经济相互依存性.ppt

1 TheInternationalEconomy Chapter1 2 KeyConceptsandTerms Economicinterdependence经济相互依存性Lawofcomparativeadvantage比较优势原理 3 I Ever increasingDegreeofEconomicInterdependence Reflectsthehistoricalevolutionoftheworld seconomicandpoliticalorder Hasbecomemuchmoresophisticatedinrecentyears Hasuneveneffectsondifferentcountriesanddifferenteconomicsectorswithinacountry 4 II DrivingForcesbehindGlobalization TechnologicalchangeTradeliberalizationFinancialliberalizationGlobalproduction 5 Case theU SasanOpenEconomy TheU S economyhasbecomeincreasinglyintegratedintotheworldeconomy Suchintegrationinvolvesanumberofdimensions includingtradeofgoodsandservices financialmarkets thelaborforce ownershipofproductionfacilities anddependenceonimportedmaterials 6 Table1 1ExportsofGoodsandServicesasapercentageofGrossDomesticProduct GDP 1999 7 Table1 2LeadingTradingPartnersoftheUnitedStates 1998 8 III WhyisInternationalTradeImportant AccordingtothelawofComparativeAdvantage thecitizensofeachnationcangainbyspendingmoreoftheirtimeandresourcesdoingthosethingswheretheyhavearelativeadvantage Internationaltradealsoresultsingainsfromthecompetitiveprocess 9 IV CommonFallaciesofInternationalTrade Tradeisazero sumactivity ifonetradepartygains theothermustlose Importsreduceemploymentandactasadragontheeconomy Tariffs quotas andotherimportrestrictionswillsavejobsandpromoteahigherlevelofemployment 10 V ConsequencesofIncreasedOpenness curtailinflationarypressuresathome placesconstraintsonwagesfordomesticworkers reduceoreliminatethecrowding outofprivateinvestment makethedomesticeconomyvulnerabletodisturbancesinitiatedoverseas affectsfiscalpolicy 11 VI IsBusinessCycleDisappearingintheProcessofGlobalization Economicrestructuremakeseconomylessvulnerabletomajoroscillations Globalproductionandinternationaltradeenablesaneconomytoexpandwithoutinflationaryrisks Economicrecessions evenifthereareanyinthefuture arepredictedtooccurinamilderandshortermanner 12 VII InternationalCompetitiveness Firm Industry CompetitivenessANation sCompetitivenessGlobalizationandCompetitiveness 13 Figure1 1ProductivityGapsandGlobalCompetitiveness 14 VIII InternationalTradetoWorkers anOpportunityoraThreat Workersaroundtheglobearelivingincreasinglyintertwinedlives Internationaltradebenefitsmostworkers Butnotallworkersgainfrominternationaltrade 15 Table1 4ArgumentsaboutGlobalization IX HasGlobalizationGoneTooFar 16 Summary Throughoutthepost WorldWarIIera theworld seconomieshavebecomeincreasinglyinterdependentintermsofthemovementofgoodsandservices businessenterprise capital andtechnology TheUnitedStateshasseengrowinginterdependencewiththerestoftheworldinitstradesector financialmarkets ownershipofproductionfacilities andlaborforce 17 Largelyowingtothevastnessandwidediversityofitseconomy theUnitedStatesremainsamongthecountriesforwhichexportsconstituteasmallfractionofnationaloutput Proponentsofanopentradingsystemcontendthatinternationaltraderesultsinhigherlevelsofconsumptionandinvestment lowerpricesofcommodities andawiderrangeofproductchoicesforconsumers Argumentsagainstfreetradetendtobevoicedduringperiodsofexcessproductioncapacityandhighunemployment 18 FoundationsofModernTradeTheory Chapter2 19 KeyConceptsandTerms Autarky自给自主经济Basisfortrade贸易基础Completespecialization完全专业化Constantopportunitycosts机会成本不变Exitbarriers退出避垒Freetrade自由贸易Gainsfrominternationaltrade国际贸易收益 20 Increasingopportunitycosts机会成本递增Labortheoryofvalue劳动价值论Marginalrateoftransformation MRT 边际转换率Mercantilists重商主义Partialspecialization部分专业化Price specie flowdoctrine价格流转学说Principleofabsoluteadvantage绝对优势原理 21 