多源流理论视角下“单独二孩”政策解读.doc

一、问题的提出为了控制人口增长，实行计划生育政策及独生子女政策。随着时间的推移，人们的生育观念发生变化，由崇信多子多福、养儿防老到少生优生。另外，人口形势也随着发生了变化，如生育率低于更替水平、人口老龄化严重、劳动力供给不足等。因此，针对以上变化，及时调整完善计划生育政策已迫在眉睫。但也不能马上取消计划生育政策，需要平稳过渡，于是十八届三中全会就提出，“坚持计划生育的基本国策，启动实施一方是独生子女的夫妇可生育两孩的政策，逐步调整完善生育政策，促进人口长期均衡发展。”二、多源流理论介绍多源流理论最早由美国著名的公共政策学家约翰?W?金登建立，见于其议程、备选方案与公共政策一书中。金登认为：“一个项目被提上议程是由于在特定时刻汇合在一起的多种因素共同作用的结果，而并非它们中的一种或另一种因素单独作用的结果。”1多种因素主要是指问题源流、政策源流和政治源流。问题源流：主要是指问题是怎样提上议程的。在政府环境中存在的问题很多，为什么有些问题会被关注并提上议程，而有些问题并不能获得关注，答案在于问题的界定，问题的界定主要通过指标（如病床利用率、婴儿死亡率）、焦点事件（如灾害、危机）和反馈信息等方式，同时问题的界定还受人们价值观、对比与分类的影响。2政策源流：主要是指对议程建立与变更产生影响的政策建议过程。它一般由专业共同体（包括研究人员、国会的办事人员、学者、利益集团的分析人员等），他们通过讲坛、大众传媒、研究报告、论文等形式引起同事、专家、公众的注意并使其思想保持活力，为其政策建议能被采纳铺好路，但在同一时期会有多种政策建议四处漂浮，它们会相互碰撞，彼此结合，有些得以幸存，有些消失。政治源流：主要是指对议程建立与变更产生影响的政治过程。它主要包括诸如国民情绪的变化、选举结果、政府的变更、意识形态、政党在国会中公布情况的变化以及利益集团实力对比等因素。这三条溪流各自都有自己的运行轨迹，它们的发生、发展和运作都不依赖于其他的源流，当它们在关键的时候才会汇集在一起，这时“政策之窗”就打开了，约翰?金登特别指出，“政策之窗”并不经常打开，且只敞开很短暂的时间。如果参与者不能利用或者没有利用这些机会的话，那么就必须等待时机，直到下一次机会的降临。3三、多源流理论视角下的“单独二孩”政策分析1、问题源流问题源流主要通过指标、焦点事件、反馈信息等反映出来。（1）指标：从第六次全国人口普查数据来看，我国性别比例严重失调、老龄化现象严重。从此次普查数据来看，出生人口的性别比是100：118.06，明显高于联合国公布的数据即出生性别比的正常值域是在102-107之间，我国60岁及以上人口占到了总人口的13.26%，其中65岁以上人口占到了总人口的8.87%，而按照联合国公布的数据，如果60岁及以上人口达到总人口的10%或者65岁及以上人口达到总人口的7%以上，说明该国或地区已是人口老龄化国家。同时，人口增长处于低生育水平阶段、新增劳动力数量减少。同上一次普查相比，年平均增长分别下降0.5%、6.29%。4另外，失独家庭日趋严重。有学者估计中国失独家庭已超过100万，并且每年数目会不断递增。（2）焦点事件：20122013年以来所发生的事件如200亿超生罚款去向成谜、陕西安康怀孕7月妇女遭强制引产事件、一个计生委主任的失独之痛的报道、北漂为办准生证跑断腿事件、郑州“房妹”父母举报违反计划生育事件、国家计生委发表将长期坚持计划生育政策的言论事件等。（3）反馈信息：目前，对计划生育实施效果的反馈主要建立在一些相关事件及国民报怨上，如前面所提到的通过人口普查所反映的我国低生育率、新增劳动力减少、老龄化严重、失独家庭的现状等、焦点事件以及长期以来民众对计划生育政策的抱怨。2、政策源流在我国，“单独二孩”政策共同体主要来自专家、学者，如易富贤、何亚福、田雪源、翟振武等，他们通过论文、著作、提议、采访等各种方式进行“软化”活动，如易富贤在其大国空巢走入歧途的中国计划生育一书中提出“不停止计划生育更待何时？”，何亚福在其生育权是公民的基本权利一文中提出“生育权是属于公民的”，田雪源建议“夫妇一方为独生子女者，允许生育两个孩子”，当时占主流意见的是由翟振武教授所带领的团队制定的分省份放开的“三步走方案”。同时，政府相关部门也一直在关注，如2004年国家开展投入巨大、影响很大的人口发展战略研究，国家人口计生委多次陆续委托科研院所对全国的生育状况进行调查。全国人大代表、国家卫计委科研所所长马旭称，1980年中央给全体党员的公开信中就有这样的表述：“未来若干年内，人口形势发生变化，我们就会调整政策”。3、政治源流国民情绪：金登提出国民情绪是指他们具有一些共同的观念，即都认为在一个国家里有大批的民众正沿着某些共同的路线思考，这种国民情绪以明显的方式经常发生变化，而且国民情绪的这些变化对政策议程和政策具有重要的影响。生育权是一个涉及到公民基本权利的问题。随着人们权利意识不断加强，长期以来靠强制手段实行计划生育政策已引起了学界、人大代表、公众的质疑和抵触，当这种国民情绪发展到一定程度时，就会引起政府对此政策关注。执政党理念转变：如十六届四中全会提出的建设和谐社会、十七大提出了以人为本的科学发展观、十八大提出的人权要得到切实保障和尊重等。执政党的这些理念转变，必定要求政策的制定与推行要重视人权，听取群众的意见。同时，放开“单独二孩”政策，彰显新一届领导集体顺应民心、尊重人权的执政理念，密切联系群众，改善执政党与人民的关系。4、“政策之窗” 打开多年来，有关放开二胎的呼声中，通过一系列的政策制度准备和对试点运行状况经验和教训的总结，“单独二孩”政策的“政策之窗”打开。十八届三中全会的召开为问题源流、政策源流与政治源流三个源流的汇合提供了一个机会，将“单独二孩”政策提上议事日程。于是，中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定宣布了中国人口与生育政策的新一轮重大调整，即“坚持计划生育的基本国策，启动实施一方是独生子女的夫妇可生育两个孩子的政策，逐步调整完善生育政策，促进人口长期均衡发展。”First, the issue of the proposedIn order to control population growth, the implementation of family planning policy and the one-child policy. With the passage of time, peoples fertility concept changes from Chongxin to many sons, and fewer and better birth. In addition, the population situation has changed, such as the birth rate is lower than the replacement level, the population aging is serious, the labor supply is insufficient, etc. Therefore, in view of the above changes, timely adjust and improve the family planning policy is imminent. But not immediately cancel the family planning policy, need for a smooth transition, and the Third Plenary Session proposed, adhere to the basic state policy of family planning, to start the implementation of the party is the one-child couples can birth two child policy, gradually adjust and improve fertility policy, promote population balanced development of long-term.Two, multi-source flow theoryMulti source current theory is first established by the famous American public policy scientist John W, and it is found in the book agenda, alternative plan and public policy. Jin Deng said: an item on the agenda is the result of the combined effects of