The RMB appreciates analysis of pressure current situation reachs his to alleviate countermeasure is discussed.doc

the rmb appreciates analysis of pressure current situation reachs his to alleviate countermeasure is discussed on july 21, 2005, does chinese people bank release announcement to weigh: ? discharge predestined relationship is executed than palm? it is a foundation with market supply and demand, referenced “ one basket “ the money undertakes modulatory, the floating rate that has government is made. this shows china runs floating way with regression, started flexibility of mechanism of rmb exchange rate formally to turn reform. so why does our country choose to undertake the reform of system of rmb exchange rate for a short while in this? what kind of prospect is it facing again? the analysis that one shallow does with respect to above problem below tries to seek a few countermeasure. one, the rmb appreciates pressure current situation(one) at present influence rmb exchange rate takes the international factor of situationbecause society of the international before this appreciates substantially to the rmb,hold huge to expect, however the need that the little scope of the rmb appreciated to cannot satisfy relevant state far 2005, these countries continue to use force to our country government, still ask the rmb appreciates further. of 1. rmb small appreciate to anticipate strongly what caused international money market to appreciate further to the rmb. before our country announces exchange rate system is reformed, although international society appreciated to already formed powerful pressure to the rmb, but the existence of the uncertainty that whether carries out as a result of reform, did not form pair of rmbs to appreciate particularly intense anticipate. after exchange rate reform was carried out formally on july 21, caused the widespread attention of international society. the rmb that the market before this anticipates appreciates extent is in at least 5%-10% above, at present of 2% appreciate make adventurer still holds huge hope, caused international thereby financial the anticipation that appreciates to the rmb, this kind anticipates what also increased a rmb at the same time to appreciate pressure. 2. commerce chafes still acerb, the rmb appreciates pressure surrive. although the little scope of the rmb appreciated to alleviate effectively,the commerce between our country and commerce associate country chafes, but we ought to see, the labor that china exports is concentrated model the product has huge advantage, the little scope of the rmb appreciates is depress only the profit space of domestic export business, the price of the home made product in going up to the international market did not cause apparent effect, the competition ability of chinese product still driving. those this is right wanting that will reduce chinese product competition ability through making a rmb appreciate, for the country that improves balance of payments of trade situation, balance in order to achieve, did not achieve the goal that they anticipate, commerce chafes still acerb. 2005 second half of the year, first what chinese exit product suffers, in all 33, outclass 2004 24 of the corresponding period. these countries can ask the rmb continues to appreciate necessarily, export the advantage of the product with farther contractible our country, protect the relevant company of its home. these making the cry that rmb of the requirement on international appreciates still resonant, the rmb appreciates pressure surrive. (2) at present influence rmb exchange rate takes the domestic factor of situationbe based on our countrys current economy trade and circumstance of foreign exchange reserve, the inherent power that the rmb appreciates as before powerful, from our country the economy in the future grows foreground to look, the rmb still has the space that appreciates further. growth of 1. favorable balance of trade is mixed too quickly of foreign exchange reserve abound in, still be the immanent pressure that forces a rmb to appreciate further. come to our country for years the abidance of foreign trade the big surplus that high speed growth brought in successive years, make the foreign exchange reserve of our country increases substantially, up to in feburary 2006, chinese foreign exchange reserve already was as high as 8500 much dollars, 3.6 billion dollar controls biribenduo, china already became the world to go up country of the biggest foreign exchange reserve. this among them, dollar assets scale is in 60% above, euro asset is occupied about 20% , yen assets is occupied 10% the left and right sides. the foreign exchange reserve of a huge sum increased the supply of the foreign currency on foreign currency market not only, more important is the opportunity cost that increased respect of our country foreign exchange reserve, lay in cost for the bring down, decrease with respect to need manage foreign currency capital fund, especially dollar assets, sell a foreign currency steam again this currency with respect to need then, this increased the disparity of foreign currency supply and demand on foreign currency market further, bring about