外文翻译--供应链风险管理.doc

外文翻译-供应链风险管理 毕业论文外文翻译原文 Supply Chain Risk Management DL Olson and D WuGlobal competition technological change and continual search for competitiveadvantage have motivated risk management in supply chains1 Supply chains areoften complex systems of networks reaching hundreds or thousands of participantsfrom around the globe in some cases Wal-Mart or Dell The term has been usedboth at the strategic level coordination and collaboration and tactical level managementof logistics across functions and between businesses 2 In this sense riskmanagement can focus on identification of better ways and means of accomplishingorganizational objectives rather than simply preservation of assets or risk avoidanceSupply chain risk management is interested in coordination and collaborationof processes and activities across functions within a network of organizations Tangprovided a framework of risk management perspectives in supply chains3 Supplychains enable manufacturing outsourcing to take advantages of global relativeadvantages as well as increase product variety There are many risks inherent inthis more open dynamic systemSupply Chain Risk Management ProcessOne view of a supply chain risk management process includes steps for risk identificationrisk assessment risk avoidance and risk mitigation4 These structures forhandling risk are compatible with Tang s list given above but focus on the broaderaspects of the processRisk IdentificationRisks in supply chains can include operational risks and disruptions Operationalrisks involve inherent uncertainties for supply chain elements such as customerdemand supply and cost Disruption risks come from disasters natural in theform of floods hurricanes etc man-made in the form of terrorist attacks or wars and from economic crises currency reevaluations strikes shifting market prices Most quantitative analyses and methods are focused on operational risksDisruptions are more dramatic less predictable and thus are much more difficultto model Risk management planning and response for disruption are usuallyqualitativeRisk AssessmentTheoretically risk has been viewed as applying to those cases where odds areknown and uncertainty to those cases where odds are not known Risk is a preferablebasis for decision making but life often presents decision makers with cases ofuncertainty The issue is further complicated in that perfectly rational decision makers may have radically different approaches to risk Qualitative risk managementdepends a great deal on managerial attitude towards risk Different rational individuals are likely to have different response to risk avoidance which usually is inversely related to return thus leading to a tradeoff decision Research into cognitive psychology has found that managers are often insensitive to probability estimates of possible outcomes and tend to ignore possible events that they consider to be unlikely5 Furthermore managers tend to pay little attention to uncertainty involved with positive outcomes6 They tend to focus on critical performance targets which makes their response to risk contingent upon context7 Some approaches to theoretical decision making prefer objective treatment of risk through quantitative scientific measures following normative ideas of how humans should make decisions Business involves an untheoretical construct however with high levels of uncertainty data not available and consideration of multiple often conflicting factors making qualitative approaches based upon perceived managerial risk moreappropriateBecause accurate measures of factors such as probability are often lacking robust strategies more likely to enable effective response under a wide range of circumstances are often attractive to risk managers Strategies are efficient if they enable a firm to deal with operational risks efficiently regardless of major disruptionsStrategies are resilient if they enable a firm to keep operating despite majordisruptions Supply chain risk can arise from many sources including the following8 Political events Product availability Distance from source Industry capacity Demand fluctuation Changes in technology Changes in labor markets Financial instability Management turnover Risk AvoidanceThe oldest form of risk avoidance is probably insurance purchasing some level offinancial security from an underwriter This focuses on the financial aspects of risk and is reactive providing some recovery after a negative experience Insurance is not the only form of risk management used in supply chains Delta Airlines insurance premiums for terrorism increased from 2 million in 2001 to 152 million in 20029 Insurance focuses on financial risks Other major risks include loss of customers due to supply change disruptionSupply chain risks can be buffered by a variety of methods Purchasing is usuallyassigned the responsibility of controlling costs and assuring continuity of supplyBuffers in the form of inventories exist to provide some risk reduction at a costof higher inventory holding cost Giunipero and Al Eltantawy compared traditionalpractices with newer risk management approaches10 The traditional practice relying upon extra inventory multiple suppliers expediting and frequent supplierchanges suffered from high transaction costs long purchase fulfillment cycle timesand expensive rush orders Risk management approaches drawing upon practicessuch as supply chain alliances e-procurement just-in-time delivery increasedcoordination and other techniques provides more visibility in supply chain operationsThere may be higher prices incurred for goods and increased security issuesbut methods have been