证券投资的宏观分析

证券投资的宏观分析证券投资的宏观分析 宏观经济分析是证券投资分析的关键，宏观经济决定了证券市场的基本走势，只有正确判断当前的宏观经济形势才能做出正确的投资决策。 一、一般宏观经济分析的主要内容有: 1.我国近阶段经济总体发展状况。经济外部环境对一个公司的利益影响相当大，如果一个国家的经济环境不景气，覆巢之下安有完卵，由于各个行业之间的相互传导影响大部分企业的盈利能力都将比较艰难，证券投资自然应该谨慎，降低投资规模，避免投资一些业绩下降较快的公司;相反，如果经济处于扩张状态，公司和行业的好消息不断，自然证券市场上会有更多更好的盈利机会，应该积极挖掘投资机会，加大投资力度，取得较丰厚的投资收益。 2.近阶段通货膨胀预期还是通货紧缩预期,不仅仅因为通货膨胀将直接地、较为深刻地影响到一些行业，如有色资源类企业将在通胀中获益，相比之下，原材料成本较高的制造企业则因为高成本而利润微薄，所以通货膨胀将引起收入和财富的再分配，扭曲商品相对价格。同时，控制通货膨胀也是政府宏观调控的主要目标，通胀将会关系到政府宏观调控政策的取向，政府可能采取收缩流动性，扩大IPO数量，减少财政支出等政策措施，从而影响到证券市场上的资金量。 3.国家的经济发展战略规划。国家发展规划将直接关系到我国ith. 3, fill embankment before base and completed the inspection and acceptance of works. 4, before the requirement level elevation sign layout according to the drawing, every nail on the level of a certain distance, elevation of forklift parts according to the design requirements set. 5, according to the site conditions determine the routes of earth-moving machinery, vehicles, and prior checks, reinforce and widen if necessary and other preparatory work. (B) construction processes and methods; 1, process: before filling, and statistics to the existing buildings and trees, the soil on the cave or on the surface of roots, trash and other debris to be cleared. 2, have the soil inspection work. Species of fill, size, check there is no debris, and soil moisture content control within the design range. Tier 3, fill casting: each layer thickness according to soil, density to determine requirements and equipment performance. 4, as needed when rolling, wheel (RAM) track lapping each other, prevent leaks RAM leakage. Aspect is high, filling segments. Each layer into slope-shaped seams, ground track about overlapping 0.5-1.0M, is less than the distance from the upper and lower joints 1M. 5, fill out the base surface, we will do the edge compaction quality assurance work. After the earth-moving, does not require trimming of the slope would be preferable to filling edge fill 0.5 m wide called slope rides on and shoot, wide filling 0.2m. 6, in machinery construction not rolling the filling position, manual blade filled with frog-type ramming machine or diesel hierarchical dynamic compaction-compacting. 9, rain during construction: (1) in the rain during embankment construction, we will be completed as soon as possible a continuous; face do not seek too large, hierarchical segment-by-film basis, important or special backfill, as completed by the rain. (2) in the rain at the time of construction, check all the rain未来经济的发展方向，包括哪些行业将会得到政策支持，政府的经济工作重点在哪个行业。例如，在2011年3月11日日本大地震之前，我国在沿海一带大面积规划布局核电站建设项目，自然长期利好核电行业，一些核能源概念都走出好几年的长牛行情。但是因为日本大地震造成和辐射污染严重，国内一些未建的核电站项目被全而停止，对核电概念的股票是绝对利空的，应该及时清盘该类股票，观望为止。 4.国际市场情况，一方面因为经济全球化，国际间经济往来密切相关，如果欧美国家经济繁荣，仅有利于我国产品出口，而且也利好海运行业，而且通过产业链影响到其他行业。另一方面，国际资本场也在相互联动，如果欧美及亚洲其他国家的股市不断上涨，我国的股票大盘指数也将随大势不断攀升 。 所以，在实际操作中，宏观经济面的判断极其重要，我们应该更多地关注这些宏观经济面的变化。 二、宏观经济运行对证券市场的影响通常通过那些途径, 1(公司经营效益。无论从长期看还是从短期看，宏观经济环境是影响公司生存、发展的最基本因素。公司的经济效益会随着宏观经济运行周期、宏观经济政策、利率水平和物价水平等宏观经济因素的变动而变动。如果宏观经济运行趋好，企业总体盈利水平提高，证券市场的市值自然上涨;如果政府采取强有力的宏观调控政策，紧缩银根，企业的投资和经营会受到影响，盈利下降，ith. 3, fill embankment before base and completed the inspection and acceptance of works. 