outline_argument.docx

business#167/32/105/106/104 (#12)the following appeared in a memo from a vice president of alta manufacturing.during the past year, alta manufacturing had thirty percent more on-the-job accidents than nearby panoply industries, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. experts believe that a significant contributing factor in many accidents is fatigue caused by sleep deprivation among workers. therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at alta, we recommend shortening each of our three work shifts by one hour. if we do this, our employees will get adequate amounts of sleep.write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.1. pi事故率不一定比am低，可能有谎报瞒报的人。而且可能原本就没几个人，30%说明不了问题。就算pi事故率比am低的多，也不一定是因为轮班时间短，可能是他们的工作本身比较安全，不容易出现事故。2. 即使两家企业的工种相似，但是am高事故率不一定是因为睡眠不足。专家那么说，但是不一定对，就算对的也可能不适用于am。am可能更多是因为设备老化、人员态度问题。3. 即使am真的因为睡眠不足而有高事故率，那也不能说轮班时间减少就可以降低事故率。因为不能保证这多出来的一个小时会被用于睡觉。有可能时间多了反而会去兼职或者就是有所谓的晚睡强迫症（拖延症procrastination）。4. 缩短轮班时间可能影响工厂的正常运转，导致亏损。所以应该看看有没有别的方法。比如营造更安全的环境、对员工进行安全培训、给员工进行睡眠质量提高的相关教育等。#90/88/9the following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of health naturally, a small but expanding chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.our previous experience has been that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. we should therefore build one of our new stores in plainsville, which clearly has many such residents. plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise equipment are at all-time highs. the local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight-training and aerobics classes are always full. we can even anticipate a new generation of customers: plainsvilles schoolchildren are required to participate in a program called fitness for life, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.1. 跑鞋和运动服销量高不能说明注重健康生活。可能是最近流行或者卖给旅游的人或者正好有体育比赛引发体育热。另外，all-time-high也不能说明问题，可能还是很少。2. 俱乐部训练班的人多不能说明。只有一个俱乐部可能本来就不能招几个人，所以总数还是很少。就算人多，可能只是跟风或者喜欢氛围，并不完全为了健身。3. 小孩要求参加这个项目并不意味这他们就会一直保持或者真正想要注重健康。况且，可能孩子本来就少，那么不能形成大的客流量。4. 即使人们都喜欢健康，也不意味着就要吃健康食品。就算是健康食品，也不意味着要出去吃，可能觉得家里更健康。就算出去吃，也不一定要去nh，因为还有别的更和当地饮食习惯的餐厅。就算现在选择nh也不意味着未来不会改变生活习惯。#169/77 (25)the following appeared in a memo from the mayor of brindleburg to the city council.two years ago, the town of seaside vista opened a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. since then, the seaside vista tourism board has reported a 20% increase in visitors. in addition, local banks reported a steep rise in the number of new business loan applications they received this year. the amount of tax money collected by seaside vista has also increased, allowing the town to announce plans to improve seaside vistas roads and bridges. we recommend building a similar golf course and resort hotel in brindleburg. we predict that this project will generate additional tax revenue that the city can use to fund much-needed public improvements.write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.1. sv这两年来旅游业增长20%都是由于建设了高尔夫和宾馆。