青年女装预测案例.doc

某青年女装十三年中每个季度的销售额及其相关影响因素的数据如表3-1所示，取前十二年的数据建立数学模型，其中购买力是指人均购买的能力，单位：元；文化程度中1代表初中文凭，2代表高中文凭，3代表大学以上文凭；生产状况中0代表稳步生产，1代表加班。用多元线性回归法进行预测，求出其数学模型，并进行误差及精度检验。表3-1 销售数据和影响因素的数据时间（t）季度(X1)男女比例(X3)购买力(X2)人均购买数(X4)文化程度(X5)生产状况(X6)人口数(X7)销售额Y123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051521993 12341994 12341995 12341996 12341997 12341998 12341999 12342000 12342001 12342002 12342003 12342004 12342005 12341212111211109910918121111111088101015161616152118151813151415149151614192013161616161212149811123503073183043024294544404553901333503513833603833403024004551131981992009797110107104121199360307318949714011398972322252502502323504003512623602903808888888888488888888846664444446888.444446666688884841111111111211111111131113222221111.313121111111112110000000000100000000011111111111000.111111111100001011651301501501401982202152251901151651531751751701601401502259595978588468790951139021520021093889095.48100105100881001651751531451632431903017.603043.542094.352809.843274.803163.282114.313024.573327.483493.482439.933490.793685.083661.232378.433459.553849.633701.182642.383585.524078.663907.062828.464089.504339.614148.602916.454084.644242.423997.582881.014036.234360.334360.533172.184223.764690.484694.483342.354577.634965.465026.053470.244525.945258.715189.583596.763881.605349.375261.713655.125043.65其数学模型为： （3-15）表3-3 预测值及其它参数年份销售额Y预测值 1993 12341994 12341995 12341996 12341997 12341998 12341999 12342000 12342001 12342002 12342003 12342004 12343017.63043.542094.352809.843274.83163.282114.313024.573327.483493.482439.933490.793685.083661.232378.433459.553849.633701.182642.383585.524078.663907.062828.464089.54339.614148.62916.454084.644242.423997.582881.014036.234360.334360.533172.184223.764690.484694.483342.354577.634965.465026.053470.244525.945258.715189.583596.763881.62798.392800.6752800.092800.8342962.2892955.542954.2112954.9553115.5073118.9613132.6193121.0873282.3833280.6823281.9043280.6823444.3163446.3353441.1273438.2043617.7283613.2113613.1583613.1053779.9273779.9273779.2363779.3963940.9043940.0013935.8553927.2994091.4644090.884107.5674102.6254261.6884263.1234263.924263.9734418.1484418.524417.1914417.1914579.4964573.2254570.5684573.172-672.88-646.94-1596.1-880.64-415.68-527.2-1576.2-665.91-363-197-1250.6-199.69-5.4048-29.255-1312.1-230.93159.14510.6952-1048.1-104.96388.175216.575-862.02399.015649.125458.115-774.03394.155551.935307.095-809.47345.745669.845670.045-518.3533.275999.9951004-348.13887.1451274.981335.57-220.24835.4551568.231499.1-93.725191.115219.21242.865-705.749.00565312.511207.74-839.969.6145211.973374.519-692.69369.703402.697380.548-903.47178.868405.314254.845-798.75147.316460.932293.849-784.7476.395559.683368.673-862.79305.244301.51657.5795-1054.8108.931268.866269.65-935.39121.135428.792431.357-921.57313.657547.312607.53-946.95108.749679.214616.355-973.81-691.57-892.1-889.8-890.4-889.7-728.2-734.9-736.3-735.5-575-571.5-557.9-569.4-408.1-409.8-408.6-409.8-246.2-244.1-249.4-252.3-72.76-77.27-77.33-77.3889.44389.44388.75288.911250.42249.52245.37236.81400.98400.4417.08412.14571.2572.64573.44573.49727.66728.03726.71726.71889.01882.74880.08882.69-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-4.5-4.5-4.5-4.5-3.5-3.5-3.5-3.