SecurityandPolicing2015(2.05).ppt Acceleration Watch.ppt

homelandsecurityandpolicing:opportunitiesandchallengesofacceleratingchangefbifuturesworkinggroup2005johnsmart,president,asf(/slides.html),2005a,presentationoutline,futuresquizpresentparadigmworldsecurityandthenon-integratinggapbigpicturefuturehomelandsecurityandpolicingconclusions,i.futuresquiz,2005a,futuresquiz,q:ofthe100topeconomiesintheworld,howmanyaremultinationalcorporationsandhowmanyarenationstates?,2005a,futuresquiz,q:ofthe100topeconomiesintheworld,howmanyaremultinationalcorporationsandhowmanyarenationstates?51mncsand49nations.,2005a,futuresquiz,q:disneyandsony(respectively)produceandlaunchonenewproductevery_?,2005a,futuresquiz,q:disneyandsony(respectively)produceandlaunchonenewproductevery_?onceeverythreeminutesfordisney.onceeverytwentyminutesforsony.,2005a,futuresquiz,q:howmuchofhewlettpackardsrevenuecomesfromproductslaunchedinthelastyear?,2005a,futuresquiz,q:howmuchofhewlettpackardsrevenuecomesfromproductslaunchedinthelastyear?70%,elizabethdebold,whatisenlightenment?,march-may2005,2005a,accelerationawareness,whatdoyouseeacceleratingaroundyou?whatdoyouseeremainingconstant?,2005a,manyaccelerationsareunderwhelming,somemodestexponentials:productivityperu.s.workerhrhasimproved500%over75years(1929-2004,2%peryr)businessinvestmentas%ofu.s.gdpisflatat11%over25years.nondefensermodernizationandpostmodernization,2002)wecanmeasurethis(censusandothersurveys).,2005a,“brokenwindows”policies:apreconditiontomev,brokenwindowstheoryofpoliticalscientistjameswilsonandcriminologistgeorgekelling(theatlanticmonthly,march1982)rapidresponsetoandrepairofthevisiblybrokenaspectsofalocalcommunityincreasessenseofcontrol,ownership,initiativeandvigilanceagainstcrime.billboardswitheasyreportingphonenumbersandlistofthetopactspeopleshouldreport.givingstatisticsandtrends.enlistingthecollectiveinsimplevigilance.,2005a,examples:iraq,communications(cellphones)lighting(digitalsolidstate)energy(centralizedeconomiesofscale,subsidizeddeflationaryprices;decentralizedstorageandgeneration)example:donkeycartgeneratorssecurity(networkedcameras;cameratraps)culturally-dependent:britainvs.s.africavs.u.s.portablecdplayers/localmusic($10atwal-mart)publicaccessradioandtvstationsfoodstorage,culinary,andwomensneedssports/youthfads,2005a,idaptechnologyprocesses,innovationdiffusionassessmentpolicy“thefutureishere,itsjustnotevenlydistributedyet.”williamgibsonfirsttothirdworlddiffusionisarguablythegreatestgap.butculture-appropriateassessmentprocesses,sensitivepolicymaking,andfosteringculturesofinnovationarealsoimportant.,2005a,thekeystrategicquestionwithanygapintervention,notwhetherwecouldhavebeenlikedbetter,wonmore“heartsandminds”(iniraqoramongourallies).thekeyquestionisthedegreetowhichnewexponentialecologies(technological,economic,social)areadoptedandpersistinthecommunity.-tools,markets,ruleswecanmeasurethis(operationsresearch).,2005a,thesay-dodevelopmentgap,2,600iraqidevelopmentprojectspromised160underwaypresently.(time,july2004)ofallofthese,communicationsprojectshavebeenourbiggestshortcoming.wewiredourselvessuperbly(cpof)butweneverwiredintothepopulace,orevenhelpedthemtowirethemselves,inexponentialfashion.example:darpa/uscicttacticallanguageproject.top-downthinking.