生产培训_中国cdm能力建设项目培训讲义

2020 2 18 Slide1 基准和额外性Baselinesandadditionality 中国CDM能力建设项目培训讲义TrainingMaterialBuildingCapacityfortheCDMinChina 2020 2 18 Slide2 基准线情景 Thebaselinescenario 基准线 基准线情景 Baseline baselinescenario 对没有CDM项目活动的情况下 对GHG排放趋势情况的预测ScenarioforecastedtoshowthetrendofanthropogenicGHGemissionsthatwouldoccurintheabsenceoftheproposedCDMproject 项目情景 Projectscenario对有CDM项目活动的情况下 对GHG排放趋势情景的预测ScenarioforecasttoshowthetrendofanthropogenicGHGemissionsthatwouldoccurwiththeproposedCDMprojectintervention 2020 2 18 Slide3 基准线 Baseline CDM项目活动的基准线是一种假设情况合理代表在不开展拟议项目活动的情况下的温室气体人为源排放量 基准线应涵盖项目内附件A所列所有气体部门和源类别的排放量ThebaselineforaCDMprojectactivityisthescenariothatreasonablyrepresentstheanthropogenicemissionsbysourcesofgreenhousegasesthatwouldoccurintheabsenceoftheproposedprojectactivity Abaselineshallcoveremissionsfromallgases sectorsandsourcecategorieslistedinAnnexAwithintheprojectboundary 基准线可包含一种假设情况 这种假设情况预计未来人为源排放量因项目东道国的具体情况将超过目前水平Thebaselinemayincludeascenariowherefutureanthropogenicemissionsbysourcesareprojectedtoriseabovecurrentlevels duetothespecificcircumstancesofthehostParty CDMmodalities procedures paragraph44 46 2020 2 18 Slide4 基准线方法 Baselineapproaches MA48 现有实际排放量或历史排放量 如使用时 在考虑到投资障碍的情况下 一种代表有经济吸引力的技术方案所产生的排放量在过去五年同等社会经济环境和技术状况下 类似项目活动的平均排放量在同一类别位居前20 Existingactualorhistoricalemissions asapplicable Emissionsfromatechnologythatrepresentsaneconomicallyattractivecourseofaction takingintoaccountbarrierstoinvestment Theaverageemissionsofsimilarprojectactivitiesundertakeninthepreviousfiveyears insimilarsocial economic environmentalandtechnologicalcircumstances andwhoseperformanceisamongthetop20percentoftheircategory 基准线方法的选择应从下列各项中选择最适合该项目活动的方法并就其选择说明理由Selectfromamongthefollowingapproachestheonedeemedmostappropriatefortheprojectactivityandjustifytheappropriatenessofyourchoice 2020 2 18 Slide5 建立基准线 Establishingabaseline 以一个具体项目为基础依照所使用的已批准的或新的方法学之要求以透明的和保守的方式选择进行方法 假设条件 方法学 数据源 关键因素及额外性 并考虑不确定性考虑与项目业别有关的国家或产亚政策和具体情况 如产亚改革行动 当地燃料供应 动力部门扩展计划以及其他经济条件如果小型CDM项目活动 应依简化的程序建立活动 以符合简化的准择要求 Onaproject specificbasis InaccordancewithprovisionsfortheuseofapprovedandnewmethodologiesInatransparentandconservativemannermannerregardingthechoiceofapproaches assumptions methodologies parameters datasources keyfactorsandadditionality andtakingintoaccountuncertainty Takingintoaccountrelevantnationaland orsectorpoliciesandcircumstances suchassectorreforminitiatives localfuelavailability powersectorexpansionplans andtheeconomicsituationintheprojectsector Inthecaseofsmall scaleCDMprojectactivitieswhichmeetthecriteriaspecifiedinaccordancewithsimplifiedproceduresdevelopedforsuchactivities 2020 2 18 Slide6 基准线与额外性 Baselineandadditionality Year GHGemissions tCO 2 eq 减排量Emissionreductions 2020 2 18 Slide7 额外性要求 Additionalityrequirements CDM项目的温室气体减排应与减缓气候变化有关的真实的 可测量的和长期的效益GHGemissionreductionsofCDMprojectsshallbereal measurable andassurelong termbenefitsrelatedtothemitigationofclimatechangeCDM项目温室气体的减排放应是在没有经证明的项目活动的情况下所产生的额外的所有排放量的减少GHGemissionreductionsofCDMprojectsshallbeadditionaltoanythatwouldoccurintheabsenceofthecertifiedprojectactivity KyotoProtocol Article12 5 c 清洁发展机制项目活动应具有额外性 即温室气体人为源排放量减少到低于不开展清洁发展机制项目活动情况下会出现的水平ACDMprojectactivityisadditionalifanthropogenicemissionsofgreenhousegasesbysourcesarereducedbelowthosethatwouldhaveoccurredintheabsenceoftheregisteredCDMprojectactivity