人民币汇率与贸易差额关系分析.doc

5 人民币汇率与贸易差额关系分析5.1 人民币汇率与贸易差额数据表5.1 人民币汇率与贸易差额数据表时间人民币汇率中国CPI美国CPI贸易差额实际汇率NexrRexrlnNexrlnRexrlnTB贸易差额200506827.65 99.20 100.05 96.78 834.74 0.12 0.12 -2.11 -2.12 4.57 96.78 200507823.69 100.00 100.62 105.46 828.80 0.12 0.12 -2.11 -2.11 4.66 105.46 200508810.19 100.20 100.62 105.93 813.59 0.12 0.12 -2.09 -2.10 4.66 105.93 200509809.22 100.70 101.38 75.62 814.68 0.12 0.12 -2.09 -2.10 4.33 75.62 200510808.89 100.40 100.15 120.16 806.88 0.12 0.12 -2.09 -2.09 4.79 120.16 200511808.40 99.70 99.50 105.31 806.78 0.12 0.12 -2.09 -2.09 4.66 105.31 200512807.59 100.40 100.00 110.16 804.37 0.12 0.12 -2.09 -2.08 4.70 110.16 200601806.68 101.30 100.56 94.92 800.79 0.12 0.12 -2.09 -2.08 4.55 94.92 200602804.93 100.50 100.10 24.25 801.73 0.12 0.12 -2.09 -2.08 3.19 24.25 200603803.50 99.10 100.15 111.89 812.01 0.12 0.12 -2.08 -2.09 4.72 111.89 200604801.56 100.20 100.45 104.57 803.56 0.12 0.12 -2.08 -2.08 4.65 104.57 200605801.52 99.90 100.40 130.04 805.53 0.12 0.12 -2.08 -2.09 4.87 130.04 200606800.67 99.50 100.25 145.03 806.71 0.12 0.12 -2.08 -2.09 4.98 145.03 200607799.10 99.70 100.50 146.24 805.51 0.13 0.12 -2.08 -2.09 4.99 146.24 200608797.33 100.30 100.39 187.96 798.05 0.13 0.13 -2.08 -2.08 5.24 187.96 200609793.68 100.50 99.61 153.00 786.65 0.13 0.13 -2.07 -2.06 5.03 153.00 200610790.32 100.10 99.46 238.30 785.27 0.13 0.13 -2.07 -2.06 5.47 238.30 200611786.52 100.30 100.10 229.28 784.95 0.13 0.13 -2.06 -2.06 5.43 229.28 200612782.38 101.40 100.54 209.97 775.74 0.13 0.13 -2.06 -2.05 5.35 209.97 200701778.98 100.70 100.13 158.81 774.57 0.13 0.13 -2.05 -2.05 5.07 158.81 200702775.46 101.00 100.44 237.56 771.16 0.13 0.13 -2.05 -2.04 5.47 237.56 200703773.90 99.70 100.52 68.71 780.27 0.13 0.13 -2.05 -2.05 4.23 68.71 200704772.47 99.90 100.32 168.46 775.72 0.13 0.13 -2.04 -2.05 5.13 168.46 200705767.04 100.30 100.43 224.74 768.03 0.13 0.13 -2.04 -2.04 5.41 224.74 200706763.30 100.40 100.17 269.10 761.55 0.13 0.13 -2.03 -2.03 5.60 269.10 200707758.05 100.90 100.22 243.57 752.94 0.13 0.13 -2.03 -2.02 5.50 243.57 200708757.53 101.20 100.01 249.74 748.62 0.13 0.13 -2.02 -2.01 5.52 249.74 200709752.58 100.30 100.40 238.06 753.33 0.13 0.13 -2.02 -2.02 5.47 238.06 200710750.12 100.30 100.27 270.51 749.90 0.13 0.13 -2.02 -2.01 5.60 270.51 200711742.33 100.70 100.80 262.81 743.07 0.13 0.13 -2.00 -2.01 5.57 262.81 200712736.76 101.00 100.33 226.87 731.87 0.14 0.14 -2.00 -1.99 5.42 226.87 200801724.78 101.20 100.37 194.66 718.84 0.14 0.14 -1.98 -1.97 5.27 194.66 200802716.01 102.60 100.23 85.55 699.47 0.14 0.14 -1.97 -1.95 4.45 85.55 200803707.52 99.30 100.39 134.07 715.29 0.14 0.14 -1.96 -1.97 4.90 134.07 200804700.07 100.10 100.26 166.68 701.19 0.14 0.14 -1.95 -1.95 5.12 166.68 200805697.24 99.60 100.55 202.10 703.89 0.14 0.14 -1.94 -1.95 5.31 202.10 200806689.71 99.80 100.93 210.00 697.52 0.14 0.14 -1.93 -1.94 5.35 210.00 200807683.76 