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14 InvestmentSpending ItemItemItemEtc Introduction Investment LinksthepresenttothefutureLinksthegoodsandmoneymarketsDrivesmuchofthebusinesscycleInthischapterwestudyhowinvestmentdependsoninterestratesandincomeFigure14 1illustratesthevolatilityofinvestmentbycomparinginvestmentandGDP InsertFigure14 1here Introduction ThetheoryofinvestmentisthetheoryofthedemandforcapitalInvestmentistheflowofspendingthataddstothestockofcapitalBothGDPandinvestmentareflowvariablesCapitalisthedollarvalueofallthebuildings machines andinventoriesatagivenpointintime stockvalueInvestmentistheamountspentbybusinessestoaddtotheexistingcapitalstockoveragivenperiod Flowofinvestmentisquitesmallcomparedtothestockofcapital TheDesiredCapitalStock Firmsusecapital alongwithlaborandotherresources toproduceoutput ThegoalofagivenfirmistomaximizeprofitsWhendecidingtheoptimallevelofcapital firmsmustbalancethecontributionthatmorecapitalmakestotheirrevenuesagainstthecostofacquiringadditionalcapital Themarginalproductofcapitalistheincreaseinoutputproducedbyusing1moreunitofcapitalinproduction Therental user costofcapitalisthecostofusing1moreunitofcapitalinproduction TheDesiredCapitalStock Toderivetherentalcostofcapital firmsfinancethepurchaseofcapitalbyborrowingovertime ataninterestrateofiInthepresenceofinflation thenominaldollarvalueofcapitalrisesovertimeRealcostofcapital nominalinterestrate nominalcapitalgainAtthetimethefirmmakesaninvestment thenominalinterestrateisknown buttheinflationrateforthecomingyearisnotRealcostofborrowingistheexpectedrealinterestrate Capitalwearsoutovertime mustincludedepreciation dThecompleteformulafortherentalcostofcapitalis Thecompleteformulafortherentalcostofcapitalis TheDesiredStockofCapital FirmsaddcapitaluntilthemarginalreturnofthelastunitaddeddropstotherentalcostofcapitalDiminishingmarginalproductofcapitalmeansthateachsuccessiveunitofcapitalyieldslessthanthepreviousunit Figure14 2Anincreaseintherentalcostofcapitalcanonlybejustifiedbyanincreaseinthemarginalproductofcapital andalowerlevelofKThegeneralrelationshipamongthedesiredcapitalstock K rc andoutputis 1 InsertFigure14 2here FromDesiredCapitalStocktoInvestment Figure14 4illustratesanincreaseinthedemandforcapitalstockasarightwardshiftinthedemandforcapitalscheduleAttheinitiallevelofcapital K0 thepriceofcapitalisjusthighenoughtogenerateenoughinvestment I0 toreplacethedepreciatingcapitalIntheLR supplyofnewcapitalisveryelastic sotheincreaseindemandismetwithoutmuchchangeinpriceIntheSR pricerisestoP1 increasinginvestmentflowtoI1 InsertFigure14 4here CapitalStockAdjustment TheflexibleacceleratormodelcanbeusedtoexplainthespeedatwhichfirmsplantoadjusttheircapitalstockBasicnotion thelargerthegapbetweentheexistingcapitalstockandthedesiredcapitalstock themorerapidafirm srateofinvestmentFirmsplantocloseafraction ofthegapbetweentheactualanddesiredcapitalstockseachperiodCapitalattheendoflastperiodisK 1Thegapbetweenactualanddesiredcapitalstockis K K 1 AfirmplanstoaddafractionofthegaptolastperiodsstockActualcapitalstockattheendofthecurrentperiodisthen 2 CapitalStockAdjustment ToincreasethecapitalstockfromK 1toK0 thefirmmustachievenetinvestmentof 3 Figure14 5illustrateshowthecapitalstockadjustsfromaninitiallevelofK 1tothedesiredlevelK UpperpanelshowsthestockofcapitalLowerpanelshowsthecorrespondinglevelofI InsertFigure14 5here CapitalStockAdjustment ToincreasethecapitalstockfromK 1toK0 thefirmmustachievenetinvestmentof 3 Equation 3 showsinvestmentspendingasafunctionofK andK 1AnyfactorthatincreasesK increasestherateofinvestmentInvestmentcontainsaspectsofdynamicbehavior InsertFigure14 5here InvestmentSubsectors Figure14 6demonstratesthevolatilityofthethreeinvestmentsubsectors BusinessfixedinvestmentResidentialinvestmentInventoryinvestmentBusinessfixedinvestmentisthelargestofthethreeInventoryinvestmentisthemostvolatile InsertFigure14 6here InvestmentSubsectors Figure14 7showsresidentialinvestmentspendingasapercentageofGDPANDthenominalmortgageinterestrateovertimeResidentialinvestmentishighwhenmortgageratesarelowResidentialinvestmentislowwhenmortgageratesarehigh InsertFigure14 7here Mortgageinterestratesarethecostofborrowingmoneyforhousing ascostsincrease demandforfundsandinvestmentdecline roleformonetarypolicy InvestmentSubsectors Inventoriesincluderawmaterials goodsintheproductionprocess andcompletedgoodsheldbyfirmsintheanticipationoftheproducts saleFigure14 8showstheratioofmanufacturinginventoriestosalesovertimeUntil1990 ratioonrangeof13to17percentSincethenhasfallentocloseto10percent just in timemanufacturingtechniques InsertFigure14 8here InvestmentSubsectors Firmsholdinventoriesforseveralreasons Tomeetfuturedemandforgoods becausegoodscannotbeinstantlymanufacturedorobtainedtomeetdemandItislesscostlyforafirmtoordergoodslessfrequentlyinlar
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