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How big a threat? High oil prices will hurt the British economy, but it will cope better than other major economies.The Bank of England made no change to interest rates on November 4th. The Banks monetary-policy committee has now kept the base rate at 4.75% for three months, confounding expectations in the summer of a hike 5.0% this month.Lower growth in the third quarter and signs that the housing market has finally run out of steamare two reasons why the Bank has kept its hand off the interest-rate trigger. But the committee will also have taken into account the oil price, which has leapt by a fifth in the past three months. The price of Brent crude has risen by 60% since the start of the year.Past oil-price shocks have tipped the British economy into recession, so there are grounds for concern. The two oil- price shocks of the 1970s generated a noxious mix of rampant inflation and recession. Each time, rising fuel bills not only led to an inflationary price-wage spiral but also imposed what was in effect a big tax on oil-users, sending the economy into a tailspin.But history does not necessarily repeat itself. For one thing, this years oil-price shock is less shocking than those of the 1970s, when the oil-price first quadrupled in 1973-74 and then trebled between 1978 and 1980. In real terms, the oil price is currently about half the peak it reached in 1980. For another, the economy is less reliant upon oil. It uses about a third less oil per unit of GDP than 20 years ago, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.As important, the economy is not better able to cope with oil-price shocks than in the past. Wages and prices are no longer subject to the controls imposed in the 1970s. Labor-market reforms have made wages a lot more flexible. And intensifying competition in product markets means that firms find it much more difficult to pass on higher costs by raising prices. The mark-up mentality has faded.The economy has also been better managed since the government first switched to targeting inflation in 1992 and then made the Bank of England independent in 1997. The Banks success in keeping inflation low in the past few years had entrenched expectations of price stability. Despite the oil-price increases, consumer prices rose by just 1.1%in the year to September. With inflation this low, the danger of another upward price-wage spiral seems remote despite recent hikes in consumer fuel bills.Last but not least, Britain was a net importer of oil in the 1970s. It took time to ramp up production in the North Sea after oil was first discovered there. The trade balance in oil swung into surplus only in the second half of 1980.Although the big surpluses of the early 1980s have shrunk, Britain remains a net oil exporter. Despite falling production, the offshore oil industry expects Britain to remain self- sufficient in oil over the next three years and to meet 80% of Britains oil demand in 2010.Britains self-reliance in oil cushions the economy further from the shock of an oil-price rise since there is no longer a transfer of income to overseas oil producers. This means that more of the extra oil revenues can be recycled within Britain rather than through higher demand from oil-exporting countries. The government gets a higher income in taxes on oil production which can finance higher spending. Some of the profits made by the offshore industry will be spent in Britain.Britain has another bit of luck: it has a relatively big share of oil-producing countries import business. According to the National Institute, Britains share of this market is 6%-twice its share of world GDP. By contrast, Americas share is 11%-half its share world GDP. Allowing for the relative size of their economies, Britain has a bigger share of market than euro area. As a result, the Britain economy should benefit disproportionately when the oil producers spend their extra revenues, which is likely to be more swiftly than in the past.All this means that Britain will take less of a hit, in lower GDP growth from the oil-price shock than other major economies. According to Ray Barrell, an economist at the National Institute, a rise in oil prices cuts Britains GDP growth about half as much as it cuts the euro areas