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Aging in European Countries 欧洲国家的老龄化 We have to realise how old, how very old, we are. Nations are classified as aged when they have 7 per cent or more of their people aged 65 or above, and by about 1970 every one of the advanced countries had become like this. Of the really ancient societies, with over 13 per cent above 65, all are in Northwestern Europe. At the beginning of the 1980s East Germany had 15.6 per cent, Austria, Sweden, West Germany and France had 13.4 per cent or above, and England and Wales 13.3 per cent. Scotland had 12.3 per cent. Northern Ireland 10.8 percent and the United States 9.9 per cent. We know that we are getting even older, and that the nearer a society approximates to zero population growth, the older its population is likely to be - at least, for any future that concerns us now. 我们不得不认识到我们多大岁数了,有多老了。当有7或更多的65岁或65岁以上的人时,这些国家就被列为老龄化国家。到大约1970年,每一个发达国家就成了这样的国家。65岁以上的人超过13的真正的老年人社会,都在西北欧。20世纪80年代初,东德有15.6的人超过65岁,在奥地利、瑞典、西德和法国,这个比率为13.4%或更高,英格兰和威尔士有13.3%,苏格兰有12.3%,北爱尔兰有10.8,美国有9.9%。我们知道人类在日益变老,人口增长率接近于零的社会离我们越近,人口越可能呈老龄化的趋势,至少就与影响我们的未来来说是这样的。 To these now familiar facts a number of further facts may be added, some of them only recently recognised. There is the apparent paradox that the effective cause of the high proportion of the old is births rather than deaths. There is the economic principle that the dependency ratio - the degree to which those who cannot earn depend for a living on those who can - is more advantageous in older societies like ours than in the younger societies of the developing world, because lots of dependent babies are more of a liability than numbers of the inactive aged. There is the appreciation of the salient historical truth that the aging or advanced societies has been a sudden change. 更多的现实,这其中有些只是近来才认识到,可能会加入到这些熟悉的现实中。有这样一个明显的似是而非的论点:造成老年人比率高的实际原因是出生人数而不是死亡人数。有一条经济原则:抚养率不能自食其力的人依靠能挣钱养家的人的程度在我们这样的更为老龄化的社会里比在发展中世界的较年轻社会里要有利一些,因为大量的无法独立的孩子与一定数的丧失工作能力的老年人相比,更是个负担。有对这样一个明显的历史真实的正确评价:先进社会的老龄化一直以来都是一种突变。 If revolution is a rapid resettlement of the social structure, and if the age composition of the society counts as a very important aspect of that social structure, then there has been a social revolution in European and particularly Western European society within the lifetime of everyone over 50. Taken together, these things have implications which are only beginning to be acknowledged. These facts and circumstances were well to the fore earlier this year at a world gathering about aging as a challenge to science and to policy, held at Vichy in France. 如果革命是对社会结构的迅速重建,如果社会的年龄构成被看作社会结构的一个非常重要的方面,那么在欧洲,特别是每一个人的寿命超过50岁的西欧,已经有一场革命。综上所述,人们只是刚刚开始认识到这意味着什么。这些事实和情况早些时候在法国维希举行的一个世界大会上被视为科学家和政策的挑战而置于显著的地位。 There is often resistance to the idea that it is because the birthrate fell earlier in Western and Northwestern Europe than elsewhere, rather than because of any change in the death rate, that we have grown so old. But this is what elementary demography makes clear. Long life is altering our society, of course, but in experiential terms. We have among us a very much greater experience of continued living than any society that has ever preceded us anywhere, and this will continue. But too much of that lengthened experience, even in the wealthy West, will be experience of poverty and neglect, unless we do something about it. If you are now in your thirties, you ought to be aware that you can expect to live nearly one third of the rest of your life after the age of 60. The older you are now, of course, the greater this proportion will be, and greater still if you are a woman. Expectation of life is a slippery figure, very easy to get wrong at the highest ages. At Vichy the demographers were telling each other that their estimates of how many old there would be and how long they will live in countries like England and Wales are due for revision upwards. 