国际投资报告(中英文).doc

16目录一、概述2二、FPI交易情况分析3（一）OILS安德鲁音叉线3（二）USDJPY艾丝特波浪理论4（三）GOLDS斐波那契回调线4（四）SILERS长期均线7（五）GBPUD上升锲行8（六）EURJPY抛物线转向指标8（七）USDCHF布林线10（八）EURUSD相对强弱指标10三、研究型学习报告11（一）安德鲁音叉线12（二）艾丝特波浪理论13（三）上升锲形13（四）相对强弱指标14四、总结15五、附件17一、概述从三月到四月，四周的模拟外汇操作，利用课堂所学知识，在实践中运用，在收获与得失中，加深对各个技术指标的理解，并体会其特点，变成自己的知识，收获很多。首先通过基本面分析,对整体经济状况有一个相对的了解后,再学习各个技术指标,并通过各个技术指标分析更精确的获得更多的信息。进行各种交易，保证每周都运用两种以上指标，以下列出比较有代表性的八次交易并分析对指标的运用，客观事实的来理解交易指标的不同特点。运用安德鲁音叉线，对OLIS进行的交易，获利1350美元、2460美元；运用艾丝特波浪理论，对USDJPY进行的交易，获利2706美元;运用斐波那契回调线，对GOLDS进行的交易，获利4348美元、4149美元、4989美元；运用长期均线，对SILERS进行交易，获利11500美元；运用上升锲形，对GBPUD进行交易，获利820美元；运用抛物线转向指标，对EURJPY进行交易，获利2362.11美元，损失991.18美元、5016.32美元、9923美元；运用布林线，对EURCHF进行交易，获利1635.41美元；运用相对强弱指标，对EURUSD进行交易，获利3300美元。在研究性报告中，汇报整个过程我所查阅学习的资料，以及学习心得体会。总结里，包括此次学习过程的收获，体会，以及经验等。最后附上此次交易所有记录。From March to April, the simulation foreign exchange operations, use of class studied the knowledge, practice using, in harvest and the gain and loss, deepen our understanding of the various technical indexes of understanding, and experience its characteristics, and become your own knowledge, a lot.First through the fundamental analysis, to overall economic conditions have a relative knowledge, and study all technology index, and through the various technical index analysis more accurate for more information. To make deals, ensure that every week with two above index, the following list more representative of the eight times the transaction and analysis to the use of the index, the objective facts to understand the different characteristics of the trading index.Using the Andrews Pitchforks on OLIS trading, profit to $1350, $2460;Using the Elliott Wave Theory on USDJPY trading, profit to $2706;Use the Fibonacci Retracements on GOLDS to trading, profit to $4348, $4149, $4989;Using long-term averages on SILERS trading, profit $11500;Using the Rising Wedge on GBPUD trading, profit to $820;Using the Stop and Reveres on EURJPY trading, profit to $2362.11, the loss is $991.18, $5016.32, $9923;Using the Bollinger Bands on EURCHF trading, profit to $1635.41;Using the relative strength index on EURUSD trading, profit to 3300 dollars;In research report, the report that I refer to the whole process of learning material, and learning experience. The summary includes the process of learning harvest, experience. Finally enclose the record of all the deals.二、FPI交易情况分析（一）OILS安德鲁音叉线在石油（OILS）的价格图中，找到了我认为是双底的形态，连接一浪的起点，拉升到一浪的终点，然后再点击二浪的终点，做了一个大叉子。根据安德鲁音叉线,预测将来可能要走三浪,在调整结束、突破下降趋势线后买入，在上升期间价格不会低于音叉的L1线。在价格运行中，到L2线时，即将到达但是并没有跌破，然后再次上攻价格到达L3线，此时选择了理智选择了平仓。根据之后的走势看出，到达L3线后，就进入跌势。In the figure price of oil (OILS), found I think the double bottom is the shape of a wave of the connection starting point, pull up to the end of a wave, and then click on the second wave of the end point, made a fork. According to Andrew tuning fork line, predict the future may to go three waves, in the end, to break down adjustment trend line after buying, rising in price will not lower than during the L1 line a tuning fork. In the price of operation, to the L2 line, will arrive but not below, then again attack on the price reaches L3 line, at this time the reason chose choose liquidated. According to the trend of the after that, to L3 line into the break.（二）USDJPY艾丝特波浪理论在美元兑日元（USDJPY）上应用艾斯特波浪理论，该理论认为，每个完整循环都会有几个波段。一个循环中前五个波段是看涨的，后三个则是看跌的；而前五个波段中，第一、三、五，即奇数序号，是上升的，第二、四、六波段，即偶数波段中的六波段偶数序号是明显看跌的；第七为奇数序号则是反弹整理。因此奇数序波段基本上在不同程度上是看涨的或反弹，而偶数序波段则是看跌或回跌。整个循环呈现的是一上一下的总规律。如图所示,判断出波段后,看准时机卖出,然后获利后平仓，最终获利2706美元。