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WillChineseStockMarketsMirrortheBehaviouroftheNASDAQ Whereisthesolution ChristopherPollChairman GreaterChinaConsultancyLtd 3QUESTIONSRAISED HOWTODEFINEA WELLREGULATEDMARKET WHATRELEVANCEAPRICE EARNINGSRATIO IFINSTITUTIONALFUNDSAREASTABILISINGFACTORFORTHESTOCKMARKET WHYAREDEVELOPEDMARKETSSOVOLATILE HOWTODEFINEA WELLREGULATEDMARKET TheFinancialMarketsareDynamic Businessis Proactive ButRegulatorsare Reactive not ProactiveTheSystemofRegulationandEnforcementcanneverbecompletelyFlexibleandDynamicImportanceofFiduciaryResponsibility FinancialInfrastructureMAINFACTORSFORFUNDS Government FinancialPolicemen InstitutionalManagers CentredaroundPublicInvestors PRIVATESECTOR Lawyers Accountants InvestmentBankers StockBrokers CommercialBanks ConflictofInterest ConflictofInterest Whoistheclient WhoaretheFinancialPolicemanResponsibleto CanRegulationbeProtectwithFinancialPolicemenbeingProactive INVESTORS Institutional Private Pensions Insurance MutualFunds Investors Confidence Investors Education Confidence Education Investors InvestorProtection Confidence Easierandmoreeffectiveenforcement Increasedefficiencyreducescosts Improvedflexibilityoftheinfrastructuretorespondeffectivelyandcompetitively EfficientInfrastructureTransparencyAccountability Leadsto AChineseTailorMadeSolutionfortheChineseFundIndustry WHATRELEVANCEAPRICE EARNINGSRATIO ChineseQuotedStocksCorporateProfits NASDAQCorporateProfits Confidence 1995 2000 C IFCONFIDENCEISLOW THENMONEYFLOWISMINUTE CONFIDENCE IFCONFIDENCEISHIGH THENMONEYFLOWISLARGE WhatistheCriteriaForInvesting 1 WhatdoyouthinkisthemostimportantinfluenceonthestockmarketinChinatoday Thehistoricbalancesheetsandprofitandlossaccountsofthequotedcompanies 6Thefutureprospectsforcorporateearnings 10Governmentpolicy 62Govt investigationintomalpractices15TheoveralleconomicgrowthoftheChineseeconomy 27China sentryintotheWTO 8 2 Howdoyouasaninvestoranalysethefairvalueofthecompaniesyoubuy sell Bypriceearningsratio 35Byrelationshiptonetassetvale 5Bythelatestrumour 58Bythebusinesssectorthecompanyisinvolvedin 21Bymultipleofsalesrevenue 9 3 Whatdoyouthinkshouldbetheaverageprospectivepriceearningsratiofornon technologystocks under15times 015to25times 18above25 110 4 Whatdoyouthinkshouldbetheaverageprospectivepriceearningsratio under15times 015to25times 125to50 16over50 111 5 Howdoyoumeasureinvestmentrisk Bymeasuringthevolatilityofthestock 31Bymeasuringthevolatilityofthestockmarket 42Byestimatingtheaccuracyofdisclosedinformation 16Byestimatingtheriskoffraud 17Byanalysinghistoricreturns 13Bycomparingwithandadjustingfora riskfree measuresuchasadepositrate 8 AtwhatleveldoyouthinktheShanghaiAsharemarketwillbeon31stDecember2001 mostthinkitwillbeabove2500Todayitis2140 AtwhatleveldoyouthinktheShanghaiBsharemarketwillbeon31stDecember2001 mostthinkitwillbeabove200Todayitis183 IFINSTITUTIONALFUNDSAREASTABILISINGFACTORFORTHESTOCKMARKET WHYAREDEVELOPEDMARKETSSOVOLATILE FactorsEffectingInvestmentTimeHorizons ConfidenceinLongTermTrendsConfidenceinInformationDisclosureVolatilityofMarketsLiquidityofMarketsProfitForecastPublicScrutinyofPerformance EACM100 EqualWeighted RebalancedAnnually IndexofHedgeFundIndicesdescribedonPreviousSlide ChinaversusWesternMarkets LimitedsenseofAccountabilityLittleUnderstandingofRiskChineseBusinessPhilosophyReluctancetoIncentiviseExecutiveManagers EntrepreneursUnderstandCause ConsequenceRiskisFullyUnderstoodShareholderAccountabil
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