经济学人读译Over_the_cliff.doc

【导读】财政悬崖面前，美国需要通过达成财务协议来实现“急刹车”Americas economy美国经济Over the cliff?跌落悬崖？Barack Obama must do more than avoid an economic abyss. He has a chance to fix Americas finances对奥巴马来说，仅仅避免国家陷入经济深渊并不够；他有机会去整顿美国的财务状况Dec 15th 2012 | from the print edition BEN BERNANKE, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, is not known for his turns of phrase. But “fiscal cliff”the term he coined to describe the tax increases and spending cuts that will hit Americas economy at the start of 2013 unless politicians agree to avert themhas inspired songs (“The fiscal cliff is a danger zone/Its where grown men go when budgets are blown,” croons Merle Hazard, a satirical singer) and television comedy (Jon Stewarts “The Daily Show” calls it “Cliffpocalypsemageddonacaust”).“财政悬崖”是美联储主席本伯南克所创造的术语，指2013年初美国经济将面临增税和开支削减的打击（除非政界就如何规避达成协议，否则这种打击无可避免）。伯南克并不以独特辞藻而知名，但“财政悬崖”这个术语给一些词曲作者和银屏谐星带来了灵感讽刺歌手默尔哈泽德轻声哼唱：“财政悬崖是一块危险地带/预算猛增时大人们就会去那里”。而乔恩斯图尔特在每日秀中称财政悬崖为“悬崖末世决战之灾”【注1】。There have also been more serious consequences. The shadow of the fiscal cliff has depressed corporate investment. American consumer confidence has started to wobble. Growth is slowing, perhaps to as little as 1% in the fourth quarter. Policymakers around the world are fretting: Australias central bank has just cut rates, citing the cliff as a worry.还有一些更为严重的后果。财政悬崖的阴影让公司投资萎靡不振。美国的消费者信心已经开始动摇。经济增长正在放缓，第四季度增长率可能仅为1%。全球的决策者焦虑不安：澳大利亚央行把财政悬崖视为隐忧，日前下调了利率。These worries are understandable but overblown (see article). In the short term the risk of economic catastrophe is minimal. The real threatand the real opportunity for Barack Obamalies in the medium and long term.这种担忧可以理解，但有些过分夸大了（见另文）。在短期内，经济灾难的风险很小。真正的威胁在中长期同时这也是奥巴马真正的机遇所在。The long and the short of it个中要点【注2】If lawmakers do nothing, America faces fiscal tightening in 2013 worth up to 5% of GDP. That is a Greek-scale squeeze. It would not take many months for it to push the country into recession. A complete stand-off between Mr Obama and Congress would lead to disaster even sooner, for unless Americas lawmakers vote to increase the “debt ceiling” (the maximum amount of debt that the Treasury can issue) by around March, the federal government will be unable to pay its billsincluding, potentially, its bondholders. The damage from a self-induced default would dwarf even that from the fiscal cliff.如果立法者无所作为，2013年美国将面临高达 GDP 5%的财政紧缩（与希腊的规模持平）。这种紧缩用不了几个月就会让国家陷入衰退。假如奥巴马和国会之间完全处于僵局，这场灾难将来得更快因为除非美国立法者投票在明年三月前后提高“债务上限”（财政部所能发放债务的最大限额），否则联邦政府将无力负担其开支，还可能无力向持券人支付利得。在自身违约所带来的危害面前，即使是财政悬崖的负面影响都相形见绌。However, precisely because the consequences of prolonged stalemate would be so disastrous, there almost certainly will not be one. Either towards the end of December, or early in 2013, Mr Obama and the Republicans in Congress are likely to reach an agreement that avoids most of the tax increases and spending cuts, and raises the debt ceiling. Elements of that deal are becoming a little clearer: the Republicans seem to have given in to Mr Obama and accepted that wealthier Americans will have to pay more tax, probably through both limited deductions and higher tax rates.然而，然而，恰恰是因为长期僵持会带来如此严重的后果，所以这样的局面基本上绝不会发生。在今年十二月底前，或者是在2013年早些时候，奥巴马和国会里的共和党人有可能就避免大多数增税和开支削减达成协议，并提高债务上限。这项协议的要点渐渐变得明朗一些了：共和党人似乎已经在奥巴马面前做出了让步，同意国家向富人增税（可能通过同时限制税金扣除并提高税率来实现）。But there are still two big reasons for Americaand the rest of the worldto worry. First, depending on the details of the deal, there could still be too great a fiscal squeeze in 2013. Second, and more important, entitlement spending is Americas biggest long-term fiscal challenge. Any fiscal deal must reform Social Security (pensions), Medicare (for the old) and Medicaid (for the poor). Mr Obama has been demanding tax increases of $1.6 trillion over the next ten years, but has offered entitlement cuts of only some $400 billion. He needs to increase the latter, to entice the Republicans into a deal and because it is the right thing to do.