4, before the requirement level elevation sign layout according to the drawing, every nail on the level of a certain distance, elevation of forklift parts according to the design requirements set. 5, according to the site conditions determine the routes of earth-moving machinery, vehicles, and prior checks, reinforce and widen if necessary and other preparatory work. (B) construction processes and methods; 1, process: before filling, and statistics to the existing buildings and trees, the soil on the cave or on the surface of roots, trash and other debris to be cleared. 2, have the soil inspection work. Species of fill, size, check there is no debris, and soil moisture content control within the design range. Tier 3, fill casting: each layer thickness according to soil, density to determine requirements and equipment performance. 4, as needed when rolling, wheel (RAM) track lapping each other, prevent leaks RAM leakage. Aspect is high, filling segments. Each layer into slope-shaped seams, ground track about overlapping 0.5-1.0M, is less than the distance from the upper and lower joints 1M. 5, fill out the base surface, we will do the edge compaction quality assurance work. After the earth-moving, does not require trimming of the slope would be preferable to filling edge fill 0.5 m wide called slope rides on and shoot, wide filling 0.2m. 6, in machinery construction not rolling the filling position, manual blade filled with frog-type ramming machine or diesel hierarchical dynamic compaction-compacting. 9, rain during construction: (1) in the rain during embankment construction, we will be completed as soon as possible a continuous; face do not seek too large, hierarchical segment-by-film basis, important or special backfill, as completed by the rain. (2) in the rain at the time of construction, check all the rain证券市场市值就可能缩水。 2(居民收入水平。在经济周期处于上升阶段或在提高居民收入政策的作用下，居民收入水平提高，将会在一定程度上拉动消费需求，从而增加相关企业的经济效益。另外，居民收入水平的提高，也会直接促进证券市场投资需求。 3(资金成本。当国家经济政策发生变化，如采取调整利率水平、实施消费信贷政策、征收利息税等政策，居民、单位的资金持有成本将随之变化。如利率水平的降低和征收利息税的政策，将会促使部分资金由银行储蓄变为投资，从而影响证券市场的走向。 4. 投资者对股价的预期。投资者对股价的预期，也就是投资者的信心，是宏观经济影响证券市场走势的重要途径。当宏观经济趋好时，投资者预期公司效益和自身的收入水平会上升，证券市场自然人气旺盛，从而推动市场平均价格走高;反之，则会令投资者对证券市场信心下降。 三、宏观经济运行对证券市场的影响 宏观经济因素是影响证券市场长期走势的唯一因素。宏观经济因素对投资领域的影响是全方位的，主要体现在两个方面，一是宏观经济政策的调整对证券市场产生重大影响。二是宏观经济的运行决定了证券市场的总体运行态势。下面我将结合我国宏观经济的政策和宏观经济的运行周期两方面论述宏观经济因素如何对证券投资市场产生影响。 1. 利率对证券市场的影响。 ith. 3, fill embankment before base and completed the inspection and acceptance of works. 4, before the requirement level elevation sign layout according to the drawing, every nail on the level of a certain distance, elevation of forklift parts according to the design requirements set. 5, according to the site conditions determine the routes of earth-moving machinery, vehicles, and prior checks, reinforce and widen if necessary and other preparatory work. (B) construction processes and methods; 1, process: before filling, and statistics to the existing buildings and trees, the soil on the cave or on the surface of roots, trash and other debris to be cleared. 2, have the soil inspection work. Species of fill, size, check there is no debris, and soil moisture content control within the design range. Tier 3, fill casting: each layer thickness according to soil, density to determine requirements and equipment performance. 4, as needed when rolling, wheel (RAM) track lapping each other, prevent leaks RAM leakage. Aspect is high, filling segments. Each layer into slope-shaped seams, ground track about overlapping 0.5-1.0M, is less than the distance from the upper and lower joints 1M. 5, fill out the base surface, we will do the edge compaction quality assurance work. After the earth-moving, does not require trimming of the slope would be preferable to filling edge fill 0.5 m wide called slope rides on and shoot, wide filling 0.2m. 6, in machinery construction not rolling the filling position, manual blade filled with frog-type ramming machine or diesel hierarchical dynamic compaction-compacting. 