我们人口的老龄化,是因为在西欧和西北欧出生率比其他地方下降得早,百不是因为死亡率发生了一些变化。对这一观点经常有人不以为然,但这是通过基本的人口统计学澄清的事实。当然,长寿正改变着我们的社会,但这只是经验论。我们之中有一种比先于我们的任何社会多得多的继续生存的经历,这种经历将继续下去。除非我们能在这方面采取措施,即使在富裕的西方,太多的这种经历将被,视为贫穷和荒废的过去。你现年三十几岁,你应当知道,你可以指望在活到60岁以后再活上差不多15年。现在你年纪越大,这个比例就越高。如果你是女性,这个比例还会更大。预期寿命不是一个固定数字,在最高年龄上很容易弄错。在维希,人口学家互相转告,在像英格兰和威尔士这些国家,他们对将有多少老人和他们能活多久的估计应向上调整。Insurance 美国的保险业务 An insurance agent called me this morning. This particular agent wanted to discuss my automobile coverage, but the next agent to call might be interested in my life insurance program, my health insurance, or fire protection for my home and furniture. The American consumer often feels constantly disturbed by insurance agents. Many agents selling many different policies call us by phone and sometimes even come to our doors. These insurance agents are always friendly, well dressed, and eager to be of help. 一位保险公司代理人今天上午拜访了我。这位打扮得过分讲究的代理人想要讨论我的汽车保险的承保范围,那么下一位再来拜访我的保险公司代理人就有可能对我的人寿保险项目,我的健康保险,甚至对我的房产和家具火灾保险感兴趣。美国的消费者都会经常觉得不断地受到保险公司代理人的骚扰。很多代理人为了兜售不同险种的保险单都会给我们打电话,有时甚至登门造访。这些保险公司的代理人总是彬彬有礼,衣冠楚楚并急于热情为您服务。 Yet few Americans really enjoy visiting with these eager, helpful men and women. We are not happy when they call us; we are on guard when they visit our homes. They are never really our friends; at best, they are a necessary evil. 可是几乎没有美国人会真正喜欢这些急于热情助人的男男女女前来拜访。他们打来电话,我们不高兴;他们来我们家拜访,我们都怀有戒心。他们永远也不会成为我们真正的朋友;最多,他们代表我们必须与之打交道的魔鬼或灾难。 Three reasons why we are unwilling to discuss insurance can be suggested. First of all, insurance is expensive. A young father who purchases a fairly small life insurance policy agrees to pay a sum of $200 every year for 40 years - a total of $8,000. Many college students pay $800 to $1,000 per year for car insurance. In effect, they pay as much for the insurance as they do for the car itself. Health insurance that pays for modern medical miracles often costs Americans as much as $2,000 every year. Adequate insurance is expensive; it is a major item for most families. 我们之所以不愿讨论保险的三个原因可表述如下:第一,保险费太贵。有一位年轻的父亲,买了相当小的一份人寿保险单。他同意每年支付的保险费钱数是200美元,连续支付40年-总额共达8000美元!许多大学生每年支付小汽车保险费800到1000美元。实际算起来,他们支付保险费的钱数跟他们购买那辆汽车本身的钱数是一样多的。通常美国人每年都要支付2000美元的健康保险费,用这笔钱来支付现代医药界所创造出的一些奇迹。全方位的投保太费钱了。各方面都投保的费用是绝大多数家庭的主要开支项目。 Insurance also reminds us that we live in an unsafe world. We are human and we must face the possibilities of illness, injury, death, and financial loss. Our rational minds recognize the many unfortunate events that can occur, but in our hearts we hope that we might be spared. Serious injury or death is not a pleasant subject to discuss or even consider. We are afraid; we would rather talk about football or the weather or what we had for lunch. 第二,保险也使我们想到我们是生活在一个不安全的世界里。我们必须面对可能生病、受伤、死亡和财产损失这些灾祸。尽管我们的头脑在理性上能意识到很多灾难性的事故有可能发生,但是我们心理上都希望我们最好能幸免于难。重伤或死亡并不是一个令人愉快的讨论话题,这些我们甚至连想都下敢想。我们害怕;我们倒宁可聊一聊美式橄榄球,聊聊天气或者聊聊我们午餐所吃的东西。 Finally, insurance is a difficult, complex subject. No one understands it completely and only a few insurance professionals really feel comfortable in a discussion of automobile, life, and major medical coverages. We feel inadequate and try to hide our ignorance by avoiding discussions of insurance. 最后,保险是很难弄懂很复杂的问题。