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历年真题出现次数10次以上的单词 author 65 n. 作者;创始人science 56 n. 科学;学科school 40 n. 学校;(大学里的)学院,系;学派,流派information 39 n. 通知,报告;情报,信息social 38 a. 社会的;交际的;n. 社交活动result 35 n. 结果,成果,成绩;v. (in)导致,结果是;(from)起因于, 因而造成cost 33 n. 成本,费用,代价;v. 价值为,花费business 32 n. 商业,生意;事务,业务,职责;企业;贸易量; 行业,业务rate 30 n. 比率,率;等级;价格,费用;v. 估价;评级,评价technology 30 n. 工艺,技术;手段consume 29 v. 消费,消耗;耗尽economy 29 n. 节约;经济;经济国家process 29 n. 过程,进程;工序,制作法;工艺;v. 加工,处理system 28 n. 系统,体系;制度,体制view 28 n. 景象,风景;观点,见解;观察,观看;眼界;v. 看待, 观察,考虑reason 26 n. 理由,原因;理性,理智;v. 推论,推理;说服,评理; 讨论,辩论tend 24 v. 趋向,往往是;照料,看护moral 23 a. 道德(上)的,道义的;n. 寓意,教育意义;道德behavior 21 n. 行为,举止;(机器的)特性economic 21 a. 经济(上)的,经济学的growth 21 n. 生长,增长,发展concern 20 v. 涉及,关系到;(常与with,about,in连用)关心,挂念; 担心,担忧;n.(利害)关系;关心,挂念;担心,担忧lead 20 v. 领导,引导;领先,占首位;(to)通向,导致,引起; 经验,过(生活);n. 带领,引导;n. 铅theory 20 n. 理论,原理;学说,见解,看法;看法,观点create 19 v. 创造,创作;引起,造成,建立culture 19 n. 修养,教养;文化,文明individual 19 a. 个人的,单独的;独特的;n. 个人,个体role 19 n. 角色;作用,任务achieve 18 v. 完成,实现;达到,达成,获得argue 18 v. 争论,辩论;认为,主张,论证;说服decade 18 n. 十年experience 18 n. 经验,经历;v. 体验,经历infer 18 v. 推论,推断account 17 n. 账(目,户);叙述,说明;价值,地位;v. (for) 说明,解释;占;(take into account)考虑;顾及available 17 a. 可用的,可得到的;可以见到的,随时可来的community 17 n. 同一地区的全体居民,社会,社区;共同体,团体involve 17 v. 卷入,陷入,连累;包含,含有,涉及average 16 n.平均(数);a.平均的;普通的,一般的;v.平均,均分benefit 16 n.利益,好处,恩惠;v. 有益于;(from,by)受益dam 16 水坝,水闸influence 16 n.(on)影响,感化;势力,权势;v.影响,感化intellectual 16 n. 知识分子issue 16 v. 流出,放出;发行,发表,颁布;n. 发行(物),(报刊)期号; 问题,争论点,争端obvious 16 a. 明显的,显而易见的present 16 a. 出席的,到场的;现在的,目前的;n. 现在,目前; 礼物,赠品;v. 赠(送),呈献;介绍,陈述;提出,呈交;上演structure 16 n. 结构,构造;建筑物;v. 构造,建造activity 15 n. 活动;活性,活力competition 15 n. 比赛;竞争conscious 15 a. (of)意识到的,自觉的;有意识的,神志清醒的sense 15 n. 感官,官能;感觉;判断力;见识;意义,意思;v. 感觉到,意识到able 14 a. 有能力的,能干的,显示出才华的decline 14 v./n.下倾,下降,下垂,衰落;斜面,倾斜;v.拒绝,谢绝depend 14 v. (on)取决于,依靠,信赖,相信describe 14 v. 描述,形容fund 14 n. 资金,基金;v.资助,投资intend 14 v. 想要,打算,企图knowledge 14 n. 知识,学识;知道,了解nature 14 n. 自然界,大自然;性质,本性,天性professional 14 a. 职业的,专业的,专门的;n.专家,专业人员ability 能力,智能;才能,才干advantage n. 优点,长处,有利条件;利益,好处;v. 有利于,使获利advocate n. 提倡者,鼓吹者;v.提倡,鼓吹approach v. 靠近,接近,邻近;n.方法,途径;探讨attention n.注意(力),留心;立正attitude n. (to,towards)态度,看法;姿势consequence n. 结果,后果,影响;重要性emotion 情绪,情感environment 环境,外界evidence 根据,证据;形迹,迹象federal 联邦的inflation 通货膨胀potential 潜在的,可能的;势的,位的;n. 潜能,潜力product 产品,产物;乘积;结果,后substance 物质,实质;大意;财产,财物tradition 传统,惯例 Physiognomy and economics 相面术与经济学 About face 有关相貌 Peoples creditworthiness, it seems, can be seen in their looks 人的信誉度,似乎可以为相貌所反映 SCIENCE proceeds by trial and error. The successes are trumpeted. The errors are often regarded with embarrassment by subsequent generations, and locked away in attic rooms of the subjects mansion like mad relatives in a Victorian novel. Usually, they stay there. Craniology, phrenology and eugenics, once-respectable fields of endeavor that are now regarded with a shudder, may shriek from time to time, but few sane people pay attention to them. One, however, has escaped recently, and is trying to rehabilitate itself. For years physiognomythe idea that a persons face is a reflection of his characterwas sneered at. Now, it is making a come back. 科学依靠试错而前行。成功伴随着胜利的号角得以扬名天下,而谬误让后人感到尴尬万分,就像维多利亚时代的小说中常描写的发疯的亲戚那样,被束之高阁,无人问津。通常情况下,这些谬论就这么一直沉寂下去了。颅骨测量学、颅骨性向学、优生学这些曾经引人景仰的学说现在已经令人厌恶,虽然偶尔也能让人注意片刻,但在常人的意识中已经无立锥之地了。然而,最近有一个学说似乎逃出沉沦,绝地重生。这就是相面术,即所谓人的脸反映其性格的学说。这个曾被人讥讽、嘲笑的对象,现在卷土重来了。 