首先，两年前开的，现在有增长并不意味着有因果关系。可能是因为两年前实在太差，或者遭遇到了意外事件，这是正常的发展，或者只不过是恢复。2. 税收增长、商业繁荣都是由于建设了高尔夫球馆。就没有别的因素了么？更有可能是因为sv推行了一系列招商引资的计划，或者提高了某些纳税的税率。3. 就算sv的经济发展是由高尔夫建设而造成的，brindleburg就需要学它吗？可能在这个期间，b的经济发展的更好，根本不必要学习，说不定sv发展得慢就是因为这个模式没有b的现行模式好。假设b发展的确实不如它好，b也不一定学习，因为b可能已经有很多这样的地方了并没有起什么作用，或者两年之后的现在已经不适用了。就算没有，建造了以后也不见得竞争的过sv，因为还要看当地的风俗和自然环境。如果当地风俗不喜欢外地来度假的人，可能反而会造成常住人口的流失。如果自然环境不合适，那就招不来顾客，并且可能导致环境破坏的严重后果。因此需要进一步的讨论当地是否需要、适于建造，能不能得到居民认可。4. 就算论者的所有陈述都是真的，所有的假设也都可以被证实，我们也不应该贸然决断。因为我们还应该看一看有没有更好的方法，以更小的投资、更少的对当地环境的影响来获取更大的利益。比如说，可以建造商业区，引进软件设计等低污染高产出的产业等等。#89/86 (241)the following appeared in a memo at xyz company.when xyz lays off employees, it pays delany personnel firm to offer those employees assistance in creating rsums and developing interviewing skills, if they so desire. laid-off employees have benefited greatly from delanys services: last year those who used delany found jobs much more quickly than did those who did not. recently, it has been proposed that we use the less expensive walsh personnel firm in place of delany. this would be a mistake because eight years ago, when xyz was using walsh, only half of the workers we laid off at that time found jobs within a year. moreover, delany is clearly superior, as evidenced by its bigger staff and larger number of branch offices. after all, last year delanys clients took an average of six months to find jobs, whereas walshs clients took nine.write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.1. 作者假设培训过的比没培训过的找工作快就是因为d的培训很有效。其实，有可能是因为选择参加培训的人往往素质更高，更重视再就业，所以事后找的比较快。因此，我们需要考虑这些参加者的本身质量而不能一概而论。2. 把八年前的w的业绩和去年的d的业绩相比较是不对的。首先，提到的使用w的时候一般的被裁掉的人用了一年，但是可能裁掉的人当中只有很小比例的人参加了培训，而他们找的很快。其次，就算当时经过w培训的人找工作需要一年，远远长于现在的d，也不能说明问题。因为八年间劳动市场可能发生了巨大的改变。可能以前的人才流动性比较小，或者刚好经济萧条就业本身就特别困难，以前被裁掉的人不像现在裁掉的人一样，当初的裁员只针对那些确实做的很不好的人，他们难以找到工作也是能够理解的。由此看来，直接的比较是不明智的，应该获取更有时效性、更有说服力的数据。3. 作者似乎还认为，现在w比d的学员找工作慢就说明w比较差。其实，如果w培训过的人找到的工作普遍比较好，那么时间长一些或许也无可厚非。4. 作者的另一个假设是公司越大，branches越多，服务就越好。但是，有时候公司大人员多只能说明整体效率不高，而更高的学费有可能就是这种管理失误造成的水分。如果再考虑公司本身的财政状况，或许w反而是一个性价比高（high cost effctive）的选择。5. 因此，我们需要验证作者的这些假设。可取的一个办法是进行调查，综合考虑两个企业的各方面信息，包括现在的培训时长、学员口碑、学员层次质量、就职收入情况等等。#117/116/114/78 (41)the following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a food distribution company with food storage warehouses in several cities.recently, we signed a contract with the fly-away pest control company to provide pest control services at our warehouse in palm city, but last month we discovered that over $20,000 worth of food there had been destroyed by pest damage. meanwhile, the buzzoff pest control company, which we have used for many years in palm city, continued to service our warehouse in wintervale, and last month only $10,000 worth of the food stored there had been destroyed by pest damage. even though the price charged by fly-away is considerably lower, our best means of saving money is to return to buzzoff for all our pest control services.write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.1. 