除了极小数的保险业的专家在讨论起车险,寿险和重病医药险等险种的承保范围时会高谈阔论而外,没有任何人能完全懂得保险业务。我们觉得自己没有足够的保险业务知识,因而避免讲保险问题,以便掩饰我们自己的无知。 Yet these three reasons for not discussing insurance provide three excellent reasons why we should learn more about it. Insurance is expensive. In a lifetime, many of us spend as much on insurance as we do on the purchase of a home. If we are to spend our money intelligently, we need information about the products and services available. We dont depend entirely on salespeople when we buy a car, a house, or a suit of clothes. Neither should we depend entirely on the agent when we buy insurance. We need a basic knowledge of insurance coverages if we are to be intelligent consumers. 可是,这不愿讨论保险问题的三个原因也正是我们应该更多地学些保险知识的三个充足的理由。保险费太贵。我们很多人,一辈子花的保险费跟购买房子的费用是一样多的。如果我们要把钱花得明智一些,我们就将需要获得有关购买产品或服务项目的一些信息资料。在我们买小汽车、买房子或买一套衣服时,我们不能完全相信销售人员;在我们买保险时,我们也不应该完全相信或依靠保险公司的代理人。如果我们打算要做明智的消费者,我们就需要有承保范围或者叫保险涵盖方面的知识。 The intelligent consumer looks problems in the face. Although accident, illness, and death are not pleasant subjects, each of us knows we face these possibilities. It is better that we plan for these situations by finding means to deal with them than to just hope that they will somehow go away. 明智的投保人要正视种种问题。尽管事故,疾病和死亡都不是令人愉快的话题,但是我们每个人都知道我们都有发生这些灾害的可能。针对这些可能发生的情况,我们计划一下找出对付灾害的办法,这总比我们只是凭空希望这些灾害会不知不觉地自动消失要好得多。 Although insurance can be complex, its basic concepts are neither difficult nor impossible to learn. Quite the opposite. Insurance fundamentals can be understood by those willing to study them. Serious study provides knowledge. The study of insurance is an effective, proven method of dealing with the insurance ignorance faced by many American families. 尽管保险可能是复杂的,但是保险的一些基本概念既不是很难懂的,也不是不可能学会的。恰恰相反,只要是愿意学习保险知识的人,都能弄明白保险的基本原则。认真地钻研就能获得保险的知识。钻研保险知识是很多美国家庭用来对付不懂保险情况的一种行之有效的切实可行的方法。英语演讲:克林顿告别演说Clintons Farewell Speech 克林顿告别演说Thursday, January 18, 2001(2001年1月18日)President Bill Clinton:My fellow citizens, tonight is my last opportunity to speak to you from the Oval Office as your president.I am profoundly grateful to you for twice giving me the honor to serve, to work for you and with you to prepare our nation for the 21st century. And Im grateful to Vice President Gore, to my Cabinet secretaries, and to all those who have served with me for the last eight years.同胞们,今晚是我最后一次作为你们的总统,在白宫椭圆形办公室向你们做最后一次演讲。我从心底深处感谢你们给了我两次机会和荣誉,为你们服务,为你们工作,和你们一起为我们的国家进入21世纪做准备。这里,我要感谢戈尔副总统,我的内阁部长们以及所有伴我度过过去8年的同事们。This has been a time of dramatic transformation, and you have risen to every new challenge. You have made our social fabric stronger, our families healthier and safer, our people more prosperous.You, the American people, have made our passage into the global information age an era of great American renewal. 现在是一个极具变革的年代,你们为迎接新的挑战已经做好了准备。是你们使我们的社会更加强大,我们的家庭更加健康和安全,我们的人民更加富裕。同胞们,我们已经进入了全球信息化时代,这是美国复兴的伟大时代。In all the work I have done as president, every decision I have made, every executive action I have taken, every bill I have proposed and signed, Ive tried to give all Americans the tools and conditions to build the future of our dreams, in a good society, with a strong economy, a cleaner environment, and a freer, safer, more prosperous world. 作为总统,我所做的一切-每一个决定,每一个行政命令,提议和签署的每一项法令,都是在努力为美国人民提供工具和创造条件,来实现美国的梦想,建设美国的未来-一个美好的社会,繁荣的经济,清洁的环境,进而实现一个更自由、更安全、更繁荣的世界。I have steered my course by our enduring values. Opportunity for all. Responsibility from all. A community of all Americans. I have sought to give America a new kind of government, smaller, more modern, more effective, full of ideas and policies appropriate to this new time, always putting people first, always focusing on the future. 