Appearances certainly count. Women, for instance, judge men by their faces. Testosterone levels are reflected in the face, and who is seen as a one-night stand and who as a potential husband depends in part on this physical feature. Similarly, a male face betrays the owners underlying aggressiveness and even his business acumen. Facial beauty in either sex is also associated with higher incomes. The latest research, though, cuts to the moral quick. For Jefferson Duarte of Rice University in Houston, Texas, and his colleagues are suggesting that one of a persons most telling moral features, his creditworthiness, can also be seen in his face. 人的外表确实重要。例如,女人通常根据脸判别男人。脸反映了男人的雄激素的水平,谁被看作是一夜情对象,谁被看作是一个潜在的丈夫在某种程度上取决于脸部特征。可同样也是男性的脸隐藏了其下的进取心,甚至是他的商业敏感。对男女两性来说,漂亮的脸蛋也与高收入不无关系。最新的研究结果,把人的相貌和道德之间的关系也迅速搭建起来了。之所以这么说,是因为位于得克萨斯州休斯顿的赖斯大学的杰弗逊杜阿尔特和他的同事们认为,作为最反映一个人道德水平的特征 - 人的信誉度,也同时反映在了他的脸上。 Dr Duartes research was enabled by the internet. Once, if you wanted to borrow money, you had either to visit a bank or to tap a rich friend or relative. Now it is possible to do business directly with a stranger, using a peer-to-peer lending site. The needy advertise themselves, and how much they want. Those flush with cash assess potential borrowers and decide who to lend to, and at what rate of interest. 阿尔特博士的研究是由互联网启用。 再次,如果您要借钱,你可以访问银行或利用丰富的朋友或亲戚。现在是做生意的可能直接与一个陌生人,使用点对点借贷网站。 需要宣传自己,他们要多少。这些充裕的现金评估潜在的借款人,并决定向谁贷款,以及以何种利率。 The borrowers themselves have to disclose their financial positions, credit histories, jobs and education. Often, though this is not required, they also post photographs of themselves. That means it might be possible to assess the effects of appearance on the outcome. And the process is an open auction, which means that all offers, acceptances and rejections are in the public domain. 借款人本身必须公开其财务状况,信用记录,就业和教育。通常情况下,尽管这不是必需的,他们还张贴自己的照片。 这意味着有可能的影响评估的结果出现。该进程是一个开放的拍卖,这意味着所有提供,接受和拒绝是在公共领域。 For his research, Dr Duarte chose a site called P. His intention was twofold: to see if physiognomy-based prejudices about creditworthiness existed and, if they did, whether they were justified. To do so he used another peer-to-peer website to subcontract the job of assessing creditworthiness to a number of ordinary people. The site in question (which is run by Amazon) is called Mechanical Turk. In this case the people it matches are those who have a task that needs doing, and those willing to perform it. 他的研究,选择了医生杜阿尔特网站呼吁P 。他的意图是双重的:看看地貌为基础的偏见和信誉存在,如果他们这么做,他们是否是合理的。这样做他用另一种点对点网站的工作分包合同信用评估了一些普通百姓。 该网站的问题(这是由亚马逊)被称为机械特克。在这种情况下,人民匹配的是谁的任务,需要做的时候,和那些愿意履行它。Peer review The team recruited 25 Mechanical Turk workers and asked them to assess pictures of potential borrowers that had been posted on P. In particular, they were asked to rate, on a scale of one to five, how trustworthy these people looked, and to estimate the percentage probability that each individual would repay a $100 loan. They were also asked to make several other assessments, such as the individuals sex, race, age, attractiveness and obesity. The 25 results for each photograph were then averaged and analyzed. 研究小组招募25机械特克工人,并要求他们以评估潜在的借款人的照片,已张贴在P 。特别是,他们被要求速度,规模的4点59分,怎么看这些人的信赖,并估计百分比概率每一个人将偿还100美元的贷款。他们还要求作出若干其他评估,如个人的性别,种族,年龄,吸引力和肥胖。 结果在25日的照片,然后每场和分析。 