousands)Dec.31,2003a,BasketWondersBalanceSheet(LiabilitySide),a.Note,Assets=Liabilities+Equity.b.WhatBWowedandownershipposition.c.Owedtosuppliersforgoodsandservices.d.Unpaidwages,salaries,etc.e.Debtspayable1year.g.Originalinvestment.h.Earningsreinvested.,NotesPayable$290Acct.Payablec94AccruedTaxesd16OtherAccruedLiab.d100CurrentLiab.e$500Long-TermDebtf530ShareholdersEquityCom.Stock($1par)g200AddPdinCapitalg729RetainedEarningsh210TotalEquity$1,139TotalLiab/Equitya,b$2,169,BasketWondersBalanceSheet(thousands)Dec.31,2003,BasketWondersIncomeStatement,a.Measuresprofitabilityoveratimeperiod.b.Received,orreceivable,fromcustomers.c.Salescomm.,adv.,officerssalaries,etc.d.Operatingincome.e.Costofborrowedfunds.f.Taxableincome.g.Amountearnedforshareholders.,NetSales$2,211CostofGoodsSoldb1,599GrossProfit$612SG&AExpensesc402EBITd$210InterestExpensee59EBTf$151IncomeTaxes60EATg$91CashDividends38IncreaseinRE$53,BasketWondersStatementofEarnings(inthousands)forYearEndingDecember31,2003a,FrameworkforFinancialAnalysis,AnalyticalToolsUsedSourcesandUsesStatementStatementofCashFlowsCashBudgets,1.Analysisofthefundsneedsofthefirm.,Trend/SeasonalComponentHowmuchfundingwillberequiredinthefuture?Isthereaseasonalcomponent?,FrameworkforFinancialAnalysis,HealthofaFirmFinancialRatios1.Individually2.Overtime3.Incombination4.Incomparison,1.Analysisofthefundsneedsofthefirm.,2.Analysisofthefinancialconditionandprofitabilityofthefirm.,FrameworkforFinancialAnalysis,Examples:VolatilityinsalesVolatilityincostsProximitytobreak-evenpoint,1.Analysisofthefundsneedsofthefirm.,2.Analysisofthefinancialconditionandprofitabilityofthefirm.,3.Analysisofthebusinessriskofthefirm.,Businessriskrelatestotheriskinherentintheoperationsofthefirm.,FrameworkforFinancialAnalysis,AFinancialManagermustconsiderallthreejointlywhendeterminingthefinancingneedsofthefirm.,Determiningthefinancingneedsofthefirm.,1.Analysisofthefundsneedsofthefirm.,2.Analysisofthefinancialconditionandprofitabilityofthefirm.,3.Analysisofthebusinessriskofthefirm.,FrameworkforFinancialAnalysis,Negotiationswithsuppliersofcapital.,Determiningthefinancingneedsofthefirm.,1.Analysisofthefundsneedsofthefirm.,2.Analysisofthefinancialconditionandprofitabilityofthefirm.,3.Analysisofthebusinessriskofthefirm.,UseofFinancialRatios,TypesofComparisonsInternalComparisonsExternalComparisons,AFinancialRatioisanindexthatrelatestwoaccountingnumbersandisobtainedbydividingonenumberbytheother.,ExternalComparisonsandSourcesofIndustryRatios,Examples:RobertMorrisAssociatesDun&BradstreetAlmanacofBusinessandIndustrialFinancialRatios,Thisinvolvescomparingtheratiosofonefirmwiththoseofsimilarfirmsorwithindustryaverages.Similarityisimportantasoneshouldcompare“applestoapples.”,LiquidityRatios,CurrentCurrentAssetsCurrentLiabilitiesForBasketWondersDecember31,2003,Showsafirmsabilitytocoveritscurrentliabilitieswithitscurrentassets.,BalanceSheetRatios,LiquidityRatios,$1,195$500,=2.39,LiquidityRatioComparisons,BWIndustry2.392.152.262.091.912.01,Year200320022001,CurrentRatio,Ratioisstrongerthantheindustryaverage.,LiquidityRatios,Acid-Test(Quick)CurrentAssets-InvCurrentLiabilitiesForBasketWondersDecember31,2003,Showsafirmsabilitytomeetcurrentliabilitieswithitsmostliquidassets.,BalanceSheetRatios,LiquidityRatios,$1,195-$