RF PCB Marketplace软硬结合板市场分析.pdf

3 P A R T N E R S L L C PRISMARK REPORT NO 3264 MARKET AND OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS RIGID FLEX CIRCUITS 1 0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The printed circuit board PCB industry is competitive Price pressure is normally high and competition is always fierce Within the industry the conventional board segments have experienced severe erosion and the growth opportunity is slim In the next few years higher growth opportunities are likely to occur in three market segments They are flex substrate and microvia boards Within the flex market segment rigid flex circuit is likely to enjoy the highest potential because of the emerging opportunities in cell phones portable electronics and module substrates BREAKDOWN OF FPC MARKET BY TECHNOLOGY 2004 2005 Share Change Single Sided 3153 3423 52 5 8 6 Double Sided 1612 1727 26 5 7 1 Multilayer 831 925 14 2 11 3 Rigid Flex 344 446 6 8 29 6 Total 5940 6521 100 0 9 8 Rigid flex circuit is an old niche product and has served the military medical and portable consumer electronics for years Recently cell phones and other portable electronic products have renewed their interest in rigid flex circuits because of the reliability concern and the requirement of fine pitch component assembly The incorporation of build up technology in rigid flex circuit manufacturing has allowed this product to serve a much wider scope with better performance Consequently Prismark forecasts the rigid flex market to expand from 446M in 2005 to 1 161M in 2010 mostly driven by cell phones portables and module substrates RIGID FLEX MARKET AND FORECAST Cell Phones and PDAs Cameras and Camcorders Other Portables MP3 Games etc Military Aerospace Medical Others Modules and Components Total 2005 Market Value M 120 9 126 9 11 0 108 0 53 0 26 0 445 8 2010 Market Value M 615 6 151 2 60 6 128 0 64 0 96 6 1 116 1 CAAGR 38 5 3 6 40 8 3 5 3 8 30 0 20 1 2005 Finished Boated Area k m2 108 8 58 5 7 6 28 0 17 2 22 3 242 5 2010 Finished Board Area k m2 818 4 102 0 63 6 38 7 24 2 139 5 1 186 5 CAAGR 49 7 11 8 52 8 6 7 7 1 44 3 37 4 4 P A R T N E R S L L C PRISMARK REPORT NO 3264 2 0 BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE The printed circuit board PCB industry has experienced dramatic changes over the past five years Accelerated geographic migration coupled with overcapacity has led to fierce competition and steep price erosion This transition is not yet complete and most of the PCB industry is still in turmoil Taiwanese PCB companies currently supply more than 20 of the global PCB demand and have become the second largest production group in the world after Japanese companies Expanding operations in China now provide Taiwanese PCB companies with an opportunity to extend their growth The migration or relocation of PCB production to China however has the potential to create a void in the homeland and threatens the PCB industry s strength in Taiwan Faced with these challenges many Taiwanese PCB companies searching for ways to differentiate compete or even survive in such an environment are exploring new market opportunities and are now viewing rigid flex circuits a near term potential TPCA is an industry organization in Taiwan with a goal to serve all its members While the PCB business environment remains competitive and unclear TPCA would like to offer its members a deeper and more comprehensive understanding of potential opportunities in the PCB industry such as rigid flex circuits The primary objective of this study is to assess and evaluate the developing trends technical requirements potential applications and market opportunities of rigid flex circuits Within the scope the potential opportunities for Taiwanese companies will also be assessed The following areas were detailed researched and summarized in the report Leading and potential applications for rigid flex circuit boards The growth drivers of rigid flex circuits and an estimate of the potential demand in the next few years Market size assessment in dollars and area of rigid flex PWBs in 2004 2005 and a five year growth forecast Typical manufacturing flow processing of rigid flex boards Most common rigid flex board construction and types including layercount via hole size line space board thickness material choice etc Advantages and disadvantages of rigid flex as compared to multilayer flex and multilayer rigid boards Future development