CDMmodalities procedures paragraph43 2020 2 18 Slide8 额外性评估 Additionalityassessment 通过流程图或一系列问题逐渐缩小基准情景选择的范围定性或定量的评估不同可能的基准情景 并说明该基准情景的项目不可能实施定性或定量地评估所提议的项目实施障碍展示说明该项目不是通常惯例 例如发生的情况 全部可能情况的X Aflow chartorseriesofquestionsthatleadtoanarrowingofpotentialbaselineoptions Aqualitativeorquantitativeassessmentofdifferentpotentialoptionsandanindicationofwhythenon projectoptionismorelikely Aqualitativeorquantitativeassessmentofoneormorebarriersfacingtheproposedprojectactivity Anindicationthattheprojecttypeisnotcommonpractice e g occursinlessthan x ofallcases 额外性评估是说明以所使用的方法学如何展示该项目具有额外性 并非基准线情景Additionalityassessmentisanexplanationofhow throughtheuseofthemethodology itcanbedemonstratedthataprojectactivityisadditionalandthereforenotthebaselinescenario 2020 2 18 Slide9 额外性 引用新法规Additionality Introductionofnewlegislation E 类 现行国家及 或 产亚政策或法规会造成法规主导市场衰退 而使排放较大的技术比排放较少的技术 能源的能耗更有竟争性TypeE Existingnationaland orsectoralpoliciesorregulationsthatcreatepolicydrivenmarketdistortionswhichgivecomparativeadvantagestomoreemissions intensivetechnologiesorfuelsoverlessemissions intensivetechnologiesorfuels 只有在 E 类 的国家及 或 产亚政策或法规在COP缔结京都议定书 1997 12 11之decision1 CP 3 前已实行者 在建立基准线清景可被纳入考虑 如 E 类 的国家及 或 产亚政策或法规在COP缔结京都议定书后才推行者 其基准线清景应以没有此类政策或法规之假设情况为是 Only TypeE nationaland orsectoralpoliciesorregulationsthathavebeenimplementedbeforeadoptionoftheKyotoProtocolbytheCOP decision1 CP 3 11December1997 shallbetakenintoaccountwhendevelopingabaselinescenario If TypeE nationaland orsectoralpolicieswereimplementedsincetheadoptionoftheKyotoProtocol thebaselinescenarioshouldrefertoahypotheticalsituationwithoutthenationaland orsectoralpoliciesorregulationsbeinginplace E 类 现行国家及 或 产亚政策或法规 使排放较少的技术比排放较大的技术 能源的能耗更有竟争性 如对可再生能源的公共补偿或资助方案 TypeE Nationaland orsectoralpoliciesorregulationsthatgivepositivecomparativeadvantagestolessemissions intensivetechnologiesovermoreemissions intensivetechnologies e g publicsubsidiestopromotethediffusionofrenewableenergyortofinanceenergyefficiencyprograms E 类 的国家及 或 产亚政策或法规在COP缔结京都议定书 1997 12 11之decision1 CP 3 后才实行者 在建立基准线清景可不被纳入考虑 即其基准线清景应以没有此类政策或法规之假设情况为是 TypeE nationaland orsectoralpoliciesorregulationsthathavebeenimplementedsincetheAdoptionbytheCOPoftheCDMM P decision17 CP 7 11November2001 maynotbetakenintoaccountindevelopingabaselinescenario i e thebaselinescenarioshouldrefertoahypotheticalsituationwithoutthenationaland orsectoralpoliciesorregulationsbeinginplace 2020 2 18 Slide10 额外性工具 Theadditionalitytool 0 对早期开始项目的考虑0 JustifyearlystartoftheprojectandshowthatCDMwasconsidered1 与法规要求相关的基准选择1 Baselineoptionsrelatedtoexistinglawsandregulations2 投资分析2 Investmentanalysis 简单的NVP IRR 标杆 Simple NPV IRR benchmark比较 敏感性分析 Comparisons sensitivityanalysis3 其他障碍3 Otherbarriers 首个项目 能力 技术Other Firstofkind capacity technologyetc 4 证明项目不是常规项目 4 Demonstartethattheprojectisnotcommonpractice5 对注册的影响 5 ImpactofCDMregistration 2020 2 18 Slide11 额外性判断范例 步骤1Additionalitytestingexample Step1 定义替代方法Definealternatives 此项目不会成为CDM项目TheprojectnotundertakenasCDMproject所有其他可能的情景Allotherplausibleandcrediblescenarios常态情形 如使用时 Thebusinessasusual asapplicable 检验法规Checktowardslegislation若法规未实行 则可使该项目具有额外性Iflegislationisnotenforced thismaycausetheprojecttobeadditional 2020 2 18 Slide12 额外性判断范例 步骤2 Additionalitytestingexample Step2 计算提交项目的保守内部回报率IRR排除售出CERs的预期收入包括更新非常规商业项目的所有成本 