万科股票价值评估.xls

WKA74 92 Growth rate32 10 year treasurary yield3 68 tax rate28 83 NOPM29 62 44 32 Growth rate32 15 10 year treasurary yield3 68 tax rate28 83 NOPM29 62 44 95 Growth rate32 15 10 year treasuray yield3 20 tax rate28 83 NOPM29 62 28 05 Growth rate15 10 year treasuray yield3 20 tax rate28 83 NOPM29 62 25 58 Growth rate15 10 year treasuray yield2 68 tax rate28 83 NOPM29 62 Growth rate 10 year treasuray yield tax rate NOPM 万万科科A A Company TickerWKAIntrinsic Stock Value12 11 Excess Return Period years 10 00Depreciation Rate of Rev 0 18 Rev mil 40 991 78Investment Rate of Rev 0 67 Growth Rate 15 00 Working Capital of Rev 166 04 Net Operating Profit Margin 0 30Short Term Assets mil 113 456 37 Tax Rate 0 29Short Term Liabilities mil 64 553 72 Stock Price10 45Equity Risk Permium 7 00 Shares Outstanding mil 10 995 21Company Beta1 24 10 year Treasury Yield 3 68 Value of Debt out mil 14 942 14 Bond Spread to Treasury Value of Pref Stock Out mil 0 00 Perferred Stock Yield Company WACC 11 39 Cost of Common Equity 10 year Treasury Bond Yield 3 68 Company Specific Beta1 24 Equity Risk Premium 7 00 Cost of Common Equity12 36 Market Capitalization and After Tax Weighted Average Cost of Capital Current YieldAfter Tax YieldMarket Value Long Term Debt5 50 3 91 14 942 14 Perferred Stock0 00 0 00 Common Stock12 36 12 36 114 899 94 129 842 08 Capitalization WACC Yield 11 51 0 45 0 00 0 00 88 49 10 94 100 00 11 39 Latest Year200820072006 Revenue mil 40 991 7835 526 6117 918 33 Growth15 98 CAGR32 Est growth rate15 00 10 years growth forecast YearReve Rev growth Growth rate 200840 991 78 200947 140 556 148 7715 00 201054 211 637 071 0815 00 201162 343 378 131 7415 00 201271 694 889 351 5115 00 201382 449 1110 754 2315 00 201494 816 4812 367 3715 00 2015109 038 9514 222 4715 00 2016125 394 7916 355 8415 00 2017144 204 0118 809 2215 00 2018165 834 6121 630 6015 00 3years NOPM record YearReve CGSSGAR DNOPNOPM 200840 991 7825005 271860 352188 0511 938 1129 12 200735 526 6120607 341194 542123 2711 601 4632 66 200617 918 3311441 26625 72999 614 851 7427 08 Avg NOPM29 62 10 years growth forecast YearReve NOPMNOP est 200840 991 78 200947 140 5529 62 13 962 38 201054 211 6329 62 16 056 73 201162 343 3729 62 18 465 24 201271 694 8829 62 21 235 03 201382 449 1129 62 24 420 28 201494 816 4829 62 28 083 32 2015109 038 9529 62 32 295 82 2016125 394 7929 62 37 140 20 2017144 204 0129 62 42 711 23 2018165 834 6129 62 49 117 91 Tax rate record in the past YearRev before taxtaxtax rate 20086 322 291 682 4226 61 20077 641 612 324 1030 41 20063 434 491 011 5029 45 Avg 28 83 10 years growth forecast YearNOPTax rateTaxNOPAT 2008 200913 962 3828 83 4 024 709 937 68 201016 056 7328 83 4 628 40 11 428 33 201118 465 2428 83 5 322 66 13 142 58 201221 235 0328 83 6 121 06 15 113 97 201324 420 2828 83 7 039 22 17 381 06 201428 083 3228 83 8 095 10 19 988 22 201532 295 8228 83 9 309 37 22 986 45 201637 140 2028 83 10 705 78 26 434 42 201742 711 2328 83 12 311 64 30 399 58 201849 117 9128 83 14 158 39 34 959 52 3year invest depreciation record YearRev InvestInvest Depre Depre Net invest 200840 991 78215 280 53 94 170 23 121 11 200735 526 61257 90 73 108 230 30 149 67 200617 918 33136 020 76 0 00 136 02 Avg 0 67 0 18 10 years growth forecast YearRev InvestDepre Net invest 2008 200947 140 55315 8883 97231 91 201054 211 63363 2696 56266 69 201162 343 37417 75111 05306 70 201271 694 88480 41127 71352 70 201382 449 11552 47146 86405 61 201494 816 48635 34168 89466 45 2015109 038 95730 64194 23536 42 2016125 394 79840 24223 36616 88 2017144 204 01966 27256 86709 41 2018165 834 61 1 111 22295 39815 82 Working capital record in the past YearRev Acc Rece Inventory Acc Pay Working Cap Wor Cap 200840 991 78922 7785898 712895 9673 925 51180 34 200735 526 61864 8866472 8811103 856 233 96158 29 200617 918 33363 6134167 115952 2628 578 46159 49 Avg 166 04 10 years growth forecast YearReve Rev growth Wor Cap 200840 991 78 200947 140 556 148 7710 209 45 201054 211 637 071 0811 740 87 201162 343 378 131 7413 502 00 201271 694 889 351 5115 527 30 201382 449 1110 754 2317 856 40 201494 816 4812 367 3720 534 86 2015109 038 9514 222 4723 615 09 2016125 394 7916 355 8427 157 35 2017144 204 0118 809 2231 230 95 2018165 834 6121 630 6035 915 60 Disc Eccess Return Period FCFF 5 242 13Total Corporate Value212 620 25 Disc Residual Value104 406 01Less Debt14 942 14 Short Term Assets113 456 37Less Perferred Stocks0 00 Total Corporate Value212 620 25Less Short Term Liabilities64 553 72 Total Value to Common Equity133 124 39 Intrinsic Stock Value12 11 10 years growth forecast YearReve NOPATNet investWor Cap FCFFDiscount FactorDiscounted FCFF 200840 991 78 200947 140 559 937 68231 9110 209 45 503 680 8978 452 19 201054 211 6311 428 33266 6911 740 87 579 240 8060 466 85 201162 343 3713 142 58306 7013 502 00 666 120 7236 481 99 201271 694 8815 113 97352 7015 527 30 766 040 6496 497 62 201310 754 2317 381 06405 6117 856 40 880 950 5832 513 75 201494 816 4819 988 22466 4520 534 86 1 013 090 5236 530 41 2015109 038 9522 986 45536 4223