亚化咨询：中国锂离子电池电解液生产现状与展望.doc

亚化咨询：中国锂离子电池电解液生产现状与展望电解液是锂离子电池(LIB)四大关键材料之一。锂离子电池的产量直接决定了电解液的市场需求。虽然业内目前普遍认为2015年以前电动汽车和储能用锂离子电池难以获得预期中的高速发展，但IT电池（特别是智能手机和平板电脑）的旺盛需求，以及小型储能设备的发展，将支撑我国锂离子电池的行业的不断增长。2011年中国锂离子电池行业（包括在中国的合资和外资企业）完成产量为29.66亿只，同比增长18.22%。2012年1-6月，中国锂离子电池产量已达17.84亿只，同比增长34.64%。全球和中国锂离子电池产量的稳步增长使国际巨头对电解液市场前景看好。2011年12月，陶氏化学与日本宇部各50%股份的合资企业Advanced Electrolyte Technologies LLC获得监管部门批准，在美国密歇根州建设5000吨/年锂离子电池(LIB)电解液生产装置，预计2012年投产。该公司未来还计划在中国和欧洲建设生产设施。2012年1月，巴斯夫成立电池材料全球业务部门，整合公司内部相关业务资源。并于2012年2月收购德国默克（Merck）电解液业务，2012年4月收购美国诺莱特(Novolyte Technologies)。通过收购，巴斯夫成为在欧洲、美国和亚太地区同时拥有锂离子电池电解液生产基地的国际化供应商。2012年2月，由日本三菱化学投资的常熟菱锂电池材料有限公司新建年产2万吨锂离子电池电解液项目获核准。项目总投资2.81亿元，建设地点为江苏常熟经济技术开发区。与此同时，中国内资电解液领军企业也纷纷进行产能扩张。截至2012年9月，包括合资和外资企业，中国锂离子电池电解液已投产的产能达4.61万吨，拟在建的产能4.2万吨，如下表所示。2011年全球锂离子电池电解液产量约为4.3万吨，生产主要集中于日本、韩国和中国，其中中国产量约为2万吨。预计我国2012年离子电池电解液产量约为2.4万吨，比2011年增长20%，产能利用率为50%左右。我国锂离子电池电解液供过于求的现状以及六氟磷酸锂国产化带来的成本降低，使锂离子电池电解液的价格逐年下跌，中端产品含税价格已经从2006年的近10万元/吨下跌至目前的7万元/吨左右。由于六氟磷酸锂占电解液成本的50%以上，主要电解液生产商，如天津金牛、汕头金光、广州天赐、国泰华荣、苏州诺莱特等都在寻求自行或合作建设六氟磷酸锂生产装置，以降低成本，提升企业竞争力。展望未来，亚化咨询预计，3-5年内电动汽车的产量不会有突破性进展，锂离子电池的市场增长还将由智能手机和平板电脑等产品驱动。而我国已投产和拟在建的锂离子电池电解液总产能达8.81万吨，产能过剩的现象将长期存在，生产商面临激烈的市场竞争。因此，电解液的生产企业，需要与下游锂离子电池生产商展开紧密合作，开发符合客户需求的电解液产品，并加强售后服务，将是电解液行业的发展趋势。亚化咨询同时预测，聚合物锂离子电池拥有更灵活的产品形状，更高的能量密度和更好的安全性，将成为未来智能手机、平板电脑和超级本电池的主要选择方向。这一趋势也值得传统电解液生产商重点关注。2012中国锂电池电解液研讨会将于11月8-9日在苏州召开。会议期间，亚化咨询将发布中国锂离子电池电解液发展现状与展望2012，并作为增值服务赠送给参会代表。参会等会议相关事务请打电话://106直接与Cindy&黄小姐联系 或直接Email: ASIACHEM: China LIB Electrolytes Production Status & OutlookElectrolyte is one of 4 key materials of lithium ion battery (LIB). The market demand of electrolyte is directly determined by the output of LIB. Although it is generally agreed that by 2015, the development of electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage used LIB are not fast as expected. However, the demands from IT used (particularly the smart phones and tablet PCs) batteries, and small energy storage devices will keep increasing, and still support the continuous growth of Chinas LIB industry.China LIB industry (including joint ventures and foreign invested producers) completed production of 2.966 billion units in 2011, with a year-on-year growth of 18.22%. Then, LIB production reached 1.784 billion in H1 2012, with 34.64% year-on-year growth. Chinas steady growths of LIB production make multinationals have positive market prospects on electrolytes.In Dec.2011, DOW Chemicals and Japans Ube 50:50 joint venture of Advanced Electrolytes Technologies LLC approved by authorities, the jv is proposed to build 5 kt/a LIB electrolytes project in Michigan U.S, and expected to start up in 2012. The jv still plans to build production facilities in China and Europe in the future.In Jan.2012, BASF established battery material global business department and integrated internal related resources. In Feb. 2012, BASF acquired Mercks electrolyte business; in Apr. 2012, the company purchased Novolyte Technologies. After these acquisitions, BASF becomes global supplier of lithium battery electrolytes production bases in Europe, U.S and Asian-Pacific region.In Feb.2012, Japans Mitsubishi Chemical got approval for its 20 kt/a LIB electrolytes project to be operated by its subsidiary Lingli Changshu Battery Materials Co.,Ltd. The project located in Changshu Economic and Technical Development Zone, Jiangsu Province, with total investment of CNY 281 million.At the same time, Chinas domestic electrolytes leading producers are also expanding capacities. By Sep. 2012, including joint ventures and foreign invested producers, the Chinas total existing LIB electrolyte has reached 46.1 kt/a, the proposed and under-construction capacities of 42 kt/a, as shown in the following table. The output of global LIB electrolytes is about 43 kt/a in 2011, production is mainly concentrated in Japan, South Korea and China, which the Chinese production of about 20 kt/a. Its expected Chinas LIB electrolyte production of about 24 kt in 2012, with 20% increase compared 2011; capacity utilization is about 50%.the oversupply of China LIB electrolytes as well as the cost reduction due to lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) production localization, the price of LIB electrolytes declined year by year, for mid-end product price (tax included) has gone from nearly CNY 100,000/t in 2006 down to the current CNY 70,000 / t. As the LiPF6 accounts for more than 50% cost of the electrolytes, so, the major electrolytes producers, such as Tianjin Jinniu, Shantou JinGuang, Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology, Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong New Chemical Materials, Suzhou Novolyte Technologies are seeking to produce LiPF6 by themselves or cooperative way, in order to reduce costs and enhance the competitiveness.In the coming 3-5 years, ASIACHEM estimates that the production of EV will not have a boom in China, and LIB market growth will also be driven by IT products or small energy storage devices. Chinas total LIB electrolyte capacity will reach 88.1 kt/a, the overcapacity will be last for a long time; producers will face fierce market competition. ASIACHEM considers future development trend will focus on working closely with the downstream LIB manufacturers to develop the customized electrolytes products, and strengthen after-sales service.Also, ASIACHEM estimates that Lithium-ion polymer batteries (LIP) will become the main choice for smart phones, tablet PCs, and ultrabook batteries, thanks to the more flexible product shape, higher energy density and better safety. It is necessary to be concerned by the traditional electrolytes producers.201