汽油价格分析双语.doc

OIL PRICE OPENS WINDOW OF REFORM IN CHINA中国拟开征燃油税By Geoff Dyer in Beijing 2008-11-21China is taking the opportunity created by low oil prices to prepare a shake-up of its pricing system that could include a new fuel tax and fewer price controls, the governments top planning body said yesterday.The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said the government was studying a series of reforms to oil pricing that officials say are designed to stimulate more efficient use of energy and encourage greater use of smaller cars.Although the NDRC gave few details of the substance of the reform or the timing, the statement follows heavy speculation in the Chinese media in recent days about forthcoming policy changes and analysts said it indicates that the government must be close to making a final decision.“This shows the NDRC is going to issue the new policy soon,” said Qiu Xiaofeng, analyst from China Merchants Securities. “This is absolutely good news for Sinopec and PetroChina Chinas two oil refiners and it will also promote the sale of compact cars with low emissions.”China has been debating the introduction of a fuel tax for nearly a decade and the discussion has been particularly intense over the past three years, pitting environmental and energy security concerns against several powerful vested interests.Officials have also discussed for a number of years a move to more free-market oil prices rather than the system of government- dictated prices that have helped at times to damp inflation when oil prices were high but at the cost of imposing heavy losses on the countrys refiners.Under one version of the reform being discussed, the government would introduce the long-awaited tax on retail petrol and diesel but would soften the blow to consumers by cutting petrol prices. Petrol in China is about 50 per cent more than the retail price in the US. However, brokerage CLSA said it expected a 15 per cent price cut to be announced next week.中国最高规划部门昨日表示，中国正准备利用国际原油价格下跌带来的机会，对其成品油定价体系进行改革，可能包括实施新的燃油税和放松价格管制。中国国家发改委(NDRC)称，政府正研究一系列油价定价机制改革。官员称，此举的目的是刺激人们以更高效率利用能源，并鼓励人们更多使用小型汽车。尽管发改委没有给出有关具体改革内容或时间的细节，但声明发布之前几天，中国媒体纷纷对即将来临的政策改变进行了猜测。分析师表示，这表明，政府肯定已接近做出最后决定。中国招商证券(China Merchants Securities)分析师邱晓峰（音译）表示：“这表明，发改委将很快发布新政策。对中国两家炼油企业中石化(Sinopec)和中石油(PetroChina)来说，这是绝对利好的消息，同时这也将提高排放较低的小排量汽车的销售。”近10年来，中国一直在辩论实施燃油税，过去3年里的争论尤其激烈，环境和能源安全担忧与多个强大的既得利益集团之间各执一词。许多年来，官员们也在讨论实行更加市场化、而不是由政府主导的定价体系。政府定价固然在原油价格高企的时候