高盛 2010年全球经济研究为什么世界比你想的更好

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 1Why the world is better than you thinkJim ONeillManaging Director Head of Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy ResearchMay 2010渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 2Change in US$ Size of GDP from 2000 to 20090500100015002000250030003500400045005000U S $ b nS ou r c e : I M F, G S G l ob a l E C S R e s e a r c h* 2 0 0 0 G D P w a s a dj us t e d f or t he up da t e d 2 0 0 3 r e - ba s e of t he s e r i e s .C h a n g e i n U S $ s i ze o f G D P f r o m 2 0 0 0 t o 2 0 0 9渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 3GDP ForecastsSource: GS Global ECS ResearchGS C o n s e n s u s * GS C o n s e n s u s *U S A 0 . 4 - 2 . 4 2 . 9 3 . 2 2 . 5 3 . 1J a pa n - 1 . 2 - 5 . 2 2 . 4 2 . 2 1 . 8 1 . 6E urol a nd 0 . 5 - 4 . 0 1 . 7 1 . 2 2 . 2 1 . 5UK 0 . 5 - 4 . 9 1 . 7 1 . 3 3 . 3 2 . 3E urop e 0 . 7 - 3 . 9 1 . 8 1 . 3 2 . 5 1 . 8C hi na 9 . 6 8 . 7 1 1 . 4 9 . 9 1 0 . 0 9 . 0I nd i a 6 . 7 6 . 6 8 . 2 8 . 2 8 . 7 8 . 4B r a z i l 5 . 1 - 0 . 2 7 . 5 5 . 5 4 . 7 4 . 4R us s i a 5 . 6 - 7 . 9 5 . 8 4 . 7 6 . 1 4 . 6B R I C s 7 . 9 5 . 1 9 . 6 8 . 5 8 . 8 8 . 0A dv a nc e d E c on om i e s0 . 5 - 3 . 1 2 . 7 2 . 5 2 . 6 2 . 5W orl d 2 . 8 - 0 . 7 4 . 9 4 . 4 4 . 8 4 . 4* C o n s e n s u s E c o n o m i c s A p r i l 2 0 1 0% y o y 2008 20092010 2011渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 4Domestic Demand Forecasts (%)% y o y 2008 2 0 0 9 ( f ) 2 0 1 0 ( f ) 2 0 1 1 ( f )U S A - 0 . 7 - 3 . 4 2 . 8 2 . 3J a p a n - 1 . 3 - 4 . 0 1 . 4 1 . 4E u r o l a n d 0 . 5 - 3 . 4 0 . 9 1 . 4UK 0 . 1 - 5 . 3 1 . 7 2 . 4C h i n a 9 . 6 1 3 . 0 1 2 . 4 9 . 9I n d i a 4 . 8 4 . 9 7 . 6 9 . 7B R I C s 8 . 4 7 . 0 1 0 . 1 9 . 2A d v a n c e d E c o n o m i e s0 . 1 - 3 . 4 2 . 4 2 . 2W o r l d 2 . 7 - 0 . 4 4 . 8 4 . 5Source: GS Global ECS Research渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 5Inflation ForecastsSource: GS Global ECS ResearchGS C o n s e n s u s * GS C o n s e n s u s *U S A 3 . 8 - 0 . 3 1 . 8 2 . 1 0 . 6 1 . 9J a pa n 1 . 4 - 1 . 3 - 1 . 4 - 1 . 1 - 0 . 4 - 0 . 2E urol a nd 3 . 3 0 . 3 1 . 6 1 . 2 1 . 7 1 . 4UK 3 . 6 2 . 2 2 . 5 2 . 7 1 . 4 1 . 7E urop e 3 . 5 0 . 8 1 . 8 1 . 5 1 . 7 1 . 6C hi na 5 . 9 - 0 . 7 3 . 5 3 . 3 2 . 8 3 . 4I nd i a 8 . 4 3 . 7 7 . 5 7 . 0 6 . 0 5 . 6B r a z i l 5 . 7 4 . 9 5 . 5 4 . 8 6 . 1 4 . 7R us s i a 1 4 . 1 1 1 . 7 6 . 1 7 . 1 7 . 8 6 . 7B R I C s 7 . 5 2 . 5 4 . 9 4 . 7 4 . 3 4 . 3A dv a nc e d E c on om i e s3 . 4 0 . 2 1 . 5 1 . 5 1 . 2 1 . 6W orl d 5 . 4 1 . 7 3 . 2 3 . 2 2 . 8 3 . 0* C o n s e n s u s E c o n o m i c s A p r i l 2 0 1 0% y o y 2008 20092010 2011渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 6Credit Spreads20040060080010001200140016001800308013018023028006 07 08 09 10bpbpC D X I G (l h s )C D X H Y (r h s )Source: GS Global ECS Research渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 7Global Financial Conditions97989910010110210300 02 04 06 08 10I n d e x J a n 0 3 = 1 0 0G l o b a l F C IA d v a n c e d F C IE m e r g i n g F C IS ou r c e : G S G l ob a l E C S R e s e a r c h渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 