foreign currency to be opposite necessarily of rmb exchange rate drop, if be to be in,expression answers to be money of one home products to appreciate below system of complete floating rate, but at present fluctuant extent control is in our country 3% the left and right sides, this makes our country impossible to dissolve this powerful pressure through the free float of exchange rate, covert thereby the immanent pressure that the land increased a rmb to appreciate. the high speed growth of 2. economy is the inherent power that the rmb appreciates. momentum of progress of chinese current economy is powerful, before paragraph the little scope of time rmb appreciates and did not bring too big impact to construction of our country economy, domestic investment and export demand remain the same exuberant, economy is basic the face continues to get ameliorative, economy grows foreground to still be continued to value, the rmb continues to get the favour of domestic and international investor. these are the powerful motive force that make incline to of rmb exchange rate rise, the rmb still has appreciate tremendously latent capacity, that is to say the rmb can continue to face appreciating pressure. the currency value that 3. lasts is underestimated bring about our country to import cost too big, the rmb appreciates is the immanent need that our country economy grows. according to the need that economy of our country country grows, import demand is increasing ceaselessly. in last few years our country maintained economy to last the situation that high speed rises, to satisfy the demand that economy increases, the adjustment that accelerates structure of our country industry and upgrade, our country is experiencing the level that from exit big country transforms to entrance big country. after reform of rmb exchange rate began on july 21, 2005 8, growth of import of general october commerce rebounds quickly, early days anticipates because of appreciating the concentration after exchange rate be been in by depressive import demand is reformed is released, in the end of the year a little somewhat fall after a rise. from will for a long time look, the rmb appreciates further conduce to reduce our country entrance raw material, fuel, mineral the cost that waits for raw product, reduce our country to import the burden of the sources of energy and raw material greatly, make domestic company reduces manufacturing cost thereby, enhance competition ability. also be helpful for our country enterprise importing abroads advanced mechanical equipment at the same time, raise industry technology level, improve product class, promote the adjustment of the industry of our country and commerce structure thereby, the position in improving our country to divide the work in international. these are going up objectively requirement rmb makes the same score quietly to appreciate continuously in the time henceforth. can see, it is no matter from external pressure angle is spent or from immanent demand angle for, of the rmb appreciating further is necessary and must. of the rmb before present key looks how to dissolve order namely appreciate pressure, make the exchange rate reform of our country has a relatively comfortable external environment. 2, dissolve a rmb to appreciate the measure proposal of pressure(one) adopt measure actively to restrict favorable balance of trade to spend rapid growththe too rapid growth of favorable balance of trade is to bring about our country and euramerican between trade friction forms a rmb to appreciate then the fuse of pressure, we can adopt measure actively to control the rapid growth of favorable balance of trade, avoid the pressure that the passivity of rmb exchange rate that brings from this adjusts. current desirable measure basically includes the following fields: 1. exports duty through collecting, reduce the measure such as exit drawback tax rate to restrict those technical levels actively low, craft the exit of the business with backward, serious pollution. on january 26, 2006, total bureau of national tax wu issues an announcement, cancelled the exit drawback of a few commodity, the exit that degree underground also differred to move other product in the meantime withdraws tax rate. on march 14, office of news of ministry of finance issues announcement, to control high cost further can, the exit of product of sex of tall pollution, resource, via approval of the state council, committee of tax regulations of custom duty of the state council decides to rise from april 10, 2006, export those who improve partial product tax rate. these measure restricted those tall pollution not only the exit of the product of low additional cost, alleviation the trade friction, pressure that eased a rmb to appreciate, the good figure of big country in the development that also established our country to bear the blame as in international society at the same time, more important is, this also promoted our country to export the superior bad discard of the enterprise, conduce to our country improving commerce composition. 