但美国和世界上其他国家仍然不能掉以轻心有两大原因。其一，2013年仍然可能有一次规模过大的财政紧缩，这将取决于协议的各项细节。其二，也更为重要的是，美国所面临的最大长期财政挑战在于福利开支。不管达成何种财政协议，都必须对社会保障（养老金）、（老年人的）医疗保险和（穷人的）医疗补助进行改革。奥巴马一直要求在接下来的十年内进行16000亿美元的增税，但只同意削减大约4000亿美元的福利开支。他需要加大福利开支削减力度，来诱使共和党人达成协议。况且，这么做也是正确的选择。America has a chance to straighten out not just its finances, but also the highly polarised politics that underpin them. Republicans believe passionately that higher taxes will wreck the economy; no Republican in Congress has voted for higher income taxes since 1990. Democrats believe equally passionately in the sanctity of health-care and pension schemes for the old. The last time pensions were overhauled was in 1983. Since then politicians have added handouts even as medical costs have soared and the population has aged. The result is a gaping, and growing, fiscal hole. Americas underlying “structural” budget deficit is almost 7% of GDP. Among rich countries, only Japans is bigger.美国不仅有机会整顿国家财务，还有机会去整顿为国家财务打下基础的、高度两极分化的政坛。共和党人坚信增税会破坏经济；自从1990年以来，国会里的共和党人从来没有投票支持过提高所得税。同样，民主党人坚信医保和养老金方案神圣不可侵犯。美国上一次对养老金进行彻底改革是在1983年。从那时起，政界在医疗成本猛增、人口老龄化的情况下加大了相关的拨款力度结果产生了越来越大的财政漏洞。美国基础的“结构性”预算赤字约为 GDP 的7%，在发达国家中仅次于日本。Since the financial crisis Americas ideological stand-off has, as it happens, produced sensible short-term fiscal policy. The United States cushioned its recession with stimulus and, by keeping fiscal policy loose, has supported the recovery. With many other rich countries tightening further and faster, that did the world a service.自从金融危机爆发以来，美国的意识形态僵局恰巧催生了一种明智的短期财政政策。美国用刺激方案缓和了经济衰退的冲击；并通过放松财政政策为经济复苏提供了支持。在很多其他发达国家进行范围更大、节奏更快的财政紧缩时，美国此举对全世界有利。In todays weak recovery the same logic holds. With bond yields near record lows America need not, and should not, tighten policy too fast. Some tightening in 2013 is both expected and manageable. Most forecasters expect around 1.5% of GDP, as measures that were always designed to be temporary, such as the payroll-tax cut, expire. But there is a danger that a minimalist deal would result in too big a squeeze. An agreement that extended tax cuts only for the middle-class, for instance, would imply a tightening of some 3% of GDP in 2013. That is too fast.如今经济复苏不振，同样的道理也是说得通的。在债券收益接近历史最低点的情况下，美国不需要也不应该过快地收紧财政政策。在2013年进行一些紧缩，这既在预料之中，又具有可行性。大多数预测人士估计，过去总是临时措施的政策（比如个人所得税削减）到期之后，紧缩量将约为 GDP 的1.5%。但最低限度的协议将导致紧缩量过大这种风险也是存在的。比如，如果协议让减税仅仅适用于中产阶级，就意味着2013年美国的紧缩量将约为 GDP 的3%。这样的紧缩速度太快了。To preserve the recovery, a deal must be less draconian. It should focus on long-term entitlement reform rather than short-term cuts. That is good politics, since overhauling entitlements is a Republican priority. And it is good economics. Spending on the old will rise faster in America than in most other rich countries. That is partly because Europes austerity plans have already delivered some fairly tough pension reforms, but mainly because Americas health-care costs are so high and rising fast.为了继续实现经济复苏，必须将协议放宽。应当把重心放在长期的福利改革而非短期的福利削减上。这在政治层面是明智的，因为共和党是优先考虑福利改革的。在经济层面，这也是明智的。美国针对老年人的开支的增长速度比其他发达国家的大多数都要快。这部分是因为紧缩措施在欧洲已经带来了一些极为艰难的养老金改革，但主要还是由于美国的医保开支不但数额很高而且增长迅速。A big deal大协议Mr Obama has the opportunity to fix this and to reform entitlementssomething that has eluded every president since Ronald Reagan. The combination of his re-election and the fiscal cliff has forced the Republicans to show some flexibility on increasing the tax take. That victory has given Mr Obama leverage over the left of his own party. If he uses it to force real change, from lower indexation of pension payments to tougher means-testing of health-care benefits, he will transform Americas long-term fiscal outlook.奥巴马有机会去改善这种情况并进行福利改革自罗纳德里根以来，还没有哪位总统这样做过。美国在奥巴马连任后恰逢财政悬崖，因此共和党人被迫在增税方面表现出一些灵活性。这种胜利让奥巴马对民主党内的左派有了影响力。如果他用这种影响力来迫使美国实行真正的改革降低养老金支出和物价挂钩的程度、加强对医保受益者的经济状况调查等等他将让美国长期的财政状况得到改观。So far the president has shown lamentably little boldness, arguin