9, rain during construction: (1) in the rain during embankment construction, we will be completed as soon as possible a continuous; face do not seek too large, hierarchical segment-by-film basis, important or special backfill, as completed by the rain. (2) in the rain at the time of construction, check all the rain利率水准的变动对股市行情的影响最为直接和迅速。一般利率与股票反向。利率下降时，股市上涨。利率上升时，股市下降。在 08年10月9日 ，央行存款利率为5.58%(5年年利率)，当时沪市指数为2100点左右，而后央行存款利率一调再调 08年10月30日 为5.13， 11月27日 为3.87， 12月23日 再次调整为3.60。那么股市中表现出明显反应，股市从最低点1600点左右涨至今天的近2900点。从这一变化，足以证明利率对股市直接的影响。究其原因，利率上升公司借贷成本增加，公司因融资能力相对减弱不得不选择缩小缩小生产规模，导致公司利润下降股票价值因此下降。同时，利率的上升使得场内资金转向银行和债券，也是导致股市下跌的原因。反之，利率下降，股市上涨也是同样的道理 2. 汇率变动对证券市场的影响。 近年来，随着我国经济的不断开放，证券市场国际化程度不断提高，证券市场受汇率的影响也越来越大。2005年7月至今，人民币汇率一直在下调，从人民币汇率走势图来看(见图1)，2007年12月至2008年12月汇率下调幅度最大，2007年12月的汇率为美元兑人民币7.3:1，当时的上证指数为5200点左右。一年后，2008年12月，汇率为6.83(之后汇率一致在6.83附近)而大盘在1600左右，大盘缩水3600余点。不得不承认其中汇率下调是大盘大跌的原因之一。汇率下调，人民币升值，对于股市来说，本国产品竞争力减弱，出口型企业利润受损，拉动经ith. 3, fill embankment before base and completed the inspection and acceptance of works. 4, before the requirement level elevation sign layout according to the drawing, every nail on the level of a certain distance, elevation of forklift parts according to the design requirements set. 5, according to the site conditions determine the routes of earth-moving machinery, vehicles, and prior checks, reinforce and widen if necessary and other preparatory work. (B) construction processes and methods; 1, process: before filling, and statistics to the existing buildings and trees, the soil on the cave or on the surface of roots, trash and other debris to be cleared. 2, have the soil inspection work. Species of fill, size, check there is no debris, and soil moisture content control within the design range. Tier 3, fill casting: each layer thickness according to soil, density to determine requirements and equipment performance. 4, as needed when rolling, wheel (RAM) track lapping each other, prevent leaks RAM leakage. Aspect is high, filling segments. Each layer into slope-shaped seams, ground track about overlapping 0.5-1.0M, is less than the distance from the upper and lower joints 1M. 5, fill out the base surface, we will do the edge compaction quality assurance work. After the earth-moving, does not require trimming of the slope would be preferable to filling edge fill 0.5 m wide called slope rides on and shoot, wide filling 0.2m. 6, in machinery construction not rolling the filling position, manual blade filled with frog-type ramming machine or diesel hierarchical dynamic compaction-compacting. 9, rain during construction: (1) in the rain during embankment construction, we will be completed as soon as possible a continuous; face do not seek too large, hierarchical segment-by-film basis, important or special backfill, as completed by the rain. (2) in the rain at the time of construction, check all the rain济的三驾马车其中一驾陷入困境，股市自然下跌。 3. 货币政策对证券市场的影响。 国家的货币政策对证券市场的影响非常大。自金融危机以来，我国采用扩张性货币政策。如 3月18日 ，中国人民银行、中国银行业监督管理委员会联合印发关于进一步加强信贷结构调整，促进国民经济平稳较快发展的指导意见,要求人民银行系统和各金融机构深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院关于进一步扩大内需、促进经济增长的十项措施和国务院办公厅关于当前金融促进经济发展的若干意见精神，认真执行适度宽松的货币政策，促进国民经济平稳较快发展。