and about a third as much as it cuts Americas.However, Britain will not escape unscathed, not least since it will feel the effects of slower growth in the euro area and America, its prime export markets. According to Ben Broadbent, and economist at Goldman Sachs, the jump in oil prices since last year will reduce GDP growth in 2004 by 0.2 percentage points and in 2005 by 0.3 percentage points.Yet even taking this reduction into account, Goldman Sachs is forecasting that national output will expend at a healthy rate, by 3.2% this year and by 2.6% next year. The oil-price rise may be restraining the economy, but unless further increases take place, the damage is likely to be surprisingly limited.Glossaryconfound vt. 使混淆,把搞混;挫败hike vi. 远足;步行noxious adj. 有害的;有毒的rampant adj. 猖獗的;蔓生的;猛烈的ramp vi. 猛扑,暴跳tailspin n. 尾螺旋;恐慌,混乱quadruple vi. 成为四倍treble vi. 成为三倍entrench vt. 掘壕沟;保护;牢固树立unscathed adj. (身、心)没有受损伤的 Notes run out of steam: 原意是变得精疲力竭,这里可引申为难以维持原来的状态。 past oil-prices shocks: 前三次危机发生在70年代初、70年代末和1990年,主要是因为原油供应出现不稳,OPEC国家联手控制产量、限产而造成的。第四次发生在21世纪初,主要是由全球经济增长引起石油需求上升(尤其是是中国、印度),加上基金炒作和中东地区的政治前途等问题引发的。 an inflationary price-wage spiral: 意为“恶性通货膨胀”、“螺旋性膨胀”,主要是因为工资和资本交互持续性提高而导致的通货膨胀不断加剧的趋势。 But history does not necessarily repeat itself: 历史并不一定重演。这里意指英国将比过去能更好地应对优价高涨对国内经济带来的负面影响。 The mark-up mentality has faded: 调控油价的措施不再奏效。Mark-up原意为标高油价、涨价幅度、(加在商品成本上的)毛利. North Sea: 大西洋的边缘海,位于大不列颠与欧洲西北之间,通过多佛海峡与英吉利海峡相连。20世纪60年代后期,在它水下发现了大量石油和天然气。 offshore oil industry: 海上石油开采业。 take less of a hit: 受到更小的负面影响。 Goldman Sachs: 高盛公司。 Exercise. For each statement listed below, please write T if the statement is true according to the passage, F if its false, and NG if the information is not given in the passage.1. The base rate is kept at 4.75% for three years, which is expected to rise to 5% this month. ( )2. The oil price in the 1970s first tripled in the early parts of the decade and then quadrupled in the late parts. ( )3. The Bank of England was made independent in 1992. ( )4. The danger of another upward price-wage spiral is unlikely to arise before 2002. ( )5. There came the surplus of oil in the North Sea in the first half of the year 1980. ( ) 6. Part of the profits generated from the offshore industry will be spent in Britain. ( )7. According to Ray Barrell, a rise in oil prices cuts Japans GDP growth about half as much as it cuts Americaa. ( )8. As is forecasted, even if the oil prices further increases, the damage will be very limited. ( ). Short Answer Questions:1. Why does the Bank of England keep its hand off the interest-rate trigger? 2. According to the text, what was the consequence of the oil-price shocks of the 1970s?3. What did the British government do in the 1990s to better cope with the economy?4. Why is Britains self-reliance in oil a further protection of its economy from the shock of an oil-price rise?5. What factor is the last mentioned in the text that helps Britain better be able to cope with high oil prices?6. What are the chief export markets of Britains oil industry? . Please translate the following summary of the passage into English. 过去的三个月以来,油价上涨了五分之一。但英格兰银行并未对利率作任何的调整。 以往每次油价暴涨,英国的经济就会陷入大幅倒退,但这次情况会有所改变。英国比以往任何时候都能更好地处理应付油价上涨。在很多因素的作用下,这次英国因为油价变动而造成的GDP增长的下降会比其他国家小得多,尤其是自从英国政府在1992年开始侧重解决通货膨胀问题并在1997年允许美国银行独立经营以来,通货膨胀现象已大为缓和,进而不断上扬的薪酬和油价间的恶性循环问题也不在严重。然而英国也不会毫发无损。至少,它的主要出口国欧洲地区和美国的GDP增长的下降会对它造成负面影响。但是在油价不进一步爬升的情况下,英国遭受的损失不会很严重。 The Hand that Rocks the CradleWhy women are still earning less than men?Whatever the truth of the aphorism that a mothers place is in the wrong , it seems that working mothers, at least, are in the wrong place. Or so concludes the Women and Work Commission (WWC), whose long awaited report on the causes of the “gender pay gap” the difference between mens and womens hourly earnings, was published on February 27th. The commission found that the pay gap (British women in full-time work currently earn 17% less per hour than men) was due not so much to a pattern of paying women less than men for doing the same job as to something far harder to root out. Women are making the wrong choices early in their careers and sliding into dead-end part-time jobs after they have children, with serious consequences for their lifetime earnings. A few days earlier, the European Commission brought out its own report on the pay gap