8OECD Financial ConditionsSource: GS Global ECS Research97989910010110210300 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10I n d e x , J a n 2 0 0 0 = 100O EC D F C IO i l A u g m e n te d F C IE a s i e r C o n d i t i o n s渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 9China FCISource: GS Global ECS Research1021031041051061071081091 1 01111 1 200 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10I n d e xE a s i e r C o n d i t i o n sC h i n a F C I渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 10GLI vs IPSource: GS Global ECS Research- 20- 16- 12- 8- 404898 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10% y o yG LIG 7 I P渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 11China Lead IndicatorsSource: GS Global ECS Research969798991001011021031041051062468101214161897 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10I n d e x1 9 9 6 = 1 0 0% y o yG SC A (l h s )C EM A C - G S L e a d i n g I n d i c a to r (r h s )渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 12Euroland Leading Indicator vs Industrial ProductionSource: GS Global ECS Research- 9- 7- 5- 3- 11397 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10qoqI P, 3 m / 3 mL e a d i n g i n d i c a to rE u r o l a n d I P a n d l e a d i n g i n d i c a t o r ( 3 m / 3 m )渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 13Germanys Exports to Asia rising stabilisation elsewhere607080901001 1 0120130140Jan - 07 J u l - 07 Jan - 08 J u l - 08 Jan - 09 J u l - 09 Jan - 10 J u l - 10i n d e xJ a n 0 7 = 1 0 0S o u r c e : H a v e r A n a l y t i c s , G S c a l c u l a t i o n sC h i n aI n d i aR u s s i aUSUKF r a n c eJ a p a nI t a l yS p a i n渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 14Greece CDS Spread Vs Euro FCI9 7 . 89 8 . 09 8 . 29 8 . 49 8 . 69 8 . 89 9 . 09 9 . 29 9 . 420030040050060070080090010001 1 0 0Jan - 10 F e b - 10 M a r - 10 A p r - 10 M a y - 10I n d e xI n d e x5 - y r G r e e c e C D SE u r o l a n d F C I ( r h s )E a s i e rC o n d i t i o n s渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 15Greece CDS Vs German IFO959697989910010110220030040050060070080090010001 1 0 0Jan - 10 F e b - 10 M a r - 10 A p r - 10 M a y - 10I n d e xI n d e x5 - y r G r e e c e C D SG e r m a n I F O ( r h s )渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 16Each Countrys Share of Euroland GDP051015202530GermanyFranceItalySpainNetherlandsBelgiumAustriaGreeceFinlandIrelandPortugalSlovakiaLuxembourgSloveniaCyprusMalta% E u r o l a n d G D PC o u n t r y s S h a r e o f E u r o l a n d G D P ( 2 0 0 9 )渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 17C y c l i c a l l y A d j u s t e d B u d g e t D e f i c i t ( % G D P ) * *G r o s s g e n e r a l g o v e r n m e n t d e b t ( % o f G D P ) * * *G e r m a n y * - 1 . 9 7 6 . 3F r a n c e - 7 . 0 7 7 . 8I t a l y - 3 . 5 1 1 4 . 9S p a i n - 1 0 . 0 5 5 . 2N e t h e r l a n d s - 3 . 2 6 1 . 5B e l g i u m - 4 . 6 9 7 . 9A u s t r i a - 3 . 3 6 7 . 6G r e e c e - 1 2 . 6 1 1 3 . 4F i n l a n d - 0 . 5 3 9 . 6I r e l a n d - 9 . 6 6 4 . 5P o r t u g a l - 6 . 6 7 6 . 6S l o v a k i a - 6 . 0 3 4 . 