如何分析并作出正确的决策HowToAutomateSm.ppt

2006 VentanaResearch Inc HowToAutomateSmartDecisionMakingwithBI Analytics MarkSmith CEO EVPResearch 2006 VentanaResearch Inc 2 Agenda Whatis decisionmanagementtechnology Whatkindsofdecisionsshouldnotbeautomated Whatarerule basedsystemsandwhyaretheyadvantageous What saremainthedifferencesbetweenBI AnalyticsandDecisionManagement Howaretheabovepractices technologiesmeasured 2006 VentanaResearch Inc 3 ExcessiveFocusonUnderstanding RearView HistoricalPerspective 2006 VentanaResearch Inc 4 PerformanceManagementProvidesEmphasisonImprovementandAutomationofDecisions Amethodologythatexaminesthepeople process informationandtechnologyandaprocessthatalignsbusinessandtechnologytoimproveresults PerformanceManagementProcess Understand Comprehendthestatusofpeople organizationandbusinessprocesses Optimize Planforfutureactionsanddecisionsthatcanachievetheobjectivesandgoals Align Communicateandprovideguidance objectives goalsandincentives VentanaResearchPerformanceCycle PerformanceManagement 2006 VentanaResearch Inc 5 DecisionManagement Improvebusinessdecisionsthroughdesign deploymentandrefinementofoperationaldecisionmakingproceduresDecisionManagementhelpsenterprisemakebetter moreconsistentbusinessdecisionsMaximizerevenue minimizecosts streamlinebusinessprocessesViaWeb OLTP callcenter andbatchapplicationsAgileevolutionofdecisionmakingtomeetnewbusinesschallengesGivedataanalysts businesspolicymakers corporateportfoliomanagers anditimplementerstoolstounderstandanduseeachothersinformation Useanalysisofthepasttomodifydecisionstrategiesinthepresenttocorrectlymanageandguidefutureactivities WhatisIt 2006 VentanaResearch Inc 6 DecisionManagementExamples Customermanagementdecisionshowtohandleparticularrequestsforservices howtotreatcustomersincollections whethertoincreaseexposuretocurrentcustomersthroughadditionalcreditoffers etc Supplierselectiondecisionswhichsuppliertouseforagivenorderofpartsbasedoncost pastdeliveryhistory customerpreferences etc Advertiserselectiondecisionswhichadvertisershouldbeselectedforagivenadvertisementopportunitygivenexistingcontracts typeofopportunity recentlyshownads etc Auditselectiondecisionswhichtaxpayersshouldbeselectedforauditinggivenexperiencewithpreviousaudits pastfilings currentpolicies etc 2006 VentanaResearch Inc 7 ExaminingDecisionCyclesforAutomation 1 RecognizeThreat Opp 3 SetGoals Objectives 2 UnderstandFactors 4 DeviseSolutions 5 CompareSolutions 6 DecideonActionPlan 7 ExecuteActionPlan 8 ReviewActionresults InformationAcquisition GoalSetting DecisionMaking ActionCoordination Areasoffacilitationofthedecisionmakingprocess AutomatedDecisionSystems TraditionalBIuse 2006 VentanaResearch Inc 8 DecisionManagementandAutomation AutomateddoesnotmeanlightsoutDecisionreviewsometimeoralwaysrequiredDecisionexceptionmanagementRulesenginemaintenanceandupdates Input AutomatedDecisions Models Rules Reviews Exceptions 2006 VentanaResearch Inc 9 ApplicationorUserrequestingadecision DecisionManagementFramework DecisionManagementApplicationorInterface PredictiveModels DevelopmentEnvironment BusinessRuleEngine DataSources ThirdPartyApplicationsorInterfaces Repository 2006 VentanaResearch Inc 10 BusinessRules DecisionManagement RulesareconditionalstatementsofhowtorespondtodataoreventswithabusinesstransactionIfFerrariis 30 thenbuyquicklyBusinessrulestakemanyformsPolicies practices andproceduresyouusetomakeoperationaldecisionsStrategiesbasedonhistoricaldataandbusinessacumenDecisionTreesDecisionTablesRulescarryoutactionssuggestedbymodelingandoptimizationstrategies Businessrulesarefoundinyourcompanypolicymanuals inlinesofcodeinlegacysystems interdepartmentalmemos andinthemindsofyourexperiencedemployees 2006 VentanaResearch