“a.i.”vs.persistentworlds.wecouldhavehadscoresofiraqi/arabicyouthteachingourincomingsoldierstacticalcultureinmassivelymultiplayeronlineworlds,andusingthoseworldsfortheirownbenefitaswell.atippingpointamongtheyouth(likesatellitetelevisioninindia,etc.).,2005a,immunerecognitionvs.rejection,thephenomenonofimmunerecognition(andimmunetolerance)vs.rejection.thehoneymoonperiod.rejection,ifnomeasurableexponentialvaluewithinthehostnetwork.wedidnotpassthistest(infairness,wemayneverhavepassed).nevertheless,thereweremanymissedopportunitiesfordeployingmevstrategy.,2005a,techimmunesystemsexample:cellphones,cellphonesareanintrinsicallydefensiveasset.-monitorable(locationandcontent)-strengthenpersonalnetworks-themeancanself-policetheextremes(reportscofflaws)-granularprivileges(givenandrevoked)-canbebuiltrobustly(dynamo,shoebatts)-chipprovidessuperiorid(addressbooks)-hotbuttontosecurityradioband,2005a,techimmunesystemsexample:firearmsforpolice,networkedweaponsareanintrinsicallydefensiveasset.-singleshotmagazines(deterrence)-camerasandmicrophones(“blackbox”)-cellphonetocentcomwhensafetyoff-thebesttrainingpossible(onthejob)-theinevitablefuture(worldwidebuybackofallnon-networkedlethalsexceptantiques(eg.australia)theemergenceofnetworkednon-lethals.,2005a,whatisourcontrolstudy?,howdoweknowprovidingmeasurableexponentialvaluewouldhaveworkediniraq?whatsourcontrolfortheconnectivitydoctrine?thegapsownhistory:maoistchina,kampuchea,afghanistan.everyexampleofswingsawayfromconnectivityhasbeenunsustainableinspaceandtime.,2005a,u.s.army:developmentchallengesandopportunities,securityleaderdevelopmentfollowerthismakesinstitutionalsense.anaturalconstraint.manydevelopmentcapabilityoptions:specialization(corpsofengineers,etc.).uniquecapacities(fireandweathermgmt,fles)competition(crossservicesbidding)incentivesifunderbudgetandbeforedeadlinewithquality(ex:kowloontunnel(hongkong),humangenomeproject,etc.)networks(americasarmy:worldwidedevel.recruits)partnerships.mostobvious:usaid(longtermoptimists).manyothersaswell(bottomup).,iv.bigpicturefuture,2005a,systemstheory,systemstheoristsmakethingssimple(sometimestoosimple!)everythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossible,butnotsimpler.alberteinstein,2005a,smartslawsoftechnology,1.techlearnstenmilliontimesfasterthanyoudo.(electronicvs.biologicalratesofevolutionarydevelopment).2.humansareselectivecatalysts,notcontrollers,oftechnologicalevolutionarydevelopment.(regulatorychoices.ex:wmdproductionortransparency,p2pasaproprietaryoropensourcedevelopment)3.thefirstgenerationofanytechnologyisoftendehumanizing,thesecondisindifferenttohumanity,andwithluckthethirdbecomesnethumanizing.(cities,cars,cellphones,computers).,2005a,somethingcuriousisgoingon,unexplained.(dontlookforthisinyourphysicsorinformationtheorytexts),2005a,thetechnologicalsingularity:2ndorder“envelopeofs-curves”?,eachuniquephysical-computationalsubstrateappearstohaveitsowns-shaped“capabilitycurve.”theinformationinherentinthesesubstratesisapparentlynotmadeobsolete,butisinsteadincorporatedintothedevelopmentalarchitectureofthenextemergentsystem.,2005a,threehierarchicalsystemsofsocialchange,technological(dominantsince1950!)