国际贸易全套ppt课件.ppt

InternationalTrade 1 主要参考书 1 国际贸易海闻上海人民出版社2 国际经济学保罗克鲁格曼中国人民大学 国际贸易部分 3 http highered mcgraw 2 Chapter1Introduction 1 1BriefHistoryofInternationalTrade1 2InternationalTradeFundamentals1 3IntroductiontoInternationalTradeTheories 3 1 1BriefHistoryofInternationalTrade 1 International Trade 2 BriefHistory3 Newdevelopmentininternationaltrade4 Internationaltradeandeconomygrowth 4 1 2InternationalTradeFundamentals Valueoftrade贸易额 贸易值 Vsquantumoftrade 贸易量 RatioofDependenceOnForeignTrade 贸易依存度 5 我国外贸依存度变化 6 balanceoftrade BT 贸易差额 Definition BT ex imafavorablebalanceoftrade excessofexport贸易顺差anunfavorablebalanceoftrade excessofimport deficit overimport贸易逆差Ishugetradesurplusgoodorbadforacountry 7 compositionoftrade贸易商品结构tradebyregion贸易地理结构visible Tangibletradeinvisible IntangibletradeGeneraltrade 总贸易Specialtrade 专门贸易TermsofTrade TOT 贸易条件 Px Pm 100 8 1 3IntroductiontoInternationalTradeTheories 1 FreeTradeVs TradeProtectionism2 BriefIntroductiontoTradeTheories 9 TRADETHEORIES EarlyTradeTheoriesTheClassicalTheoryofTrade1 AbsoluteAdvantageandtheSmithModel2 ComparativeAdvantageandtheRicardianModelNeoclassicalTradeTheory3 FactorEndowmentandtheBasicHeckscher OhlinModel4 ExtensionsandImplicationsoftheH OModel5 SpecificFactorModelModernTradeTheories6 ImperfectCompetitionandEconomiesofScale7 ProductCycle8 Demand sideTheories9 NewDevelopmentinInternationalEconomics 10 THEORETICALISSUES Whydocountriestrade GainfromtradeWhatarethebasesfortrade Pricedifferences Supplyside cost TechnologyFactorendowmentProductionscale Demandside IncomePreferenceWhataretheimpactsoftrade Onprice production consumption andwelfareWhatarethechangesintradepattern Explainingthedynamicchangesintradepattern 11 Mercantilism Timeperiod 1500 1750Mainideas Nation sWealth Country sholdingsofpreciousmetalsExportisagain gainpreciousmetals importisaloss losepreciousmetals Tradeisa Zero sumGame onecountrygainisalossofanothercountryPolicies Buildupthepowerofanation state strongarmy strongnavy andmerchantmarineMaintainapositivetradebalance export importPromoteexportandrestrictimport 12 DavisHume thePrice Specie FlowMechanism Givensufficienttime anautomatictradebalanceadjustmentwouldtakeplacebetweenatradesurpluscountryandatradedeficitcountrybymeansofthefollowingsteps 13 14 THESMITHMODEL BasicAssumptionsOneinput Labor L Twooutputs e g Wheat QW andCloth QC TwoCountries e g USandChinaDifferenttechnologies differentproductivityoflaborFullEmployment PerfectCompetition andConstantreturntoScale 15 BasisforTrade DifferenceinTechnologyProductivity Productioncost CommoditypriceMeasurementsofabsoluteadvantage 16 Anumericalexample 17 MeasurementsofAbsoluteAdvantage InTermsofProductivity Q L InTermsofProductionCost L Q Inthiscase ChinahasanabsoluteadvantageinproducingclothandtheUShasanabsoluteadvantageingrowingwheat 18 GainsfromTrade InAutarky Assumption FreeTrade Assumption 50 50 25 10 19 PatternofProduction Trade eachcountryshouldspecializeinandexporttheProductinwhichithasanabsoluteadvantageInthiscase ChinashouldbespecializedinproductionofclothandUSshouldproducewheat Chinashouldexportclothandimportwheat USshouldimportclothandexportwheat 20 Limitation Inthiscase theUShastheabsoluteadvantageinbothgoods itisverycommonforadevelopedcountrytohaveabsoluteadvantagesinmostsectors AccordingtotheSmiththeory therewillbenotrade 21 ComparativeAdvantage 22 THERICARDIANMODEL BasicAssumptionsThesameastheSmithModelBasisforTradeDifferencesinTechnologies inrelativeterm Relativeproductivity Relativeproductioncost Relativecommodityprice 23 MeasurementsofComparativeAdvantage 24 25 EffectsofTrade Generalequilibriumanalysis