multiple factors at a particular moment, rather than the result of one or more of them. 1 a variety of factors mainly refers to the source of the problem, the source of policy and political origins.Source: the main problem is how to put on the agenda. Many problems exist in the governmental environment, why some problems will be concerned and put on the agenda, and some did not get attention, the answer lies in the definition, problem definition mainly through indicators (such as bed utilization rate, infant mortality) and focal events (such as disaster, crisis) and feedback information. At the same time, problem definition is also affected by peoples values, comparison and classification of the influence. 2Origin: mainly refers to the policy agenda establishment and changes affecting policy process. It generally by the professional community (including the clerk in the researchers, Congress, academics, interest groups analysis personnel, etc.), through their pulpit, mass media, research reports, the form caused by colleagues, experts, public attention and make the idea to maintain the vitality, for its policy advice can be adopted to pave the way, but at the same time will have many policy proposals floating around, they will collide with each other and with each other, some survived, some disappeared.Political origin: mainly refers to the political process and the influence of the change of agenda setting. It mainly includes the national mood changes, such as the election results, changes of government, ideology and Party announced changes and interest group strength contrast and other factors in the congress.These three streams each have their orbits, their occurrence, development and operation are not dependent on the origin of the other, when they are in the key time will bring together together, then policy window opened, John Kingdon pointed out, policy window is not always open, and only open a very short time. If the players cannot use or not use the chance, you have to wait for a chance to come until next time. 3Three, analysis of the multiple streams theory from the perspective of the two separate child policy1, the origin of problemThe question source mainly through the index, focus events, feedback information reflected.(1) index: from the sixth national census data, Chinas gender imbalance, aging phenomenon is serious. From the census data, birth population sex ratio is 100:118.06, was significantly higher than that of the data published by the United Nations - the birth sex ratio of the normal range is between 102-107. Population aged 60 years and above in China accounted for 13.26% of the total population, which the population over the age of 65 accounted for 8.87% of the total population, and according to the data released by the United Nations, if the population aged 60 and over to the total population of 10% or 65 and over population reached more than 7% of the total population, the country or the area is the countrys ageing population. At the same time, the number of population growth in the stage of low birth rate, reduce the labor force. Compared with the previous census, the average annual growth fell 0.5%, 6.29%. 4 in addition, the loss of single family is becoming more and more serious. Some scholars estimate China lost family alone has more than 1 million, and the annual number will continue to increase.(2) the focus event: 2012 - 2013 since the events such as 200 million fines whereabouts a mystery, Shaanxi Ankang pregnant woman July being forced abortion incident, the A Planning Commission Director lost only pain reports, drift to do quasi birth certificate runs leg event, Zhengzhou real girls parents report in violation of family planning events, the State Planning Commission: the l