7* Co u n tr i e s l i s te d a c c o r d i n g to th e i r s h a r e o f E u r o l a n d G D P .* * S o u r c e : E u r o p e a n Co mmi s s i o n* * * S o u r c e : E u r o s ta t, G S e s ti ma te s .Euroland Budget Deficit and Government Debt渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 18Retail Sales US and BRICsSource: GS Global ECS Research- 12- 8- 40481216202428323604 05 06 07 08 09 10% y o yU S A B r a z i l B R I C sR us s i a C hi na I nd i a * P r i v a t e f i n a l c o n s u m p t i o n渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 19Recent Trend in Real Retail SalesSource: GS Global ECS Research- 60- 40- 20020406080Jan - 07 J u l - 07 Jan - 08 J u l - 08 Jan - 09 J u l - 09 Jan - 10U S D B i l l i o n J a n 2 0 0 7U . S .C h i n aC h a n g e i n R e a l R e t a i l S a l e s S i n c e J a n 2 0 0 7渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 20Real Retail Sales in Developed vs EM- 60- 40- 20020406080100120140Jan - 07 J u l - 07 Jan - 08 J u l - 08 Jan - 09 J u l - 09 Jan - 10B i l $ W o r l dA d v a n c e dE m e r g i n gC h a n g e i n R e a l R e t a i l S a l e s S i n c e J a n 2 0 0 7渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 21Chinese Export and Import GrowthSource: GS Global ECS Research- 40- 2002040608005 06 07 08 09 10% y o y , 3 M M AT o t a l E x p o rt sT o t a l I m p o rt sN o n - C o m m o d i t y I m p o rt s渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 22Inflation Expectations in USSource: GS Global ECS Research2 . 52 . 72 . 93 . 13 . 33 . 53 . 795 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10% y o yU n i v e r s i ty o f M i c h i g a n 5 - y r I n fl a ti o n Ex p e c ta ti o n s渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 23GSDEER Estimates for Major CountriesE U R / $ S p o t *G S D E E R Q 2 - 2 0 1 0% D e v i a t i o n f r o m G S D E E R5 - Y r F o r e c a s tE U R / $ 1 . 2 8 1 . 2 2 5 1 . 2 0$ / Y e n 9 3 . 4 0 1 0 6 . 4 0 14 1 0 8 . 1 2 / $ 1 . 4 9 1 . 5 8 - 5 . 9 1 . 5 5$ / C N Y 6 . 8 2 6 . 9 2 1 . 4 5 . 8 5$ / C A D 1 . 0 3 1 . 1 3 1 0 . 5 1 . 1 6A U D / $ 0 . 9 0 0 . 8 1 1 1 . 3 0 . 7 9$ / K R W 1132 1300 1 4 . 9 975$ T W I 2 1 2 . 1 2 3 3 . 5 - 1 0 . 1 -* a s o f 1 0 M a y 2 0 1 0Source: GS Global ECS Research渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 24Current Estimates for the Equity Risk Premium*Source: GS Global ECS ResearchR e a l G D P G r o w t hR e a l E a r n i n g s G r o w t h +D i v i d e n d Y i e l d =E x p e c t e d R e a l R e t u r n -R e a l B o n d Y i e l d =I m p l i e d E R PE x p e c t e d I n f l a t i o n E x p e c t e d N o m i n a l R e t u r nUS 3 . 0 3 . 0 1 . 9 4 . 9 1 . 3 3 . 6 2 . 0 6 . 9J a p a n 1 . 5 1 . 5 1 . 7 3 . 2 0 . 8 2 . 4 0 . 5 3 . 7UK 2 . 8 2 . 8 3 . 5 6 . 3 -1 . 1 7 . 4 2 . 0 8 . 3E u r o p e e x U K 2 . 3 2 . 3 3 . 1 5 . 4 -1 . 1 6 . 5 2 . 0 7 . 4W o r l d 2 . 5 2 . 5 2 . 4 4 . 9 0 . 3 4 . 7 1 . 8 6 . 7O p t i m i s t i c W o r l d 4 . 0 4 . 0 2 . 4 6 . 4 0 . 3 6 . 2 1 . 8 8 . 