autarky self sufficient equilibrium tradeequilibrium 26 tradetriangle贸易三角 Welfare gainsfromallocation 配置所得 tradegainsfromexchange交换所得 tradegainsfromspecification分工所得 27 28 PatternofProductionandTrade eachcountryshouldspecializeinandexporttheProductinwhichithasacomparativeadvantage 29 SolutionforSmithModel sPuzzle InTermsofRelativeLaborProductivityofCloth QC QW China 100 50 QC QW U S 150 100 30 Exception 200 150 31 ComparativeAdvantagewithManyGoodsorManyCountries ManyCountriesandTwoGoods Settingupthemodel listrelativecostsbyorder 32 Derivingtherelativesupply Determiningtherelativeprice Determiningthecomparativeadvantages 33 ManyGoodsandTwoCountries Settingupthemodel listrelativeproductivitybyorder Derivingtherelativedemandforlabor Determiningtherelativewage Determiningthecomparativeadvantages 34 35 Heckscher Ohlintheory Intherealworld whiletradeispartlyexplainedbydifferencesinlaborproductivity italsoreflectsdifferencesincountries resources TheHeckscher Ohlintheory EmphasizesresourcedifferencesastheonlysourceoftradeShowsthatcomparativeadvantageisinfluencedby Relativefactorabundance referstocountries Relativefactorintensity referstogoods Isalsoreferredtoasthefactor proportionstheory 36 Heckscher OhlinTheoryofTrade Acountrywillexportproductsthatuserelativelyintensivelythoseproductionfactorsfoundrelativelyabundantlyinthecountry andimportproductsthatuserelativelyintensivelythoseproductionfactorsthatarerelativelyscarceinthecountry H Ocomparativeadvantageisactuallyatriplecomparison acrosscountriesacrossproductsacrossfactorsofproduction 37 生产要素禀赋 factorendowment 生产要素在一个地区中的天然供给状况 要素丰裕度 factorabundance 不同国家或地区几种要素拥有总量的相对比例 38 factorintensity要素密集度 生产某产品投入不同要素的相对密集程度 针对产品而言 则X为劳动密集型产品 Y为资本密集型产品 39 TheH OModel TheBasicH OModelGeneralEquilibriumAnalysisPartialEquilibriumAnalysisLeontief sParadox 里昂惕夫之谜 40 TheBasicH OModel BasicAssumptionsTwoinputs factors Labor L andCapital K Twooutputs Rice R andSteel S TwoCountries e g USandChinaDifferentproportionoffactorendowment K L US K L ChinaInvariablefactorEndowments PPCSameTechnologyUSisacapital abundantcountryandChinaisalabor abundantcountryFullEmployment PerfectCompetitionandConstantreturntoScale 41 BasisforTrade Differentrelativefactorendowments differentproportion differentrelativefactorprices differentrelativeproductioncosts differentrelativepricesofproductsComparativeadvantageinproducingexporttheproductthatusesitsabundantrecourseintensively lowerrelativecost 42 PatternofProductionandTrade Acountryshouldproducemoreandexporttheproductthatusesitsabundantrecourseintensively andimporttheproductthatusesitsscarcerecourseintensively Inthiscase USshouldexportsteelandChinashouldexportrice 43 GeneralEquilibriumAnalysis Determinationofthefreetraderelativeprices TermsofTrade TOT Effectsondomesticproduction consumption relativepriceofgoods 44 Gainfromtrade measuredbychangesinCIC socialwelfarelevel 45 PartialEquilibriumAnalysis Determinationofthefreetradeprice 46 Effectsondomesticproduction consumption andthepriceofgoods Welfarechangesinproducersandconsumers measuredbychangesinProducerSurplus PS 生产者剩余 andConsumerSurplus CS 消费者剩余 Gainfromtrade measuredbythenetnationalgain loss 47 ImportIndustry Steel SmallcountryvslargecountryPriceProductionconsumption 48 ExportIndustry Rice 49 TestfortheHOTheory Leontief sparadox WassilyW Leontief theinput outputanalysisExpecttoprove TheHOTheoryiscorrect Asweknow USAisthemostcapitalabundantcountryintheworldbyanycriterionandshouldexportcapital intensivecommoditieswhileimportlabor intensivecommodities Result Paradoxial 50 LeontieffoundthatU S exportswerelesscapital intensivethanU