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Unit 8 The Art of Smart Guessing1.几年前,我给应聘者面试,问他们“你有什么经验?”这个问题,后来逐渐问烦了。于是,我决定做一项单个问题的测试,从而了解这位新人是不是个善于解决问题的思考者。问题如下:2.您乘坐一艘游艇,横渡太平洋。驾驶员告诉您,游艇到了马里亚纳海沟最深的位置。此时,有个笨手笨脚的客人不小心把一个重达12磅的炮弹掉进海里。炮弹沉到海底要多久?3.在您往下读之前,请先来回答这个问题要特别注意解题方法。4.您是不是因为“信息不够”就完全瞎猜呢?您是不是过于拘泥于细节,而没能得到“绝对正确”的答案?或者说,您是不是先全神贯注在两个最重要的问题上马里亚纳海沟有多深?炮弹在水里下沉的速度有多快?然后才敢做出估计?5.大多数的面试者就是胡乱瞎猜,心想反正不可能百分之百地准确。很少有人愿意冒险做个估算。6.这与业务或创造性有什么关系吗?关系大着呢。在现实世界里,我们经常在没有充分信息时,需要做出决定。从吃什么到怎样养育孩子,有创意的人必须自己来思考。想要十拿九稳地做出决定,您也许既没有时间也没有金钱。做出最佳的猜测常常是您最佳的选择。7.譬如说,假设需要您为一种新的电话设备撰写一份销售计划,这个设备可以将您的姓名、公司、地址和电话号码发送到其他人的电话上,既可视频显示又能打印。除了像大众供货商和电子商店这些传统销售渠道,您得了解美国究竟有多少家“电话商店”。遗憾的是,无论从市场研究部门还是从美国政府的官方数据,都查不到这个数字。那您怎么办?8.有一个方法,那就是您到当地的图书馆去,取出全国各地的几本电话号码簿,翻到黄页,然后开始数数。那么,您可以猜出在数过的每个城市里,每十万人有几家电话商店。顺便说一句,我认识的一位营销顾问为一家大型长途通讯客户正是这么做的。9.这个关于电话商店的问题是科学家们称之为费米问题的例子。这是以诺贝尔奖获得者恩里科费米命名的,他用类似的问题教授学生独立思考的方法。费米问题并不包括您所需要准确解决问题的所有信息。10.据说,有一次费米问自己的大学生芝加哥有多少个钢琴调音师。要回答这个问题,他提议将问题分解成比较小的、比较容易处理的问题,然后鼓足勇气做些猜测和设想。芝加哥有多少居民?三百万是个合理的估计。每家有几口人?假设平均四个人。有多少人家有钢琴?比如说三家里有一家。那么,芝加哥大约有250,000架钢琴。每架钢琴多久调一次音?或许五年一次。那就一年调50,000次音。一个调音师一天可以调几架钢琴?四架?一年几架?假设有250个工作日,一个调音师一年可以调1,000架钢琴。11.因此,芝加哥有大约50名钢琴调音师的工作岗位果然,这与黄页上的确切数字大致相当。12.猜测的结果为什么那么的精确?这与平均律有关系。在某一点上,您的假设也许太高或太低。但是由于平均律的原因,您的差错常会被抵消。13.这儿还有一道智力题。很可能您已经知道,黑颜色吸收的热量最多,白颜色反射的热量最多。但是,两者之间的其他颜色怎么样呢?您怎么找到答案呢?提示:在冬天,不太寒冷的时候。14. 本富兰克林的解答简明扼要。在一个阳光明媚的上午,他在雪地上铺上各种颜色的平布。“几个小时以后,”他汇报道,“这块黑色的,接受的阳光最多,下沉到阳光晒不到的地方;深蓝色的,几乎低到同样的位置;浅蓝色的到不了深蓝色的位置;其他颜色的,颜色越浅,下沉得越少,而这比较白的还在雪地的表面,根本就没有下沉。”15.我最喜爱的猜测者是发明家斯坦梅森。他发明了微波餐具,为将食品放在烹调最佳的位置上而专门设计的。16.要做到这一点,梅森需要知道微波“热点”的位置就是微波光线以最高强度集中到食品上的地方。为了找到答案,他把没有爆的玉米粒一层层地放在微波炉中,观察哪些玉米先爆。他发现了微波炉最热的微波光线的分布:不是在角落上,也不是在中央,而是呈蘑菇云的形状。17. 于是,他就设计了符合这个分布的烹调盘子。他很聪明地凭借近似的方法获得了答案,而不是用复杂的科学实验设备算出来的。18. 费米完全会赞同的。19. 顺便说一句,马里亚纳海沟大约深6海里,炮弹每秒钟下降10英尺。因此,炮弹沉到沟底需一个小时左右。20. 这个猜得出来吗?如果您知道地球的最高点珠穆朗玛峰是29,000英尺,您也许会合理地得出结论:最低点大约也是这个距离。然后,您可以想象,一个重物需要1秒钟掉到10英尺深游泳池的底部。这样估计的话,您将得到接近正确的答案。Text Comprehension 1. Decide which of the following best states the authors purpose.A. To introduce an effective method of interviewing candidates.B. To decide on a new quiz to find out how resourceful a thinker might be.C. To provide an access to gaining necessary information.D. To recommend a creative model of thinking in decision-making.Key: D 2. Judge, according to the text, whether the following statements are true or false.1). The author asked the readers to pay close attention to the method to be used in solving the quiz question. T 2). The best way to know the number of phone stores in the United States is to go to the local library to do statistical research. F 3). To illustrate the smart guessing approach, the author has cited all together seven examples. F 4). The law of averages is partly responsible for the accuracy of our guesswork because our assumptions at the two extremes usually balance out. T Writing StrategiesThis text is a typical piece of exposition developed by exemplification. The title, The Art of Smart Guessing, points out the theme of the text. The introduction, which presents the background of the text, is very appealing to the readers. In the body of the text, a Fermi problem is defined and illustrated with specific examples. The examples are provided to show what a Fermi problem is, to tell us how it can be solved, and to suggest the significance of the art of smart guessing. It is worth noting that the conclusion echoes the beginning, contributing to the formation of the organic unity of the essay. The writer has incorporated descriptions, anecdotes, opinions, and facts into a highly individual expository essay.The two questions below are worthy of our attention:(1) In what way is the introduction connected with the conclusion?In the beginning a one-question quiz is described, in which an interesting question is asked, and in the conclusion its answer is offered, with the smart guessing process presented. Thus, the beginning and the conclusion are naturally connected with each other. (2)In the body of the essay the author gives some typical examples to illustrate a Fermi problem. How many examples are presented? What do you think of the examples? Altogether, four examples are provided to explain a Fermi problem. They are very typical examples that best illustrate what a Fermi problem is. Language Work1.Explain the underlined part in each sentence in your own words.1). Did you make a completely wild