飞轮电池生产计划的制定.课程设计.doc

飞轮电池生产计划的制定目录1. 市场需求预测 2. 实际产品的生产工艺路线分析3. 生产方式的经济分析和比较4. 制定综合生产计划5. 生产能力的粗平衡6. 制定主生产计划7. 制定MRP,CRP8. 生产能力的精平衡9. 零件工序卡编制10. 产品装配工序卡编制1 . 市场需求预测（Market forecast）Historical Record (Aggregate Demand)Month1Month2Month3Month4Year19182421Year210202723Year311222926Year4由上表所给的数据作出判断可知市场需求与时间季节因素有关， * SEASONALIZED TIME SERIES REGRESSION FORECASTING *-PROBLEM NAME: Untitled- FORECAST Sales - ABSOLUTE YEAR SEASON ACTUAL REGRESSION SEASONALIZED ERROR 1 1 9.000 17.533 8.766 0.234 1 2 18.000 17.982 17.982 0.018 1 3 24.000 18.430 24.573 0.573 1 4 21.000 18.879 22.025 1.025 2 1 10.000 19.327 9.664 0.336 2 2 20.000 19.776 19.776 0.224 2 3 27.000 20.224 26.966 0.034 2 4 23.000 20.673 24.118 1.118 3 1 11.000 21.121 10.561 0.439 3 2 22.000 21.570 21.570 0.430 3 3 29.000 22.018 29.358 0.358 3 4 26.000 22.467 26.212 0.212- Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 80%) YEAR SEASON FORECAST LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND 4 1 11.458 11.043 11.873REGRESSION EQUATION: Y = a + bX WHERE: Y = Sales X = TIME PERIOD a = 17.0844 b = 0.4486FORECAST = Y * SEASONAL INDEX (i)R = 0.942R-SQUARE = 0.8872MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 12 PERIODS = 0.417MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.283MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = -0.131STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 0.605SEASONAL INDEX (1) = 0.500SEASONAL INDEX (2) = 1.000SEASONAL INDEX (3) = 1.333SEASONAL INDEX (4) = 1.167预测结果如下：Month1234FORECAST years4122431292 . 实际产品的生产工艺路线分析(Product Process Analysis) 零件代号零件名称零件材料零件工艺过程lead timeMLF-11底板Q235-A锻造，车削，钻孔、扩孔1MLF09-02磁环电工纯铁模锻，车削，铣削 1MLF-07-05电磁铁内侧夹紧发兰铝合金铸造,车削，精铣，钻孔，扩孔，精车2MLF-12电器定位板铝合金铸造,车削，钻孔，扩孔，1MLF-07-03电磁铁外侧夹紧发兰铝合金铸造,车削，精铣，钻孔，扩孔，精车2MLF-09-01盘片45铸造,车削，铣削，钻孔，扩孔2MLF-07-06电磁铁夹紧装置铝合金铸造 ,铣削, 钻孔，扩孔1MLF-07-04电磁铁铁心DW315-50锻造1MLF-03外壳Q235-A锻造，车削，钻孔、扩孔1MLF-05外转子电机套筒Q235-A锻造，焊接，车削，钻孔、扩孔2MLF-09-03压环45铸造,车削，铣削，钻孔，扩孔23. 生产方式的经济分析与比较(Alternative Plans Comparison)Machine capacity=12325/425=29(assemble/month)Assemble capacity=4900/175=28(assemble/month)所以每月最多生产28台。平均每月的需求为：Q=（12+24+31+28）/4=23.75约为24个按均衡式生产，每月生产24个：First，compute for both plans the number workers hired，the number of workers laid off，and the average inventory during the year：1234567Aggregate planMonthAggregate demandPlanned outputsWorkers requiredWorkers hiredWorkers laid offLevel capacity with inventory1122472018224247200331247200429247200Matching demand11212360542242472360331318412042929840089101112Inventory adding or subtraction Beginning inventoryEnding inventoryAverage inventory per monthAverage inventory per year1210221617.250222222(7)221518.5(5)151012.500000000000000000Next，compute the annual costs for both plans： 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Aggregate planTotal annual number of workers hiredTotal annual number of workers laid offAverage annual inventoryAnnual hiring and layoff costAnnual inventory carrying costTotal annual subtraction costTotal annual incremental operating costLevel capacity01817.251080545106531Matching demand4854037200（3+1）*180010920备注：（4）=（1）*10+（2）*60；（5）=（3）*4*79：（7）=（4）+（5）+（6）在matching demand生产计划中第三月的需求量超过了本厂的最大生产能力，如若要满足要求需要采用外协或者加班的方式解决。