across the whole European Union. Its findings were similar: per hour, European women earn 15% less than men. In America, the difference in median weekly pay is around 20%. According to the WWC, the gender pay gap opens early. Boys and girls study different subjects in school, and boys subjects lead to more lucrative careers. They then can take different degrees and work in different sort of jobs. As a result, average hourly pay for a woman at the start of her working life is only 91% of mens, even though nowadays she is probably better qualified. The gap widens to a chasm during womens working lives, for a fundamental biological reason: motherhood. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), a research outfit, the hourly pay of women with children relative to that of men with children falls to 67%. And the Institute for Public Policy Research, another think-tank, recently calculated that a women with middling skills who has a baby at age 24 loses 564,000(981,000) in lifetime earnings compared with one who remains childless. (The figure is lower, although still substantial, if she waits a while.) The labour government sees affordable child care as crucial to narrowing the pay gap. The Conservatives are following suit, trying to re- position themselves as modern and woman-friendly.In a speech on February 27th, George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, hinted that his party would subsidise a wider range of childcare options than the government does currently . He went to say that it should not be the business of the state whether women choose to work or stay at home with her children. He is right. But most British women do not want to work full-time and park their babies in nursery care all day, as mothers in some countries do. They would prefer to work part-time while their children are young, and perhaps have their partners do likewise. (Around two-thirds of British women with children under 11 work part-time.) Often, though, they cannot do this in their current jobs, but must move to a lower-paid, lower-skilled, or leave the workforce altogether. Too often this move to the “mummy track” is irreversible. According to the IFS, womens hourly pay recovers only slightly by the time their children leave home, when it is 72% of mens pay, and although their employment rate increases steadily as their children grow up, it never return to the same level as mens. One could argue that people should not be protected from the consequences of their own choices. But female workers are needed to pick up the demographic slack as society ages, and low pay will make work seem less appealing to them. Rising divorce rates mean that women-and their childrenare having to rely more on womens earnings, or on the state. Low pay for women increases poverty among children and costs taxpayers money. Families where both partners work are less vulnerable to sudden shocks. Ceri Peach, a professor of social geography at Oxford University, has examined employment and other characteristics of British Muslims and come to the conclusion that their socioeconomic marginalization is largely down to low rates of female employment. There is also good evidence that not all the errors women make are unforced. The Women and Work Commissioners declared themselves shocked by the careers advice and work experience on offer in British schools. Girls were often allowed to give up math and science without any warning about the consequences for their future earnings. They were offered work experience in nurseries and hairdresserseven when they had expressed no interest in working in these fields. And careers advisers often didnt even mention pay levels in different jobs. So the proposals to improve subject choices, careers advice and work experience make a lot of sense. Other suggestions are rather less to the point. Some are mere exhortations(“Employers should ensure that their managers, at all levels, are regularly and continually trained on diversity and flexibility issues”) , and some are comical (“The Department for Culture, media and Sport should set up two high level groups, of advertisers and key players in television drama, to encourage non-stereotypical portrayals of women and men a work”) . They do, however, make the crucial point that the pay gap will never close unless it becomes easier for women to go part-time while staying in the same job. Since 2003, companies have had to give serious consideration to employees (female and male) with children under six who request flexible working hours. Many employees have taken up this “right to request”: nearly one in five working women and one in ten men. It is still too early to tell whether the law is making a difference to working patterns, but there is clearly the potential for a change. Without it, Stendhals lament will continue to have resonance: that geniuses born as women are lost to the public good.Glossary aphorism n. 