guess a simply groundless prediction far from being correct2). Did you get too bogged down in the details trying to come up with the exactly right answer? stumped or baffled; work out3). Or did you zero in on the two most important problems? come to concentrate on and deal with4). To answer the question, he recommended breaking it down into smaller, more manageable questions. dividing it into5). Because of the law of averages, your mistakes will frequently balance out.be of little importance in terms of number2. Fill in each blank with one of the two words from each pair in their appropriate forms and note the difference of meaning between them.hazard ventureBoth words mean confronting an uncertain or precarious situation with the intention or hope of obtaining a satisfactory outcome. Venture is used to show courteous disagreement or resolve, while hazard contains an added suggestion of damage, loss, or injury not to be lightly ignored.1). I would hazard a guess that they will do well in the next election. 2). After a casual chat about the local famine, the woman ventured to answer our cautious questions. 3). Patrolling the US border with Mexico is as far as he has ventured into geopolitics.4). He could not believe that, had the Englishman known how much he was at risk, he would have hazarded his grandson.conventional traditionalBoth words can refer to something that is usually used or has been in use for a long time. Conventional refers to opinions or behaviour that are usual or normal, while traditional refers to a preference of older methods or ideas to modern ones. The conventional wisdom about something is the generally accepted view of it. 1). When most subscribed to the conventional wisdom that soccer is a minor sport in America, the victory had a real impact on the whole population.2). The secretary of defense argued that conventional weapons will soon be the least of our worries as weapons of mass destruction have found their way into the hands of individuals. 3). These two parties, which are traditional rivals, describe the election as a war between neo-liberalism and communism. 4). The local people are still very traditional in many ways, refusing to send their daughters to school. contain includeInclude can indicate clearly defined subdivisions within a whole, and it may not suggest an exhaustive listing of parts or elements. Contain can indicate discrete things held or enclosed by a larger object. The two words may be interchangeable when indicating the parts or elements making up a whole. Contain, however, can function only when some sense of enclosure within the whole exists.1). Transport is not included but can be arranged. 2). The envelope contained a typed, unsigned letter demanding one million in cash.3). The dead included six people attending a religious ceremony.4). Seemingly inconsequential details can sometimes contain significant clues. guesssupposeBoth words refer to the tentative adoption of an idea or interpretation in face of incomplete evidence or uncertainty. Suppose is used to present a proposal or opinion in a tentative way, making it come as a suggestion rather than as a directive. When indicating any hazarding of opinion, guess is more likely to suggest a completely arbitrary notion or a lack of information or authority, or even suggest a bluff or a futile groping in the dark without any hope of success, and in contrast here, suppose can suggest a shrewd notion based on some evidence. 1). Suppose someone gave you an egg and asked you to describe what exactly was inside. 2). Ask the children to guess what is in each container by dipping their hands in. 3). The authors intention is to keep everyone guessing until the bitter end. 4). Everyone was supposed to dance with the bride and pin money on her dress. 3.Fill in the blank in each sentence with a word or phrase taken from the box, using its appropriate form.resourcefulhazardintensityoutletmerchandiseestimatetrenchkernelvisualquiznautical approximate1). This figure is five times the original estimate.2). They have no way to dispose of the hazardous waste they produce.3). Britain is intensifying its efforts to secure the release of three British hostages.4). Translation must always be a process of approximation and compromise. 5). Theres a sizzling summer of soccer ahead were kicking it off with a series of cracking quizzes. 