2* C a l c u l a te d a s o f 1 0 M a y 2 0 1 0 渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 25Trend in Forward P/EsSource: GS Global ECS Research0510152025303506 07 08 09 101 2 m t h f o r w a r d P EU n i te d Sta te s J a p a nC h i n a IndiaEu r o p e R u s s i aB r a z i l渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 26Interest Rate ForecastsSource: GS Global ECS Research3 -m o n th h o r i zo n 6 -m o n th h o r i zo n 1 2 -m o n th h o r i zo nC u r r e n t* F o r w a r d F o r e c a s t F o r w a r d F o r e c a s t F o r w a r d F o r e c a s tUS 3M 0 . 4 0 . 6 0 . 3 0 . 8 0 . 3 1 . 2 0 . 310Y 3 . 5 3 . 7 3 . 5 3 . 8 3 . 3 4 . 1 3 . 5C a n a d a 3M 0 . 7 1 . 2 0 . 4 1 . 6 0 . 4 2 . 3 1 . 210Y 3 . 6 3 . 7 3 . 5 3 . 8 3 . 5 4 . 0 3 . 8A u s tr a l i a 3M 4 . 8 4 . 9 4 . 9 5 . 1 5 . 1 5 . 4 5 . 610Y 5 . 6 5 . 6 5 . 3 5 . 7 5 . 5 5 . 8 6 . 0J a p a n 3M 0 . 4 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 6 0 . 410Y 1 . 3 1 . 4 1 . 5 1 . 4 1 . 5 1 . 5 1 . 8Eu r o l a n d 3M 0 . 7 0 . 8 1 . 2 0 . 9 1 . 3 1 . 1 1 . 510Y 2 . 9 3 . 0 3 . 3 3 . 0 3 . 3 3 . 1 3 . 4UK 3M 0 . 7 0 . 9 0 . 7 1 . 1 1 . 3 1 . 5 2 . 310Y 3 . 9 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 1 4 . 0 4 . 4 4 . 3Sw e d e n 3M 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 5 0 . 9 1 . 0 1 . 4 2 . 510Y 2 . 7 2 . 8 3 . 3 2 . 9 3 . 4 3 . 1 3 . 8Sw i tze r l a n d 3M 0 . 2 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 3 0 . 5 1 . 5 1 . 010Y 1 . 6 1 . 7 2 . 0 1 . 7 2 . 1 1 . 9 2 . 3C l o s e 1 0 M a y 1 0渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 27Foreign Exchange Forecasts3 - m o n t h s 6 - m o n t h s 1 2 - m o n t h sC u r r e n t * F o r w a r d F o r e c a s t F o r w a r d F o r e c a s t F o r w a r d F o r e c a s tE U R / $ 1 . 2 8 1 . 2 8 1 . 3 5 1 . 2 8 1 . 3 5 1 . 2 8 1 . 3 5$ / 9 3 . 2 9 3 . 1 9 2 . 0 9 2 . 9 9 4 . 0 9 2 . 6 9 8 . 0E U R / 1 1 9 . 2 1 1 9 . 2 1 2 4 . 2 1 1 9 . 0 1 2 6 . 9 1 1 8 . 8 1 3 2 . 3E U R / C H F 1 . 4 2 1 . 4 2 1 . 4 0 1 . 4 1 1 . 3 8 1 . 4 1 1 . 4 0C H F / 8 4 . 0 0 8 4 . 0 8 8 8 . 7 1 8 4 . 1 4 9 1 . 9 6 8 4 . 1 9 9 4 . 5 0$ / C H F 1 . 1 1 1 . 1 1 1 . 0 4 1 . 1 0 1 . 0 2 1 . 1 0 1 . 0 4E U R / 0 . 8 6 0 . 8 6 0 . 8 7 0 . 8 6 0 . 8 4 0 . 8 6 0 . 8 4 / $ 1 . 4 9 1 . 4 9 1 . 5 5 1 . 4 9 1 . 6 1 1 . 4 9 1 . 6 1 / 1 3 8 . 6 1 3 8 . 4 1 4 2 . 8 1 3 8 . 2 1 5 1 . 1 1 3 7 . 6 1 5 7 . 5 / C H F 1 . 6 5 1 . 6 5 1 . 6 1 1 . 6 4 1 . 6 4 1 . 6 3 1 . 6 7E U R / N O K 7 . 8 6 7 . 9 0 8 . 0 0 7 . 9 3 7 . 9 0 8 . 0 0 7 . 8 0E U R / S E K 9 . 6 3 9 . 6 3 9 . 6 0 9 . 6 3 9 . 4 0 9 . 6 5 9 . 0 0A $ / $ 0 . 9 0 0 . 8 9 0 . 9 5 0 . 8 8 0 . 9 5 0 . 8 6 0 . 9 0N Z $ / $ 0 . 7 2 0 . 7 2 0 . 7 4 0 . 7 1 0 . 7 4 0 . 7 0 0 . 7 0$ / C $ 1 . 0 2 1 . 0 2 0 . 9 8 1 . 0 3 0 . 9 8 1 . 0 3 1 . 0 3$ / C N Y 6 . 8 3 6 . 7 7 6 . 7 4 6 . 7 3 6 . 6 6 6 . 6 7 6 . 4 9* C l o s e 1 0 M a y 1 0Source: GS Global ECS Research渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 28DisclaimerI, Jim ONeill hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firms business or client relationships.G l o b a l p r o d u c t ； d i s t r i b u t i n g e n t i t i e s T h e G l o b a l I n v e s t m e n t R e s e a r c h D i v i s i o n of G o l d m a n S a c h s p r o d u c e s and d i s t r i b u t e s r e s e a r c h p r o d u c t s f o r c l i e n t s of G o l d m a n S a c h s , and