酒店管理评测酒店价值评测(叶予舜).ppt

UnderstandingHotelValuationTechniques October2015 Objectives Whydowedovaluations Whyhotelaredifferentfromanyotherrealestate Whatisvalue UnderstandinghotelvaluationtechniquesConclusion whatisimportanttohaveinordertoproduceagoodhotelvaluation Conclusion Whydowedovaluations Because companiesinthestock exchangemarketneedtoupdatethe valueoftheirassetseveryyear hotelownersmightbegoingtoabanktoaskforaloanoffering thehotelascollateral hotelinvestorsmightbeinterestedinpurchasingaspecific hotel hotelownersmightbewillingtoselltheirhotel Acompanywouldliketomergewithanothercompanyand needtounderstandhowmuchcapitaltheyarebringingthroughtheirassets Manyotherreasons Whyhotelaredifferentfromanyotherrealestate Wehavealwaysbeentoldthatthepriceofanhotelisequaltothepriceoffivelittlegreenhouses ITISNOTTRUE Whyhotelaredifferentfromanyotherrealestate OFFICE valuedonm2basis RENTEDONAm2BASIS GENERATESCASH FLOWONAM2BASIS RESIDENTIAL valuedonm2basis RENTEDONAm2BASIS GENERATESCASH FLOWONAM2BASIS Whyhotelaredifferentfromanyotherrealestate Hotelsarenotrentedonam2basisastheydonotgeneratecash flowonam2basisWhatisthebasisofhotelincomegeneration Yotel LondonGatwick UK BanfiCastle Tuscany Italy WHotel Barcelona Spain Whyhotelaredifferentfromanyotherrealestate Hotelscashflowisgeneratedby Rooms Food Beverage Gym Spa HealthCentre MinorOperatingDepartment Whatisavalue OpenMarketValue FairValue LikelyFutureValue InvestmentValueMarketValueResidualLandValue CalculationofWorth MortgageLandingValue Whatisavalue MarketValueistheestimatedamountforwhichapropertyshouldexchangeonthedateofvaluationbetweenawillingbuyerandawillingsellerinanarm s lengthtransactionafterpropermarketingwhereinthepartieshadeachactedknowledgeably prudentlyandwithoutcompulsion IVSC1 Hotelvaluationtechniques Fun 10 000Rule Basic EBITDAmultiplier Yield Expert ReplacementCost SalesComparables onaperroombasis NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows HotelvaluationtechniquesFun 10 000Rule Takethepriceofatinofcoke fromthehotelmini barandmultiplyitfor10 000Example Cokeprice 4Euro Hotelvalue 40 000Europerroom Hotelvaluationtechniques Example Cokeprice 4Euro Hotelvalue 40 000Europerroom Limitations Priceofcokeinmini bardonotincreaseinthesamewayas hotelcashflows imaginea3staranda5starhotel Thismethodologydoesnottakeintoconsiderationany performanceresultsforthehotel Ifthehotelismakingorloosingmoney roompriceisthesame DONOTTAKEITTOOSERIOUSLY Hotelvaluationtechniques Basic EBITDAmultiplier Yield HotelvaluationtechniquesBasic EBITDAmultiplier Yield Takehotel sEBITDAandmultiplyitbyamultiplierinaccordance tohotel smarket position location pastperformances etcExample EBITDA 2 000 000US Multiplier 12 HotelValue 24 000 000US HotelvaluationtechniquesBasic EBITDAmultiplier Yield Takehotel sEBITDAanddivideitbyyourexpectedyield Example EBITDA 1 000 000Euro Expectedlevelofyield 7 HotelValue 14 285 000 1 000 000 7 Hotelvaluationtechniques Expert ReplacementCost SalesComparables onaperroombasis NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows Hotelvaluationtechniques Expert ReplacementCost aidealaveragepurchaser havinganaverage levelofinformation willverylikelybuyapropertyatamaximumpricethatisequivalenttothecostofbuildingasimilarpropertythatfeaturesthesamelevelofutility SalesComparables onaperroombasis NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows Hotelvaluationtechniques Expert ReplacementCost aidealaveragepurchaser havinganaverage levelofinformation willverylikelybuyapropertyatamaximumpriceequivalenttothecostofbuildingasimilarpropertythatfeaturesthesamelevelofutility Example Weneedmanyinformationsuchas Constructioncostperm2 FF E Yearofconstruction ReplacementCost Past Today ConstructioncostsLaborcostsFF E ConstructioncostsLaborcostsFF E ReplacementCost Past Today ConstructioncostsLaborcostsFF E ConstructioncostsLaborcostsFF E Technologyhasadvancedandnewbuildingtechniquesmakesbuildingtodaycheaperthanyesterday