人口踩踏模型.doc

数学建模Analysis of in crowded stampede accident of large-scale activitiesAbstractTo solve the problem of crowded stampede accident of large-scale activities in China. First we will solve our problem. How to reduce crowded stampede accident of large-scale activities in China? We through method of fuzzy synthetic evaluation of crowded stampede accident of large-scale activities in China to solve why accident in crowded stampede . Establishment comprehensive evaluation of crowded stampede accident of large-scale activities based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is given when public places are too many people in a stampede of probability, the forming conditions that the analysis.Besides we will model 2 buildings to settlement it. On the one hand, we choose the normal distribution, many crowded stampede accidentspopulation is follow normal distribution, so we decide to choose it. Then people follow uniform distribution, such as school, supermarket, hospital and bus. Its always being in our life. model 2 solve people in crowded stampede accident of large-scale activities distribution.Last model a building about genetic algorithm. We study about many crowded stampede accidents population is follow normal distribution, why we dont choose crowded stampede accidents population is follow uniform distribution? Because crowded stampede accidents population is follow uniform distribution hardly have Casualties, we dont choose it. We through genetic algorithm, find a relation that population density decline, so we make a equal density contour about population density. Whats more, we through equal density contour calculation. Finding maximum coverage about channels. Solving how to make people leave place soonest. model 4 could estimation of population distribution, then key department can decide to key measures that To impede the force or movement of crowded stampede accident of large-scale activities.symbolic solutionpopulation factor index（）environmental quality objective（） physical index（） information factors（） transportation factor.（）membership matrix gene coding 1 introductionCrowds swarming in such a confined space will come into conflict with crowds swarming. So we should build a programmer for emergency prevention and preparedness that people are located.Inspired by all these researches, we use Simulation model to reach our expectation. In this paper, our analysis is based on the real situation of ShangHai. We focus on four objections: Analysis of the Cause of Stampede Accident in Crowd-Gathered Place about reasons. The statistical errors of the number of stampede accident in crowd-gathered place There are several alternatives to population. Genetic Algorithm Model of Optimal Evacuation Routes and Departure Time Choice in a Dynamic SystemConsidering these entire goal, we simulate the scene where the cause of stampede accidentin ShangHai, as a result, we can build a genetic algorithm model based on the cause of stampede accident in ShangHai by doing that we can give the stampede accidentmanager some advices.2 Problem AnalysisCrowds swarming in such a confined space will come into conflict with crowds swarming. So we should build a programmer for emergency prevention and preparedness that people are located.To start our study, we first should focus on Analysis of the Cause of Stampede Accident in Crowd-Gathered Place reasons. The statistical errors of the number of stampede accident in crowd-gathered place There are several alternatives to injured victims. Genetic Algorithm Model of Optimal Evacuation Routes and Departure Time Choice in a Dynamic SystemFrom injured victims and population, the bigger value of how to draw up a solution,the better. However, If population is too large, choosing a best action plan is very important. Whats more, it will affect the quality of visitor wildlife experience. In condition, the capacity of the square is limited, so our job is to find a good solution to solve these entire problems.3 Solving the problem step by step3.1 Overview the solution of basic model step 1: In our paper, we first consider the problem: Analysis of the Cause of Stampede Accident in Crowd-Gathered Place reasons step 2: A further step, we focus on There are several alternatives to injured victims step 3: next step, we focus on Genetic Algorithm Model of Optimal Evacuation Routes and Departure Time Choice in a Dynamic System step 4: The final step we test the robustness of our basic model.4 Basic Modelstep 1: In our paper, we first consider the problem: Analysis of the Cause of Stampede Accident in Crowd-Gathered Place reasons4.1 Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methodWe choose 12 indicators, such as population factor index（）, environmental quality objective（）, physical index（）, information factors（） and transportation factor.（）We make a fuzzy comparison matrix of all index.population factor index=(0.4，0.25，0.15，0.2)environmental quality objective=(0.15，0.35，0.5)physical indexinformation factors=(0.3，0.7)transportation factor=(0.4，0.6)Two-level fuzzy synthesis evaluationAccording to the maximum membership degree principle, the bund can be thought of the case is very easy to stampede. Similarly used fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is given when public places are too many people in a stampede of probability, the forming conditions that the analysis.model sensitivity analysis By the weight distribution, to crush the reasons influence the largest is the crowd density indexTwo-level fuzzy synthesis evaluationBasing maximum membership degree principle0=bestv bestv=fmax;%到目前为止最优适应度值 bvalxx=bval(indmax,:);%到目前为止最佳位串 optxx=xx(indmax,:);%到目前为止最优参数 end Bfit1(ii)=bestv; % 存储每代的最优适应度%遗传操作开始%轮盘赌选择 for i=1:(N-1) r=rand; tmp=find(r=q); newbval(i,:)=bval(tmp(1),:); end newbval(N,:)=bvalxx;%最优保留 bval=newbval;%单点交叉for i=1:2:(N-1) cc=rand; if ccpc point=ceil(rand*(2*L-1);%取得一个1到2L-1的整数 ch=bval(i,:); bval(i,point+1:2*L)=bval(i+1,point+1:2*L); bval(i+1,point+1:2*L)=ch(1,point+1:2*L); endend bval(N,:)=bvalxx;%最优保留%位点变异mm=rand(N,2*L)pm;%N行mm(N,:)=zeros(1,2*L);%最后一行不变异，强制赋0bval(mm)=1-bval(mm);end%输出plot(Bfit1);% 绘制最优适应度进化曲线bestv %输出最优适