p u r s u a n t to c e r t a i n c o n t r a c t u a l a r r a n g e m e n t s , on a g l o b a l b a s i s . A n a l y s t s b a s e d inG o l d m a n S a c h s o f f i c e s a r o u n d t h e w o r l d p r o d u c e e q u i t y r e s e a r c h on i n d u s t r i e s and c o m p a n i e s , and r e s e a r c h on m a c r o e c o n o m i c s , c u r r e n c i e s , c o m m o d i t i e s and p o r t f o l i o s t r a t e g y . T h i s r e s e a r c h is d i s s e m i n a t e d in A u s t r a l i aby G o l d m a n S a c h s J B W e r e P t y L t d ( A B N 21 006 797 897) on b e h a l f of G o l d m a n S a c h s ； in C a n a d a by G o l d m a n S a c h s & C o . r e g a r d i n g C a n a d i a n e q u i t i e s and by G o l d m a n S a c h s & C o . ( a l l o t h e r r e s e a r c h ) ； in H o n g K o n g byG o l d m a n S a c h s ( A s i a ) L . L . C . ； in I n d i a by G o l d m a n S a c h s ( I n d i a ) S e c u r i t i e s P r i v a t e L t d . ； in J a p a n by G o l d m a n S a c h s J a p a n C o . , L t d . ； in t h e R e p u b l i c of K o r e a by G o l d m a n S a c h s ( A s i a ) L . L . C . , S e o u l B r a n c h ； in N e w Z e a l a n d byG o l d m a n S a c h s J B W e r e ( N Z ) L i m i t e d on b e h a l f of G o l d m a n S a c h s ； in R u s s i a by OOO G o l d m a n S a c h s ； in S i n g a p o r e by G o l d m a n S a c h s ( S i n g a p o r e ) P t e . ( C o m p a n y N u m b e r : 198602165W ) ； and in t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s of A m e r i c ab y G o l d m a n S a c h s & C o . G o l d m a n S a c h s I n t e r n a t i o n a l h a s a p p r o v e d t h i s r e s e a r c h i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h i t s d i s t r i b u t i o n i n t h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m a n d E u r o p e a n U n i o n .E u r o p e a n U n i o n : G o l d m a n S a c h s I n t e r n a t i o n a l , a u t h o r i s e d and r e g u l a t e d by t h e F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e s A u t h o r i t y , has a p p r o v e d t h i s r e s e a r c h in c o n n e c t i o n w i t h i t s d i s t r i b u t i o n in t h e E u r o p e a n U n i o n and U n i t e d K i n g d o m ；G o l d m a n , S a c h s & C o . o H G , r e g u l a t e d b y t h e B u n d e s a n s t a l t f r F i n a n z d i e n s t l e i s t u n g s a u f s i c h t , m a y a l s o d i s t r i b u t e r e s e a r c h i n G e r m a n y . G e n e r a l d i s c l o s u r e sT h i s r e s e a r c h is f o r our c l i e n t s o n l y . O t h e r t h a n d i s c l o s u r e s r e l a t i n g to G o l d m a n S a c h s , t h i s r e s e a r c h is b a s e d on c u r r e n t p u b l i c i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t we c o n s i d e r r e l i a b l e , but we do not r e p r e s e n t it is a c c u r a t e or c o m p l e t e , and its h o u l d not be r e l i e d on as s u c h . We s e e k to u p d a t e our r e s e a r c h as a p p r o p r i a t e , but v a r i o u s r e g u l a t i o n s m a y p r e v e n t us f r o m d o i n g s o . O t h e r t h a n c e r t a i n i n d u s t r y r e p o r t s p u b l i s h e d on a p e r i o d i c b