ReplacementCost Past Today ConstructioncostsLaborcostsFF E ConstructioncostsLaborcostsFF E Laborcostshaschangeddrasticallyinthelast10 20years Thisisevenmoredrasticindevelopingcountries ReplacementCost Past Today ConstructioncostsLaborcostsFF E ConstructioncostsLaborcostsFF E Priceoffurnitureandfixinghasreducedextensivelyyinthelastdecade ReplacementCostDepreciation Past Today ConstructioncostsLaborcostsFF E ConstructioncostsLaborcostsFF E Aftertakingallthisintoaccountwestillhavetodiscounttheresultbackintimetoreflectthatthehotelwearevaluingisnotbrandnew depreciation ReplacementCostDepreciationIfvaluationmethodologyisthis howwouldyouvaluethese DunboyCastleResort Cork Ireland CiraganPalaceKempinski Istanbul Turkey LakePalaceHotel Udaipur India ReplacementCost limitations Derivingahotel svaluebycalculatingthecostofreplacingitanddeductinganallowanceforcumulativedepreciation USES Easytobeunderstood Usefulfornewproperties LIMITATIONS Notalwayspossible especiallyforhistoricalhotels Doesnotreflectinvestorrationale Depreciationcanbephysical functionaland orexternal Hotelvaluationtechniques Expert ReplacementCost SalesComparables onaperroombasis apotentialstandard buyer featuringastandardlevelofinformation willpurchaseapropertyatamaximumpriceequivalenttothesalepriceofasimilarpropertywiththesamelevelofutility NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows Hotelvaluationtechniques Expert SalesComparables onaperroombasis apotentialstandard buyer featuringastandardlevelofinformation willpurchaseapropertyatamaximumpriceequivalenttothesalepriceofasimilarpropertywiththesamelevelofutility Example Wearewillingto purchasetheHotelRitzinParis Category 5starluxury 161rooms 118rooms 114 000 000Euro SaleComparables Weinvestigatethemarkettofindwhichhotelhasbeensoldin Priceperroom 627 000 2010andatwhichprice HotelLutetia 5star 231rooms 145 000 000Euro RenaissanceArcdeTriomphe 5starPriceperroom 966 000HoteldeCrillon 5starluxury 147roomsPriceperroom 1 700 000 250 000 000Euro SaleComparables Consideringtheabove howmuchwouldyoubewillingtopay HotelLutetia627 000 RenaissanceArcdeTriomphe966 000 HoteldeCrillon1 700 000 SaleComparables Consideringtheabove howmuchwouldyoubewillingtopay HoteldeCrillon1 700 000 SimilarlocationSimilarcategoryandserviceSimilarnumberofroomsRoompricing 12thSeptember Crillon 680Euro Ritz 850Euro 25 higher Weshouldexpecttopaymore lessthanHoteldeCrillon 25 2 125 000perroom161rooms 342 125 000Pricerange 1 700 000 2 125 000 SalesComparable limitations USES Providesarangeofvalues Comparehotelscurrentlyforsaletoexistingpropertiesthathave beenalreadysoldonthemarket themarkethasbeentestedfortheseslevelsofprices Givesanindicationofrealbuyersmotivation market drivenprice LIMITATIONS Nohotelistrulycomparable Valueisdependentonbuyermotivation whatifspecial motivation Economicenvironmentmaydiffer location time Reliablehotelsalesdatanotalwaysavailable Hotelvaluationtechniques Expert ReplacementCost SalesComparables onaperroombasis NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows NetPresentValueof futurecashflowsgeneratedbytheproperty Hotelvaluationtechniques Expert ReplacementCost SalesComparables onaperroombasis NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows NetPresentValueof futurecashflowsgeneratedbytheproperty Conversionoftheanticipatedbenefitsofpropertyownership annualincome intoanestimateofpresentvalue Hotelvaluationtechniques Propertywithtradingpotential suchashotels fuelstations restaurants orthelike theMarketValueofwhichmayincludeassetsotherthanlandandbuildingsalone Thesepropertiesarecommonlysoldinthemarketasoperatingassetsandwithregardtotheirtradingpotential Alsocalledpropertywithtradingpotential IVSCGN12 para3 5 Hotelvaluationtechniques NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows NetPresentValueof futurecashflowsgeneratedbythepropertyThiscanbedonethroughthebasicmethodsexplained SingleCapRate Multipliers IncomeCapitalization DCFApproach