萨尔瓦多国际经济学(第十版)英文课件ch20.ppt

InternationalEconomicsTenthEdition FlexibleversusFixedExchangeRates theEuropeanMonetarySystem andMacroeconomicPolicyCoordinationDominickSalvatoreJohnWiley Sons Inc Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc CHAPTERTWENTY 20 Inthischapter IntroductionTheCaseforFlexibleExchangeRatesTheCaseforFixedExchangeRatesOptimumCurrencyAreas theEuropeanMonetarySystem andtheEuropeanMonetaryUnionCurrencyBoardsArrangementsandDollarizationExchangeRateBands AdjustablePegs CrawlingPegs andManagedFloatingInternationalMacroeconomicPolicyCoordination Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc Introduction Advocatesofafixedexchangeratesystemargueforthecertaintyandstabilityoffixedrates whileadvocatesofaflexiblerateclaimmoreefficiencyincorrectingbalanceofpaymentsdisequilibria Thereisnoclear cutconclusionaboutwhetherfixedorflexibleexchangeratesaresuperior Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc TheCaseforFlexibleExchangeRates Aflexibleexchangeratesystemissaidtobemoreefficientthanafixedexchangeratesystembecause Itreliesonlyonchangingexchangerates notprices toadjustbalanceofpayments Itmakesadjustmentssmoothandcontinuousratherthanoccasionalandlarge Itclearlyidentifiesthenation sdegreeofcomparativeadvantageanddisadvantageinvariouscommodities Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc TheCaseforFlexibleExchangeRates Thepolicyadvantagesofaflexibleexchangeratesystem Itfreesmonetarypolicyfordomesticgoals Itenhancestheeffectivenessofmonetarypolicy Itallowseachnationtopursueitsowninflation unemploymenttrade off Itremovesthedangerthatthegovernmentwillusetheexchangeratetoreachgoalsbetterachievedbyotherpolicies Iteliminatesthecostofofficialinterventionsinforeignexchangemarkets Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc TheCaseforFixedExchangeRates Thecaseforfixedexchangeratesrestson Lessuncertaintythanflexiblerates Flexibleratesdoleadtoexcessivevolatilityinexchangerates Speculationlikelytobemorestabilizingthanflexiblerates Empiricalevidencesuggeststhataflexiblesystemdoesnotcompareunfavorablywithafixedratesystemwithrespecttowhetherspeculationisstabilizingordestabilizing Lessinflationarythanflexiblerates Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc FIGURE20 1ShiftsintheNation sDemandCurveforForeignExchangeandUncertainty Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc FIGURE20 2FluctuationsinExchangeRateintheAbsenceofSpeculationandwithStabilizingandDestabilizingSpeculation Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc OptimumCurrencyAreas theEuropeanMonetarySystem andtheEuropeanMonetaryUnion Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc Anoptimumcurrencyareaisagroupofnationswhosenationalcurrenciesaretiedbypermanentlyfixedexchangerates Conditionsthatmakeoptimumcurrencyareaoptimum GreatermobilityofresourcesamongmembernationsGreaterstructuralsimilaritiesGreaterwillingnessofthenationstocoordinatefiscal monetaryandotherpolicies OptimumCurrencyAreas theEuropeanMonetarySystem andtheEuropeanMonetaryUnion Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc Benefitsofoptimumcurrencyarea Eliminatesexchangerateuncertainty stimulatingspecializationinproductionandflowoftradeandinvestments Encouragesproducerstoviewentireareaassinglemarket benefittingfromgreatereconomiesofscale Providesgreaterpricestabilityaspriceshocksindifferentregionscanceleachotherout Savescostofofficialinterventionsinforeignexchangemarkets costofhedging andcostofcurrencyexchange OptimumCurrencyAreas theEuropeanMonetarySystem andtheEuropeanMonetaryUnion Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc Disadvantageofoptimumcurrencyarea Membernationscannotpursueindependentstabilizationandgrowthpoliciesfortheirparticularcircumstances OptimumCurrencyAreas theEuropeanMonetarySystem andtheEuropeanMonetaryUnion Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc TheEuropeanMonetarySystem EMS formedin1979 laidthefoundationsforlatermonetaryunionofthemembersoftheEuropeanCommunity Mainfeatures EstablishedtheEuropeanCurrencyUnit ECU weightedaverageofmembercurrencies Establishednarrowboundsforfluctuation 2 25 aroundparity establishingfixedbutadjustableexchangeratesystem EstablishedtheEuropeanMonetaryCooperationFundtoprovidebalanceofpaymentsassistancetomembers OptimumCurrencyAreas theEuropeanMonetarySystem andtheEuropeanMonetaryUnion Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc TheMaastrichtTreaty 1991 generatedtheagendabywhichfullmonetaryunionwouldbeachieved OptimumCurrencyAreas theEuropeanMonetarySystem andtheEuropeanMonetaryUnion Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc Stagestomonetaryunion Coordinationofmacroeconomicpoliciesandremovalofbarrierstocapitalmovementswithinnations CreationoftheEuropeanMonetaryInstituteasaforerunnertotheEuropeanCentralBank EstablishmentofasinglecurrencyandEuropeanCentralBankforforeignexchangemarketinterventionsandopenmarketoperations OptimumCurrencyAreas theEuropeanMonetarySystem andtheEuropeanMonetaryUnion Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc Conditionsforjoiningthemonetaryunion Inflationnohigherthan1 5percentgreaterthantheaverageofthethreememberswiththelowestratesofinflation Abudgetdeficitnogreaterthan3percentofGDPOverallgovernmentdebtnogreaterthan60percentofGDP OptimumCurrencyAreas theEuropeanMonetarySystem andtheEuropeanMonetaryUnion Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc Conditionsforjoiningthemonetaryunion Long terminterestratesnottoexceed2pointsmorethantheaverageinterestratesofthethreecountrieswiththelowestrates Theaverageexchangeratenotfallingbymorethan2 25percentoftheaverageoftheEMSforthetwoyearspriortojoining CurrencyBoardsArrangementsandDollarization Underacurrencyboardarrangement anationrigidlyfixestheexchangerateofitscurrencytoaforeigncurrency anditscentralbankceasestooperateassuch Acurrencyboardisthemostextremeformofexchangeratepegshortofadoptingacommoncurrency Usuallydonewhennationisindeepfinancialcrisis andtocombatinflation Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc CurrencyBoardsArrangementsandDollarization Advantages Reductioninexchangeraterisk Reduceddomesticinflationarypressure Disadvantages Completelossofdomesticmonetarycontrol Nolenderoflastresort Lossofabilitytoearnseignoragefromthecreationofmoney Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc CurrencyBoardsArrangementsandDollarization Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc Dollarizationistheadoptionofanothernation scurrencyaslegaltender Advantages Eliminationofdomesticcurrencyexchangeraterisk Externaldeterminationofinflationandinterestrates Externalmacroeconomicpolicydiscipline CurrencyBoardsArrangementsandDollarization Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc Dollarizationistheadoptionofanothernation scurrencyaslegaltender Disadvantages Costofreplacingdomesticcurrencywithanothercurrency Lossofindependenceofmonetaryandexchangeratepolicies facingsamemonetarypolicyascountrywhosecurrencywasadopted Lossofcentralbankaslenderoflastresort ExchangeRateBands AdjustablePegs CrawlingPegs andManagedFloating ExchangeRateBandsMostfixedexchangeratesystemsallowtheratetofluctuatewithinnarrowlydefinedbandsaboveandbelowparvalue Theactualexchangerateisdeterminedbysupplyanddemandwithinthebandoffluctuation andispreventedfrommovingoutsidebandbyofficialintervention Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc ExchangeRateBands AdjustablePegs CrawlingPegs andManagedFloating AdjustablePegsAnadjustablepegrequiresdefiningtheparvalueandthebandoffluctuation withthestipulationthatthecurrencywillbedevaluedtocorrectbalanceofpaymentsdeficit orrevaluedtocorrectsurpluses Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc ExchangeRateBands AdjustablePegs CrawlingPegs andManagedFloating CrawlingPegsUnderacrawlingpegsystem parvaluesarechangedbysmallpreannouncedamountsorpercentagesatfrequentandclearlyspecifiedintervalsuntiltheequilibriumexchangerateisreached Thisisdonetoavoidrelativelylargechangesinparvaluesandpossiblydestabilizingspeculation Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc ExchangeRateBands AdjustablePegs CrawlingPegs andManagedFloating ManagedFloatingUnderamanagedfloatingexchangeratesystem thenation smonetaryauthoritiesareresponsibleforinterveninginforeignexchangemarketstosmoothoutshort runfluctuationswithoutattemptingtoaffectlong runtrendinexchangerates Salvatore InternationalEconomics 10thEdition 2010JohnWiley Sons Inc ExchangeRateBands AdjustablePegs CrawlingPegs andManagedFloating ManagedFloatingApolicyofleaningagainstthewindrequiresthemonetaryauthorityto Supply fromreserves aportionofshort runexcessdemandforforeignexchange moderatingtendencyofcurrencytodepreciate Absorb addtoreserves aportionofanyshort runexcesssupply moderatingtende