一个月说明不了问题，有可能fly-away的上个月才刚刚开始尚未取得成效，或者刚好是业绩不太好的时候，而buzzoff可能正好上个月业绩比较好。比如pc的那批产品本身在包装上有问题。或者pc的气候非常闷热潮湿，不利于害虫防治。又或者pc最近出现了新的虫害，而w没有出现。所以需要更多更详细的数据。2. 就算f的业绩一直不如b，也不能单纯地指责f的工作能力。两地情况不同，比如pc本身害虫比较多而且难以治理。可能pc的东西普遍价格更高，所以就算损失的量小也会造成价格高。这需要看两地的客观条件差异，最好能够参考b在pc的时候业绩如何。3. 即便b的业绩总体来说比f好，也不能武断地说应该将所有的业务都给b。第一还需要考虑价格问题。如果b要比f贵很多，超过了10000的损失差距，那么选择b反而不利于盈利。况且有可能f反而会给予补偿或者其他增值服务，这些远远可以弥补业务上的差距。第二需要考虑b在pc和w做的好，是不是能够在别的地方也做的好。第三要考虑有没有比b做的更好的并且性价比更高的。第四，应该尝试其他可能更有效的途径，比如改进包装、改进灭菌技术、改善仓库环境等。#164/102/100/25 (6)the following was written by a group of developers in the city of monroe.a jazz music club in monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. at present, the nearest jazz club is over 60 miles away from monroe; thus, our proposed club, the c note, would have the local market all to itself. in addition, there is ample evidence of the popularity of jazz in monroe: over 100,000 people attended monroes jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in monroe is jazz nightly. finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. we therefore predict that the c note cannot help but make money.write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.1. 给出的几个证据真的能有效证明当地人喜欢jazz吗？有十万人参加就表示当地人很喜欢jazz吗？一方面，我们或许应该收集更多信息，看看十万人跟以前举办的音乐节参加人数相比有什么变化。若是下降了，那么反而说明jazz潮流不那么盛行了。另一方面，有可能大多数都是外地慕名而来的。广播收听率最高不等于大家都喜欢听jazz。可能刚好节目时间是上下班时间或者其他黄金时间，而且别的广播的节目更加无聊，所以大家才选择收听的。一些jazz音乐家在这里定居也不能说明问题，倒是很可能因为当地人不怎么热衷jazz，不容易被打扰才定居的。2. 这个调查也不能说明m的俱乐部就能赚钱。首先，这是一个全国的调查，所以对于m当地可能并不适用。另外，人均每年一千美元可能更多的是买cd，听大型演唱会，学习乐器等等，很可能很少用在club。所以，应该好好了解当地人对于club的需求度。3. 就算当地人喜欢jazz，喜欢在club娱乐，也不能说明c note能赚钱。难道他们就一定会选择去c note吗？有可能c note比现有的那个club更远。或者大家更喜欢现有的，处于怀旧或者喜欢那里的气氛等等。其实，从一开始我们就应当注意到，当地只有一家很远的club，是一个有趣的现象。要么当地人根本就对club没什么需求，要么说明那一家club特别有竞争力，以至于其他club无法与他竞争，比如那些音乐家都只在那里定期演出。因此，确定开张之前，不妨先调查当地潜在顾客对club的偏好，是否有音乐家愿意合作，以及他们是否有去一个新开club的意愿。#129/128/35/52 (185)the following appeared in a letter from the owner of the sunnyside towers apartment complex to its manager.last week, all the showerheads in the first three buildings of the sunnyside towers complex were modified to restrict maximum water flow to one-third of what it used to be. although actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available, the change will obviously result in a considerable savings for sunnyside corporation, since the corporation must pay for water each month. except for a few complaints about low water pressure, no problems with showers have been reported since the adjustment. clearly, modifying showerheads to restrict water flow throughout all twelve buildings in the sunnyside towers complex will increase our profits further.write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.1. 作者假设水流变小，用水量就会减少，而这并不是那么理所当然的。首先，这需要用水时间的延长在三倍之内。如果使用者因为水小就大量延长了使用时间，那么可能起不到节水效果，说不定还会造成更大的浪费。其次，有可能一些人原本并不是将水龙头开到最大的，说不定还不到三分之一，那么，现在水小了，他们将水开到最大，反而会导致用水量增加。2. 没有报告不代表没有潜在问题。这次执行时间才一个星期，并不能代表全年的情况。可能这些楼的人本身很少，或者正好这个星期大多不在家，才导致投诉少。