a s i s , t h e l a r g e m a j o r i t y ofr e p o r t s a r e p u b l i s h e d a t i r r e g u l a r i n t e r v a l s a s a p p r o p r i a t e i n t h e a n a l y s t s j u d g m e n t . G o l d m a n S a c h s c o n d u c t s a g l o b a l f u l l - s e r v i c e , i n t e g r a t e d i n v e s t m e n t b a n k i n g , i n v e s t m e n t m a n a g e m e n t , and b r o k e r a g e b u s i n e s s . We h a v e i n v e s t m e n t b a n k i n g and o t h e r b u s i n e s s r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h a s u b s t a n t i a l p e r c e n t a g e oft h e c o m p a n i e s c o v e r e d b y o u r G l o b a l I n v e s t m e n t R e s e a r c h D i v i s i o n . S I P C : G o l d m a n , S a c h s & C o . , t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s b r o k e r d e a l e r , i s a m e m b e r o f S I P C ( h t t p : / / w w w . s i p c . o r g ) . O u r s a l e s p e o p l e , t r a d e r s , and o t h e r p r o f e s s i o n a l s m a y p r o v i d e o r a l or w r i t t e n m a r k e t c o m m e n t a r y or t r a d i n g s t r a t e g i e s to our c l i e n t s and our p r o p r i e t a r y t r a d i n g d e s k s t h a t r e f l e c t o p i n i o n s t h a t a r e c o n t r a r y to t h e o p i n i o n se x p r e s s e d in t h i s r e s e a r c h . O u r a s s e t m a n a g e m e n t a r e a , our p r o p r i e t a r y t r a d i n g d e s k s and i n v e s t i n g b u s i n e s s e s m a y m a k e i n v e s t m e n t d e c i s i o n s t h a t a r e i n c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s or v i e w s e x p r e s s e d in t h i sr e s e a r c h . We and our a f f i l i a t e s , o f f i c e r s , d i r e c t o r s , and e m p l o y e e s , e x c l u d i n g e q u i t y and c r e d i t a n a l y s t s , w i l l f r o m t i m e to t i m e h a v e l o n g or s h o r t p o s i t i o n s i n , a c t as p r i n c i p a l i n , and buy or s e l l , t h e s e c u r i t i e s or d e r i v a t i v e s , if a n y ,r e f e r r e d t o i n t h i s r e s e a r c h . T h i s r e s e a r c h is not an o f f e r to s e l l or t h e s o l i c i t a t i o n of an o f f e r to buy any s e c u r i t y in any j u r i s d i c t i o n w h e r e s u c h an o f f e r or s o l i c i t a t i o n w o u l d be i l l e g a l . It does not c o n s t i t u t e a p e r s o n a l r e c o m m e n d a t i o n or t a k e i n t o a c c o u n tt h e p a r t i c u l a r i n v e s t m e n t o b j e c t i v e s , f i n a n c i a l s i t u a t i o n s , or needs of i n d i v i d u a l c l i e n t s . C l i e n t s s h o u l d c o n s i d e r w h e t h e r any a d v i c e or r e c o m m e n d a t i o n in t h i s r e s e a r c h is s u i t a b l e f o r t h e i r p a r t i c u l a r c i r c u m s t a n c e s and, ifa p p r o p r i a t e , s e e k p r o f e s s i o n a l a d v i c e , i n c l u d i n g t a x a d v i c e . T h e p r i c e and v a l u e of i n v e s t m e n t s r e f e r r e d to in t h i s r e s e a r c h and t h e i n c o m e f r o m t h e m m a y f l u c t u a t e . P a s t p e r f o r m a n c e is not a g u i d e to f u t u r e p e r f o r m a n c e ,f u t u r e r e t u r n s a r e n o