S imports eventhoughtheU S isthemostcapital abundantcountryintheworld 51 Leontief sSecondTest学者数据年份 Kx Lx Km Lm H O预测 1 Whitney 196818991 12Leontiev 195419470 77Leontinv 19561947 510 94 或不包括自然资源行业 1 14 Baldwin 19711958 620 79 或不包括自然资源行业 0 96 19721 05 或不包括自然资源行业 1 08 TradePatternsofOtherCountriesJAPANCANADAINDIA 52 ExplanationsfortheLP FactorIntensityReversal 生产要素密集型逆转 TradeBarriersSkillsandhumancapital 人力资本 Naturalresources 53 Chapter4Neo ClassicalTradeModel Extensions Applications 4 1Internationaltradeandreturnstofactors 生产要素收益 4 1 1EffectsofTradeonFactorPricesinEachCountryTheStolper Samuelson S S TheoremMagnificationEffect 放大效应 4 1 2EffectsofTradeonFactorPricesinBothCountriesTheFactorPriceEqualizationTheorem4 2Economygrowthandtrade 54 4 1 1EffectsofTradeonFactorPricesinEachCountry Short Run nofactorsaremobileamongsectors Returntofactors W P MPL R P MPkReturnstofactoraredeterminedbychangesinProductPriceNochangesinmarginalproductivityoffactorPriceofexportproduct bothfactorsintheexportsectorgainPriceofimport competingproduct bothfactorsintheimport competingloss 55 Long Run allfactorsareabletomoveamongsectors TheStolper Samuelson S S TheoremFreetraderaisesthereturntothefactorusedintensivelyintherising pricesector exportsector andlowersthereturntofactorusedintensivelyinthefalling price importcompetingsector MagnificationEffectChangesinreturnstofactorsaregreaterthanthechangesinproductprices 56 57 58 TheFactorPriceEqualizationTheorem UndertheassumptionsofH Omodel freetradewillequalizenotonlycommoditypricesbutalsofactorprices Alllaborswillearnthesamewagerateandallunitsofcapital orland willearnthesameprofit orrentalreturns inbothcountriesregardlessofthefactorsuppliesorthedemandpatternsinthetwocountries 59 InternationalFactorPriceEqualization Withtheshifttofreetrade Foreachfactor itsrateofreturnbecomesmoresimilarbetweencountries Underidealconditions itsrealrateofreturnisthesameindifferentcountries Example Labor 60 InternationalFactorPriceEqualization Withnotrade thewagerateishighinthelabor scarcecountry Thewagerateislowinthelabor abundantcountry Withfreetrade theimportoflabor intensiveproductspushesthewage ratedowninthelabor scarcecountry Theexportoflabor intensiveproductspullsthewagerateupinthelabor abundantcountry 61 62 EconomicGrowth Iseconomicgrowthinothercountriesgoodorbadforournation Itmaybegoodforournationbecauseitmeanslargermarketsforourexports Itmaymeanincreasedcompetitionforourexporters Isgrowthinacountrymoreorlessvaluablewhenthatnationispartofacloselyintegratedworldeconomy Itshouldbemorevaluablewhenacountrycansellsomeofitsincreasedproductiontotheworldmarket Itislessvaluablewhenthebenefitsofgrowtharepassedontoforeignersratherthanretainedathome 63 GrowthandtheProductionPossibilityFrontierEconomicgrowthimpliesanoutwardshiftofacountry sproductionpossibilityfrontier TT BiasedgrowthTakesplacewhenTTshiftsoutmoreinonedirectionthanintheotherCanoccurfortworeasons TechnologicalprogressinonesectoroftheeconomyIncreaseinacountry ssupplyofafactorofproduction 64 65 GrowthandTrade DefinitionofGrowthandTypesofGrowthIncreasesinfactorendowmentsvs Factor savingtechnologicalprogressBiasedeconomicgrowth 不平衡增长 ExportExpanding EE 出口扩张型 Growthvs ImportReplacing IR 进口替代型 GrowthLargecountriesVssmallcountries 66 Export biasedgrowthDisproportionatelyexpandsacountry sproductionpossibilitiesinthedirectionofthegooditexportsWorsensagrowingcountry stermsoftrade tothebenefitoftherestoftheworldImport biasedgrowthDisproportionatelyexpandsacountry sproductionpossibilitiesinthedirectionofthegooditimportsImprovesagrowingcountry stermsoftradeattherestoftheword sexpense 67 