6). Turning that vision into a reality is not easy. 7). I dont envisage I will take an executive role, but rather become a consultant on merchandise and marketing. 8). Surely it is economic nonsense to deplete the world of natural resources. 4. Make a sentence of your own for each of the given words with meanings other than those used in the text. You may change the part of speech of these words.1). wild As the Super Girls came on stage they went wild.2). elegant The article impressed me with its elegant simplicity. 3). raise All funds raised will be used for children with leukaemia.4). figure Janet was a natural blonde with a good figure.5). stroke It didnt rain, which turned out to be a stroke of luck. 6). kernel The kernel of that message is that peace is a source of advantage for the poor. 5. Combine each pair of simple sentences into a complex sentence, using proper subordinators. 1). My wife was mowing the lawn. I was trying to listen to music. While my wife was mowing the lawn, I was trying to listen to music. 2). The weather remains fine. I see no reason why the village fete should not be a success. If / Provided that the weather remains fine, I see no reason why the village fete should not be a success. 3). He lost his cell-phone somewhere. The lecture hall might be the place. The lecture hall might be the place where he lost his cell-phone. 4). The travelers were trapped in the cave. One of them has already been brought out. One of the travelers who was trapped in the cave has already been brought out. 5). He was lying. That is quite obvious. It is quite obvious that he was lying. 6). An Australian friend is coming to see me. I made his acquaintance in Sydney last year. An Australian friend whose acquaintance I made in Sydney last year is coming to see me. 7). Sickness kept him away from school. He didnt get the prize. He didnt get the prize because sickness kept him away from school. 8). You promise to come back in time. You shall not go to the party tonight. You shall not go to the party tonight unless you promise to come back in time. 9). Lucy spoke English fast. I couldnt understand her. I couldnt understand Lucy because she spoke English too fast. 10). His wife waited up. He came home. His wife waited up until he came home. Translation1. Translating Sentences1). 不要让自己陷入没完没了的考试准备之中。 (bog down) Dont let yourself get bogged down in endless exam preparation.be/get bogged down: to be or become so involved with one particular thing that you cannot make any progresse.g. The meeting got bogged down with disputes about who was going to do what.2). 我小心地把花放在靠窗的地方,这样它可以得到充足的阳光。 (position) I carefully positioned the flower near the window so that it could get plenty of sunlight.position v. to put something in a particular placee.g.Position the microphone as close as possible to the source of the sound.Once the paper is positioned correctly, the printer should print with no problems.3). 没人能猜出这场纠纷何时会结束。 (hazard a guesstimate) No one would hazard a guesstimate of when the dispute would come to an end.hazard v.to make a guess or suggestion about something when you are not sure if it is truee.g.Let me hazard a guess youre an Aquarius.4). 这个月开销很大,不过下个月我们会有更多的进账,所以这阶段的收支会平衡得很好的。 (balance out) It seems a lot to spend this month, but we will get in a lot more next month, so itll balance out over the period. balance / balance something out: to reduce the effect, strength, or amount of something, and as a result make it bettere.g.The dark colors are balanced by the brightness of the walls.Dont worry; itll all balance out in the end.5). 他足智多谋,富有创意,令人惊叹,对我的事业举足轻重。 (resourceful) He is amazingly incomparably inventive and resourceful, and plays a major role in my career.resourceful adj. good at finding effective ways to deal with problemse.g.The resourceful jurist formed a plan to recover his own laurels. 6). 乐队调试好音准后,指挥走上了舞台。 (tune up) After the orchestra had tuned up the conductor walked up onto the stage.tune / tune up: to make small changes to a musical instrument so that it produces the correct notese.g. He was in the next room, tuning up his guitar.7). 现代军用飞机使用计算机瞄准目标。 (zero in) Modern military aircraft use computers to zero in on their targets. zero in on someone/something: to aim at someone or something with a gun, camera or somethinge.g.The senate zero in on the Latin-American problem. 