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-1.5-1.5-1.5-1.5-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.50.50.50.50.51.51.51.51.52.52.52.52.53.53.53.53.54.54.54.54.55.55.55.55.57747.72026.93138.31765.71601.72789636872316913725716389166367747.77924.7146469608.1146466087.21601.71905037257221954093.33966.43841.42721827218230982401924957198753966.49608.12026.93138.3665532721814879221952688927218898.751367.5143.5143.5898.757747.7190507924.7表4-1服装厂销售额的十二年数据季度（1）t（2）销售额Y（3）四项平均（4）居中平均TC（5）长期趋势T（7）周期变动C（8）（%）1993 12341994 12341995 12341996 12341997 12341998 12341999 12342000 12342001 12342002 12342003 12342004 123 41234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647483017.603043.542094.352809.843274.803163.282114.313024.573327.483493.482439.933490.793685.083661.232378.433459.553849.633701.182642.383585.524078.663907.062828.464089.504339.614148.602916.454084.644242.423997.582881.014036.234360.334360.533172.184223.764690.484694.483342.354577.634965.465026.053470.244525.945258.715189.583596.763881.60-2741.3332805.6332835.5682840.5582894.242907.412989.963071.3653187.923277.323319.2583303.8833296.0733337.213347.1983413.1853444.6783501.9353553.4053599.9253725.923791.1583851.5433873.543872.3253848.0283810.2733801.4133789.313818.7883909.5253982.3184029.24111.7384195.2254237.7684326.2354394.984477.8734509.8454496.9234570.2354611.1184642.7484481.663-2773.4832820.62838.0632867.3992900.8252948.6853030.6633129.6433232.623298.2893311.573299.9783316.6413342.2043380.1913428.9313473.3063527.673576.6653662.9233758.5393821.353862.5413872.9333860.1763829.153805.8433795.3613804.0493864.1563945.9214005.7594070.4694153.4814216.4964282.0014360.6084436.4264493.8594503.3844533.5794590.6764626.9334562.205-75.51336699.618521115.38858110.318872.886506102.57352109.79382111.6255375.478405105.8364111.27894110.9471271.712007103.51104113.88793107.9397676.076793101.63989114.03528106.665175.254246107.01715112.35116107.117875.55225106.67224111.47124105.3280575.73536104.45307110.50221108.8565377.931565101.69204111.24118109.6328576.648724103.18283110.49435111.6060876.54526898.589832113.65435113.75157-2852.9642891.9182930.8732969.8273008.7823047.7363086.693125.6453164.5993203.5533242.5083281.4623320.4163359.3713398.3253437.2793476.2343515.1883554.1433593.0973632.0513671.0063709.963748.9143787.8693826.8233865.7773904.7323943.6863982.6414021.5954060.5494099.5044138.4584177.4124216.3674255.3214294.2754333.234372.1844411.1384450.0934489.0474528.0024566.9564605.91-97.2140797.5338796.8333696.5510396.4119596.7500298.18486100.1279102.1494102.9572102.1299100.564299.886399.4889899.4663999.7571399.91578100.3551100.6337101.9433103.4825104.0955104.1127103.3081101.9089100.060898.449697.1990396.4592297.0249898.1183298.6506699.29175100.363100.9356101.5567102.4742103.3102103.7069103.0008102.7757103.1591103.0716100.7554-表4-3时间序列分解法预测值季度TSC销售额预测值1993 12341994 12341995 12341996 12341997 12341998 12341999 12342000 12342001 12342002 12342003 12342004 1234 2852.9642891.9182930.8732969.8273008.7823047.7363086.693125.6453164.5993203.5533242.5083281.4623320.4163359.3713398.3253437.2793476.2343515.1883554.1433593.0973632.0513671.0063709.963748.9143787.8693826.8233865.7773904.7323943.6863982.6414021.5954060.5494099.5044138.4584177.4124216.3674255.3214294.2754333.234372.1844411.1384450.0934489.0474528.0024566.9564605.91 1.12141.09390.75361.03121.12141.09390.75361.03121.12141.09390.75361.03121.12141.09