另外一些需要较高水压才能工作的设备，比如燃气热水器，可能就不能正常工作了，可能会消耗更多的燃气，导致成本升高。或者这些设备，虽然暂时还没有出现问题，以后可能会出现故障。3. 推行到全部的楼，如果要使得同样可行，必须保证其余的楼也像这三栋楼一样可以节水，投诉少，而且没有出现故障。但是，这样的假设显然是没有依据的。这些楼住的人差异可能很大，比如其余楼住的人多，对物业要求高，那么投诉可能会非常多；而且各楼的设备可能有差异，也不能确定是否安全。4. 即便不会造成事故并且能够节水，也不见得就能盈利。可能一些人投诉无果，就会选择搬离这个地方或者可能在调整龙头时造成破损需要维修，那么相比较减小水流节约下的那一点点经费，反而会遭受更重大的损失。更何况，万一水费上调呢？#161/127/126/113 (180)the following is a recommendation from the personnel director to the president of acme publishing company.many other companies have recently stated that having their employees take the easy read speed-reading course has greatly improved productivity. one graduate of the course was able to read a 500-page report in only two hours; another graduate rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year. obviously, the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday. moreover, easy read would cost acme only $500 per employeea small price to pay when you consider the benefits. included in this fee is a three-week seminar in spruce city and a lifelong subscription to the easy read newsletter. clearly, acme would benefit greatly by requiring all of our employees to take the easy read course.write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.1. 作者认为所有的参加培训的人都可以像提到的两个员工一样获益。但事实上，很可能大多数的人并没有太明显的进步。而且，第一个人虽然能看的很快，但是不一定内容掌握的就好，如果只有数量没有质量，那也是没有意义的。第二个人晋升很快，但是这不一定跟参加培训有因果关系。说不定他是因为业务水平高、工作能力强等等。2. 虽然别的几个企业获益匪浅，并不意味着acme也能够有很大收获。因为不同的公司面对的工作是不一样的，人员条件也是不一样的。如果acme主要出版的是漫画、儿童读物之类文字很少的书籍和刊物，那么就算员工阅读能力强了也没太大的用处。更何况，有可能当初acme招聘时选拔的人本身就有特别强的阅读能力，甚至超过了那些培训师，那就更加没有参加培训的必要了。3. 就算这个培训真的对acme可能特别有效，也没有必要让所有的员工都去参加。因为有些员工并不需要特别强的阅读能力，比如摄影师、美术编辑等等。如果甚至连后勤员工也需要参加这样的培训的话，是不是有点可笑了？4. 作者所期待的benefit是建立在培训后员工的高效工作带来的收益能够outweigh培训投入的。可是，他或她显然考虑的太简单了。因为虽然培训费是500元每人，但是可能还需要别的费用。而且，如果员工很多的话，比如一千人，那就需要五十万，不是一个小数目啊。另外，最disastrous的是，培训的三个星期，员工必然不能正常工作，这将会造成巨大的损失。在劳动力流动性如此大的今天，如果培训后短期内员工跳槽，成为企业对手的雇员，那更将无法平衡之前的支出。#155/154/150/146/145/60the following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.homes in the northeastern united states, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. because of these developments, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in consolidated industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.1. 温度比平常低是不是就意味着需要消耗更多的油？有可能低的量不是很多，只有两三度，那么按照以往的用量就够了。在这种情况下，如果低温的时间也没有延长，那就完全没必要增加油料用量。天气预报说这种天气会持续下去，可是天气很多变，难以准确预测。这就是劳伦兹所说的混沌学说，或者更形象点，蝴蝶效应。因此，显然还需要更多的数据来说明家庭平均用油量将会增加。2. 新建的房子并不一定用油作为取暖燃料。虽然这是传统，但是，如果有更好的选择的话，很可能就会抛弃这一传统了。说不定当地天然气价格便宜，因为新发现了天然气资源，又如果天然气更加安全、更加环保、供暖效果更好，那么新房子很可能就会设计成适于使用天然气的结构。而那些以往用油的人，也有可能跟着改变选择。这将会导致当地的油的需求量不增反减。或许难以想象，但是不能否认一种可能性，就是产生了一种科技，可以通过墙体保暖维持温度，根本用不着附加的取暖了。所以，必须要进行相关调查，关注当地能源结构是否已经或将要发生变化，是否有取代燃油取暖的方式，防止出现严重的投资失误。3. 就算当地油的需求量将会大大增加，那么要使得ci的销量增加必须保证当地比较稳定的一个群体都会向零售商购买。因为，当油量上升时，很可能一些人为了减小开支，转向批发商。而这势必不利于ci的盈利。所以，投资公司必须了解当地的市场是如何配置的，特别是零售商与批发商之间的关系。