格言,谚语median adj. 中央的,中值的 lucrative adj. 有利的chasm n. 深坑,裂口irreversible adj. 不能撤回的,不能取消的demographic adj. 人口统计学的marginalization n. 边缘化exhortation n. 劝告 lament n. 悲伤,哀悼 Notes the hand that rocks the cradle: 出自美国诗人William Ross Wallace(1819-1881)歌颂母性的名句 For the hand that rocks the cradle is the hand that rules the world. (摇动摇篮的手,亦是统治世界的手。) shadow chancellor: 影子内阁大臣,又称在野内阁或预备内阁,1907年英国保守党领袖张伯伦首次创立。在英国一般由在下院获得次多席位的政党组成。一旦该党获得多数席位变成执政党时,影子内阁随之便为正式内阁。 mummy track: 这里表示女性生育之后,普遍面临照顾孩子与自身就业的两难境地,从而导致收入下降等一系列问题的共同处境。 demographic slack: 这里表示由于人口老龄化及生育率普遍低下造成的就业人口不足。 Stendhal: 司汤达,19世纪法国杰出的小说家、批判现实主义文学的奠基者,代表作有红与黑等。司汤达认为女性中很难出现天才,因为社会没有为女性天才的诞生创造任何条件。Exercise.For each statement listed below, please write T if the statement is true according to the passage, F, if its false, and NG if the information is not given in the passage.1. Women earn less pay than men because that is a tradition. ( )2. European Commission made a similar conclusion with WWC that the pay gap was due to something far harder to root out. ( )3. Men earn more because they are taught to learn more. ( )4. Men earn more because they do not have to raise a child. ( )5. Most women can not afford the expensive child care charge. ( )6. Most women do not want to work full-time and park their babies in nursery care all day. ( )7. According to the author, people should not be protected from the consequences of their own choices. ( )8. Careers advisers often make it quite clear to boys about the different pay levels in different jobs. ( ) .Short Answer Questions:1. According to WWC, what is the real reason leading to the pay gap between women and men?2. How do you understand the sentence“Too often this move to the “mummy track” is irreversible” in paragraph 7? 3. Please summarize the main points of IFS.4. According to the whole passage, what are the possible reasons for the pay gap?5. Please list the solutions offered in the passage to the pay gap between men and women.Please translate the following summary of the passage into English. 女性工作委员会发现了“两性工资差异”的原因;提出男女工资的差异与其说是源自男女同工不同酬的传统,不如说是其它未为可知原因的影响。他们认为女性一开始工作就选错了,所以有了孩子之后更是陷入永无休止的兼职工作中。这就大大影响了女性一生的收入。女性工作委员会认为,男女收入差异开始于人们的童年时期。在学校里,男女学生学习不同的科目,而男学生选择的课目往往日后收入丰厚。男女学生还会取得不同的学位,最终就会选择不同职业。工党政府认为,为女性提供价格合理的托儿服务是解决问题的关键。 A city in the dark Hong Kong must start asking tough questions about the true state of our air pollution, writes Edith Terry Every community has them the questions that you just dont ask. In Hong Kong, lots of people want to know:“Why is the sky black?” But they avoid the related question:“Who dunnit?” The reason is easy to understand, because nearly every one of us bears part of the responsibility. If the novelist Michael Crichton were to write a thriller about Hong Kongs air quality, titled perhaps Dark City, its characters would include tycoons, their Shenzhen mistresses, earnest bureaucrats, corrupt officials, limousines with dual licence plates zooming across the border, lots of unwitting bystanders and an inconvenient legislator with a big mouth.The legislator might be someone like Choy So-yuk, Hong Kongs Bella Abzug lookalike. On Wednesday, she asked Environment Secretary Edward Yau Tangwah a few sharp questions, in the course of a Legislative Council session. How many factories does Hong Kong have in the Pearl River Delta? How much damage are they doing to the air? And what are they doing about it? The context was a mid-term review of air-quality targets by the Hong Kong and Guangdong governments, released to the public on January 8. The study found that, due to undercounting of emissions in 1997the base yearemissions would exceed the 2010 targets by 89

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