借助我们永恒的价值,我驾驭了我的航程。机会属于每一个美国公民;(我的)责任来自全体美国人民;所有美国人民组成了一个大家庭。我一直在努力为美国创造一个新型的政府:更小、更现代化、更有效率、面对新时代的挑战充满创意和思想、永远把人民的利益放在第一位、永远面向未来。Working together, America has done well. Our economy is breaking records, with more than 22 million new jobs, the lowest unemployment in 30 years, the highest home ownership ever, the longest expansion in history. 我们在一起使美国变得更加美好。我们的经济正在破着一个又一个的记录,向前发展。我们已创造了2200万个新的工作岗位,我们的失业率是30年来最低的,老百姓的购房率达到一个空前的高度,我们经济繁荣的持续时间是历史上最长的。Our families and communities are stronger. Thirty-five million Americans have used the family leave law. Eight million have moved off welfare. Crime is at a 25-year low. Over 10 million Americans receive more college aid, and more people than ever are going to college. Our schools are better - higher standards, greater accountability and larger investments have brought higher test scores, and higher graduation rates. 我们的家庭、我们的社会变得更加强大。3500万美国人曾经享受联邦休假,800万人重新获得社会保障,犯罪率是25年来最低的,1000多万美国人享受更多的入学贷款,更多的人接受大学教育。我们的学校也在改善。更高的办学水平、更大的责任感和更多的投资使得我们的学生取得更高的考试分数和毕业成绩。More than three million children have health insurance now, and more than 7 million Americans have been lifted out of poverty. Incomes are rising across the board. Our air and water are cleaner. Our food and drinking water are safer. And more of our precious land has been preserved, in the continental United States, than at any time in 100 years. 目前,已有300多万美国儿童在享受着医疗保险,700多万美国人已经脱离了贫困线。全国人民的收入在大幅度提高。我们的空气和水资源更加洁净,食品和饮用水更加安全。我们珍贵的土地资源也得到了近百年来前所未有的保护。America has been a force for peace and prosperity in every corner of the globe.Im very grateful to be able to turn over the reins of leadership to a new president, with America in such a strong position to meet the challenges of the future.美国已经成为地球上每个角落促进和平和繁荣的积极力量。我非常高兴能于此时将领导权交给新任总统,强大的美国正面临未来的挑战。Tonight, I want to leave you with three thoughts about our future. First, America must maintain our record of fiscal responsibility. Through our last four budgets, weve turned record deficits to record surpluses, and weve been able to pay down $600 billion of our national debt, on track to be debt free by the end of the decade for the first time since 1835. 今晚,我希望大家能从以下3点审视我们的未来:第一,美国必须保持它的良好财政状况。通过过去4个财政年度的努力,我们已经把破纪录的财政赤字变为破纪录的盈余。并且,我们已经偿还了6000亿美元的国债,我们正向10年内彻底偿还国家债务的目标迈进,这将是1835年以来的第一次。Staying on that course will bring lower interest rates, greater prosperity and the opportunity to meet our big challenges. If we choose wisely, we can pay down the debt, deal with the retirement of the baby boomers, invest more in our future and provide tax relief. 只要这样做,就会带来更低的利率、更大的经济繁荣,从而能够迎接将来更大的挑战。如果我们做出明智的选择,我们就能偿还债务,解决(二战后出生的)一大批人们的退休问题,对未来进行更多的投资,并减轻税收。 Second, because the world is more connected every day in every way, Americas security and prosperity require us to continue to lead in the world. At this remarkable moment in history, more people live in freedom that ever before. Our alliances are stronger than ever. People all around the world look to America to be a force for peace and prosperity, freedom and security. The global economy is giving more of our own people, and billions around the world, the chance to work and live and raise their families with dignity. 第二,世界各国的联系日益紧密。为了美国的安全与繁荣,我们应继续融入世界。在这个特别的历史时刻,更多的美国人民享有前所未有的自由。我们的盟国更加强大。全世界人民期望美国成为和平与繁荣、自由与安全的力量。全球经济给予美国民众以及全世界人民更多的机会去工作、生活,更体面地养活家庭。But the forces of integration that have created these good opportunities also make us more subject to global forces of destruction, to terrorism, organized crime and narco-trafficking, the spread of deadly weapons and disease, the degradation of the global environment. 