农业灾害英语翻译.doc

Hubei flood and drought disasters on Agricultural Economic Growth Impact Analysis hulun Based on 1980-2010 dataSummary: This paper from 1980 to 2010 time series data from the flood and drought disasters caused direct economic losses of two angles and indirect economic losses, but also for flood and drought disasters in Hubei Province on agricultural issues to explore economic growth, has certain practical significance. The results show that floods and droughts and the inherent link between the agricultural economy and mutual restraint is very obvious, is to determine the economic factors reveals fundamental factors disasters. Especially floods in Hubei Province is more significant than the effects of the drought. To reduce the number of occurrences of flood and drought disasters in Hubei Province and the promotion of economic growth in agriculture, Disaster prevention and mitigation work proposed must also pay attention Hubei floods, strengthen agricultural science and technology investment advice. Expectations for government departments to carry out disaster prevention and mitigation work, and to develop effective disaster mitigation policies and institutional arrangements to provide policy guidance and referenceKeywords: Hubei Province;flood and drought;Agricultural Economic growth; Regression AnalysisAlthough the structure of Chinas GDP, as a proportion of primary industry of agriculture industrialization process accelerated with the decline, but the nature of agriculture is the basis of the national economy has not changed. Since the reform and opening up in 1978, Hubei increased frequency of flood and drought disasters, disaster becoming heavy, affecting the agricultural economy has become an important factor for sustainable development, but also affect other sectors of the national economy related vital interests. On the one hand, the economic impact of disasters is reflected in with the economic development and strength, humanitys ability to withstand all kinds of disasters has been improving, to some extent reduce disasters and reduce disaster losses extent; meanwhile, the economic development and the objective to develop and promote the disaster has become more serious tendencies. On the other hand, disaster eventually solve the problem depends on the level of economic development, based on economic means as the basic method.Therefore, this paper further studies using empirical analysis methods and agricultural flood and drought disasters in Hubei correlation between economic growth.First, the relevant literature review1. Abroad on flood and drought and economic theoryWestern scholars economic issues of disaster research and analysis into two areas, first, the substance of the economic system of disaster impact, disasters on production activities, including research into the impact of factor analysis and indirect consequences. Second, Studies of disasters on the impact of the economic system arrangements. Malthusian catastrophe disaster earliest (1798) by Thomas Malthus Robert proposed, mainly refers to the growing population will sooner or later lead to food shortage. Marx and Engels thought that the disaster and development of productivity is closely related. On the one hand, the development of the productive forces of human social and economic progress, the ability to continuously improve disaster prevention and mitigation; On the other hand, the development of productive forces unreasonable, will accelerate the depletion of natural resources and the destruction of the natural environment, resulting in a variety of extreme disasters. Western economic disaster research began in the 1950s. According to some scholars, the earliest studies on the economic impact of disasters scholars is Brannen (1954), first study of the economic impact of natural disasters in the literature is the Economics Aspects of The Waco, Texas Disaster of May11, 1953, his 1953 Texas experienced a major disaster has been studied. Subsequently, Kunreuther and Fiore (1966) co-authored a paper clearly put forward the term disaster economics. Hirshleifer (1966) is the first in-depth study of economists disaster theme, he analyzed the experiences of the Black Death in Europe 1348-1350 outbreak on the economy short-term and long-term effects, their research has inspired more economists who began to explore this area.1984 American University of Florida convened a natural disasters and mitigation of Economics Academic Council (Conference on the Ecnomics of Natural Hazards and Their Mitigation). After nearly 50 years of research, disasters and mutual influence between economic development have been most aspects of a large number of research results, research methods are constantly updating and developing. The first international attempt to use empirical data describe the macroeconomic impact of disasters on the American scholar Albala Bertrand (1993), his 26 years of 28 countries, 1960-1979 data disaster events disaster modeling analysis found that the increase in GDP, capital structure to improve, agriculture and construction output increased, and attributed to the destruction of capital is more efficient substitution of capital reasons. Nobel laureate Amartya Sen (1998) proposed exchange of rights theory, with that by the droughts, floods and other natural disasters caused by reduced food supply is not the only factor causing famine, and its decisive role in a variety of deficiencies in the system as a result of some social groups access to food rights is missing. Hideki Toyab and Mark Skidmorec (2005) use the data to examine the impact of disasters by natural disasters, human and economic losses decrease as the degree of economic development. The results showed that, with higher income, higher education levels and relatively complete national