taiwan财务管理_lecture12(ch12)(PPT 15页)

,Irwin/McGraw-Hill,Chapter12,FundamentalsofCorporateFinanceThirdEdition,CorporateFinancingandtheLessonsofMarketEfficiency,BrealeyMyersMarcusslidesbyMatthewWill,Irwin/McGraw-Hill,TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,2001,TopicsCovered,InvestmentDecisionvs.FinancingDecisionMarketEfficiencyWeakformefficiencySemi-strongformefficiencyStrongformefficiencyLessonsofMarketEfficiency,Investmentvs.Financing,Investmentdecisionaremadebasedontheriskoftheproject,withtotaldisregardforhowtheprojectwillbefinanced(flotationcostsbeingtheexception).Financingdecisionsaremadebasedontheconditionsinthecapitalmarkets,withlittleconsiderationfortheinvestmentbeingmade(projectspecificfundingbeingtheexception.IRBsareagoodexample).,MarketEfficiencyTheoryCapitalmarketsreflectallrelevantinformation.Youcannotconsistentlyearnexcessprofits.,MarketEfficiency,MarketEfficiency,EfficientCapitalMarkets-Financialmarketsinwhichsecuritypricesrapidlyreflectallrelevantinformationaboutassetvalues.,RandomWalk-Securitypriceschangerandomly,withnopredictabletrendsorpatterns.,RandomWalkTheory,ThemovementofstockpricesfromdaytodayDONOTreflectanypattern.Statisticallyspeaking,themovementofstockpricesisrandom(skewedpositiveoverthelongterm).,RandomWalkTheory,$103.00,$100.00,$106.09,$100.43,$97.50,$100.43,$95.06,CoinTossGame,Heads,Heads,Heads,Tails,Tails,Tails,RandomWalkTheory,RandomWalkTheory,MarketEfficiency,TechnicalAnalysts-Investorswhoattempttoidentifyover-orundervaluedstocksbysearchingforpatternsinpastprices.,FundamentalAnalysts-Analystswhoattempttofundunder-orovervaluedsecuritiesbyanalyzingfundamentalinformation,suchasearnings,assetvalues,andbusinessprospects.,EfficientMarketTheory,LastMonth,ThisMonth,NextMonth,$907050,EIsStockPrice,Cyclesdisappearonceidentified,MarketEfficiency,WeakFormEfficiency-Marketpricesrapidlyreflectallinformationcontainedinthehistoryofpastprices.Semi-StrongFormEfficiency-Marketpricesreflectallpubliclyavailableinformation.StrongFormEfficiency-Marketpricesreflectallinformationthatcouldinprinciplebeusedtodeterminetruevalue.,EfficientMarketTheory,AnnouncementDate,MarketEfficiency,LessonsofMarketEfficiency,MarketshavenomemoryTrus