In the dollar against the yen (USDJPY) application, estrada wave theory, the theory that each will have a few bands complete cycle. A cycle top five band is a bullish, after three is bearish; And the first five band, first, three, five, namely the odd number, serial Numbers, is increased, the second, four, six wavelength, or even the band six band the even number is obviously bears; The seventh for the odd number is rebound finishing. So odd number sequence band basically in different degree is a bullish or to rebound, and the even order band is bearish or fell. The whole cycle presents is a total it regularly. As shown in figure, after judge the band, certain time to sell, and then profit after the same score a storehouse, finally a profit of 2706 dollars.（三）GOLDS斐波那契回调线1、基本面分析 (1)政治局势。政治动荡通常都会有对金价利好情况的出现，战争会使得物价上涨，令金价得到支撑。黄金往往会作为一种规避政治和经济风险的投资工具出现。 (2)黄金的生产量。黄金生产量的增减，会影响到黄金的供求平衡。黄金生产量南非最大，任何工人罢工或其它特殊情况的发生，都会对其产量产生影响。其次，黄金的生产成本也会影响产量。在1992年，因为黄金生产成本提高，不少的金矿停止生产，导致了金价的一度推高。 (3)黄金需求。黄金除了是一种保值工具以外，更有工业用途和装饰用途。电子业、牙医类、珠宝业等用金工业，在生产上出现的变动，都会影响到黄金的价格。 (4)通货膨胀。当物价指数上升时，就意味着通货膨胀的加剧。通涨的到来会影响一切投资的保值功能，故此黄金价格也会有升降。虽然黄金作为对付通货膨胀的武器的作用已不如以前，但是高通涨仍然会对金价起到刺激作用。 (5)美元走势。美元和黄金是相对的投资工具，如果美元的走势强劲，投资美元就会有更大的收益，因此美元的价格就会受到影响。相反，在美元处于弱市的时候，投资者又会减少其资本对美元的投资，而投向金市，推动金价的强劲。 (6)利率因素。如果利率提高，投资人士存款会获得较大的收息，对于无息的黄金，会造成利空作用。相反，利率下滑，会对金价较为有利。 (7)政府行为。当政府需要套取外汇时，不管当时黄金的价格如何，都会沽出所储备的黄金来获得。与此相对应，政府黄金回收的数据，也时影响黄金价格的重要指标。 影响金价走势的基本面因素很多，但每个时期都会有某个因素的影响强度占据主要地位，我们根据这些因素来作出判断时，应当考虑到当前它们各自作用的强度到底有多大，找到各个因素的主次地位和影响周期，来进行最佳的投资决策。1、 Fundamental Analysis(1) the political situation. Political unrest there is usually good to the condition in gold, and in war, makes the price rise, make gold prices get support. Gold will often as a political and economic risk avoid the investment tools appear. (2) the gold output. Gold production increase or decrease, will affect the balance between supply and demand of gold. Gold production South Africa is the largest, any workers went on strike or other special situations, its going to affect the output. Second, gold production costs will also affect the yield. In 1992, because the gold production costs rise, and a lot of gold mine stop production, led to the price of gold once pushed higher. (3) gold demand. Gold is a hedge against inflation tools in addition to outside, more have industrial USES and decorative purposes. The electronic, the dentist kind, with gold jewelry industry and industry, to appear on production, the change of will influence the gold price. (4) inflation. When price index rise, means of inflation. The arrival of inflation will affect the value of all investment function, therefore, gold prices will also have lift. Although gold as fighting inflation weapon role has been worse than before, but high inflation will still play the stimulation of gold. (5) dollars movements. The dollar and gold is relative investment tools, if the dollar on the movements of the strong, the investment dollars will have greater gains, so the price of usd will be affected. In contrast, in the city of on the weak dollar, investors and will reduce the capital to invest in dollars, and to JinShi, pushing the price of gold strong. (6) interest rates factors. If interest rates rise, people will get great investment deposit of ShouXi, interest-free for gold, can cause bad effect. Instead, interest rates down, will be relatively advantageous to gold. (7) the government behavior. When the government needs to show the foreign exchange, no matter when the price of gold how, will sell out the reserves of gold to