2013美国数模竞赛题目翻译(主要是C题翻译).doc

ICMPROBLEMPROBLEM C:NetworkModeling of Earths HealthClickthe title below to download a PDF of the 2013 ICM Problem.Your ICM submission should consist of a 1page Summary Sheet and your solution cannot exceed 20 pages for a maximum of 21pages.NetworkModeling of Earths Health2013 ICM ProblemNetwork Modeling of EarthsHealthBackground:Society is interested in developing and using models to forecast the biologicaland environmental health conditions of our planet. Many scientific studies haveconcluded that there is growing stress on Earths environmental and biological systems,but there are very few global models to test those claims. The UN-backedMillenniumEcosystem Assessment Synthesis Reportfound that nearly two-thirds of Earthslife-supporting ecosystems including clean water, pure air, and stable climate are being degraded by unsustainable use.Humans are blamed for much of this damage. Soaring demands for food, freshwater, fuel, and timber have contributed to dramatic environmental changes;from deforestation to air, land, and water pollution. Despite the considerableresearch being conducted on local habitats and regional factors, current modelsdo not adequately inform decision makers how their provincial polices mayimpact the overall health of the planet. Many models ignore complex global factorsand are unable to determine the long-range impacts of potential policies. Whilescientists realize that the complex relationships and cross-effects in myriad environmentaland biological systems impact Earths biosphere, current models often ignorethese relationships or limit the systems connections. The system complexities manifestin multiple interactions, feedback loops, emergent behaviors, and impending statechanges or tipping points. The recentNaturearticle written by 22internationally known scientists entitled Approaching a state shift inEarths biosphere outlines many of the issues associated with the needfor scientific models and the importance of predicting potential state changesof the planetary health systems. The article provides two specific quantitativemodeling challenges in their call for better predictive models:背景：建立并使用模型去预测我们星球的生态环境条件是现在社会最感兴趣的话题。许多科学研究表明，地球的生态环境面临着越来越大的压力。但是也很少有全球模型来验证那些推论。联合国年生态系统评估的综合报告发现,近三分之二的地球维持生命的生态系统-包括纯净水,纯净的空气,和适宜的气候正在退化,被不可持续的使用。这些都归咎于人类对生态环境的破坏。大量对食物、水、燃料和木材的需求导致戏剧性的环境变化,体现在森林砍伐,空气,土地和水的污染。由于生物的栖息地和地区因素的限制，尽管在当地进行大量的研究,但当前的模型没有充分告知决策者在他们的管辖区如何会影响整个地球的健康。许多模型忽略复杂的全球因素和无法确定潜在的政策对长远的影响。虽然科学家意识到复杂的关系和交叉效应在无数环境和生物系统的影响地球的生物圈,目前的型模型常常忽略这些关系或限制系统的连接。系统的复杂性体现在多个交互,反馈循环,紧急行为,和即将到来的状态变化或临界点。最近，22个国际知名科学家写的文章自然，题为“走进一个状态地球生物圈的转变”概括了许多相关的问题与需要科学模型和预测潜在的状态改变的重要性的行星卫生系统。他们的文章中提供了两种具体的定量条件来呼吁更好的预测模型:1) To improve bio-forecasting throughglobal models that embrace the complexity of Earths interrelated systems andinclude the effects of local conditions on the global system and vice versa.1）为了提高生物预测，通过全球性的模型，考虑地球上的相互关联的系统的复杂性，包括当地条件的影响，对全球系统，反之亦然。2) To identify factors that couldproduce unhealthy global state-shifts and to show how to use effectiveecosystem management to prevent or limit these impending state changes.2）要确定可能会产生不健康的全局状态变化的因素，并显示如何使用有效的生态系统管理，以防止或限制这些即将发生的状态变化。The resulting research question is whetherwe can build global models using local or regional components of the Earthshealth that predict potential state changes and help decision makers designeffective policies based on their potential impact on Earths health. Althoughmany warning signs are appearing, no one knows if Planet Earth is truly nearinga global tipping point or if such an extreme state is inevitable.研究的问题是，我们是否可以建立全球性的模型，利用当地或地区的地球的健康，预测潜在的影响地球健康问题，帮助决策者设计出有效的政策。虽然许多警告标志出现，没有人知道，是否地球是真正的接近一个全球性的临界点或者是否这种极端的状态是不可避免的TheNaturearticle and manyothers point out that there are several important elements at work in theEarths ecosystem (e.g., local factors, global impacts, multi-dimensional factorsand relationships, varying time and spatial scales).这篇自然的文章和其他许多人指出，有几个重要的元素在影响地球生态系统中起作用（例如，本地因素的影响，全球性的影响，多维度的因素和关系，不同的时间和空间）There are also many other factors thatcan be included in a predictive model human population, resource and habitat stress, habitat transformation,energy consumption, climate change, land use patterns, pollution, atmosphericchemistry, ocean chemistry, bio diversity, and political patterns such associal unrest and economic instability. Paleontologists have studied andmodeled ecosystem behavior and response during previous cataclysmic stateshifts and thus historic-based qualitative and quantitative information canprovide background for future predictive models. However, it should be notedthat human effects have increased significantly in our current biospheresituation.