direction and technical requirements of rigid flex circuit boards for high growth or leading applications Current and potential customers for rigid flex circuit boards Current and potential leading suppliers of rigid flex PWBs Potential opportunities for Taiwanese PCB companies 5 P A R T N E R S L L C PRISMARK REPORT NO 3264 3 0 RIGID FLEX MARKET OVERVIEW 3 1 Flexible Printed Circuits and Rigid Flex Markets The flexible printed circuit FPC is a unique interconnect solution because of its flexibility and bendability Traditionally FPCs are used in notebook PCs hard disk drives optical pick ups and portable consumer electronics wherein the circuits undergo repetitive motions or are folded to fit in constrained space In addition flex circuits are also used in flat panel displays and semiconductor packaging because of their fine pitch and low profile advantages Starting from late 1990s the FPC industry experienced another wave of strong growth because of the expansion of cell phone and LCD markets For cell phone applications the switch from candy bar to clamshell designs and the adoption of high resolution color displays created substantial demand for advanced flex circuits such as multilayer hinge circuits and COFs The expansion of LCD applications on the other hand further enlarged the consumption of TAB and COF substrates Both cell phone and display industries have substantially lifted the scale of FPC production in the past few years and are likely to support its growth in the near future CHANGE AND FORECAST OF THE PCB INDUSTRY Value M 2000 2005 2000 2005 Change 2010 Forecast 2005 2010 CAAGR Commodity Boards 9 674 7 476 22 7 8 199 1 9 Multilayer Boards 22 217 16 747 24 6 20 755 4 4 Microvia Boards 2 074 4 916 137 0 7 337 8 3 Packaging Substrates 3 505 4 976 42 0 8 521 11 4 Flexible Circuits 3 450 6 521 89 0 9 609 8 1 Total 40 920 40 636 0 7 54 421 6 0 In 2005 the total FPC market reached 6 521M and accounted for 16 of the total PCB industry 40 6Bn If the value of flex packaging substrates 150M is included the total flex circuit market was 6 671M last year For the next five years the FPC market is expected to grow at 8 1 CAAGR compounded average annual growth rate and reach 9 6Bn 6 P A R T N E R S L L C PRISMARK REPORT NO 3264 FPC MARKET BREAKDOWN BY APPLICATION Clearly FPC demand is dominated by computer communication and display applications and supported by consumer electronics and others In computer sector the leading applications are HDD notebook PC and printers In the communication segment cell phones are the dominant application and many flex circuits such as hinge display camera module circuits can be easily found in each handheld cell phone The display market is split between large and small displays For large area LCD panels TAB and fine pitch COF are the preferred choices For small area displays coarse pitch COF and other FPC interconnects are used Similar to the rigid board industry FPC products can also be grouped by the structure of the circuits Single sided FPC is the most popular product and accounts for more than 50 of the market value Double sided FPCs represent more than one quarter of the industry Multilayered FPC and rigid flex circuits are more complicated products and account for 14 and 7 of the market respectively BREAKDOWN OF FPC MARKET BY TECHNOLOGY 2004 2005 Share Change Single Sided 3153 3423 52 5 8 6 Double Sided 1612 1727 26 5 7 1 Multilayer 831 925 14 2 11 3 Rigid Flex 344 446 6 8 29 6 Total 5940 6521 100 0 9 8 Within the industry the definition of a rigid flex circuit is vague and thus distinguishing between multilayer flex and rigid flex is sometimes imprecise Prismark defines rigid flex circuits as a circuit board made of both polyimide film and reinforced laminate as base materials with both rigid and flexible portions in its final integrated construction Rigid flex constructions may or may not include stiffeners plated through holes and blind buried via holes The rigid flex circuit market was US 344M in 2004 and quickly jumped to US 446M in 2005 with 29 6 year on year growth Because of earlier development and stronger 2005 Computer 1 816M 27 8 Communications 1 370M 21 0 Consumer Portables 913M 14 0 Auto 423M 6 5 Medical 250M 3 8 Military 213M 3 3 Display 1 536M 23 6 TOTAL 6 521M Kc56 1 96skc fpcapp 7 P A R T N E R S L L C PRISMARK REPORT NO 3264 local demands America and Japan still remain as the leading rigid flex production regions with about 