obtain. Accordingly, the government gold recovery of data, also affect the price of gold when an important index.Influence of many factors gold trend fundamentals, but each will have a period of the influence of strength take leading status, we according to these factors to make a judgment, consideration should be given to the role of their respective how much strength, find the primary and secondary factors and status and influence cycle, for the best investment decisions.2、技术面分析在黄金上应用斐波那契回调线（黄金分割线），从一小时图中，取最高点为A点，最低点为B点，落在0.618黄金位置1663点附近反弹，在图中可以看到61.8%黄金点与实际点不完全吻合，恰巧在计算和实际中，我平仓出了一点问题，而且就在附近买了两次，不过还是分别获利了4348美元和4149美元，算是运气不错吧。后来吸取经验，又利用斐波那契回调线，在黄金上又运用一次，同样获利颇丰，为4989美元。笔者发现，斐波那契回调线应用在黄金上是非常有益的，不仅可以学到很多关于斐波那契指标的很多知识也能在应用中感到其实用性，并利用它获利。2、Technical Analysis In the gold on the use of the Fibonacci callback line (gold cent secant), from an hour figure, take A point at its, lowest for B, fall in 0.618 gold position near 1663 rebound, in the picture can see 61.8% gold point and actual point not exact, happen to be in the calculation and practical, I unwind out A little problem, and is nearby bought two times, but were gain $4348 and $4149, it is lucky. Later learn from experience, and use the Fibonacci callback line, in gold and use on a, also a profitable, for 4989 dollars. The author discovered that the Fibonacci callback line in the application of gold is good, not only can learn a lot about the Fibonacci index of many in the application of knowledge could also feel the practicality, and use it to a profit.（四）SILERS长期均线1、基本面分析白银估值偏低,涨势或将强于黄金报告摘要：银和黄金一样，是一种应用历史十分悠久的贵金属，人类开始开采白银要上溯到4000多年前。普通老百姓针对白银的概念大多集中在银元、银首饰、银餐具等方面。其实除此之外由于白银特有的物理化学特性，它还是重要的工业原料，广泛应用于电子电气、感光材料、医药化工、消毒抗菌、环保、白银饰品及制品等领域。随着电子工业、航空工业、电力工业的大发展，白银的工业需求正稳步快速增长；另外白银相对于黄金来说价格被低估，白银的消耗量比黄金大，存留量却较小，白银的投资价值正不断的被人们所认可。1、 Fundamental AnalysisSilver low valuations, gains or better than gold will report the: silver and gold, is a kind of application has a very long history of precious metals, humans began to mining silver to ascend to the more than 4000 years ago. Ordinary people in the concept of silver mostly in silver and silver jewelry, silver cutlery, etc. In fact in addition because silver special physical and chemical characteristics, and it is still an important industrial raw materials, widely used in electric, photographic materials, pharmaceutical and chemical industry, disinfection antibacterial, environmental protection, silver jewelry and products, etc. As the electronic industry, aviation industry, electric power industry of the big development, silver industry demand rapid growth is steadily; Another relative to the gold price for silver be underestimated, the consumption of silver than gold, but reserved quantity smaller, silver investment value are constantly being recognized by the people. 2、技术面分析在白银的价格图中，插入长期均线，可以看到在A点，红线在黑线的上方，处于涨势，此时买入白银，到达B点时，发现红线要压过黑线，预计会开始进入跌态，此时抛售平仓白银，利用长期均线此笔交易获利11500美元。2、Technical Analysis In the silver prices figure, insert the long-term averages, can see in A point, red line in the upper part of the black line, in advance, this time the buying silver, to B, it was found that the red line down to the black line, is expected to begin to enter fall state, this time the selling unwind silver, use long-term averages the deal A profit of 11500 dollars.（五）GBPUD上升锲行在GBPUD价格图中，插入上升锲行线，可以看到在短期内，价格会下降，此时卖出，之后，由于时间有限，同时没有设置好止损价位，导致直接平仓，获利较小，仅为820美元。不过，通过之后的形势图可以看到，价格依然是下降的，次上升锲形很适用。