Inc 11 BusinessRules DecisionManagement RulesEnginesEvolutionofExpertsystemsTwostepprocessCreaterulesusingexpertsDeploytherulesetWhat snewGraphicaldevelopmentandadministrationMatureruledevelopmentenvironmentsRobustplatformsIntegrationwithcomplimentarytechnologiesAccessibletobusinessmanagers non technologistsIndustryexperiencewithsuccessandfailure 2006 VentanaResearch Inc 12 PredictiveModeling DecisionManagement PredictiveModelingAppliedstatisticsandotherdataminingapproachesRegression NeuralNetworksClassification Segmentation2stepprocessCreatethemodel usethemodelWhat snewImproved graphicaluserinterfacesAutomationofmodelcreationIntegrationwithrulesenginesIndustryexperiencewithsuccessandfailure 2006 VentanaResearch Inc 13 DecisionManagement MaturityCurve BusinessRulesAutomationLeveragedExpertiseAutomatedDecisionsNoOptimization DecisionRefinementLeveragedExpertiseAutomatedDecisionsManualTuning AdaptiveControlAutomatedaccessAutomatedprocessingDecisionTestingManualTuning PredictiveModelingAutomatedaccessAutomatedprocessingDecisionTestingPredictiveModelsManualanalysisManualdecisions DecisionOptimizationAutomatedaccessAutomatedprocessingRoutedDecisionsPredictiveModelsManualanalysisManualdecisions 2006 VentanaResearch Inc 14 DecisionManagementApplicationNeeds E Commercenowadrivingfactorinreal timetransactions 80Bannualrunrate Q4CY2004 USCensusBureau 29 fromQ3CY20042 oftotalUSsalesRetailingMerchantSurveyAmongTop5keysellingtoolsCross sell Up sell Promotions Sales SpecialsCommerceFraud2004On linecommercefraudlosses 2 6B CyberSourcesurvey 2004On linelossesgrowth25 30 growthexpectedManualreviewincreasedSpeedofe commerceInteractivetransactionratesnow10 20secondsforleadingsites Keynote Skillsandturnoverofworkforce10 30 turnover CallCenterMgmtReview 2006 VentanaResearch Inc 15 BestPracticesinIdentificationofDecisionManagement HighdecisionvolumeManualoversightisnottechnicallyoreconomicallyfeasible PotentialforrespectivecostsavingsorincrementalrevenueInconsistentworkforcedecisionskillsHighemployeeturnoverLowpositioncompensationNeedforself serviceBusinessdemandapresenceonthewebServicesrequireinstantdecisionmakingonpricing packaging deliveryandotherfacets Web sitevisitorsexpectinstantresponse PastindicatesthefutureDecisioninput outcomerelationshipcanbemeasuredandmodeledDecisionsconsistentovertimeInternetisakeybusinessenablerCustomers andemployeesexpectfast high valueinteractionsComparableperformance personalizationandaccommodationareacriticalsuccessfactorforyourbusiness 2006 VentanaResearch Inc 16 ConvergingTechnologiesfromBusinessIntelligencetoDecisionManagement Tools Applications Monitoring Alerting PlatformandServerTechnology Dashboard Scorecard InformationManagement MasterDataMgt Analytics Location Reporting Visualization IntegrationManagement Application Data Info 1995 2004 Query AnalysisPlatformsReporting Modeling AnalyticsRules WorkflowMasterDataManagement 2006 Rules Workflow DataMining Modeling 2006 VentanaResearch Inc 17 BusinessUnderstanding DecisionManagementEnablesPerformanceManagement PerformanceManagement ShrinkingResponseTime InconsistentDecisionMaking LimitedDecisionCompetence DecisionRisk DecisionMgtBenefits EncodedDecisionProcess ImprovedROI FacilitatedDecisions AutomatedDecisions 2006 VentanaResearch Inc 18 FasterresponsetocustomersandpartnersGreaterconsistencyofdecisionmakingLowercostofdecisionmakingOveralldecisionoutcomeimprovementKnowledgeworkersavailableforhighervaluetasksITcostsloweredasapplicationdesignaresimplified Summary DecisionManagementispartofPerformanceManagementandExpandsyourBusinessIntelligenceandAnalyticsEfforts Value 2006 VentanaResearch Inc 19 VentanaResearchAnalystSummit Connections2006 SanFranciscoinJune June11 14inSanFranci