“热钱”可控在人民币改革过程中.doc

Hot Money controllable as yuan reform proceed“热钱”可控，在人民币改革过程中China will be able to keep inflows of speculative capital under control even if the latest clarifications on its yuan policy trigger any influx of hot money, a former central bank adviser has said.即使因近日中国关于人民币政策的声明引起大量 “热钱”的涌入，中国仍旧能够保证投机资本的流入在可控范围内，央行前顾问说。The Peoples Bank of China, the central bank, said in a statement on Saturday that it will proceed further with the reform of the yuan exchange rate regime to enhance its rate flexibility. The move has been interpreted as the start of allowing the yuan to rise against the US dollar after it remained stable for 23 months.中国央行-中国人民银行，在上周六一则声明中表示，中国将继续推进人民币汇率机制改革以进一步增强汇率的灵活性。此举已被解释为在人民币保持23个月稳定后，中国开始允许人民币升值。On Sunday, the central bank said in a statement that it will maintain a stable exchange rate and there will be no drastic fluctuation in the value of the yuan. There will be no one-off adjustment in the value of the yuan and the fluctuation of its value must be controllable to prevent market forces from causing excessive swings, it said. 央行在上周日的声明中说，将会保持汇率的稳定，不会出现大幅波动。不会对人民币升值实行一次性调整，其波动将在可控范围内，以免因波动幅度过大造成市场动荡，它说。The basis for large-scale appreciation of the yuan exchange rate does not exist, it said. “大幅调整人民币汇率升值人民币的基础条件不存在”它说。The statement emphasized the yuan be pegged to a basket of currencies, adding that the US dollar should not be the only gauge for judging the renminbi exchange rate level. 声明还强调，人民币将挂钩多种货币，并补充说，美元不应该成为衡量人民币汇率水平的唯一尺度。Keeping the rate at a reasonable, balanced level will contribute to economic stability and help restructure the Chinese economy with greater emphasis on services and consumption, it said. 保持汇率在一个“合理、均衡的水平”将促进经济的稳定，并有助于中国经济转型，使之更侧重于服务业和消费，它说。The stance is clear: The yuan will enter a track of gradual appreciation, said Zhang Xiaojing, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.“我们立场是明确的：人民币将进入一个逐步升值的轨道，” 社会科学院经济学家张晓静说。Although depreciation cannot be ruled out given the falling euro, the yuan could rise in the short term. “不过由于欧元下跌导致其贬值不可避免，人民币值在短期内可能升值。”Still, the approach has triggered concern that more speculative capital, or hot money, will flow into the country to gain from any continual appreciation of the yuan.而且，随着该情况的临近已引起更多投机资本或“热钱”的关注，并将流入国内以期在人民币不断升值中获利。The possibility is there, said Yu Yongding, a former member of the central banks monetary policy committee. “这种可能性是存在的，” 中国人民银行货币政策委员会前成员余永定说。But we should not panic and stop allowing the yuan to get more flexible simply because of that; we can keep it under control by enhancing cross-border capital control, Yu, who is also head of the China Society of World Economics, told China Daily.“但我们不用惊慌，不用因此而停止使人民币变得更加灵活的步伐。我们可以通过加强跨境资本流动调控对其进行控制”余这样告诉中国日报，他也是中国世界经济学会会长。More flexibility does not mean one-way appreciation, he said. It would be a two-way movement, which would help thwart currency speculation.“更多的灵活性并不意味着只是一味地升值货币，”他说。“这是一个双向的运动，有助于抵御货币投机。”The countrys decision to shift to a basket of currencies as a reference for the yuans value will also give policymakers more room to maneuver in their effort to control cross-border capital flows, he said.国家作出的由参照单一货币转变为参照多国货币来确定人民币币值的决定，使得政府在努力控制跨境资本流动的过程中有更多的回旋余地，他说。The gradualist way of currency appreciation, while causing more inflows of speculative capital, will help control such adverse capital movement, analysts said.这种渐进式的货币升值方式，尽管同时会造成更多的投机资本流入，但对控制这种不利的资本流动是有利的，分析师说。If the annual appreciation of the currency can be kept below 3 percent, it will make it hard for speculators to profit, since they will have to pay dual-way transaction costs that will be close to what they can gain from a rising yuan, said Zhou Shijian, senior economist at the China-US relations research center of Tsinghua University. If the yuan rises, it must be narrow-floating.如果货币升值每年可保持在3%以下，投机者将难以获利，因为他们要付出的双向交易成本就已接近他们将从人民币升值中获得的利益，中国清华大学中美关系研究中心高级经济师周世俭说。“如果人民币要升值，就必须小幅浮动。”A hasty, swift appreciation of the yuan will make it difficult to control an influx of hot money and endanger the Chinese economy, Zhou said, citing widespread trade sector bankruptcies and job losses in the country from October 2007 to July 2008, when the yuan appreciated by 11 percent against the dollar, compared with about 8 percent in the previous two and a half years.仓促而迅速的进行人民币升值将使“热钱”变得难以控制，而且还会危害中国经济，周说，并援引了从2007年10月到2008年7月人民币迅速升值11%导致国内贸易领域的出现大规模破产倒闭并引起大量失业的例子。而较之前近两年半人民币才升值了8%。By claiming that there would be no one-off revaluation this time, the authorities have obviously learnt from that experience, Zhou said.“显然政府已经吸取了之前的教训，所以这次声明不会对人民币升值进行一次性调整，”周说。The yuan has risen by 21 percent against the greenback since 2005. Economists said that if the currency rises gradually, it will benefit the Chinese economy, although it could also bring about uncertainties as the lingering European debt crisis will dampen Chinese exports to Europe, Chinas largest trade partner.自2005年以来，人民币相对于美钞已升值了21%。经济学家说，如果采取使货币逐步升值的方式，将有利于中国经济发展，尽管这可能会带来一些不确定因素，尤其是在中国最大贸易伙伴-欧洲发生债务危机且迟迟不去削弱中国对欧出口的情况下。A rising yuan will also make Chinese imports cheaper, they said. China is now a major importer of such commodities as oil and iron ore. 人民币升值也使中国的进口更加便宜，他们说。尤其是中国现在成为了石油、铁矿石等商此类品的主要进口国。Similarly, the countrys economic restructuring could accelerate toward a services- and consumption-driven economy.同样，也将有助于国家经济加速向服务业和消费驱动型经济转变。In the short term, efforts to control inflation will be beneficial as well, said Nouriel Roubini, an economist and chairman of economics consultancy Roubini Global Economics. 在短期内，对努力控制通货膨胀也是有利的，鲁比尼全球经济咨询公司主席、经济学家努里尔鲁比尼说。Given the context that (Chinas) inflation is rising