Principleofcomparativeadvantage比较优势原理Productiongainsfromspecialization专业化的生产收益Productionpossibilitiesschedule生产可能性曲线Termsoftrade贸易条件Tradetriangle贸易三角Tradingpossibilitiesline贸易可能性曲线 22 I HistoricalDevelopmentofModernTradeTheory Moderntradetheoryseekstoanswerthefollowingquestions BasisfortradeTermsoftradeGainsfrominternationaltrade 23 I 1 TheMercantilist PromoteafavorabletradebalanceAdvocategovernmentregulationoftrade 24 I 2 DavidHume Price specie flowDoctrine AnIllustrationofprice specie flowdoctrine Inflowofgoldandsilver Moneysupplyincreases Importrises exportdeclines Pricelevelrises Tradesurplus 25 I 3 AdamSmith PrincipleofAbsoluteAdvantage ConceptofcostbasedonlabortheoryofvalueCostdifferencesgovernthemovementofgoodsamongnationsAnationwillimportthosegoodsinwhichithasanabsolutecostdisadvantageandexportthosegoodsinwhichithasanabsolutecostadvantageWorldoutputincreasesbecausetheworldusesitsresourcesmoreefficientlyastheresultofspecializingaccordingtotheprincipleofabsoluteadvantages 26 Table2 1Acaseofabsoluteadvantage AbsoluteadvantageforU S AbsoluteadvantageforU K 27 I 4 DavidRicardo PrincipleofComparativeAdvantage AccordingtoRicardo scomparative advantageprinciple evenifanationhasanabsolutecostdisadvantageintheproductionofbothgoods abasisformutuallybeneficialtrademaystillexist Thelessefficientnationshouldspecializeinandexportthegoodinwhichitisrelativelylessinefficient whereitsabsolutedisadvantageisleast whilemoreefficientnationshouldspecializeinandexportthatgoodinwhichitisrelativelymoreefficient whereitsabsoluteadvantageisgreatest 28 Table2 2Examplesofcomparativeadvantagesininternationaltrade 29 Table2 3AcaseofComparativeAdvantage ComparativeadvantageforU S ComparativeadvantageforU K 30 Table2 4Ricardo sComparative AdvantagePrincipleExpressedinMoneyPrices 31 II ProductionPossibilitiesSchedules Definition Aproductionpossibilitiesscheduleshowsvariousalternativecombinationsoftwogoodsthatanationcanproducewhenallofitsfactorinputsareusedintheirmostefficientmanner Theproductionpossibilitiesscheduleillustratesthemaximumoutputpossibilitiesofanation 32 Figure2 1ProductionPossibilitiesSchedulesandSupplySchedules ConstantOpportunityCosts 33 34 Howdoesaproductionpossibilitiesscheduleillustratetheconceptofcomparativecost MRT MarginalrateoftransformationTheMRTshowtheamountofoneproductanationmustsacrificetogetoneadditionalunitoftheotherproduct Thisrateofsacrificeissometimescalledtheopportunitycostofaproduct 35 III TradingUnderConstant CostConditions ThebasisfortradeanddirectionoftradeProductiongainsfromspecializationConsumptiongainsfromtradeDistributingthegainsfromtradeCompletespecialization 36 III 1 Thebasisfortradeanddirectionoftrade 37 Figure2 2Anillustrationoftradetriangle ProductionpossibilitiesLine Tradetriangle export import Termsoftrade 38 Table2 5GainsfromSpecializationandTrade ConstantOpportunityCosts 39 III 5 CompleteSpecializationunderConstantCosts Accordingtotheprincipleofcomparativeadvantage completespecializationoccursunderconstantopportunitycosts Becauseproductioncostsdonotchangewiththelevelofoutputs anationdoesnotloseitscomparativeadvantage ordisadvantage asitproducesmore orless ofaproduct 40 IV ProductivityandComparativeAdvantage Anation scomparativeadvantagecanbeshiftedfromoneproducttoanotherasitsproductivityinthisproductincreasesovertime ascanbeillustratedbythegraphbelow 100 100 150 MRT 1 0 80 40 160 MRT 0 67 MRT 0 5 MRT 2 0 UnitedStates Japan Autos Autos Computers Computers 41 V TradeRestrictions Traderestrictionsreducetheproductionandconsumptiongainsfromspecializationandtradebydecreasingtheextentofspecializationandthevolumeoftrade 42 Decreasingcost Constantcost Increasingcost