696$500,=1.00,LiquidityRatioComparisons,BWIndustry1.001.251.041.231.111.25,Year200320022001,Acid-TestRatio,Ratioisweakerthantheindustryaverage.,SummaryoftheLiquidityRatioComparisons,Strongcurrentratioandweakacid-testratioindicatesapotentialproblemintheinventoriesaccount.Notethatthisindustryhasarelativelyhighlevelofinventories.,RatioBWIndustryCurrent2.392.15Acid-Test1.001.25,CurrentRatio-TrendAnalysisComparison,Acid-TestRatio-TrendAnalysisComparison,SummaryoftheLiquidityTrendAnalyses,Thecurrentratiofortheindustryhasbeenrisingslowlyatthesametimetheacid-testratiohasbeenrelativelystable.ThisindicatesthatinventoriesareasignificantproblemforBW.,ThecurrentratioforBWhasbeenrisingatthesametimetheacid-testratiohasbeendeclining.,FinancialLeverageRatios,Debt-to-EquityTotalDebtShareholdersEquityForBasketWondersDecember31,2003,Showstheextenttowhichthefirmisfinancedbydebt.,BalanceSheetRatios,FinancialLeverageRatios,$1,030$1,139,=.90,FinancialLeverageRatioComparisons,BWIndustry.90.90.88.90.81.89,Year200320022001,Debt-to-EquityRatio,BWhasaveragedebtutilizationrelativetotheindustryaverage.,FinancialLeverageRatios,Debt-to-Total-AssetsTotalDebtTotalAssetsForBasketWondersDecember31,2003,Showsthepercentageofthefirmsassetsthataresupportedbydebtfinancing.,BalanceSheetRatios,FinancialLeverageRatios,$1,030$2,169,=.47,FinancialLeverageRatioComparisons,BWIndustry.47.47.47.47.45.47,Year200320022001,Debt-to-Total-AssetRatio,BWhasaveragedebtutilizationrelativetotheindustryaverage.,FinancialLeverageRatios,TotalCapitalizationTotalDebtTotalCapitalizationForBasketWondersDecember31,2003,Showstherelativeimportanceoflong-termdebttothelong-termfinancingofthefirm.,BalanceSheetRatios,FinancialLeverageRatios,$1,030$1,669,=.62,(i.e.,LT-Debt+Equity),FinancialLeverageRatioComparisons,BWIndustry.62.60.62.61.67.62,Year200320022001,TotalCapitalizationRatio,BWhasaveragelong-termdebtutilizationrelativetotheindustryaverage.,CoverageRatios,InterestCoverageEBITInterestChargesForBasketWondersDecember31,2003,Indicatesafirmsabilitytocoverinterestcharges.,IncomeStatementRatios,CoverageRatios,$210$59,=3.56,CoverageRatioComparisons,BWIndustry3.565.194.355.0210.304.66,Year200320022001,InterestCoverageRatio,BWhasbelowaverageinterestcoveragerelativetotheindustryaverage.,CoverageRatio-TrendAnalysisComparison,SummaryoftheCoverageTrendAnalysis,Thisindicatesthatlowearnings(EBIT)maybeapotentialproblemforBW.Note,weknowthatdebtlevelsareinlinewiththeindustryaverages.,TheinterestcoverageratioforBWhasbeenfallingsince2001.Ithasbeenbelowindustryaveragesforthepasttwoyears.,ActivityRatios,ReceivableTurnoverAnnualNetCreditSalesReceivablesForBasketWondersDecember31,2003,Indicatesqualityofreceivablesandhowsuccessfulthefirmisinitscollections.,IncomeStatement/BalanceSheetRatios,ActivityRatios,$2,211$394,=5.61,(Assumeallsalesarecreditsales.),ActivityRatios,AvgCollectionPeriodDaysSalesOutstanding(DSO)DaysintheYearReceivableTurnover(DaysDebtors)ForBasketWondersDecember31,2003,Averagenumberofdaysthatreceivablesareoutstanding.