In GBPUD price figure, insert this rise lines, can see in the short term, the price will drop, sold at this time, and, after that, because of the time limit, and at the same time not set a stop price, cause direct liquidated, profit lesser, only for 820 dollars. However, through the situation can be seen after graph, the price still is down, time is very suitable shape up facilities.（六）EURJPY抛物线转向指标1、基本面分析今日亚洲时段日本央行维持隔夜拆借利率和资产购买规模不变，使得市场此前对其即将推出新一轮宽松政策的预期瞬间打破，日元获此支撑大幅走高。而欧债方面，西班牙10年期国债收益率周二仍在持续上升，并触及年内最高水平，至5.9%上方，涨17个基点。欧债情况依旧不容乐观，进一步打压欧元下挫，日元继续上行。基本面情况天差地别，使得今日日元在与欧元的博弈中呈现出压倒性的优势。不过，长期来看，虽然欧债危机可能短时间无法缓解，不过日本方面也不会一直利好。日本央行在未来仍有进一步释放宽松的可能，日元能否长期维持强势值得怀疑。1, Fundamental Analysis Today the bank of Japans Asian time keep overnight call rate and asset purchasing scale unchanged, make the market had its coming soon to a new round of loose policy expected burst, the Japanese yen to receive the support sharply higher. And the debt, the Spanish 10-year yield on Tuesday continued rising, and touch the highest level in years, to 5.9% above, up 17 percentage points. The debt situation is still not optimistic, further down the euro fell, the yen continues to uplink. Fundamental situation day difference dont, making the yen and the euro in todays game show overwhelming advantage. But, in the long term, although the European debt crisis may have a short time to ease, but Japan also wont have been good. The bank of Japan in the future there are still further release loose may, the yen could remain strong long-term suspect. 2、技术面分析将抛物线转向指标插入EURJPY价格图中，在末端SAR出现正好落到了价格曲线的下方，发出了买入信号，当SAR越过价格曲线上方时，正好卖出。当我之后用这种方法继续买卖时，由于个人原因导致判断失误，以至于损失惨重。2、Technical Analysis Will turn to insert EURJPY price index parabola figure, in the end just fell on price appear SAR curve of the lower part, issued a buy signal, when SAR over price above the curve, just sell. When I later in this way to continue buying and selling, due to personal reasons cause judgment error, that loss .（七）USDCHF布林线在USDCHF价格图中，看到布林线处于一个开口较小的情况下，此时买进会有一些危险，因为布林线指标只能告诉我们这些股票随时会突破，但是随后，价格开始有往上的趋势，估计是进入上升状态，冒着一定的危险，还是选择买入，而后的事实证明，虽然危险还是成功了，当第二个开口变小出现时，便抛售平仓了，此次交易获利1635美元。Will turn to insert USDCHF price index parabola figure, in the end just fell on price appear SAR curve of the lower part, issued a buy signal, when SAR over price above the curve, just sell. When I later in this way to continue buying and selling, due to personal reasons cause judgment error, that loss . In USDCHF price figure, see sergey line in opening a smaller, at this time there will be some dangerous buy, because sergey line indicator can only tell us these stocks will break at any time, but then, prices began to have the trend up, estimation is rising into the state, take certain danger, still choose to buy, and then proved as dangerous or a success, when the second openings smaller appeared, then selling liquidated, the gains from trade to $1635.（八）EURUSD相对强弱指标1、基本面分析欧元区近期利多利空消息交织，昨日德国和葡萄牙国债标售尚可，但葡萄牙十年期国债收益率创新高，显示情况依旧不乐观。但欧元却呈现较明显的上涨势头，至周四欧洲盘前持稳于1.2880下方。此前我们一直关注于去年年底以来的下降通道，从图形中可以看出，通道阻力在1.2880-1.29一带，而1.29附近是前期整理平台的低点，也是1月反弹的高点，因此技术上看该区域是较为关键的阻力位。短线不宜过分追高，但从近期欧元抗跌性走势来看，近期欧元确有翻身迹象，激进投资者可待回调后买入。1, Fundamental Analysis The euro area the recent bad news interweave, yesterday Germany and Portugal national debt auctions passable, but the Portuguese 10-year Treasury yield innovation high, show still not optimistic. But the euro but has a clear up momentum, to Thursday before European plate steady in 1.2880 below. After we have been focused on the decline since the end of last year channel, from graphics can see, channel resistance at 1.2880-1.29 area, and near the finishing 1.29 is the low point of the platform, also is January the bounce of the top, so the technology the area is a key to see the resistance. Short line shoulds not be too chase high, but from the recent euro resistance movements of falling to see, the recent euro signs have emancipated, radical investors to buy after callback. 