t g u a r a n t e e d , a n d a l o s s o f o r i g i n a l c a p i t a l m a y o c c u r . F l u c t u a t i o n s i n e x c h a n g e r a t e s c o u l d h a v e a d v e r s e e f f e c t s o n t h e v a l u e o r p r i c e o f , o r i n c o m e d e r i v e d f r o m , c e r t a i n i n v e s t m e n t s . C e r t a i n t r a n s a c t i o n s , i n c l u d i n g t h o s e i n v o l v i n g f u t u r e s , o p t i o n s , and o t h e r d e r i v a t i v e s , g i v e r i s e to s u b s t a n t i a l r i s k and a r e not s u i t a b l e f o r a l l i n v e s t o r s . I n v e s t o r s s h o u l d r e v i e w c u r r e n t o p t i o n s d i s c l o s u r e d o c u m e n t s w h i c h a r ea v a i l a b l e f r o m G o l d m a n S a c h s s a l e s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s or at h t t p : / / w w w . t h e o c c . c o m / p u b l i c a t i o n s / r i s k s / r i s k c h a p 1 . j s p . T r a n s a c t i o n s c o s t m a y be s i g n i f i c a n t in o p t i o n s t r a t e g i e s c a l l i n g f o r m u l t i p l e p u r c h a s e and s a l e s of o p t i o n ss u c h a s s p r e a d s . S u p p o r t i n g d o c u m e n t a t i o n w i l l b e s u p p l i e d u p o n r e q u e s t . A l l r e s e a r c h r e p o r t s a r e d i s s e m i n a t e d and a v a i l a b l e to a l l c l i e n t s s i m u l t a n e o u s l y t h r o u g h e l e c t r o n i c p u b l i c a t i o n to our i n t e r n a l c l i e n t w e b s i t e s . N o t a l l r e s e a r c h c o n t e n t is r e d i s t r i b u t e d to our c l i e n t s or a v a i l a b l e to t h i r d - p a r t ya g g r e g a t o r s , nor is G o l d m a n S a c h s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of our r e s e a r c h by t h i r d p a r t y a g g r e g a t o r s . F o r a l l r e s e a r c h a v a i l a b l e on a p a r t i c u l a r s t o c k , p l e a s e c o n t a c t y o u r s a l e s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e or go tow w w . 3 6 0 . g s . c o mD i s c l o s u r e i n f o r m a t i o n i s a l s o a v a i l a b l e a t h t t p : / / w w w . g s . c o m / r e s e a r c h / h e d g e . h t m l o r f r o m R e s e a r c h C o m p l i a n c e , 2 0 0 W e s t S t r e e t , N e w Y o r k , N Y 1 0 2 8 2 . N o p a r t o f t h i s m a t e r i a l m a y b e ( i ) c o p i e d , p h o t o c o p i e d o r d u p l i c a t e d i n a n y f o r m b y a n y m e a n s o r ( i i ) r e d i s t r i b u t e d w i t h o u t t h e p r i o r w r i t t e n c o n s e n t o f T h e G o l d m a n S a c h s G r o u p , I n c . C o p y r i g h t 2 0 1 0 , T h e G o l d m a n S a c h s G r o u p , I n c . A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d . 渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 29Infrastructure investment will be the engine again if Guoqing Song Special AdviserGaohua Securities May 2010渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 30Current Status of the Chinese Economy In the first 4 months, actual GDP reached the level of potential GDP. Sequential growth has decreased, Aprils annualized growth rate of IP was about 16%, corresponding to a 10% growth rate of GDP which is our