“itsallaboutthetechnology”(whatitenables,howinexpensivelyitcanbedeveloped)economic(dominant1800-1950s,secondarynow)“itsallaboutthemoney”(whohasit,controltheygainwithit)political/cultural(dominantpre-1800s,tertiarynow)“itsallaboutthepower”(whohasit,controltheygainwithit)developmentaltrends:1.thelevelshavereorganized,to“fastestfirst.”2.morepluralism(anetworkproperty)oneachlevel.pluralismexamples:40,000ngos,riseofthepowerofmedia,tortlaw,insurance,lobbies,etc.,2005a,fourpre-singularitysubcycles?,a30-yearcycle,from1990-20201stgenstupidnet/earlyia,weaknano,2ndgenrobots,earlyevcomp.worldsecuritybegins.a20-yearcycle,from2020-2040luinetwork,biotech,notbio-augmentation,adaptiverobots,peace/justicecrusades.a10-yearcycle,from2040-2050luipersonalitycapture(weakuploading),matureself-reconfig./evolutionarycomputing.2050:eraofstrongautonomyprogressivelyshorter5-,2-,1-yeartechcycles,eachmoreautocatalytic,seamless,human-centric.,2005a,henryadams,1909:thefirstsingularitytheorist,thefinaletherealphasewouldlastonlyaboutfouryears,andthereafterbringthoughttothelimitofitspossibilities.wildspeculationorcomputationalreality?stilltooearlytotell,atpresent.,2005a,ericchaissons“phi”():auniversalmooreslawcurve,freeenergyratedensitysubstrate(ergs/second/gram)galaxies0.5stars2(“counterintuitive”)planets(early)75plants900animals/genetics20,000(104)brains(human)150,000(105)culture(human)500,000(105)int.comb.engines(106)jets(108)pentiumchips(1011),source:ericchaisson,cosmicevolution,2001,time,2005a,understandingmestcompression,2005a,mestcompression:managingtechnologicaldevelopment,sincethebirthofcivilization,humanityhasbeenlearningtobuildspecialtypesoftechnologicalsystemsthatareprogressivelyabletodomoreforus,inamorenetworkedandresilientfashion,usinglessresources(matter,energy,space,time,humanandeconomiccapital)todeliveranyfixedamountofcomplexity,productivity,orcapability.wearefaceddailywithmanypossibleevolutionarychoicesinwhichtoinvestourprecioustime,energy,andresources,butonlyafewoptimaldevelopmentalpathwayswillclearlydomore,andbetter,withless.,2005a,theleftandrighthandsof“evolutionarydevelopment”,complexenvironmentalinteraction,selection&convergence“convergentselection”emergence,globaloptimamest-compressionstandardattractorsdevelopment,replication&variation“naturalselection”adaptiveradiationchaos,contingencypseudo-randomsearchstrangeattractorsevolution,righthand,lefthand,well-exploredphasespaceoptimization,newcomputatlphasespaceopening,2005a,cambrianexplosion,complexenvironmentalinteraction,selection/emergence/phasespacecollapse/mestcollapsedevelopment,adaptiveradiation/chaos/pseudo-randomsearchevolution,570mya.35bodyplansemergedimmediatelyafter.nonewbodyplanssince!onlynewbrainplans,builtontopofthebodyplans(homeoboxgeneduplication).body/brainplans:“eukaryoticmulticell.evolutionarydevelopmentalsubstrates.”,invertebrates,vertebrates,bacteria,insects,multicellularitydiscovered,2005a,marbles,landscapes,andbasins(complexsystems,evolution,&development),themarbles(systems)rollaroundonthelandscape,eachtakingunpredictable(evolutionary)paths.butthepathspredictablyconverge(development)onlowpoints(mestcompression),the“attractors”atthebottomofeachbasin.,2005a,howmanyeyesaredevelopmentallyoptimal?,evolutiontriedthisexperiment.developmentcalculatedanoperationaloptimum.somereptiles(e.g.xantusiavigilis,andcertainskinks)stillhaveaparietal(“pineal”)vestigialthirdeye.,2005a,howmanywheelsaredevelopmentallyoptimalonanautomobile?,examples:wheelonearth.socialcomputationdevice.diffusionproportionaltopopulationdensityanddiversity.,2005a,physicalspace:atransparentsociety(“panopticon”),hitachismu-chip:rfidforpapercurrency,davidbrin,thetransparentsociety,1998,2005a,bordermonitoring(lowaltitudedrugflights)citymonitoringearlywarningradarurbanbroadband,inventor:hokancolting21stcenturya180feetdiameter.autonomous.60,000feet(vs.22,000miles)permanentgeosynch