2、技术面分析在EURUSD价格图中插入相对强弱指标后，意外发现RSI此时处在5080强中，于是立马买入，不过当时没有设置好止损点，后来没有及时在80100极强（A）点卖出，导致最佳交易错过了，幸好当笔者发现时，RSI相比之前买入还是好些，并不要求获利很大，当即平仓卖出，获利虽然不算很多3300美元，抱着平常心态，也满意了。2、Technical Analysis EURUSD price figure in insert relative strength index, accident found at this time in 50-80 RSI is strong, and buy immediately, but did not set stoploss, later have no in time in the 80-100 strengthened (A) point sell, lead to best deal missed, fortunately, when the author discovered, RSI before buying or better than, does not require A profit and promptly unwind sell, though not many $3300 profit, holding the normal state of mind, also satisfied.三、研究型学习报告在整个学习过程中，由于基础知识了解不牢固，所以查阅了许多资料来弥补知识缺陷。In the learning process, because I dont know basic knowledge, so a lot of material to make up for access to knowledge defects . （一）安德鲁音叉线首先，由同学推荐，学习了安德鲁音叉线的用法。查阅资料我了解到：安德鲁音叉线在证券分析图表上，基于价格的作用和反作用，提供的一个直观分析方法，用来判断趋势的强度，支撑和阻力。 安德鲁音叉线是一种利用三条平行趋势线来研判可能的支撑位和阻力位的技术指标。趋势线的绘制方法是在所判定的趋势上画三个点。这三个点通常放在三个连续的波峰或波谷上。 画好三个点后，从第一个点画一条直线，使它与其余两个点的中点相交。 安德鲁音叉线也称为“鱼叉线”，是研判中期趋势的强势指标。它作为一个单独的交易工具被许多交易者使用。我们需要理解指标的定义，指标作者认为市场在接近中线时，将做两件事情。一、市场将要在中线处反转。二、市场将要通过中线，朝上方平行线前进，然后反转。 安德鲁音叉线需要找到3个点，而且这三个点要找准的确有点难度。该指标通常用来发现回调浪C的底点，第C浪通常在中线或上方/下方平行线结束。将音叉鼠标放在回调A浪起点，移动鼠标到A浪底点、然后移动鼠标到B浪的底点。找到我认为是双底的形态，连接一浪的起点，拉伸到一浪的终点，然后再点击二浪的终点做成一个大叉子。找到双底后，并认为将来可能要走三浪，这时可以在调整结束、突破下降趋势线后买入。在上升期间价格不能低于音叉的L1线，如果一旦跌破则意味着极有可能创新低，即使不创新低，未来的走势也多数属于大C浪，而不是暴发性的三浪。当价格运行到L2线时，这是很重要的一关，多数情况会遇阻回落，同样价格回落时不能跌破L1线，然后再次上攻价格会到达L3线。如果价格直接突破L2线，则下一目标直指L3。实线的意义极为关键，它们是基本应该到达的位置，价格运行到这些位置时一般都会遇到的很大的阻力而回落调整。如果有幸冲破实线关口，则接下来的目标就清晰在目了。（一）the Andrews PitchforksFirst of all, the students recommend, learn a tuning fork the use of Andrew line.Access to information I know: find I think the double bottom is the shape of a wave of the connection starting point, stretching to the end of a wave, and then click the end of two waves made a big fork. Find double bottom, and that the future may to go three waves, then can end in the adjustment of the trend line, breakthrough decline after buying. Rise in price lower than during the L1 line not a tuning fork, if once fell below means most likely low innovation, even if not innovation is low, the trend of the future is most to the C wave, not the explosive three waves. When price running to the L2 line, it is a very important one pass, most would be blocked, fell back prices fell below the same cannot be measured line, then the price will attack on again to L3 line. If the price is direct breakthrough L2 line, then the next targeted L3. The significance of the solid line is key, they are basic should be in place, price running to the position of general will meet a lot of resistance and adjust back. If youre lucky enough to break through the solid line pass, then the next target is clear in the eyes.（二）艾丝特波浪理论 查阅由(美)小罗伯特鲁格劳特普莱切特和(美)阿尔弗雷德约翰弗罗斯特的中译本艾略特波浪理论：市场行为的关键(Elliott Wave Principle) 。波浪理论的四个基本特点：（1）股价指数的上升和下跌将会交替进行； （2）推动浪和调整浪是价格波动两个最基本型态，而推动浪（即与大市走向一致的波浪）可以再分割成五个小浪，一般用第浪、第浪、第浪、第浪、第浪来表示，调整浪也可以划分成三个小浪，通常用浪、浪、浪表示。 （3）在上述八个波浪（五上三落）完毕之后，一个循环即告完成，走势将进入下一个八波浪循环； （4）时间的长短不会改变波浪的形态，因为市场仍会依照其基本型态发展。波浪可以拉长，也可以缩细，但其基本型态永恒不变。 总之，波浪理论可以用一句话来概括：即八浪循环 （二）the Elliott Wave TheoryAccess by Robert, and Alfred, Elliott Wave