#133(131/130/15/51)the following memorandum is from the business manager of happy pancake house restaurants.butter has now been replaced by margarine in happy pancake house restaurants throughout the southwestern united states. only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 is happy with the change. furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term butter to refer to either butter or margarine. thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter and to increase profitability, the happy pancake house should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well.write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.1. 经理给出的数据以及建立在数据上的推理都是值得怀疑的。2%的投诉率并不意味着98%的满意率。这里，他或她显然犯了一个非此即彼的错误。事实上，可能98%里有很多只是不习惯于投诉，他们更倾向于向朋友亲人抱怨，或者下次就不再来了。更可能的是，这些没有抱怨的人只是不觉得太生气，而并不是对于这个改变很开心。另外，服务生的汇报也不太可信，因为很多人可能觉得跟服务生投诉根本没有用。或者这些服务生由于工作压力大或者工作热情不高而忽视了顾客的不满。2. 并没有证据表明那些未向服务生抱怨的顾客不能分辨或者将两者用butter通指。或许这些人只是暂时没有注意到这一点，或者不愿意破坏就餐气氛。如果真的是不能分辨的话，有可能以后他们发现后会觉得被骗了，对这家店的评价会很差。因此，我认为商店还不如直接对顾客们进行一项系统的调查，比如等餐期间将问卷和笔放在餐桌上，获取相对可信的数据。3. 就算这种行为在当地获得了相对认可，还需要确定的是东南和东北是否能够同样接受。如果那些地方的人更挑剔，或者由于文化等问题根本无法接受margarine，或者市场竞争特别激烈而别的店提供butter，那么这种措施将会使该连锁店陷入非常不好的境地。所以，不能盲目地进行类比和推广，而应该深入了解地区的情况。#99/98/7 (44)the following is a recommendation from the business manager of monarch books.since its opening in collegeville twenty years ago, monarch books has developed a large customer base due to its reader-friendly atmosphere and wide selection of books on all subjects. last month, book and bean, a combination bookstore and coffee shop, announced its intention to open a collegeville store. monarch books should open its own in-store caf in the space currently devoted to childrens books. given recent national census data indicating a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten, sales of childrens books are likely to decline. by replacing its childrens books section with a caf, monarch books can increase profits and ward off competition from book and bean.write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.1. 类比。a、bab宣布要开，并不一定成功。b、bab成功了会威胁mb。对象风格不同。c、mb有足够资金。2. 儿童书销量减少。a、全国不是当地。b、比例小数量增。c、人少买的多。3. profit。a、不喜欢，嘈杂气味。b、运营成本增加。c、儿童图书是利润最高却没有了。d、失去儿童书籍这一传统优势，以前顺便自己买书的家长不来了。4. 想别的办法。增加图书种类；优化环境；其他地方如隔壁，打通开咖啡厅。#94/58/34 (127)the vice president of human resources at climpson industries sent the following recommendation to the companys president.a recent national survey found that the majority of workers with access to the internet at work had used company computers for personal or recreational activities, such as banking or playing games. in an effort to improve our employees productivity, we should implement electronic monitoring of employees internet use from their workstations. using electronic monitoring software is the best way to reduce the number of hours climpson employees spend on personal or recreational activities. we predict that installing software to monitor employees internet use will allow us to prevent employees from wasting time, thereby increasing productivity and improving overall profits.write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the pr