.location.onboardsolarandnavigation.a“quartersized”receiverdish.whyaresatellitespresentlylosingagainstthewiredworld?latency,bandwidth,andlaunchcosts.mestcompressionalwayswins.dontbetagainstit!,stratellites:adevelopmentalattractor?,2005a,physicalspace:isbiotechasaturatedsubstrate?,21stcenturyneuropharmandneurotechwontacceleratebiologicalcomplexity!neuralhomeostasisfights“top-down”interventions“mostcomplexstructureintheknownuniverse”strongresistancetodisruptivebiointerventionsingroupethics,bodyimage,personalidentitywelllearnalot,notbiologically“redesignhumans”nohuman-scaletime,abilityorreasontodoso.expect“regressiontomean”(elim.disease)instead.neurosciencewillacceleratetechnologicalcomplexitybiologicallyinspiredcomputing.“structuralmimicry.”,2005a,virtualspace:isinnerspacethefinalfrontier?,mirrorworlds,davidgelernter,1998.realstructuresinspacetime(verylargeandverysmall)are:computationallyverysimpleandtractable(transparent)avastlyslowersubstrateforevolutionarydevelopmentrapidlyencapsulatedbyoursimulationsciencea“rearviewmirror”onthedevelopmentaltrajectoryofemergenceofuniversalintelligence?versus,non-autonomousiss,autonomoushumanbrain,2005a,interface:oilrefinery(multi-acreautomaticfactory),tyler,texas,1964.360acres.runbythreeoperators,eachneedingonlyahighschooleducation.the1972versioneliminatedthethreeoperators.,2005a,interface:understandingprocessautomation,perhaps80%oftodaysfirstworldpaycheckispaidforbyautomation(“techwetend”).robertsolow,1987nobelineconomics(solowproductivityparadox,theoryofeconomicgrowth)“7/8comesfromtechnicalprogress.”humancontribution(20%?)toafirstworldjobissocialvalueofemployment+creativity+educationdevelopingcountriesarenextinline(soonerorlater).continualeducationandgrants(“taxingthemachines”)arethefinaljobdescriptionsforallhumanbeings.,termitemound,2005a,anictattractor:thelinguisticuserinterface,googlescache(2002)watchwindows2004becomeconversations2020convergenceofinfotechandsociotech,2005a,inthelongrun,webecomeseamlesswithourmachines.noothercrediblelongtermfutureshavebeenproposed.“technologyisbecomingorganic.natureisbecomingtechnologic.”(brianarthur,sfi),personalitycapture,2005a,your“digitalyou”(digitaltwin),gregpanos(andmother)personaf,“iwouldneveruploadmyconsciousnessintoamachine.”“ienjoyleavingbehindstoriesaboutmylifeformychildren.”prediction:whenyourmotherdiesin2050,yourdigitalmomwillbe“50%her.”whenyourbestfrienddiesin2080,yourdigitalbestfriendwillbe“80%him.”successiveapproximation,seamlessintegration,subtletransition.whenyoucanshiftyourownconsciousperspectivebetweenyourelectronicandbiologicalcomponents,theencapsulationandtranscendenceofthebiologicalwillfeellikeonlygrowth,notdeath.wewouldnthaveitanyotherway.,v.homelandsecurityandpolicing,2005a,fbimission,toprotectanddefendtheunitedstatesagainstterroristandforeignintelligencethreats,toupholdandenforcethecriminallawsoftheunitedstatestoprovideleadershipandcriminaljusticeservicestofederal,state,municipal,andinternationalagenciesandpartners.,2005a,fbipriorities,1.protecttheunitedstatesfromterroristattack.2.protecttheunitedstatesagainstforeignintelligenceoperationsandespionage.3.protecttheunitedstatesagainstcyber-basedattacksandhigh-technologycrimes.4.combatpubliccorruptionatalllevels.5.protectcivilrights.6.combattransnationalandnationalcriminalorganizationsandenterprises.7.combatmajorwhite-collarcrime.8.combatsignificantviolentcrime.9.supportfederal,state,county,municipal,andinternationalpartners.10.upgradetechnologytosuccessfullyperformthefbismission.majorprioritytransitionsarerare.thefbiisinonenow.thisisauniquetimeofopportunityandresponsibility.,2005a,fbifwgmission,“thefuturesworkinggroupwillidentifyandpromoteinnovationforthefutureofpolicing.”implicitmessage:leadershipininnovationpromotion.,2005a,branchesofgovernment,executivebranch(enforcesthelaw)legislativebranch(makesthelaw)judicialbranch(interpretsthelaw)theexecutivebranch(doj,etc.)alsoformsnewpolicyandleadsthecountry.howdowecultivateagreaterleadership,policy-forming,andexecutiveculture(e.g.acultureofinnovationandcalculatedrisk-taking)inthefbi?,2005a,toolsforshapingthefuture,educationenvironmentalliteracy/scanningtechnologicalbusinesssocial/politicalcultureofforesightcultureofinnovationcultureofcompetitionlocalcommitmentglobalperspective,2005a,nationalinnovationinitiativerecommendations(sample),innovateamerica,nii,counciloncompetitiveness,2004,ourbiggestopportunity:innovationpartnershipswiththe3billionnewworkerswhowerentintheglobaleconomytenyearsago.,2005a,u.s.innovation/competitiveness/accelerationhasflaggedinrecentyears,chinasurpassedtheu.s.thisyearasthelargestrecipientofforeigndirectinvestment.in2002,uscorporater&ddeclinedby$8billion,largestpercentagedropsince1950.fivecountries(japan,southkorea,sweden,finland,israel)spendmoregdponr&dthantheu.s.foreignownedcompaniesandforeignborninventorsnowcountfornearlyhalfofallu.s.patents,withjapan,korea,andtaiwanaccountingformorethanonefourth.federalr&dfundingisnow1/2ofits1960speakof2%ofgdp.totalscientificpapersbyamericanauthorspeakedin1992andhavebeenflateversince.servicesarethefastestgrowingsectorofmanytechnologycompanies,yetmuchofourservicesector,nowmorethanhalftheu.s.economy,traditionallydoeslittler&donbusinessprocessdesign,organization,andmanagement.,innovateamerica,nii,counciloncompetitiveness,2004,2005a,innovation/competitiveness/accelerationvs.efficiency/cooperation/sustainability,thefirstofthesemacroprocessesofchangeisinourcontrol(evo),secondislessso(devo).ideallyeachmustbeequallyprioritized,ingeneral(yetnotinspecificcontexts).asiapresentlyoverweightedtotheformer,europeisoverweightedtothelatter.theu.s.hasfallenbehindintheformerinrecentyears.,innovateamerica,nationalinnovationinitiative,counciloncompetitiveness,2004,2005a,solutions:educationandcivics,howdoweeducateouryouth(andcriminaljusticeundergrads)tohaveafuturesperspective?howdowehelpyouthunderstandhowtocreateabetterindividualfuturethroughcollectiveaction?showthemscenariosofvariouscommunityfutures,utopiananddystopian.,2005a,solutions:networksandfeedback,howdowemaximizethevalueofcitizensecuritysuggestionson311andotherforums?cellphonesincreasecitizenempowermentandreportingofscofflaws.howcanthesebeusedinhomelandsecurity?wheniptvcomes,everycitywillhaveitsownchannel.howcancitizensusephonecamstodecreaseviolenceandvandalism?example:traptv,reportingofcitizen-submittedcandidcamerafootageofvandalizersandlaw-breakersaskingforcitizenhelptoidentifytheperps.,2005a,solutions:neighborhoodinvolvement,neighborhoodwatchandcitizennetworks,crimetipbillboards,postedrewards,andlocalpolicethataretrustedconfidants.community-orientedandproblemsolvingpolicing.personalizedandlocalizedsecuritysolutionsbylawenforcementpersonnelwhoknowtheresidentsoftheircommunity.,2005a,solutions:autosafety,automatedandintelligentvehiclehighwaysystems,-howmuchwoulditcosttoaddremotekillswitchestonewmodelcars?perhapsincom