但是,这种世界融合的趋势一方面为我们创造了良好的机会,但同时使得我们在全球范围内更容易遭致破坏性力量、恐怖主义、有组织的犯罪、贩毒活动,致命性武器和疾病传播的威胁。The expansion of trade hasnt fully closed the gap between those of us who live on the cutting edge of the global economy and the billions around the world who live on the knifes edge of survival. 尽管世界贸易不断扩大,但它没能缩小处于全球经济繁荣中的我们同数十亿处于死亡边缘的人们之间的距离。This global gap requires more than compassion. It requires action. Global poverty is a powder keg that could be ignited by our indifference.In his first inaugural address, Thomas Jefferson warned of entangling alliances. But in our times, America cannot and must not disentangle itself from the world. If we want the world to embody our shared values, then we must assume a shared responsibility.要解决世界贫富两极分化需要的不是同情和怜悯,而是实际行动。贫穷有可能被我们的漠不关心激化而成为火药桶。托马斯-杰斐逊在他的就职演说中告诫我们结盟的危害。但是,在我们这个时代,美国不能,也不可能使自己脱离这个世界。如果我们想把我们共有的价值观赋予这个世界,我们必须共同承担起这个责任。If the wars of the 20th century, especially the recent ones in Kosovo and Bosnia, have taught us anything, it is that we achieve our aims by defending our values and leading the forces of freedom and peace. We must embrace boldly and resolutely that duty to lead, to stand with our allies in word and deed, and to put a human face on the global economy so that expanded trade benefits all people in all nations, lifting lives and hopes all across the world. 如果20世纪的历次战争,尤其是新近在科索沃地区和波斯尼亚爆发的战争,能够让我们得到某种教训的话,我们从中得到的启示应是:由于捍卫了我们的价值观并领导了自由和和平的力量,我们才达到了目标。我们必须坚定勇敢地拥抱这个信念和责任,在语言和行动上与我们的同盟者们站在一起,领导他们按这条道路前进;循着在全球经济中以人为本的观念,让不断发展的贸易能够使所有国家的所有人受益,在全世界范围内提高他们的生活水平和实现他们的梦想。Third, we must remember that America cannot lead in the world unless here at home we weave the threads of our coat of many colors into the fabric of one America. As we become ever more diverse, we must work harder to unite around our common values and our common humanity. 第三,我们必须牢记如果我们不团结一致,美国就不能领先世界。随着我们变得越来越多样化,我们必须更加努力地团结在共同价值观和共同人性的旗帜下。We must work harder to overcome our differences. In our hearts and in our laws, we must treat all our people with fairness and dignity, regardless of their race, religion, gender or sexual orientation and regardless of when they arrived in our country, always moving toward the more perfect union of our founders dreams. 我们要加倍努力地工作,克服生活中存在的种种分歧。于情于法,我们都要让我们的人民受到公正的待遇,不论他是哪一个民族、信仰何种宗教、什么性别或性倾向,或者何时来到这个国家。我们时时刻刻都要为了实现先辈们建立高度团结的美利坚合众国的梦想而奋斗。Hillary, Chelsea and I join all Americans in wishing our very best to the next president, George W. Bush, to his family and his administration in meeting these challenges and in leading freedoms march in this new century. 希拉里、切尔西和我同美国人民一起,向即将就任的布什总统、他的家人及美国新政府致以衷心的祝福,希望新政府能够勇敢面对挑战,并高扛自由大旗在新世纪阔步前进。As for me, Ill leave the presidency more idealistic, more full of hope than the day I arrived and more confident than ever that Americas best days lie ahead. 对我来说,当我离开总统宝座时,我充满更多的理想,比初进白宫时更加充满希望,并且坚信美国的好日子还在后面。My days in this office are nearly through, but my days of service, I hope, are not. In the years ahead, I will never hold a position higher or a covenant more sacred than that of president of the United States. But there is no title I will wear more proudly than that of citizen.我的总统任期就要结束了,但是我希望我为美国人民服务的日子永远不会结束。在我未来的岁月里,我再也不会担任一个能比美利坚合众国总统更高的职位、签订一个比美利坚合众国总统所能签署的更为神圣的契约了。当然,没有任何一个头衔能让我比作为一个美国公民更为自豪的了。Thank you. God bless you, and God bless America.谢谢你们!愿上帝保佑你们!愿上帝保佑美国!Let Your Mind Wander 让头脑畅想 Until recently daydreaming
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