The importance of the Montreal protocol in protecting climate.ppt

importanceofthemontrealprotocolforozonelayerandclimate,guusvelders,thenetherlands,wmo/unepozoneresearchmanagersgeneva,may19,2008,guusvelders,montrealprotocolandclimate,2,wellknownbenefitsmontrealprotocol,largedecreasesincfcproduction(90%)andemissions(60-90%)concentrationsalsodecreasingincreasesforhcfcsandhfcs,wmo(2007),guusvelders,montrealprotocolandclimate,3,wellknownbenefitsmontrealprotocol(2),emergingevidenceofstartofozonelayerrecoveryfullrecoveryaround2050polarregions10-25yearslaterrecoverycanbeaffectedby:futureproductioncfcs,hcfcsproductionmethylbromideemissionsfromexistingequipmentinteractionwithclimatechange,wmo(2007),guusvelders,montrealprotocolandclimate,4,montrealprotocolprovideddualprotection:toozonelayerandtoclimatechange,climatebenefitsalreadyachievedlargerthankyotoprotocoltargetsfor2008-2012potentialforadditionalclimatebenefitssignificantcomparedtokyotoreason:cfcs,hcfcsaregreenhousegaseslargegwps:-co2:1-cfcs:4,00011,000-hcfcs:7002,300,guusvelders,montrealprotocolandclimate,5,decreaseinproductionofcfcs,1974:molinaandrowland:cfcsaffecttheozonelayer-publicconcerndropproduction1980:increaseinproduction:-newapplications-growthinasiaandeurope1987:montrealprotocol:-restrictingprod/usecfcs,halons2010:globalproductionstopcfc,guusvelders,montrealprotocolandclimate,6,productionscenarios,baseline:currentmontrealprotocolinagreementwithobservationsusedinwmo(2007),without1974papermolinaandrowland:3-7%annualgrowth,without1987montrealprotocol:2-3%annualgrowth,guusvelders,montrealprotocolandclimate,7,concentrationscenarios,delayscomparedtoprod/emis.duetolonglifetimesexponentialgrowthwithoutearlywarningin1974continuedgrowthwithoutmontrealprotocol,veldersetal.,pnas,2007,guusvelders,montrealprotocolandclimate,8,effectonozonelayer,mid-latitude:eescbackto1980-levelsaround2050polarregion:eescbackto1980-levelsaround2065:olderageofairinpolarvortexlargeozonedepletionwithoutmontrealprotocolandamendments,guusvelders,montrealprotocolandclimate,9,ozonelayerrecovery,largestpotentialreductions:destructionofbanksofcfcsdestructionofbanksofhalonslimitingfutureproductionofhcfcsinteractionwithclimatechange:coolingupperstratosphereozoneincreasecoolinglowerstratospheremoreactivationonpscozonedestructioncirculationchangesoveralleffectuncertain,guusvelders,montrealprotocolandclimate,10,effectsonclimate,worldavoidedbythemontrealprotocol,reductionmontrealprotocolof11gtco2-eq/yr5-6timeskyototarget(incl.offsets:hfcs,ozonedepl.),co2emissions,veldersetal.,pnas,2007,guusvelders,montrealprotocolandclimate,11,radiativeforcingleadingtoclimatechange,reductioninradiativeforcingof0.23wm-2in2010about13%ofco2emissionsofhumanactivities,veldersetal.,pnas,2007,forcing:delayof10yearscfco2emissions,guusvelders,montrealprotocolandclimate,12,ozone-depletingsubstancesnotinkyoto,totaltargetkyoto:about2gtco2-eq/yrcfcsnotincludedinkyotoprotocolalreadycoveredandsoontobephasedoutbenefitsforpollutingcountriesseparateprotocolsnegativeoffsetpotentiallylargewithmontrealprotocol,cfcslikelyincludedinkyotoprotocol,but:effectsatleast10yearslaterstartingatmuchhigherbaselinehardertoeliminate,guusvelders,montrealprotocolandclimate,13,offsettingtheclimatebenefits,about80%ofozonedepleting-substancesreplacedbynon-fluorocarbonssubstitutegasesforcfcshfcsandhcfcshfcemissions:0.9gtco2-eq/yrby2010(ipcc)negativeradiativeforcingofozonedepletionipccestimateof-0.05+/-0.05w/m2for1979-2005totaloffsetsabout30%ofdirectforcing,guusvelders,montrealprotocolandclimate,14,montreal2007adjustment:hcfcphase-out,september21,2007inmontreal:adjustmentofmontrealprotocol:acceleratedhcfcphase-outclimateeffectstakenintoaccountdevelopedcountries:phase-outfrom20302020(+intermediatereductionstargets)developingcountries:freezein2012phase-outfrom20402030(+intermediatereductionstargets)baselevelfrom2015average2009-2010,guusvelders,montrealprotocolandclimate,15,montreal2007adjustment:hcfcphase-out,recoveryozonelayer3yearsearlierreductioninemissions:7-9mtonneshcfcs0.35-0.45mtcfc-11-eq12-15gtco2-eq100millioncarsperyeareffectsdependonalternativesbeingused,guusvelders,montrealprotocolandclimate,16,possibleadditionalbenefits,bettercontainmentinrefrigerationdestructionofodsbanksalternativeswithlowergwpspotentialreductions:(by2015ingtco2-eq/yr)cfcs:0.12hcfcs:partlydonehfc-23:0.30(by-product)hfcs:0.44(alternative.chemicals),guusvelders,montrealprotocolandclimate,17,conclusions,montrealprotocolprovideddualprotection:toozonelayerandtoclimatechangealreadyachievedclimatebenefits5-6timeslargerthankyotoprotocoltargetsfor2008-2012montrealprotocol:delayinco2-forcingof10yearsmontreal2007adjustment:emissionsreducedby12-15gtco2-eq(dependsonreplacements)ozonelayerrecovery3yearsearlier,guusvelders,montrealprotocolandclimate,18,conclusions(2),potentialforadditionalclimatebenefitssignificantcomparedtokyotoprotocoltargets(2008-2012):bettercontainmentinrefrige