100.10 100.84 252.78 688.81 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.93 5.53 252.78 200808685.15 99.90 99.85 286.94 684.81 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.92 5.66 286.94 200809683.07 100.00 100.03 293.67 683.27 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.92 5.68 293.67 200810683.16 99.70 99.08 352.39 678.91 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.92 5.86 352.39 200811682.86 99.20 98.20 400.90 675.98 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.91 5.99 400.90 200812684.24 99.80 99.26 389.80 680.54 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.92 5.97 389.80 200901683.82 100.90 100.29 391.09 679.69 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.92 5.97 391.09 200902683.57 100.00 100.43 48.41 686.51 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.93 3.88 48.41 200903683.41 99.70 99.89 185.61 684.71 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.92 5.22 185.61 200904683.12 99.80 100.08 131.35 685.04 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.92 4.88 131.35 200905682.45 99.70 100.11 133.89 685.26 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.92 4.90 133.89 200906683.32 99.50 100.71 82.52 691.63 0.15 0.14 -1.92 -1.93 4.41 82.52 200907683.20 100.00 100.10 106.30 683.88 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.92 4.67 106.30 200908683.22 100.50 100.37 157.12 682.34 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.92 5.06 157.12 200909682.89 100.40 100.16 129.32 681.26 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.92 4.86 129.32 200910382.75 99.90 100.21 239.87 383.94 0.26 0.26 -1.34 -1.35 5.48 239.87 200911682.74 100.30 100.23 190.93 682.26 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.92 5.25 190.93 200912682.79 101.80 100.17 184.30 671.86 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.90 5.22 184.30 201001682.73 101.50 102.63 139.60 690.33 0.15 0.14 -1.92 -1.93 4.94 139.60 201002682.70 102.70 102.14 73.37 678.98 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.92 4.30 73.37 201003682.64 102.40 102.31 -74.08 682.04 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.92 4.31 74.08 201004682.62 102.80 102.24 14.10 678.90 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.92 2.65 14.10 201005682.74 103.10 102.02 194.49 675.59 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.91 5.27 194.49 201006681.65 102.90 101.05 201.86 669.39 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.90 5.31 201.86 201007677.75 103.30 101.24 285.44 664.23 0.15 0.15 -1.91 -1.89 5.65 285.44 201008679.01 103.50 101.15 197.56 663.59 0.15 0.15 -1.92 -1.89 5.29 197.56 201009674.62 103.60 101.14 165.63 658.60 0.15 0.15 -1.91 -1.88 5.11 165.63 201010667.32 104.40 101.17 268.06 646.67 0.15 0.15 -1.90 -1.87 5.59 268.06 201011665.58 105.10 101.14 222.94 640.50 0.15 0.16 -1.90 -1.86 5.41 222.94 201012665.15 