The researchers looked at 6,821 loan applications, 733 of which were successful. Their first finding was that the assessments of trustworthiness, and of likelihood to repay a loan, that were made by Mechanical Turk workers did indeed correlate with potential borrowers credit ratings based on their credit history. That continued to be so when the other variables, from beauty to race to obesity, were controlled for statistically. Shifty physiognomy, it seems, is independent of these things. 研究者观察到6821贷款申请,其中733是成功的。他们的第一个结论是,评估的可信度,并可能偿还贷款,即发了言机械特克工人确实相关的潜在借款人的信用等级根据其信用记录。继续这样做时,其他变量,来自美种族肥胖,被控制的统计。 富机智的外貌,似乎是独立于这些东西。 That shiftiness was also recognized by those whose money was actually at stake. People flagged as untrustworthy by the Mechanical Turks were less likely than others to be offered a loan at all. To have the same chance of getting one as those deemed most trustworthy they were required to pay an interest rate that was, on average, 1.82 percentage points higher, even when the effects of historical creditworthiness were statistically eliminated. 这shiftiness也承认那些钱实际上是处于危险之中。 标记为不可信赖的人的机械土耳其人不太可能比其他人提供的贷款在所有。具有相同的机会获得一个为那些被认为最值得信赖的,他们需要支付的利息是,平均1.82个百分点,即使在历史上的影响进行了统计信誉消除。 For trustworthiness, then, physiognomy works. Unfortunately, Dr Duartes method was not designed to find out which features label someone as trustworthy. But credit-rating agencies are no doubt working on that question even now. 对于诚信,那么,地貌工程。 不幸的是,医生杜阿尔特的方法不是为了找出哪些功能标签作为值得信赖的人。但信用评级机构的工作毫无疑问是对这个问题即使是现在 Internet search data may be useful for forecasters 网络搜索数据也许可以帮助经济预测专家 CLAIMS of clairvoyance, particularly when they come from economists, deserve a sceptical reception. Hal Varian, a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley who also happens to be Googles chief economist, has no such pretensions, but he does believe that data on internet searches can help predict certain kinds of economic statistics before they become available. 人们具有预见能力的这一说,尤其是经济学家的预见能力通常都会引起质疑。加州大学伯克利分校的经济学教授,谷歌公司首席经济学家Hal Varian表示,他没有如此的洞察力和预见力,但他相信在某些经济统计数据公布之前,网络搜索的数据能够帮助预测这些数据。 In a new paper written with Hyunyoung Choi, a colleague at Google, he argues that fluctuations in the frequency with which people search for certain words or phrases online can improve the accuracy of the econometric models used to predict, for example, retail-sales figures or house sales. Actual numbers for such things are usually available only with a lag. But Googles search data are updated every day, so they can in theory capture shifts in consumer behaviour before official numbers are released. Varian和谷歌的另一名同事Hyunyoung Choi最新发表了一篇论文,他表示对于人们在网上搜索的一些字词短语,其频率的变化可以提高经济计量模型预测零售销售或售房数据的准确性。这些确切销售数据通常是要滞后一段时间才能得到。但是谷歌搜索数据每天都在更新,因此理论上在官方数字出炉之前,们就把握住了消费者行为的变化。 These data are available through a site called Google Trends, which allows anyone who cares to do so to download an index of the aggregate volume of searches for particular terms or categories. Mr Varian and Mr Choi show that the addition of these search trends to econometric models improves the accuracy of their estimates. 人们可以在一个名叫谷歌趋势的网站上得到这些数据,并且可以下载特定条款或物品被搜索总量的指数。Varian和Choi表示,共同利用这些搜索趋势和经济计量模型就能够提高预测的准确性。 For example, using data on searches for trucks and SUVs to predict the monthly sales of motor vehicles reduces the average error by up to 18% compared with the predictions from a model that did not incorporate the search data. The volume of searches for Hong Kong carried out in countries like America, Britain, Australia and India also seems to predict eventual tourist arrivals to the territory from these countries rather well. 