可能的追加投资运行成本维护成本包括所有项目活动产生的收入 销售所发的电力由于使用自发电的成本节约 Calculateaconservativeinternalrateofreturn IRR fortheproposedprojectactivityExcludingexpectedrevenuefromthesaleofCERs Includetheincrementalinvestmentcost theoperationsandmaintenancecosts andallothercostsofupgradingtheBAUscenariototheproposedprojectactivity Alsoincludeallrevenuesgeneratedbytheprojectactivity includingrevenuefromthesaleofelectricityandcostsavingsduetoavoidedelectricitypurchases 2020 2 18 Slide13 额外性判断范例 步骤2 AdditionalitytestingexampleStep2 确定项目的IRR是否明显低于参照项目期望的或可接受的IRR或与相似国家的项目进行比较保守可接受的IRR的标准政府债券利率或其他估算的资金成本 商业贷款利率 专家对期望的IRR的意见或项目类型的比较 其他适用在行业或国家的障碍 DeterminewhethertheprojectIRRissignificantlylowerthanaconservatively i e ratherlow expectedandacceptableIRRforanalternativetothisprojectoracomparableprojecttypeintherelevantcountry TheconservativelyacceptableIRRcanbebasedon Governmentbondratesorotherappropriateestimatesofthecost of capital merciallendingrates ExpertviewsonexpectedIRRsforthisorcomparableprojecttypes Otherhurdleratesthatcanbeappliedforthecountryorsector 2020 2 18 Slide14 壁垒与经济决策原理 1 BarriersandEconomicTheory 1 2020 2 18 Slide15 壁垒与经济决策原理 2 BarriersandEconomicTheory 2 2020 2 18 Slide16 投资项目经济分析 Projectfinancialanalysis 净现值 NPV 内部报酬率 IRR B 收入 BenefitsC 成本 Costs 2020 2 18 Slide17 时间价值 TimeValue 你现在可以选择 现在获得1000美元 A Receive 10 000nowOR3年后获得1000美元 B Receive 10 000inthreeyears 现在的1万元比今后的1万元价值高10000nowareworthmorethan10000inthefuture 2020 2 18 Slide18 未来价值 FutureValue 2020 2 18 Slide19 现值 PresentValue 2020 2 18 Slide20 净现值 NetPresentValue 净现值是指在项目计算期内 按行业基准折现率或其他设定折现率计算的各年净现金流量现值的代数和 NetPresentValueisthecumulativepresentvalueofincome positivevalues andaseriesoffuturepayments negativevalues fromaseriesofinvestmentcashflowusingadiscountratetohandletimevaluesofmoney i DiscountrateCF CashFlowj thej thperiodn thetotalnumberoftheperiod 2020 2 18 Slide21 净现值 NetPresentValue 当净现值为正时 NPV 0 由于资本所值大于其成本 因而增加企业的价值 moreeconomicattractive当净现值为负时 NPV 0 由于资本成本大于其所值 因而减少企业价值 lesseconomicattractive净现值为零时 NPV 0 意味着投资人已经赚到与投资风险相应的适当回报 Balanceattractive 2020 2 18 Slide22 内部收益率 IRR 当效益和成本的现值相等时的投资的回报率IRRisthediscountraterwhichmakestheNPVoftheinvestmentexactlyzero 2020 2 18 Slide23 步骤2总结 Step2summary 如果NPV IRR太低 无论CERs的收入如何 项目将不会被考虑ifNPV IRRistoolow theprojectwillnotgoaheadanyway regardlessoftheCERsrevenueornot 如果NPV IRR太高 将难以解释投资障碍的问题 ifNPV IRRistoohigh theprojectwillhavedifficultiesinexplainingtheinvestmentbarrier asitmaybearguedthatitwouldbeimplementedanyway regardlessoftheCERsrevenue 项目投资分析中涉及许多假设情况 DOE在审定此一问题时非常困难itisverydifficultfortheDOEtochecktheIRRaswedon tknowaprojectdeveloper sinternalcostingapproach thewaybenefitsareevaluated etc therearealotofassumptionsinsuchcalculations aswe retalkingaboutfuturecashflows 指定经营实体一般采取向有关管理部门或利害相关方了解NPV IRR是否合理DNVbasesitsjudgementonexperienceswithsimilarprojectsintherespectivesectorandcountrycontextandwillaskauthoritiesorotherstakeholderswhethertheNPV IRRanalysisinthePDDisreasonable 在PDD文件中应增加对投资障碍的数量分析AddaqualitativediscussionabouttheNPV IRRinyourPDDtomakethecaseofaninvestmentbarrier 2020 2 18 Slide24 额外性判断范例 步骤3 Additionalitytestingexample Step3 壁垒评估Barrierassessment 投资壁垒Investmentbarriers技术壁垒Technologicalbarriers因流行实务造成的壁垒Barriersduetoprevailingpractice支持壁垒的充分证据Supportbarrierswithsufficientevidence证明最终的情景无法避免此壁垒 那就是基线 Showthatatleastoneof