104.60 101.50 126.08 645.44 0.15 0.15 -1.89 -1.86 4.84 126.08 201101660.27 104.90 101.63 58.25 639.69 0.15 0.16 -1.89 -1.86 4.06 58.25 201102658.31 104.90 102.11 -78.22 640.80 0.15 0.16 -1.88 -1.86 4.36 78.22 201103656.62 105.40 102.70 -1.39 639.80 0.15 0.16 -1.88 -1.86 0.33 1.39 201104652.92 105.30 103.20 112.60 639.90 0.15 0.16 -1.88 -1.86 4.72 112.60 201105649.88 105.50 103.60 129.95 638.18 0.15 0.16 -1.87 -1.85 4.87 129.95 201106647.78 106.40 103.60 221.94 630.73 0.15 0.16 -1.87 -1.84 5.40 221.94 201107646.14 106.50 103.60 303.64 628.55 0.15 0.16 -1.87 -1.84 5.72 303.64 201108640.90 106.20 103.80 178.26 626.42 0.16 0.16 -1.86 -1.83 5.18 178.26 201109638.33 106.10 103.90 145.25 625.09 0.16 0.16 -1.85 -1.83 4.98 145.25 201110635.66 105.50 103.50 170.83 623.61 0.16 0.16 -1.85 -1.83 5.14 170.83 201111634.08 104.20 103.40 146.27 629.21 0.16 0.16 -1.85 -1.84 4.99 146.27 201112632.81 104.10 103.00 165.17 626.12 0.16 0.16 -1.85 -1.83 5.11 165.17 201201631.68 104.50 102.90 272.78 622.01 0.16 0.16 -1.84 -1.83 5.61 272.78 201202630.00 103.20 102.90 -314.8628.17 0.16 0.16 -1.84 -1.84 5.75 314.83 201203630.81 103.60 102.70 53.50 625.33 0.16 0.16 -1.84 -1.83 3.98 53.50 201204629.66 103.40 102.30 184.30 622.96 0.16 0.16 -1.84 -1.83 5.22 184.30 201205630.62 103.00 101.70 187.00 622.66 0.16 0.16 -1.84 -1.83 5.23 187.00 201206631.78 102.20 101.66 317.20 628.44 0.16 0.16 -1.84 -1.84 5.76 317.20 201207632.35 101.80 101.41 251.50 629.93 0.16 0.16 -1.84 -1.84 5.53 251.50 201208634.04 102.00 101.69 266.60 632.11 0.16 0.16 -1.85 -1.84 5.59 266.60 5.2 数据的实证分析建立回归模型lnTB=C+lnNexr和lnTB=C+lnRexr。将上述数据中的lnNexr与lnRexr分别与lnTB代入Eviews中，得到数据如下：1、对于模型lnTB=C+lnNexrDependent Variable: lnTBMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/24/13 Time: 18:23Sample(adjusted): 2006:05 2012:08Included observations: 76 after adjusting endpointsVariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. C5.8358541.7012883.4302570.0010lnNexr0.4385620.8637820.5077230.6132R-squared0.003471 Mean dependent var4.973329Adjusted R-squared-0.009995 S.D. dependent var0.796159S.E. of regression0.800128 Akaike info criterion2.417872Sum squared resid47.37511 Schwarz criterion2.479207Log likelihood-89.87915 F-statistic0.257783Durbin-Watson stat1.344031 Prob(F-statistic)0.613158得出lnTB=5.835854+0.438562*lnNexr拟合优度检验：R-squared=0.003471,Adjusted R-squared=-0.009995;由上图可知：拟合优度R=0.003471，修正的可决系数为R=-0.009995这说明模型对样本拟合度非常低,说明lnTB与lnNexr不相关。2、对于模型lnTB=C+lnRexrDependent Variable: lnTBMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/24/13 Time: 18:25Sample(adjusted): 200506 200592Included observations: 87 after adjusting endpointsVariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. C6.2384341.4401934.3316650.0000lnRexr0.6315980.7392330.8543960.3953R-squared0.008515 Mean dependent var5.009964Adjusted R-squared-0.003150 S.D. dependent var0.769269S.E. of regression0.770479 Akaike