国务院总理温家宝今日考察湖南时也表示进一步执行宽松的货币政策，这意味着一方面社会货币供给总量扩大，使更多资金进场，对证券市场交易有着积极的影响。另一方面，货币政策宽松，利率降低投资者成本也相对降低，上市公司运营成本也降低。自2009年3月以来，股市明显上涨近30%，可以说得益于宽松的货币政策。 4. 财政政策对证券市场的影响 财政政策对证券市场产生一定的影响，金融危机以来政府不断提高转移支付水平，创造更多的社会福利条件。如出口退税，家电下乡政策。这些优惠政策会是一部分人的收入水平和购买力水平提高，从而增加社会总需求，带动经济的发展，从而间接促进证券指数上升。 在金融危机爆发后，我国政府出台了庞大的4万亿投资计划，国务院批准了十个重点产业的调整和振兴规ith. 3, fill embankment before base and completed the inspection and acceptance of works. 4, before the requirement level elevation sign layout according to the drawing, every nail on the level of a certain distance, elevation of forklift parts according to the design requirements set. 5, according to the site conditions determine the routes of earth-moving machinery, vehicles, and prior checks, reinforce and widen if necessary and other preparatory work. (B) construction processes and methods; 1, process: before filling, and statistics to the existing buildings and trees, the soil on the cave or on the surface of roots, trash and other debris to be cleared. 2, have the soil inspection work. Species of fill, size, check there is no debris, and soil moisture content control within the design range. Tier 3, fill casting: each layer thickness according to soil, density to determine requirements and equipment performance. 4, as needed when rolling, wheel (RAM) track lapping each other, prevent leaks RAM leakage. Aspect is high, filling segments. Each layer into slope-shaped seams, ground track about overlapping 0.5-1.0M, is less than the distance from the upper and lower joints 1M. 5, fill out the base surface, we will do the edge compaction quality assurance work. After the earth-moving, does not require trimming of the slope would be preferable to filling edge fill 0.5 m wide called slope rides on and shoot, wide filling 0.2m. 6, in machinery construction not rolling the filling position, manual blade filled with frog-type ramming machine or diesel hierarchical dynamic compaction-compacting. 9, rain during construction: (1) in the rain during embankment construction, we will be completed as soon as possible a continuous; face do not seek too large, hierarchical segment-by-film basis, important or special backfill, as completed by the rain. (2) in the rain at the time of construction, check all the rain划。这样宏伟的计划对社会总需求产生的乘数效应和挤出效应，可以直接刺激经济。从而刺激股市，4万亿计划带动水泥、钢铁、建材等行业的发展。其中一只题材股600293三峡新材，自计划出台后已经上涨近一倍。 5. 国际金融市场环境对证券市场的影响 国际金融市场对我国证券市场有一定影响，主要通过以下两种途径:(1)国际金融市场相对于我国证券市场能较好反应宏观经济变化，国际金融市场动荡将影响我国的出口经济，从而影响我国的证券市场。(2)国际金融市场的变化将影响境外投资者QFII等尤其对B股市场。因为B股市场的投资者大部分是境外投资者，所以国际金融市场的动荡通过影响境外投资者的投资行为，如境外投资者调整原有投资组合、改变投资方向、套现资金等投资行为的改变，从而对B股证券产生影响。 综上，证券市场受到宏观经济政策的影响是显而易见的。 由此可见，财政政策对证券市场影响深远。当然，某些政策也会使证券市场受到负面影响，以上是我对宏观经济政策和宏观经济运行对证券市场的影响的一些理解，在进行证券投资时关注国家出台的宏观经济政策，把握国家的宏观经济运行状况，就会减少不必要的风险，产生更大的收益。 ith. 3, fill embankment before base and completed the inspection and acceptance of works. 4, before the requirement level elevation sign layout according to the drawing, every nail on the level of a certain distance, elevation of forklift parts according to the design requirements set. 5, according to the site conditions determine the routes of earth-moving machinery, vehicles, and prior checks, reinforce and widen if necessary and other preparatory work. (B) construction processes and methods; 1, process: before filling, and statistics to the