8). 她想出了一个绝妙的主意来劝说老板给她双份工资。 (come up with) Shes come up with a brilliant idea to persuade her boss to double her income. come up with something: to think of something such as an idea or a plane.g.Is that the best you can come up with?2. Translating PassageTranslate the following into English.使自己摆脱某些教条的好办法之一是了解自己生活圈子以外人们所持的观点。你要是觉得人们和报纸失却常理,颠倒是非,甚至邪恶,这时你就得提醒自己,在他们眼里你没有什么两样。这么思考双方都可能是对的,却不可能都是错的。这样的反思可以给人一个警觉。 想像力丰富的人可以设想自己跟一个不同见解的人进行辩论,这不失为一个好办法。相比真正的辩论,这样做有一个好处,也仅有一个好处,那就是它不受时空的限制。 参考译文:A good way of ridding yourself of certain kinds of dogmatism is to become aware of opinions held in social circles different from your own. If the people and the newspaper seem mad, perverse, and wicked, remind yourself that you seem so to them. In this opinion both parties may be right, but they cannot both be wrong. This reflection should generate a certain caution.For those who have enough psychological imagination, it is a good plan to imagine an argument with a person having a different bias. This has one advantage, and only one, as compared with actual conversation with opponents; this one advantage is that the method is not subject to the same limitations of time and space.Oral PresentationGive your own examples of some inventions based on smart guesses.Listening ExercisesListen to the talk once and complete the following task.Task: listen to the talk once. Supply the missing information in the following note.Enrico Fermi: Noble Prize winner of (1) physics in the year of (2) 19381.Major contributions: to both (3) theoretical and experimental physics2. The most well-known contribution: the demonstration of (4) the atomic fission reaction3.Role in the development of fission for use: as (5) an energy source and weapon4. Atoms release energy in the form of: (6) heat and radiation when they split.5. In 1939, several American physicist, including German-born (7) American physicists Albert Einstein, warned U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt of the danger that Germany might be developing (8) an atomic bomb by (9) the fission chain reactions.6. The Manhattan Project in the year of (10) 1942: (11) the American effort to develop an atomic bomb; Fermi (12) deigned and presided over the first controlled fission reaction7. The first atomic bomb: tested by the United States in (13) July 19458. The United States dropped atomic bombs: in (14) August of that year on (15) two cities in JapanScriptFermi, Enrico (1901-1954), Italian-born American physicist and Nobel Prize winner, who made important contributions to both theoretical and experimental physics. Fermis most well-known contribution was the demonstration of the first controlled atomic fission reaction. Atomic fission occurs when an atom splits apart. Fermi was the first scientist to split an atom, although he misinterpreted his results for several years. He also had an important role in the development of fission for use as an energy source and as a weapon. He won the 1938 Nobel Prize in physics for his work in bombarding atoms with neutrons, subatomic particles with no electric charge.Fermi and other scientists realized the potential power of fission, or the splitting of atoms. Atoms release energy in the form of heat and radiation when they split. Because fission is triggered by neutrons, and atoms release neutrons when they split, one fission reaction can start more reactions, creating a self-sustaining, or chain, reaction. The more fission reactions that occur, the more energy the system releases. In 1939 Fermi, Hungarian-born American physicist Leo Szilard, and German-born American physicist Albert Einstein went to U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt with the concern that fission chain reactions could be used as weapons, and that Germany might be developing such a weaponan atomic bomb. In 1942, the Manhattan Project, the American effort to develop an atomic bomb, officially began. By the end of the year Fermi had designed and presided over the first controlled fission reaction, which occurred in an unused squash court in the basement of Stagg Field at the University of Chicago. In July 1945 the United States tested the first atomic bomb, and in August of that year the United States dropped atomic bombs on two cities in Japan, Hiroshima and Nagasaki
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