Hotelvaluationtechniques NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows NetPresentValueof futurecashflowsgeneratedbytheproperty Thiscanbedonethroughtheeasymethodsexplained SingleCapRate derivingahotel svaluebyapplyingacapitalizationratetothehotel snetincome Multipliers IncomeCapitalization DCFApproach SingleCapRate example HotelValue 16 400 000 Valueperroom 164 000 SingleCapRate limitations USES Leadtoquickresults Usedcommonlyandwidelyunderstood LIMITATIONS Itisbasedonone last incomeyearonly Donotreflectpropensityofincometoriseorfall Notalwaysreliable smallchangesinthecaprateproducelarge effectonvalue Hotelvaluationtechniques NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows NetPresentValueof futurecashflowsgeneratedbythepropertyThiscanbedonethroughtheeasymethodsexplained SingleCapRate Multipliers derivingahotel svaluebyapplyingacapitalizationratetoanestimateofthehotel ssstabilizednetincome IncomeCapitalization DCFApproach Multiplier example Multiplier limitations USES Morecomprehensiveapproach takeintoaccountmanagement factors Reflectsthepossibilityofincometoriseorfall Usedmoreandmoreoftenandunderstoodmoreandmore widely LIMITATIONS Thevaluerneedsmoredetailsregardinghoteloperationand management Thevaluerneedsabetterunderstatingofthemarketandthe tradingpotentialoftheassetinthatmarket Hotelvaluationtechniques NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows NetPresentValueoffuturecashflowsgeneratedbytheproperty SingleCapRateMultipliersIncomeCapitalization DCFApproach derivingahotel svaluebyapplyinganappropriatediscountratetoaprojectionofthehotel sestimatedfuturecashflow IncomeCapitalization DCFApproach Weassumeaholdingperiodof10yearsIneachyearweestimatethetradingpotentialofthepropertyIneachyearweestimatetheoperationalresultofthepropertyWeassumeasaleattheendofyear10 TerminalAssetValue EBITDAs TerminalAssetValuetime IncomeCapitalization DCFApproach EBITDAs TerminalAssetValue Years 0 10 IncomeCapitalization DCFApproach EBITDAs TerminalAssetValue Years 0 10 IncomeCapitalization DCFApproach EBITDAs TerminalAssetValue Years 0 10 IncomeCapitalization DCFApproach TerminalAssetValue EBITDAs 10 Years 0 DiscountingFactor IncomeCapitalization DiscountFactorDISCOUNTFACTOR Reflectthetimevalueofmoney Reflecttheriskoftheinvestment WACC WeightedAverageCostofCapital IncomeCapitalization Example Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 WACCValue say 12 55 16 561 80416 600 000 WACCCalculationWACC12 55 IncomeCapitalization limitations USES Providesabetteroverviewoftheproperty stradingpotential Reflectsavaluebasedonfutureandnotonpresentorpast Takeintoaccountoperationsandmanagementcharacteristics possibilityto Takeintoaccountmarket widechanges Olympic Games NewConferenceCentres etc LIMITATIONS Thevaluerneedstounderstandindepththemarketandthetrading potentialoftheassetinthatmarket Thevaluerneedstounderstandindepththehotelspecificoperation andmanagement Thevaluerneedstobeexperiencedofthehospitalitysectorinorder toestimateallcash flowsthatarethebasisofthevaluation Valuationdatawishlist Whatisimportanttohave Historicaldataforthelocalmarket Historicaldataoftheproperty Profit LossStatements Whatisimportanttoknow understandingofthetradingpotentialofthemarket demand versussupply newsupply Understatingoftradingpotentialoftheproperty market penetrationaprojectionsofmarketpenetration Understandingoftheoperationalsideinordertoproduce representativecashflows Understandingofthefinancialaspects currentLTV equityyield etc andoftheriskconnectedtothisinvestment Comparisonwithstockmarket Twoapproachestovaluation IntrinsicValue isdeterminedbythecashflowsyouexpectthat assettogenerateoveritslifeandhowuncertainyoufeelaboutthesecashflows Assetswithhighandstablecashflowsshouldworthmorethanassetswithlowandvolatilecashflows RelativeValue inrelativevaluationsassetsarevaluedbylooking athowthemarketpricessimilarassets Thus determiningwhattopayforahouse youwouldlookatwhatsimilar