developed to provide sound electronic business securityRisk MitigationTang provided four basic risk mitigation approaches for supply chains11 These focuson the sources of risk management of uncertainty with respect to supply to demandto product management and information management Furthermore there are bothstrategic and tactical aspects involved Strategically network design can enable better control of supply risks Strategies such as product pricing and rollovers can control demand to a degree Greater product variety can strategically protect against product risks And systems providing greater information visibility across supply chain members can enable better coping with risks Tactical decisions include supplier selection and order allocation including contractual arrangements demand control over time markets and products product promotion and information sharing vendor managed inventory systems and collaborative planning forecasting and replenishmentSupply ManagementA variety of supplier relationships are possible varying the degree of linkage between vendor and core organizations Different types of contracts and information exchange are possible and different schemes for pricing and coordinating schedules Supplier Selection ProcessSupplier vendor evaluation is a very important operational decision There aredecisions selecting which suppliers to employ as well as decisions with respect toquantities to order from each supplier With the increase in outsourcing and theopportunities provided by electronic business to tap world-wide markets thesedecisions are becoming ever more complex The presence of multiple criteria inthese decisions has long been recognized12 A probabilistic model for this decisionhas been published to include the following criteria131 Quality personnel2 Quality procedure3 Concern for quality4 Company history5 Price relative to quality6 Actual price7 Financial ability8 Technical performance9 Delivery history10 Technical assistance11 Production capability12 Manufacturing equipmentSome of these criteria overlap and other criteria may exist for specific supply chain decision makers But clearly there are many important aspects to selecting suppliersSupplier Order AllocationOperational risks in supply chain order allocation include uncertainties in demands supply yields lead times and costs Thus not only do specific suppliers need to be selected the quantities purchased from them needs to be determined on a recurring basisSupply chains provide many valuable benefits to their members but also createproblems of coordination that manifest themselves in the bullwhip effect14Information system coordination can reduce some of the negative manifestations ofthe bullwhip effect but there still remains the issue of profit sharing Decisions that are optimal for one supply chain member often have negative impacts of the totalprofitability of the entire supply chain15Demand ManagementDemand management approaches include using statistics in models for identificationof an optimal portfolio of demand distributions16 and economic models to select strategies using price as a response mechanism to change demand17 Other strategies include shifting demand over time across markets or across products Demand management of course is one of the aims of advertising and other promotional activities Howeverit has long been noted as one of the most difficult things to predict over timeProduct ManagementAn effective strategy to manage product risk is variety which can be used toincrease market share to serve distinct segments of a market The basic idea is todiversify products to meet the specific needs of each market segment Howeverwhile this would be expected to increase revenues and market share it will lead to increase manufacturing costs and inventory costs Various ways to deal with thepotential inefficiencies in product variety include Dell s make-to-order strategySupply Chain DisruptionTang classified supply chain vulnerabilities as those due to uncertain economiccycles customer demand and disasters Land Rover reduced their workforce byover one thousand when a key supplier went insolvent Dole was affected byHurricane Mitch hitting their banana plantations in Central America in 1998September 11 2001 suspended air traffic leading Ford Motor Company to closefive plants for several days18 Many things can disrupt supply chains Supply chaindisruptions have been found to negatively impact stock returns for firms sufferingthem19Supply Chain RisksRecent research into supply chain risk covers many topicsNew Technology RiskGolda and Phillipi20 considered technical and business risk components of the supplychain Technical risks relate to science and engineering and deal with the uncertainties of research output Business risks relate to markets human responsesto products andor related services At Intel three risk mitigation strategies wereconsidered to deal with the risks associated with new technologies1 Partnerships with associated decisions involving who to partner with and atwhat stage of product development 2 Pursue extendable solutions evolutionary products that will continue to offervalue as new technical breakthroughs are gained3 Evaluate multiple options to enable commercializationPartner Selection RiskPartner to include vendor evaluation is a very important operational decisionImportant decisions include which vendors to employ and quantities to order fromeach vendor With the increase in outsourcing and the opportunities provided byelectronic business to tap world-wide markets these decisions are becoming evermore complex The presence of multiple criteria in these decisions has