IRGrowth aSmallCountryTOT Production Trade Welfare 68 IRGrowth aLargeCountry TOT Production Trade Welfare 69 EEGrowth aSmallCountryTOT Production Trade Welfare 70 Cases DutchDisease 荷兰病 Cause NewEconomyinU S 71 EEGrowth aLargeCountry TOT Production Consumption Trade Welfare 72 aspecialcase ImmiserizingGrowth 福利恶化型增长 73 74 TheSpecificFactorModel 特定要素模型 BasicAssumptionsThreeinputs factors Mobilefactor Labor L SpecificFactors Capital K andLand T Twooutputs Manufacture QM Food QF 75 Chapt 5ModernTradeTheories 5 1ModernTradeFacts5 1 1RiseofIntra industryTrade 产业内贸易 Intra industrialTrade IIT IndexWhenthereisaperfectIntra industrialTrade IIT 1 Whenthereisnotrade IIT 0 5 1 2IncreaseinTradebetweendevelopedcountries5 1 3ChangesinIndustrialLeadership 产业领先地位 76 77 78 ChangesinIndustrialLeadership TextilesTVCarSteelSemiconductor 79 5 2ImperfectCompetitionandInternationalTrade TheTheoryofImperfectCompetition ABriefReviewImperfectCompetitionandPriceDiscrimination 价格歧视 价格差异 PriceDiscriminationAssumption imperfectcompetitivefirmormonopolisticcompetitivefirm twomarketstotallydivided differentdemandintwomarkets 80 DumpingandInternationalTradeReciprocalDumpingandIntra industrialTrade 81 Example DomesticMarket1000UnitsP 20 Toincrease1unitinsale P1cent19 99 1001 1000 20 9 99MRd 9 99 ForeignMarket100UnitsP 15 14 99 101 15 100 13 99MRf 13 99 82 5 3EconomyofScale规模经济andInternationalTrade 83 EconomyofScale EconomiesofScale External外部规模经济Internal内部规模经济 84 5 4ProductCycle 85 Chapt 6INTERNATIONALFACTORMOVEMENTS 6 1INTERNATIONALMOVEMENTOFLABORGeneralSituationTypeofInternationalLaborMovementContractWorker外籍劳工Immigration移民WelfareEffectsonFirms Workers andtheWholeEconomy 86 87 6 3Multinationals TheoryofMultinationalsLocationResources transportationcosts tradebarriersInternalizationTechnologytransfer verticalintegration etc 88 DevelopmentofMultinationalsVirtuallyallofinternationaltradeinmanufacturesandservicesisdoneviamultinationals 1 3isdonewithinafirm 1 3isdoneatarm slengthinwhichbothsidesareMNCsand1 3isdoneatarm slengthinwhichonesideisanMNC 89 RoleofmultinationalsGlobalproductionandconsumptionFreermovementofcapitalInternationaltechnologytransferExchangesanddevelopmentofmanagerialskills 90 Section2TradePolicies Chapt 7TariffChapt 8Non tariffBarriersChapt 9ExportPolicies others 91 Introduction Thissetionisfocusedonthefollowingquestions Whataretheeffectsofvarioustradepolicyinstruments Whowillbenefit andwhowilllose Whatarethecostsandbenefitsofprotection Willthebenefitsoutweighthecosts Whatshouldanation stradepolicybe 92 Effectofeachpolicyon DomesticPrice DomesticProductionandConsumption TheWorldPrice TheTermsofTrade TheVolumeofImportorExportWelfareChangesforProducers Consumer Government andtheWholeEconomy 93 ClassificationofCommercialPolicyInstruments CommercialPolicyInstruments 94 Chapt 7IMPORTPOLICIES Tariff Define CustomsDutyorTariffPositiveeffectsToIncreaseFinancialrevenuesToProtectDomesticmarketToAdjustproduction marketD S Priceetc Tohaveacloseconnectionwithinternationaleconomicanddiplomaticrelations 95 Negativeeffects ToIncreaseconsumer sburdenTodecreasetradevolumeOverprotectionToworsentherelationsbetweentradepartnersSmuggling 96 Tariffscanbeclassifiedas TypesoftariffSpecificTariff 从量税 TaxesthatareleviedasafixedchargeforeachunitofgoodsimportedExample Aspecifictariffof 10oneachimportedbicyclewithaninternationalpriceof 100meansthatcustomsofficialscollectthefixedsumof 10 AdvaloremTariff 从价税TaxesthatareleviedasafractionofthevalueoftheimportedgoodsExample A20 advaloremtariffonbicyclesgeneratesa 20paymentoneach 100importedbicycle CompoundDuty复合税AlternativeDuty选择税 97 Acompoundduty