VI TradingUnderIncreasingCostConditions Productionpossibilitiesschedulesunderdifferentcostconditions ProductA ProductA ProductA ProductB ProductB ProductB 43 Figure2 6Productionpossibilitiesandsupplyschedulesunderincreasing costconditions IncreasingcostsmeanthattheMRTofwheatintoautosrisesasmoreautosareproduced indicatingthateachadditionalautoproducedrequiresthesacrificeofincreasingamountsofwheat 44 Figure2 7Tradingunderincreasingopportunitycosts Wheat 45 Table2 7GainsfromSpecializationandTrade IncreasingOpportunityCosts 46 PartialSpecializationunderIncreasingCost Tradeunderincreasingcostgenerallyleadseachcountrytospecializeonlypartiallyintheproductionofthegoodinwhichithasacomparativeadvantage Thisisbecauseunitcostsriseaseachnationproducesadditionalamountsofitsexportgood Asthecostdifferentialsamongnationsareeliminated thebasisforcontinuedspecializationdisappears 47 VII ComparativeAdvantageExtendedtoManyProducts Figure2 9HypotheticalSpectrumofComparativeAdvantagesfortheUnitedStatesandJapan Whenalargenumberofgoodsareproducedbytwocountries operationofcomparativeadvantagerequiresthatthegoodsberankedbythedegreeofcomparativecost 48 Figure2 10MultilateralTradeAmongtheUnitedStates Japan andOPEC1 VIII ComparativeAdvantageExtendedtoManyCountries 49 InternationalEquilibrium Chapter3 50 KeyConceptsandTerms Commoditytermsoftrade商品贸易条件Communityindifferencecurve社会无差异曲线Immiserizinggrowth贫困化增长Importanceofbeingunimportant充当不重要角色的重要性Indifferencecurve无差异曲线Marginalrateofsubstitution MRS 边际转换率 51 No tradeboundary不贸易边界Offercurve提供曲线Outerlimitsfortheequilibriumtermsoftrade贸易均衡条件的极限Regionofmutuallybeneficialtrade互惠贸易区域Theoryofreciprocaldemand相互需求理论 52 I IndifferenceCurves Aboutindifferencecurves 1 negativelysloped2 convex bowedin tothediagram sorigin3 itsabsoluteslopeisequaltothemarginalrateofsubstitution MRS 53 II Indifferencecurvesandinternationaltrade Intheabsenceoftrade anationachievesequilibriumatthepointwhereitscommunityindifferencecurveistangenttoitsproductionpossibilitiesschedule 54 Figure3 3Basisfortrade Gainsfromtrade 55 III EquilibriumTermsofTrade C A B D E 0 5 1 0 2 0 0 5 1 0 2 0 1 5 1 5 0 tt1 1 1 ImprovingU S TermsofTrade ImprovingCanadaTermsofTrade Wheat Autos CanadaPriceRatio 2 1 U S PriceRatio 0 5 1 56 IV TheoryofReciprocalDemand FormulatedbyJohnStuartMillThistheorysuggeststhattheactualpriceatwhichtradetakesplacedependsonthetradingpartners interactingdemands Itbestapplieswhenbothnationsareofequaleconomicsize Ifonenationissignificantlylargerthantheother thesmallernationattainsmostofthegainsfromtrade whichischaracterizedastheimportanceofbeingunimportant 57 BrazilCaseofworseningtermsoftrade producesmore losesmore Anationdoesnotnecessarilybecomebetteroffwhenitproducesmore techimprovements productivityincreases excesssupplyofcoffee pricefalls economyworsens 58 Figure3 5ImmiserizingGrowth 59 Thecommoditytermsoftradeisthemostfrequentlyusedmeasureofthedirectionoftradegains V Terms of TradeEstimates 60 TradeModelExtensionsandApplications Chapter4 61 KeyConceptsandTerms Businessservices商业服务Distributionofincome收入分配Dynamiccomparativeadvantage动态比较优势Economiesofscale规模经济Environmentalregulation环境管制Factor endowmenttheory要素禀赋论Factor priceequalization要素价格均等化 62 Heckscher Ohlintheory赫克谢尔 奥林理论Industrialpolicy产业政策Interindustryspecialization产业间专业化Interindustrytrade产业间贸易Intraindustryspecialization产业内专业化Intraindustrytrade产业内贸易 63 Leontiefparadox里昂惕夫之谜Polluter paysprinciple污染者付费原则Productlifecycletheory产品生命周期理论Specific factorstheory特殊要素理论Theoryofoverlappingdemands重叠需求理论Transportationcosts运输成本 64 ReviewofChapter1 3 IntermediateBasisforTradeaccordingtoprevioustradetheories