如果采用外协第三月份有31-28=3台需要外协，第四月份有。总的Cost=（3+1)*1800=5400再考虑到工人工资， 总的费用如下：Cost of level capacity=6531+72*4*2*200=121731Cost of matching demand=10920+(36+72+84+84)*2*200=121320相差的费用Cost of matching demand- Cost of level capacity =121320-121731=-411。 Matching demand比Level capacity的花费更少。如果采用加班加班：加班时间600*4=2400，可加班最多时间为25*8*20%*84=3360，加班时间允许 每台成本是600*2.5=1500， 外协：每台是1800因为对于matching demand 中第三月缺3台，第四月缺1台，所以两者共相差（1800-1500）*4=1200综上所述：采用加班方案的费用最少为120120美元，其次是均衡式生产的费用为121731美元，两者相差1611美元，相差不大。1. 从预测的数据来看，产品的市场前景是比较好的，环境是比较稳定的。2. 市场匹配的生方式使得工厂处于不稳定的状态，总是需要招聘或辞退工人，而且需要加班和外协，不仅使生产变得复杂化，而且公司的生产能力并没用充分利用，同时可能导致工人的工作热情不高，由于新工人经验不足，都会给产品的质量带来一定的负面影响。3. 机器的使用状态也是不稳定的，常需要停用一些机器，这样对机器的工作效率也有一定的影响，而均衡式的生产方式恰能弥补这一点，对公司的稳定发展更有益处。 故选择均衡式的生产方式4. 制定综合生产计划(Aggregate Planning)按市场均衡方式生产1234567Aggregate planMonthAggregate demandPlanned outputsWorkers requiredWorkers hiredWorkers laid offLevel capacity with inventory11224720182242472003312472004292472005. 生产能力粗平衡(Rough-Cut Capacity Planning)Month final assembly hours1234Production24242424Final assembly hours4200420042004200 Assemble capacity(hours4900490049004900Final machine hours10200102001020010200Machine capacity(hours12325123251232512325从上表可以看出Final assembly hoursAssemble capacity(hours)，Final machine hoursMachine capacity(hours)说明生产能力满足要求，不需要加班或者外协。6制定主生产计划(Master Production Schedule)Level Capacity： Master Production ScheduleMonth 1Month 2Month 3Month 41234123412341234Total demand12243129Beginning inventory10222214Required production6666666666666666Ending inventory2222149 7制定MRP,CRP(Material Requirement Planning,Capacity Requirement Planning) 7.1 MRP制定各个零件选择用Lot For Lot的生产方式，用软件POM计算可得： * MATERIALS REQUIREMENTS PLANNING (MRP) *=PROBLEM NAME: Untitled=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated SizeMLF 0 0 10 8 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size03 1 1 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 10 6 6 6 6 6 6 6* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 0* RUSH ORDER *-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size05 1 2 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 16 6 6 6 6 6 6 6* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 0 0* RUSH ORDER *-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size0700 1 0 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Receipts 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Releases 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Receipts 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Releases 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size0703 2 2 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Receipts 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Releases 48 18 18 18 18 18 18 18* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Receipts 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Releases 18 18 18 18 18 18 0 0* RUSH ORDER *-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size0704 2 1 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Receipts 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Releases 30 18