tariff isacombinationofanadvaloremandaspecifictariff Moderngovernmentsusuallyprefertoprotectdomesticindustriesthroughavarietyofnontariffbarriers suchas ImportquotasLimitthequantityofimportsExportrestraintsLimitthequantityofexports 98 ImportDutyExportDutyTransitDutyRevenueTariffProtectiveTariffImportSurtax 进口附加税 Counter VaillingDuty反补贴税Anti DumpingDuty反倾销税VariableLevy差价税PreferentialDuty特惠税GeneralizedSystemPreferences GSP普遍优惠制 99 PA P2 P1 Figure7 1 DerivingHome sImportDemandCurve BasicTariffAnalysis 100 Propertiesoftheimportdemandcurve Itintersectstheverticalaxisattheclosedeconomypriceoftheimportingcountry Itisdownwardsloping Itisflatterthanthedomesticdemandcurveintheimportingcountry BasicTariffAnalysis 101 P2 P A P1 Figure7 2 DerivingForeign sExportSupplyCurve BasicTariffAnalysis 102 Propertiesoftheexportsupplycurve Itintersectstheverticalaxisattheclosedeconomypriceoftheexportingcountry Itisupwardsloping Itisflatterthatthedomesticsupplycurveintheexportingcountry BasicTariffAnalysis 103 Figure7 3 WorldEquilibrium MD BasicTariffAnalysis 104 Usefuldefinitions Thetermsoftradeistherelativepriceoftheexportablegoodexpressedinunitsoftheimportablegood Asmallcountryisacountrythatcannotaffectitstermsoftradenomatterhowmuchittradeswiththerestoftheworld Theanalyticalframeworkwillbebasedoneitherofthefollowing TwolargecountriestradingwitheachotherAsmallcountrytradingwiththerestoftheworld BasicTariffAnalysis 105 EffectsofaTariffAssumethattwolargecountriestradewitheachother SupposeHomeimposesataxof 2oneverybushelofwheatimported Thenshipperswillbeunwillingtomovethewheatunlessthepricedifferencebetweenthetwomarketsisatleast 2 Figure8 4illustratestheeffectsofaspecifictariffof tperunitofwheat BasicTariffAnalysis 106 PT MD D S PW BasicTariffAnalysis Figure7 4 EffectsofaTariff P T 3 Homemarket Worldmarket Foreignmarket 107 Figure7 5 ATariffinaSmallCountry PW t PW BasicTariffAnalysis 108 MeasuringtheAmountofProtectionInanalyzingtradepolicyinpractice itisimportanttoknowhowmuchprotectionatradepolicyactuallyprovides BasicTariffAnalysis 109 ProtectionLevelofTariff TariffLevel关税水平NominalRateofProtection名义保护率EffectiveRateofProtectionorEffectiveTariffRate有效保护率 Vj ValueaddeddomesticallyVjValueaddedabroad 110 example 自由贸易下 中国进口自行车售价200 原料成本140 增值60 征税 整车10 220 原材料5 147 增值73 有效保护率 73 60 60 21 7 111 自由贸易下 中国进口棉纱价格20 原棉价格15 112 CostsandBenefitsofaTariff Atariffraisesthepriceofagoodintheimportingcountryandlowersitintheexportingcountry Asaresultofthesepricechanges ConsumersloseintheimportingcountryandgainintheexportingcountryProducersgainintheimportingcountryandloseintheexportingcountryGovernmentimposingthetariffgainsrevenueTomeasureandcomparethesecostsandbenefits weneedtodefineconsumerandproducersurplus 113 Figure7 6 DerivingConsumerSurplusfromtheDemandCurve CostsandBenefitsofaTariff 114 Figure7 7 GeometryofConsumerSurplus CostsandBenefitsofaTariff P1 P2 115 Figure7 8 GeometryofProducerSurplus CostsandBenefitsofaTariff P2 P1 116 CostsandBenefitsofaTariff MeasuringtheCostandBenefitsIsitpossibletoaddconsumerandproducersurplus Wecan algebraically addconsumerandproducersurplusbecauseanychangeinpriceaffectseachindividualintwoways AsaconsumerAsaworkerWeassumethatatthemarginadollar sworthofgainorlosstoeachgroupisofthesamesocialworth 117 Figure7 9 CostsandBenefitsofaTarifffortheImportingCountry CostsandBenefitsofaTariff PT PW P T 118 Figure7 10 NetWelfareEffectsofaTariff PT PW P T CostsandBenefitsofaTariff 119 Cost benefitanalysis AmbiguousProductiondistortionloss bConsumptiondistortionloss dTermsoftradegain e Small countryresult b d Atariffalwaysmakesitworseoff Large countryresul