financial system losses caused by natural disasters is relatively small.2 Domestic regarding flood and drought and economic theoryHu Angang (1996) through the statistics calculation results show that, since the founding, Chinas natural disasters obvious has disaster cycle, and the average cycle length is between 3-3.5 years.Zheng Gongcheng (1998) in Disaster Economics book, refers to the city made disasters, economic problems, and summarizes the four basic rules of disaster effects and the five principles. In the economic analysis of the disaster, that the economic characteristics of the agricultural disaster, cyclical fluctuations, regional differentiation and orientation of macroeconomic policy issues. Zhang Xiao(1999) refers flood and drought disasters caused economic loss is defined as the total direct economic losses, indirect economic losses and casualties and the loss of three. Xie Yonggang (2003) in its flood and drought economics in the analysis of economic losses caused by floods and droughts, and in economics from the perspective of both macro and micro levels further understand the effects on the water hazard analysis. Liu Yingqiu (2005) analysis of drought in the socio-economic impact on China is that Chinas agricultural drought is a major natural disaster. Drought impact on food although larger, but not a threat to national food security. The results show that Chinas 90 years floods and droughts caused by all the staff and the loss of social wealth every year by 4% of GDP or higher proportion in which the loss of flood and drought years 1991,1994,1996 most severe degree. DU for the public (2010) respectively Harrod - Domar model of economic loss assessment of natural disasters, economic growth based on two-sector model of economic loss assessment of natural disasters, economic growth model based on regional economic loss assessment of natural disasters, based on economic balanced economic disaster damage assessment, based on structuralist economic disaster damage assessment, based on economic impact of the disaster cycle of economic loss assessment, based on macro-economic policy-making disaster loss assessment methods for specific assessments, provide a theoretical basis for the study.3. With regard to the economy of flood and drought disasters in Hubei ProvinceIn addition to floods and droughts in 1954 and 1961 in Hubei Province has a large decline in economic volatility, the rest of the year did not pace of economic growth in Hubei Province north have big goals prejudice (Yangtze River Jingjiang Change Research 1983). 1991 Hubei province tolls caused direct economic losses of 10.5 billion yuan, while the agricultural disaster losses reached 6.4 billion yuan. Lumei Song, Li Xinling (1996) considered severe droughts and floods in Hubei main reasons: (1) natural and geographical environment factors; (2) environmental degradation, soil erosion; (3) engineering facilities aging, low standard drainage flood control and drought; (4) foreign visitors and more water, flood downstream vent poor. The summer of 1998, the Yangtze River, Nen River, Songhua River flood occurs once every hundred years, the affected area of 22,267,000 hectares, the affected population 180 million people, killed over 4150 people who, for the 255.09 billion yuan in direct economic losses, indirect losses are nearly one hundred million yuan (Zhang right, Li Ning, 2007). The most serious flooding in Hubei year is 1998 and the Songhua River Yangtze basin-wide, causing direct economic losses of crops about 204.4 billion yuan (Feng Xiang Zhao, Zou Ji, Marsanne, 2007). 1999-2001 three-year drought area for the 1102,2210 and 2363 thousand hectares, an upward trend, which in 2000 the history of the province suffered a rare winter and spring and summer drought, drought-hit area of more than 80% of the total range . Leading agricultural and rural economic development in Hubei Province is an important factor sluggish agricultural disasters, thereby restricting the economic development of Hubei (Lu Yun, Liyuan Kui, Zhang Guoliang, Kong Yue-hong, 2005). Hubei severe floods and droughts, at present, many scholars conducted a detailed study of its causes, Wu Yi Beng, Mafa Sheng, Jin Weibin, Ren Xiaohua (2003) by analyzing a large number of historical documents material, summed up the flood and drought disasters in Hubei Province with severe , regional, seasonal, persistent, Bo lock, periodicity and human sexual characteristics, pointed out that the drought in Hubei Province with the big floods often alternating forms. Drought is the highest frequency of Hubei Province, heaviest damage, affecting a wider range of agro-meteorological disasters. Agricultural drought on the one hand by climate, soil and other natural resources, agriculture and crop adaptability limit the impact on the one hand with the local ability to regulate the use of water resources can vary and is affected by the level of socio-economic development constraints (Zhang Weiwei, 2011) . October 1998 to December, Hubei Province, northern Hubei region has witnessed severe drought affected area of 379.3 hectares, drought severely affected Rabi (Liu Gang, 2002). Yu Guangyuan (1986) on disasters and economic issues. 