也有许多其他因素的预测模型人口，资源和栖息地的压力，栖息地改造，能源消耗，气候变化，土地利用方式，污染，大气化学，海洋化学，生物多样性，和政治模式（如社会动荡和经济不稳定）。古生物学家的研究和对未来的预测模型中可以模拟生态系统的行为和反应在之前的灾难性的状态变化中，因此，基于历史的定性和定量的信息可以提供背景。然而，应该指出的是，人类的影响已在我们目前生物圈情况显著增加。Requirements:You are members of the InternationalCoalition of Modelers (ICM) which will soon be hosting a workshop entitledNetworks and Health of Planet Earth and your research leader hasasked you to perform modeling and analysis in advance of the workshop.你是（ICM）的会员，即将举办了一个题为“网络和地球的健康”的研讨会，研究的领导者要求你提前进行建模和分析。He requires your team to do thefollowing:他要求你的团队做到以下几点：Requirement 1:Build a dynamic global network model of some aspect of Earths health (youdevelop the measure) by identifying local elements of this condition (networknodes) and appropriately connecting them (network links) to track relationship andattribute effects. Since the dynamic nature of these effects is important, thisnetwork model must include a dynamic time element that allows the model topredict future states of this health measure.为某些方面的地球的健康（发展的措施）建立一个动态的全球网络模型，基于这种情况下的本地因素（网络节点）和适当连接（网络链接）跟踪关系和因素效果。由于这些影响的动态特性是很重要的，这种网络模型必须包括一个动态的元素，允许模型来预测这种健康的措施的未来状态。For example, your nodes could benations, continents, oceans, habitats, or any combination of these or otherelements which together constitute a global model. Your links could representnodal or environmental influences, or the flow or propagation of physicalelements (such as pollution) over time.Your health measure could be anyelement of Earths condition to include demographic, biological, environmental,social, political, physical, and/or chemical conditions. Be sure to define allthe elements of your model and explain the scientific bases for your modelingdecisions about network measures, nodal entities, and link properties.例如，节点可以是国家，大陆，海洋，栖息地，或这些的任意组合或其他元素，它们共同构成了全球性的模型。您的链接可以代表节点或环境的影响，或物理元素（如污染），随着时间的推移的流量或传播。你的健康措施可能是地球上的条件，包括人口，生物，环境，社会，政治，物理和/或化学条件的任何元素。要确保网络的措施，节点实体和链路属性，你的模型中定义的所有元素，并解释您的建模决策的科学依据。Determine a methodology to set anyparameters and explain how you could test your model if sufficient data wereavailable. What kinds of data could be used to validate or verify the efficacyof your model? (Note: If you do not have the necessary data to determineparameters or perform verification, do not throw out the model. Your supervisorrealizes that, at this stage, good creative ideas and theories are as importantas verified data-based models.) Make sure you include the human element in yourmodel and explain where human behavior and government policies could affect theresults of your model.确定一种方法来设置任何参数，并解释如果有足够的数据你如何可以测试你的模型，什么样的数据可以用来验证或证明你的模型的有效性？(注意：如果你不具备必要的数据，以确定参数或进行验证，不抛出你的模型。因为你的上司知道，在这个阶段，好的创意理论和经核实的数据为基础的模型是统一重要的。) 确保包括人的因素在模型中，解释人类的行为和政府政策可能会影响你的模型的结果。Requirement 2:Run your model to see how it predicts future Earth health. You may need toestimate parameters that you would normally determine from data. (Remember,this is just to test and understand the elements of your model, not to use it forprediction or decision making.) What kinds of factors will your model produce?运行你的模型看看它是如何预测未来的地球的健康。您可能需要估计参数通过已经确定的数据。（请记住，这仅仅是测试和了解你的模型的因素，而不是用它来预测或决策）模型包含各种因素吗？Could it predict state change ortipping points in Earths condition? Could it provide warning about globalconsequences of changing local conditions? Could it inform decision makers onimportant policies? Do you take into account the human elements in yourmeasures and network properties?他可以就目前的地球条件预测状态的变化或临界点吗？它可以提供根据不断变化的当地条件给全球性后果警告信息吗？可以指导决策者做出重要的政策吗？你考虑到人的因素和网络性能吗？Requirement 3:One of the powerful elements of using network modeling is the ability toanalyze the network structure. Can network properties help identify criticalnodes or relationships in your model? If so, perform such analysis. Howsensitive is your model to missing links or changing relationships? Does yourmodel use feedback loops or take into account uncertainties? What are the datacollection issues? Does your model react to various government policies andcould it thus help inform planning?使用网络建模的强大的元素之一是能够分析网络结构。网络性能可以帮助确定关键节点或在模型中的关系？如果是的话，执行这样的分析。你模型的敏感度如何对于缺少连接或者不断变化的关系？你的模型是否有反馈回路，或需要考虑的不确定性？数据收集问题是什么？你的模型是否反应了政府的各项政策，并可能有助于政府规划？Requirement 4:Write a 20-page report (summary sheet does not count in the 20 pages) thatexplains your model and its potential. Be sure to detail the strengths and weaknessesof the model. Your supervisor will use your report as a major theme in the upcomingworkshop and, if it is appropriate and insightful to planetary health modeling,will ask you to present at the upcoming workshop. Good luck in your network