long beenrecognized21Outsourcing RisksOther risks are related to partner selection focusing specifically on the additional risks associated with international trade Risks in outsourcing can include22 Cost unforeseen vendor selection transition or management Lead time delay in production start-up manufacturing process or transportation Quality minor or major finishing defects component fitting or structuralDefects Outsourcing has become endemic in the United States especially informationtechnology to India and production to China23 Risk factors include Ability to retain control Potential for degradation of critical capability Risk of dependency Pooling risk proprietarial information clients competing among themselves Risk of hidden costsEcological RisksIn our ever-more complex world it no longer is sufficient for each organizationto make decisions in light of their own vested self-interest There is growing concern with the impact of human decisions on the state of the earth This is especially true in mass production environments such as power generation24 but also is important in all aspects of business Cruz 2008 presented a dynamic frameworkfor modeling and analysis of supply chain networks in light of corporate social responsibility25 That study presented a framework multiple objective programmingmodel with the criteria of imizing profit minimizing waste and minimizing riskMultiple Criteria Selection ModelA number of methodologies are applied in practice to include simple screening andscoring methods26 supplier positioning matrices to lay out risks by vendor withassociated ratings27 and a combination of sorts combining risk categorization withratings of opportunity probability and severity28 Traditional multiple criteria methods have also been applied to include analytic hierarchy process29 The simple multiattribute rating theory SMART 30 model bases selection on the rank order ofthe product of criteria weights and alternative scores over these criteria and will be used here Note that we are demonstrating and are not claiming that the orders and ratings used are universal We are rather presenting a method that real decisionmakers could use with their own ratings and even with other criteria that theymight think important in a given application OptionsThere are various levels of outsourcing that can be adopted These range from simplyoutsourcing particular tasks much like the idea of service oriented architecture co-managing services with partners hiring partners to manage services and full outsourcing in a contractual relationship We will use these four outsourcingrelationships plus the fifth option of doing everything in-house as our optionsCriteriaWe will utilize the criteria given below Cost including hidden Lead time Quality Ability to retain control Potential loss of critical capability Risk of dependency Risk of loss of proprietarial information Risk of client contentionThe SMART method begins by rank ordering criteria Here assume the followingrank order of importance 1 Ability to retain control2 Risk proprietarial information loss3 Quality of product and service4 Potential loss of critical capability5 Risk of dependency6 Cost7 Lead time8 Risk of client contention The next step is to develop relative weights of importance for criteria We willdo this by assigning the most important criterion 100 points and give proportionalratings for each of the others as given in Table 51 Weights are obtained by dividing each criterion s assigned point value by the total of points here 435 This yields weights shown in Table 52Scoring of Alternatives over CriteriaThe next step of the SMART method is to score alternatives This is an expressionby the decision maker or associated experts of how well each alternative performson each criterion Scores range from 10 ideal performance to 0 absolute worstperformance imaginable This approach makes the scores independent of scale and independent of weight Demonstration is given in Table 53Once weights and scores are obtained value functions for each alternative are simplythe sum products of weights times scores for each alternative The closer to 10 the imum value function the better Table 54 shows value scores for the fivealternatives The outcome here is that in-house operations best satisfy the preference function of the decision maker Obviously different weights and scores will yield different outcomes But the method enables decision makers to apply a sound but simple analysis to aid their decision making译文供应链风险管理 DL Olson 和D Wu全球竞争技术变化以及不断寻找具有竞争优势的动机的供应链风险管理供应链往往是复杂的系统网络全球数百或数以千计的参与者沃尔玛或戴尔这个词已经被用在战略层面协调和合作和战术水平都跨职能与企业物流管理在这个意义上说风险管理可以集中精力更好的方法和实现组织而不是简单的资产或规避风险供应链风险管理协调和跨职能的活动过程和内部协作的组织网络很感兴趣风险管理的角度提供了供应链的框架供应链使制造业外包能够利用全球的相对优势优势以及增加产品品种在此有更开放的动态系统固有的风险供应链风险管理过程供应链的一个风险管理进程包括风险识别风险评估风险规避和风险缓解步骤处理这些风险结构与上述汤的名单兼容但重点放在该进程的更广泛的方面风险识别在供应链风险可以包括操作风险和干扰操作风险包括如客户需求供应和成本的内在不确定性的供应链元素中断的风险来自灾害在洪水飓风等形式自然人在恐怖袭击或战争的形式提出经济危机货币重新评估罢工多变的市场价格大多数定量分析方法主要集中在经营风险中断更戏剧化较难预测因此更为困难模式风险管理规划和反应通常是受干扰风险评估理论上风险已被看作是适用于那些已知胜算的情况下不确定性和可能性是那些不知道情况风险是一个较好的决策依据但生活往往不确定性的情况下提出与决策者这个问题进一步复杂化因为完全理性的决策者可能从根本上不同的角度看待风险定性风险管理很大程度上取决于对风险管理的态度很大不同的理性个体可能有不同的反应避免风险通常是负相关的回报从而导致一个折中的决定研究认知心理学的研究发现经理们往往不敏感的概率估计可能的结果他们往往忽视认为是不可能的可能发生的事件此外管理人员往往不注意参与的积极成果的不确定性他们往往把重点放在关键性能指标这使得他们的风险反应于环境队伍决策理论的一些目标希望通过定量的方法科学的风险处置措施后人类应该如何作出决定的规范性意见业务涉及建设但是水平高不确定性数据不详和多个往往相互冲突的因素的考虑使得风险管理后认为更适当的定性方法由于诸如概率因素往往缺乏准确的措施更可能使个别情况下广泛有效的反应的策略往往吸引风险管理者策略是有效的如果他们能帮助一个公司的经营风险和有效处理不论大的破坏有弹性的策略如果他们能够坚定地维护一个主要经营供应链风险可能来自许多来源包括以下内容政治事件产品的可用性距离来源行业的能力需求波动技术变革在劳动市场的变化金融不稳定管理的营业额风险规避风险防范可能是最古老的保险购买一些金融安全来自承销商的水平这侧重于财务方面的风险是被动的提供了一些负面经验恢复保险不是风险管理在供应链使用唯一形式德尔塔航空公司的恐怖主义保险的保费由200万元增至2001年的152亿美元于2002年保险侧重于金融风险其他主