3 main points First disasters essence of the problem is the economy, the second is the law of mutual restraint human disaster reveals three is related to disaster mitigation economy theory.Second, the research hypotheses and theoretical models1. A study hypothesis Flood and drought disasters and agricultural economic growth is not two completely separate system, but interwoven, interacting economic activities.Hypotheses from the flood and drought disasters on economic growth of agriculture two aspects of the analysis, On the one hand side select six indicators floods, droughts aspects of selecting three indicators, select the ring than the other flood and drought losses to agriculture analyze the impact of economic growth. Flood and drought on agricultural growth are complex and comprehensive, if a single indicator reflects the relationship between the breach of the principles of scientific. This study adopted from the production, living, three levels of human activity, sing 11 indicators reflect the relationship between the two. Select the flood affected area () , flood crops area (),number of houses collapsed (),flood affected population (),hydropower Station in Rural(),effective irrigation area (),Drought-affected area (),drought crops area (),crops affected area (),drought grain growth of per capita economic losses (),flood losses of food per capita economic growth of ().Production level through the flood affected area, flooding crops area, drought disaster area, drought crops area, crop area affected five indicators reflect, aspects of life through the number of houses collapsed, flooding the affected population, the number of Hydropower Station, the effective irrigation area of four indicators reflect. Grain per capita living floor economic losses from floods, drought, loss of two food per capita economic indicators to reflect. : Flood affected area () on agricultural economy remain negative influence. : Flood crops area () on agricultural economy remain negative influence : Number of houses collapsed () on agricultural economy remain negative influence :Flood affected population () on agricultural economy remain negative influence : Hydropower Station in Rural () on agricultural economy remain positive influence : Effective irrigation area () on agricultural economy remain positive influence. : Drought-affected area () on agricultural economy remain negative influence. : Drought crops area () on agricultural economy remain negative influence. : Crops affected area () on agricultural economy remain negative influence : Economic losses drought food chain growth () on agricultural economy remain negative influence.: Economic losses flood food chain growth () on agricultural economy remain negative influence2. Theoretical modelThis article will use the production, life and human activity 3 level 11 indicators to reflect Hubei Agricultural Drought Disasters and Economic Growth.Regression model: Multiple linear regression model is more than one explanatory variable linear regression model, explanatory variables used to reveal several other explanatory variables with the linear relationship between. Multiple linear regression model: Among, are unknown parameters, is the regression constant, are the partial regression coefficient, called random error, is a random variable, and equally meet two prerequisites: Regression equation: If 、 respectively, in the above formula、 Quasi and values, The regression equation is: =+ + +In the above formula, is a constant, 、 called partial regression coefficient. The significance of the partial regression coefficients is that when other independent variables are fixed, each variable changes by one unit from leaving the mean change in the value of the dependent variable.Third, empirical research1. Data Sources and indicators selectedIn this study, from 1980 to 2010 the total index time series data for empirical analysis, the study from 1980 to 2011, China Statistical Yearbook and from 1980 to 2011 the National Rural Statistical Yearbook, China Statistics Press, 1980 to 2010 Chinas Agricultural Yearbook.Due to the current domestic scholars did not water damage disasters and agricultural economic growth to form a unified index system, drawing on previous research results, based on the combination of the availability of data, this paper EXCEL food for flood and drought disasters calculated per capita economic losses chain growth rate.2. Regression analysis Analysis of correlation relationship exists between the variables, but not that the mutual relations between variables specific forms. In order to determine what factors led to changes in the dependent variable explained variables, and this influence the magnitude and direction, it is necessary on the basis of the correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis further. After the study variables correlation analysis showed an initial independent variable and dependent relationships between variables, correlation analysis results presented in both the 0.01 level was significantly correlated. Therefore, this study SPSSl7.0 environment, stepwise regression and forced regression, stepwise regression method, both the introduction of variable variables have removed the original variables were excluded in the back and willing to be introduced into the equation to return(1) establish the regression equation:Table 1 Backward stepwise multiple regression analysis screening table below:ModelBeta IntSig.Partial correlationCollinearity statisticsToleranceFlood affected area-.414a-.947.372-.317.366Flood crops area-.314a-.818.437-.278.486Number of houses collapsed-.633a-1.778.113-.532.440Hydropower Station in Rural-.160a-.333.748-.117.331Effective irrigation area-.207a-.494.634-.172.430Drought-affected area.204a.633.545.218.713Drought crops area-.030a-.083.936-.029.581Crops affected area-.466a-1.988.082-.575.947Drought grain growth of one hundred million of economic losses-.061a-.198.848-.070.812Floods grain growth of one hundred million of economic losses-.541a-2.042.075-.585.727a. predictor variables in the model: (Constant) flood affected populationb. dependent variable: Agricultural Economic GrowthTable 1 shows the variable is removed from the equation of the model and the results, The meaning of each data item is sequentially: in the case of removing the other variables, if the variable is retained in the model, its standardized regression coeffi