比如,与不用搜索数据的模型得出的预测相比,利用货车和SUV的搜索数据来预测汽车月销售量会减少高达18%的平均误差。在美国,英国,澳大利亚和印度等国进行的对香港的搜索似乎也能预测从这些国家到香港旅行的游客人数。 How widely could this idea be applied? For some things, like retail sales, the categories into which Google classifies its search-trend data correspond closely to what people may want to predict, such as the sales of a particular brand of car (see chart). For others, like sales of houses, things are less clear. It appears that searches for estate agents work better than those for home financing. But anything that makes the crystal ball less cloudy is welcome. 这一方法的应用有多广?对于一些事物,比如零售销售,某些种类(谷歌将搜索趋势数据划分到该种类)和人们期望预测的事物非常相关,比如某一种汽车品牌的销售。对于其它的项目,如房屋销售,情况就比较模糊。但对房地产经纪人的搜索似乎比对房屋抵押贷款机构的搜索更能清楚地说明房屋销售问题。无论如何,只要能使这个水晶球更加透明清晰,任何方法都是受人欢迎的。 How much will the financial crisis hurt Americas economic potential? 金融危机究竟会对美国的经济潜力造成多大损害? AMID the hubbub over a few less-bad-than-expected statistics, Americas economic debate has turned to the nature of the recovery. Optimists expect a vigorous rebound as confidence returns, pent-up demand is unleashed and massive government stimulus takes effect. Most observers, including this newspaper, are bracing for a long slog, as debt-laden consumers rebuild their savings, output growth remains weak and unemployment continues to rise. There is, however, something that eventually will have a much bigger impact on Americans prosperity than the slope of the recovery. That is the effect of the crisis on Americas potential rate of growth itself. 在对一些比预期稍好的数据的聒噪中,对美国经济的争论倒向了恢复的一边。乐观人士预计在信心回稳、抑制的需求得到释放以及政府大规模刺激方案取得成效的情况下,经济会有力的反弹。包括本报在内的多数观察家则认为慢慢前路仍充满艰险,因为深陷债务泥潭的消费者在重新建立他们的储蓄,出口增长依然疲软而且未就业人数继续上升。然而,一些东西最终对美国繁荣的影响要比经济复苏这一斜线大的多。那就是危机对美国潜在增长率的影响。 An economys long-term speed limit (its “trend” or “potential” rate of growth) is the pace at which GDP can expand without affecting unemployment and, hence, inflation. It is determined by growth in the supply of labor (the number of workers and how long they toil) along with the speed with which productivity improves. The pace of potential growth helps determine the sustainability of everything from public debt to the prices of shares. 一个经济体的长期速度限制(它的“趋势”或“潜在”增长率)是它维持GDP能够增长而又不影起未就业人数和通货膨胀变化的速度。它由劳动力供给(工人数量和工作时间)的增长与生产率提高的速度决定。潜在增长率的速度帮助决定了从公共债务到股票价格等的一切事物的可持续性。 Unfortunately, the outlook for Americas potential growth rate was darkening long before the financial crisis hit. The IT-induced productivity revolution, which sent potential output soaring at the end of the 1990s, has waned. More important, Americas labor supply is growing more slowly as the population ages, the share of women working has leveled off and that of students who work has fallen. Since 1991 the labor supply has risen at an average annual pace of 1.1%. Over the next decade the Congressional Budget Office expects a 0.6% annual increase. 不幸的是,早在金融危机袭来之前,美国的潜在增长率的前景就日趋暗淡。曾在90年代末使潜在前景飞涨的IT导向型生产力革命已经式微,更重要的是,美国的劳动力供给速度要远落后于人口老龄化的速度。参加工作的妇女所占的份额与之前持平,而学生的就业率在下降。自1991年起劳动力供给以年均1.1的速度增长。国会预算办公室预测未来10年的增长速度为0.6。 According to Robert Gordon, a productivity guru at Northwestern University, Americas trend rate of growth in 2008 was only 2.5%, the lowest rate in its history, and well below the 3-3.5% that many took for granted a few years ago. Without factoring in the financial crisis, Mr. Gordon expects potential growth to fall to 2.35% over the coming years. 