2. perfects the firewood fulfil structure of company staff, drive manpower cost to upgrade, ensure from law and system employee obtains reasonable social security fee. our country is in the competitive advantage of the international market, not be rmb exchange rate, however the comparison of our country cost advantage, namely low labour force price. our country is at present state-owned with the private enterprise average wage is in average worker 1200 yuan or so, far the salary standard under the staff of foreign capital company in our country churchyard, the half of pay of the person that administrator salary also has business management of congener foreign capital only is controlled. this hit the manufacturing enthusiasm of laborer badly, also caused the prediction of a persons luck in a given year of a large number of outstanding talents at the same time. appreciate in the rmb below pressure, but thereby makes appraise is worth and be adjusted appropriately afresh to cheap labor, raise the price level of labour force, this can raise the cost of our country product not only, reduce trade friction, ease the pressure that the rmb appreciates, still can make the life of company staff gets better safeguard, enlarge home market demand, more important is to be below the condition that labor cost improves, can make those work in order to produce concentrated model the enterprise that the product gives priority to transforms to technology intensive enterprise, advanced the step of structural adjustment of our country industry secondhand. (2) enlarge our country enterprise to invest directly external, encourage capital outputface a rmb to appreciate pressure, encourage conditional company invests abroad or import advanced machine equipment, the asymmetry that capital of alleviation our country is poured out of and flows into, improve condition of balance of payments, alleviate the rmb appreciates pressure. message of department of commerce, up to “ 15 “ period end, our country external direct investment exceeds 50 billion dollar. among them, every time accumulative total invests 2002-2005 net specified number 17.9 billion dollar, year all grow 36% . outside our country condition in endowment more than 10000; invest the enterprise directly external by “ greenbelt invests “ to cross a state and buy wait for means to expand, cross a state and buy become the important way; that invests directly external area of assemble of industry of center of the research and development outside a batch of conditions, industry work up. from will for a long time look, our country is a big country that is in high speed development, ought to expand to invest directly external further, take an active part in go in international economy collaboration, add the weight that holds in economy of our country alive bound, elevate the international of our country the status, earn more economic profits, adjust the relation of our country and other and companionate country through investing directly external at the same time, improve our countrys located international environment, reduce a rmb appreciate pressure. (3) accelerate a rmb to derive product market to buildcurrent, the answers risk of foreign currency exchange rate develop produce variety that domestic bank can offer is very much, but the develop produce of risk of avoid rmb exchange rate is basic it is blank, long-dated knot carry out collects only rmb to still exist a lot of blemish. be aimed at existing market situation, i feel should farther to loosen control of capital project foreign currency, encourage a rmb to derive a product to develop, in already allowed open rmb long-dated go up with the foundation of crossing-over, continue to roll out a rmb period authority and futures trade. such doing increased a rmb not only the fluidity of long-dated market, avoid exchange rate risk, alleviated effectively also at the same time of the rmb appreciate pressure, was the level of rmb spot exchange rate with reasonable discovery to provide market basis. 3, trend of rmb exchange rate is looked intocurrent, the anticipation that the market appreciates to the rmb is preliminary appear to turn evidence infirmly, because difference of profit of the dollar outside churchyard tends,this basically is contractible. since july 21, 2005, dollar of commercial bank of our country churchyard is small saving interest rate is successive go up 3 times tone, before be being reformed by exchange rate 1.125% rise 2.5% current, rose 1.375 percent, and rate of chu li of beautiful couplet of the corresponding period rose a percent only. be in short-term inside, as beautiful couplet store “ dovish and orderly “ add the end of pace advance gradually of breath, the pressure that the rmb that will measure with interest rate par continues to appreciate to the dollar is in abate, and in light of the trend that expands ceaselessly from our country favorable balance of trade, the pressure that the rmb comes from balance of payments to adjust will still surrive. in the long run, rmb exchange rate goes situation have uncertainty. with respect to interior character, if our country economy can continue below health,high speed grows, so the rmb had appreciating built-in base; but the pressure that pair of rmbs can form to devalue when if finance money changes the trend,