56 share of total rigid flex production value Korean and Taiwanese PCB companies are new entrants in this market but are expected to achieve stronger growth in the next few years because of concentrated efforts to develop new products for mobile phone and consumer related applications The rigid flex circuit production breakdown for 2004 and 2005 by region is shown in the charts below 2004 RIGID FLEX MARKET BY REGION 2005 RIGID FLEX MARKET BY REGION Total Value 344M America 31 Europe 10 Japan 36 Korea 15 Taiwan 5 Others 3 kc56 196skc 4rfmkt Total Value 446M America 26 Europe 9 Taiwan 11 Korea 21 Japan 30 Others 3 8 P A R T N E R S L L C PRISMARK REPORT NO 3264 The rigid flex market is actually quite interesting Because of the historical development path and market demand each region shows a unique production and application focus Japan for example is strong in portable electronics while America is concentrated on military and aerospace applications Korea is clearly cell phone driven and Taiwan is looking for emerging opportunities RIGID FLEX CIRCUIT APPLICATION FOCUS BY REGION Region Major Application Focus America Military Aerospace Automotive Medical Europe Automotive Aerospace Medical Computer Japan Camcorders Mobile Phones Portable Devices Korea Mobile Phones MP3 Image Sensors Taiwan LCD Modules Image Sensors DCS Memory Modules US Rigid Flex Market Rigid flex circuit production in America is concentrated mainly on military aerospace medical and industrial applications A small portion of the production is used in commercial products such as portable electronics and automotive Rigid flex circuit production in America was US 115M in 2005 The leading rigid flex circuit suppliers are Tyco Teledyne Pioneer Circuit FCI Parlex and Sanmina The value of most rigid flex production of each company was low typically less than US 30M Medical devices and military aerospace applications are the two leading categories in terms of revenue generation Users of rigid flex circuits include GE Lockheed Martin Raytheon Northrop Grumman Boeing Honeywell BAE and JPL The market for rigid flex circuits in the US is stable and is expected to grow moderately in the future Japanese Rigid Flex Market Japanese rigid flex circuit suppliers continue to lead in consumer applications and portable electronics Rigid flex circuit production in Japan was around US 135M in 2005 The leading suppliers include Daisho CMK Fujikura Asahi Glass Meiko etc Optical applications such as image sensors digital still cameras and digital video cameras are the leading rigid flex markets in Japan Future demands of rigid flex circuits for portable games and cellular phones are expected to grow in the future Rigid flex customers in Japan include Sharp Nintendo Sony and Canon Korean Rigid Flex Market Potential usages of rigid flex circuits in cell phones camera modules and other portable electronics have encouraged Korean PCB shops to invest in rigid flex technology for the past three years In fact most of the rigid and flex PCB suppliers in Korea have either invested in or are developing rigid flex circuit production capabilities In the past two years rigid flex circuit demand has come mainly from optical components and cellular phone applications Rigid flex production has had impressive growth from 52M in 2004 to over 90M in 2005 9 P A R T N E R S L L C PRISMARK REPORT NO 3264 Korean PCB suppliers believe that rigid flex circuits can offer lower total cost to customers in the future However the processing difficulties continue to challenge most of the existing and potential rigid flex circuit suppliers SEMCO is the leading producer of rigid flex circuits in Korea The other leading suppliers are LG Electronics Daeduck Interflex and Isu Petasys Most of the rigid flex manufacturers have less than 20 000 m2 month capacity Leading rigid flex customers in Korea are Samsung Electronics Samsung SDI and LG Electronics Taiwan Rigid Flex Market Taiwanese PCB suppliers are aware of the potential opportunities for rigid flex circuits in cellular phones MP3 players camera modules and portable games Similar to Korea many PCB suppliers in Taiwan have also started to develop rigid flex technology and invest in rigid flex circuit production capacities Leading cellular phone HDI boards suppliers such as Compeq Unimicron Unitech and Wus in Taiwan are beginning low volume production of rigid flex circuits Other PCB suppliers like Gold Circuit Ya Shin Mut