据西北大学生产力专家Robert Gordon,称,美国2008年的增长率仅仅接近2.5,这是历史上的最低点,而且远低于多数人前些年认为理应达到的33.5。将金融危机排除后,Gordon先生预计未来几年的潜在增长率回跌落到2.35。 That alone is grim news. But has the Great Recession made things worse? In theory, it could do. Slumping investment may slow the pace of innovation. Soaring government debt could raise interest rates. Higher taxes, designed to reduce the debt, might dull incentives to work and invest. More regulation, in finance and beyond, could deter innovation. Workers skills may atrophy as a result of joblessness. On the plus side, well-targeted government spending on, say, infrastructure or education could boost potential output, while the huge wealth that Americans have lost may induce more of them to work for longer. 单独来看这是一个残酷的消息,然而是经济大萧条把事情弄得更糟吗?理论上讲,是的。暴跌的投资会减缓创新的速度。飚升的国债导致利率升高。旨在减少债务的更高额税金或许会降低工作和投资的动机。在金融与其它领域的更多监管会阻碍创新。作为失业的恶果,工人们的技能可能会退化。从正面上看,政府对基础设施和教育有的放矢的投资能够提升潜在产出,尽管美国人失去的巨额财富可能促使更多的人工作更长时间。 History sends mixed signals about how much these effects matter. Surprisingly, the 1930s bode well. Despite the deep slump in growth and investment, Americas potential growth rate is reckoned to have risen smartly during the decade, as innovations from nylon to synthetic rubber proliferated, while business processes were fundamentally overhauled. Alexander Field, an economist at Santa Clara University, has called the 1930s the “most technologically progressive” decade of the 20th century. 对于这些对此问题的影响有多大,历史给出了混杂的答案。令人吃惊的是,30年代预示了良好的形势。尽管增长与投资暴跌,但由于诸如尼龙和人造橡胶等创新的普及,美国的潜在增长率经计算在这10年中还有小幅上升。在此期间商业过程得到根本性的革新。Santa Clara大学的经济学家Alexander Field将30年代称之为20世纪“最技术革新”的十年。 In the modern era Sweden offers grounds for optimism. Its productivity growth accelerated after the early 1990s financial crash, in part because the government dealt swiftly with the banking mess. Japan, in contrast, saw productivity growth shrivel in the early 1990s. Several studies pin blame for that on Japans unwillingness to tackle its banking mess. But the process was not irreversible; Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute has argued that by the late 1990s Japans potential output had risen modestly, thanks to financial reform and broader deregulation. Nor is there much sign that Japans gaping budget deficits have crowded out private investment. Yields on long-term Japanese bonds slumped from 7% in 1990 to 1% in 2003, and are still only 1.45%, even as gross public debt is heading for 200% of GDP. 在现代,瑞典为乐观者提供了坚实土壤。它的生产力增长在90年代早期金融冲击后加速,这部分得益于政府对银行坏帐的及时处置。日本则与其恰恰相反,在90 年代早期它的生产力增长减缓。许多研究将批评矛头指向日本无意解决它的银行坏帐问题。但这个过程不是不可逆的。Peterson研究所的 Adam Posen 认为由于金融改革和更大规模的解除管制,日本的潜在产量在90年代后期有了适当上升。也没有什么迹象表明日本那令人吃惊的预算赤字对私人投资产生了挤出效应。日本长期债券收益从1990年的7跌落至2003年的1。即使公共负债的总额达到GDP的两倍,收益也只有1.45。 Is this cause for optimism about America? Possibly not. Compared with the 1930s, Americas workers are more specialized, which makes it harder to shift occupation; they are also more cushioned with social protection, which reduces the urgency to adapt. Workers are less flexible because the housing bust will prevent many from selling their houses to move to where the jobs are. JP Morgan estimates that Americas natural rate of joblessness may have risen from 4.75% to closer to 6%. 这是对美国持乐观精神的原因吗?可能不是。与30年代相比,美国工人们变得更加专业,这使得他们更难更换工作;社会保护措施给了他们更多的缓冲,这就降低了他们适应当前形势的迫切性。工人们并没有多少灵活性,因为房地产的破产将阻碍许多人卖掉房屋从而搬迁到能够找到工作的地方。JP Morgan 预计美国的自然失业率可能从4.75上升至接近6。 Todays i

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