relativepricedifferentialsWhy 65 ExtendedTradeModels Marketpriceisco determinedbysupplyanddemandconditionsFactorstobereconsideredonsupplyside ResourceendowmentsTechnologyFactorstobereconsideredondemandside TastesandpreferencesIncomelevelOthers Transportationcost Season Exchangerate etc 66 I Factor EndowmentTheory ItaddressestwoquestionsunexplainedbyRicardo 1 Whatdeterminescomparativeadvantage 2 Whateffectdoesinternationaltradehaveontheearningsofvariousfactorsofproductionintradingnations 67 I 1 BasicAssumptions Thefactor endowmenttheoryreliesonseveralassumptions 1 nationshavethesametastesandpreferences demandconditions 2 theyusefactorinputsthatareofuniformquality 3 theyusethesametechnology 68 I 2 ContentoftheTheory Comparativeadvantageisexplainedexclusivelybydifferencesinrelativenationalsupplyconditions Inparticular thetheoryhighlightstheroleofnation sresourceendowmentsasthekeydeterminantofcomparativeadvantage Givenidenticaldemandandconditionsandinputproductivities differencesintherelativeabundanceofresourcesdeterminerelativepricelevelsandthepatternoftrade 69 I 2 ContentoftheTheory Pricelevelamongnationsdifferbecause DifferentendowmentsoffactorinputsProductionofdifferentcommoditiesrequiredifferentintensitiesoffactorinputs Theoreticalconclusion Anationwillexportthatcommodityforwhichalargeamountoftherelativelyabundant cheap inputisused 70 Figure4 1Comparativeadvantageaccordingtothefactor endowmenttheory France sPPS Germany sPPS 71 I 3 Factor PriceEqualization FreetradetendstoequalizecommoditypricesamongtradingnationsFreetradealsoleadstowardanequalizationoftherelativefactorpricesinthetwotradingpartners 72 I 3 Factor PriceEqualizingMechanism Outputexpandsincomparative advantageAindustry APricerisesasdemandinAabundantfactorrises Afactorbecomesdearer Bfactorbecomescheaper CountryI Outputexpandsincomparative advantageBindustry BPricerisesasdemandinBabundantfactorrises Bfactorbecomesdearer Afactorbecomescheaper CountryII PricesforAfactorbecomethesamePricesforBfactorbecomethesame 73 RealworldScenario Resourcesmayonlybepartiallyequalizedbetweentradingpartners OversimplifiedunderlyingassumptionsDifferenttechnologiesNon perfectlycompetitivelymarketsExistenceoftransportationcostsTradebarriers 74 I 4 TradeandDistributionofIncome Tradeaffectsanation saggregateincomelevelaswellastheinternaldistributionofincomeamongtheownersofresources Theabundantfactorgainsfromfreetradeandthattherelativelyscarcefactorlosesifresourcesarecompletelymobileamongindustrieswithinacountryandcompletelyimmobileamongcountries 75 CaseDiscussion DoesTradeMakethePoorEvenPoorer Immigration DeclineofUnions Stagnantminiwage Trade Unexplained Technologicalchange Contributionofvariousfactorstowageinequality inpercent 76 LeontiefParadox EmpiricalTestonFactorEndowmentTheory ContrarytoFactorEndowmentTheoryprediction U S exportswerefoundtobelesscapital intensivethanimport competinggoods ThiscontradictioniscalledasLeontiefParadox 77 II EconomiesofScaleandSpecialization Economiesofscaleunderlieanation scomparativeadvantagebecausetheinternationaltradepermitsthefirmtotakeadvantageoflongerproductionruns whichleadtoincreasingefficiencyoffactorinputs 78 Figure4 4EconomiesofScaleasaBasisforTrade 10 000 8 000 7 500 0 100 200 275 A B C Autos thousands Price dollars ACMexico U S Largermarket Moreoutput Lowerunitcost 79 Figure4 5TradeandSpecializationUnderDecreasingCosts EconomiesofScale UnitedStates SouthKorea B A C D 0 100 125 TonsofSteel Computers Pretradeautarkypoint Posttradeproductionpoint 80 III TheoryofOverlappingDemands AccordingtoLinder themainforceinfluencingmanufactured goodtradeisdomesticdemandconditions