estimate of the potential growth rate. Short-term CPI inflation trend is estimated to be about 3.0%. Monthly inflation rate fluctuated around this level. Aprils annualized rate was 4.3% because of temporary rise in some food prices. Both sequential IP growth rate and inflation rate decreased from last years peak level. In a year on year basis, IP growth rate has decreased and CPI inflation rate has been rising. These happened because of the base-year effect and has caused some unnecessary worry. Trade surplus continued to decrease, Money growth returned to normal, Almost everything is unusually well except house price and the new policies to control it.渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 31Demand Engines Many investors and some economists China now worry about investment demand and export demand. In short term, house construction and infrastructure investment as well as export can be thought of as the driving forces of aggregate demand. Consumption is relatively stable and other investments are driven by the three engines. After rapid growth of bank loans and fixed investment In the first half of 2009, the government began to worry about bad loans and has taken measures to control loans to local government sponsored investments. Since mid April, strict policies have been announced to control house demand. Now it is reported that there is almost a sudden stop in house market and land auction. And “bad news” come from the outside. For sake of import price, a weak world economy will be good if domestic demand is strong. 渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 32Actually Two and a Half EnginesIn 2010q1, Chinas import recorded a 66% yoy growth, driven by strong domestic demand esp. Investment demand. Chinas import has been a strong engine for the world demand esp. since last year and Chinas export demand is actually driven by its own import to some extent. In a If Chinas investment is going to be weak, so will be its import, and finally its export.However, Chinas demand reliance on export or trade surplus has decreased. 渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 33Share of Trade Balance in GDP Decreased 3/4渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 34Export Ratio Relatively Low渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 35The House ProblemHouse price rose at a rate higher than that of wage for years in some cities, the society and government can not tolerate. If there is a choice between relatively low house price and low GDP growth, the government has to balance the two sides. Three factors affecting house prices: Urbanization and expectation of future income growth Low real interest rate Farm land protection policy渐飞研究报告 - Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2010 36The Price Wedge The most important factor for house supply is the farm land protection policy. The central government sets a very limited quantity of land for urban development. Therefore, there is a big wedge between price of farm land and price of urban land. Local governments reservation price for land supply is farm land price plus some other costs. The reservation price accoun