(orRTindays),IncomeStatement/BalanceSheetRatios,ActivityRatios,3655.61,=65days,ActivityRatioComparisons,BWIndustry65.065.771.166.383.669.2,Year200320022001,AverageCollectionPeriod,BWhasimprovedtheaveragecollectionperiodtothatoftheindustryaverage.,ActivityRatios,PayableTurnover(PT)AnnualCreditPurchasesAccountsPayableForBasketWondersDecember31,2003,Indicatesthepromptnessofpaymenttosuppliersbythefirm.,IncomeStatement/BalanceSheetRatios,ActivityRatios,$1551$94,=16.5,(Assumeannualcreditpurchases=$1,551.),ActivityRatios,PTinDaysDaysintheYearPayableTurnoverForBasketWondersDecember31,2003,Averagenumberofdaysthatpayablesareoutstanding.,IncomeStatement/BalanceSheetRatios,ActivityRatios,36516.5,=22.1days,ActivityRatioComparisons,BWIndustry22.146.725.451.143.548.5,Year200320022001,PayableTurnoverinDays,BWhasimprovedthePTinDays.Isthisgood?,ActivityRatios,InventoryTurnoverCostofGoodsSoldInventoryForBasketWondersDecember31,2003,Indicatestheeffectivenessoftheinventorymanagementpracticesofthefirm.,IncomeStatement/BalanceSheetRatios,ActivityRatios,$1,599$696,=2.30,ActivityRatioComparisons,BWIndustry2.303.452.443.762.643.69,Year200320022001,InventoryTurnoverRatio,BWhasaverypoorinventoryturnoverratio.,InventoryTurnoverRatio-TrendAnalysisComparison,ActivityRatios,TotalAssetTurnoverNetSalesTotalAssets(AverageAssets)ForBasketWondersDecember31,2003,Indicatestheoveralleffectivenessofthefirminutilizingitsassetstogeneratesales.,IncomeStatement/BalanceSheetRatios,ActivityRatios,$2,211$2,169,=1.02,ActivityRatioComparisons,BWIndustry1.021.171.031.141.011.13,Year200320022001,TotalAssetTurnoverRatio,BWhasaweaktotalassetturnoverratio.Whyisthisratioconsideredweak?,ProfitabilityRatios,GrossProfitMarginGrossProfitNetSalesForBasketWondersDecember31,2003,Indicatestheefficiencyofoperationsandfirmpricingpolicies.,IncomeStatement/BalanceSheetRatios,ProfitabilityRatios,$612$2,211,=.277,ProfitabilityRatioComparisons,BWIndustry27.7%31.1%28.730.831.327.6,Year200320022001,GrossProfitMargin,BWhasaweakGrossProfitMargin.,GrossProfitMargin-TrendAnalysisComparison,ProfitabilityRatios,NetProfitMarginNetProfitafterTaxesNetSalesForBasketWondersDecember31,2003,Indicatesthefirmsprofitabilityaftertakingaccountofallexpensesandincometaxes.,IncomeStatement/BalanceSheetRatios,ProfitabilityRatios,$91$2,211,=.041,ProfitabilityRatioComparisons,BWIndustry4.1%8.2%4.98.19.07.6,Year200320022001,NetProfitMargin,BWhasapoorNetProfitMargin.,NetProfitMargin-TrendAnalysisComparison,ProfitabilityRatios,ReturnonInvestmentNetProfitafterTaxesTotalAssetsForBasketWondersDecember31,2003,Indicatestheprofitabilityontheassetsofthefirm(afterallexpensesandtaxes).,IncomeStatement/BalanceSheetRatios,ProfitabilityRatios,$91$2,160,=.042,ProfitabilityRatioComparisons,BWIndustry4.2%9.8%5.09.19.110.8,Year200320022001,ReturnonInvestment,BWhasapoorReturnonInvestment.,ReturnonInvestmentTrendAnalysisComparison,ProfitabilityRatios,ReturnonEquityNetProfitafterTaxesShareholdersEquityForBasketWondersDecember31,2003,Indicatestheprofitabilitytotheshareholdersofthefirm(afterallexpensesandtaxes).,IncomeStatement/BalanceSheetRatios,ProfitabilityRatios,$91$1,139,=.08,ProfitabilityRatioComparisons,BWIndustry8.0%17.9%9.417.216.620.4,Year200320022001,ReturnonEquity,BWhasapoorReturnonEquity.,ReturnonEquity-TrendAnalysisComparison,ReturnonInvestmentandtheDuPontApproach,ROI2003=.041x1.02=.042or4.2%ROIIndustry=.082x1.17=.098or9.8%,ROI=NetprofitmarginXTotalassetturnover,EarningPower=SalesprofitabilityXAssetefficiency,ReturnonEquityandtheDuPontA