Linderstatesthatfirmswithinacountryaregenerallymotivatedtomanufacturegoodsforwhichthereisalargedomesticmarket Anation sexportsarethusanexpansionofproductionforthedomesticmarket Nationswithsimilarpercapitaincomeswillhaveoverlappingdemandstructuresandwilllikelytoconsumesimilartypesofmanufacturedgoods 81 IV IntraindustryTrade Interindustrytrade theexchangebetweennationsofproductsofdifferentindustries Intraindustrytrade theexchangebetweennationsofproductswithinthesameindustry Reasons TransportationcostforhomogeneousgoodsSeasonalfactorsDifferentiatedproducts 82 V ProductLifeCycleTheory Manufacturedgoodisintroducedtohomemarket Domesticindustryshowsexportstrength Foreignproductionbegins Domesticindustrylosescompetitiveadvantage Importcompetitionbegins 83 VI DynamicComparativeAdvantage IndustrialPolicy Industrialpolicyisastrategytorevitalize improve anddevelopanindustry Thisstrategyrequiresthatresourcesbedirectedtoindustriesinwhichproductivityishighest linkagestotherestoftheeconomyarestrong andfuturecompetitivenessisimportant Suchpoliciesinclude antitrustimmunity taxincentives R Dsubsidies loanguarantees low interest rateloans andtradeprotection 84 Regulatorypolicies Productioncost Domesticsupply Import VII EnvironmentalRegulatoryPolicesandInternationalCompetitiveness SS K 0 DS K 0 D E B C A 1 3 5 7 9 400 500 600 0 SU S 1 SU S 0 DU S 1 D B C A 500 600 4 10 12 14 85 VIII TradeinBusinessServices Table4 5LeadingExportersandImportersofBusinessServices 1977 bln 86 Determinantsunderlyinganation scompetitivenessinservices Skills andcapabilitiesofemployeesandemployeewages Abusiness sabilitytoorganizeacooperativeeffortamongworkerswiththerightcomplementaryskillsAbundanceofequipments includingcommunicationsfacilities dataprocessing andcomputers Theinstitutionalsupportprovidedbythelegalsystem practices andtraditionalfoundineachnationThepotentialeconomiesofscaleaffordedbyamarket ssize 87 IX TransportationCosts Transportationcoststendtoreducethevolumeoftrade thedegreeofspecializationinproductionamongthenationsconcerned andthusthegainsfromtrade Aproductwillbetradedonlyifthecostoftransportingitbetweennationsislessthanthepre tradedifferencebetweentheirrelativecommodityprices Fallingtransportationcostsisoneoftheimportantfactorsunderlyingtheexpansionofinternationaltrade 88 Figure4 7Freetradewithouttransportationcosts AutoPrice thousandsofdollars UnitedStates Canada S D E F S D a b c d 6 4 2 Exports Imports 2 4 6 4 6 8 Autos Autos 89 Figure4 7Freetradewithtransportationcostsof 2 000perauto S D e f g h E F S D 5 4 3 0 3 4 5 Exports Imports UnitedStates Canada Autos Autos AutoPrice thousandsofdollars 4 5 7 8 90 Tariffs Chapter5 91 KeyConceptsandTerms Advaloremtariff从价关税Beggar thy neighborpolicy以邻为壑政策Bondedwarehouse保税仓库Compoundtariff复合关税Consumersurplus消费者剩余Consumereffect消费者效应Cost insurance freight CIF valuation到岸价格估价 92 Customsvaluation海关估价Deadweightloss净损失Domesticrevenueeffect国民收入效应Effectivetariffrate有效关税税率Foreign tradezone FTZ 对外贸易区Free on board FOB valuation离岸价格估价Free tradeargument自由贸易理论 93 Free trade biasedsector赞成自由贸易的部门Infant industryargument幼稚产业保护理论Largenation大国Levelplayingfield公平竞技场Nominaltariffrate名义关税率Offshore assemblyprovision OAP 境外装配条款Optimumtariff最优关税 94 Producersurplus生产者剩余Productionsharing生产分工Protection biasedsector赞成贸易保护的部门Protectiveeffect保护效应Protectivetariff保护性关税Redistributiveeffect再分配效应Revenueeffect收入效应 95 Revenuetariff财政关税Scientifictariff科学关税Smallnation小国Specifictariff从量关税Tariffescalation关税升级Terms of tradeeffect贸易条件效应 96 I 1TheTariffConcept Definition Atariffissimplyatax duty leviedonaproductwhenitcrossesnationalboundaries Themostwidespr