高瑞特卫星节目讲义--作业(doc 74页).doc

n 当前文档修改密码：8362839GOLDRATT SATELLITE PROGRAM 高瑞特卫星节目SESSION ONE第一讲OPERATIONS作业Hi! System Approach. 嗨！ 系统方式。There is a broad consensus that if we want to improve the performance of our company we have to take a system approach, holistic approach. 广泛的共识是，如果我们想要改善公司的绩效，我们必须采用系统方式 。We all agree about that the only question is how do you do it. 我们都同意，唯一的问题在于你如何去做。Well, lets try.让我们来试试。First thing is, its obvious that we cannot look on just one function in isolation or on just issue in isolation.首先，很显然的，我们不能将每一个功能或问题个别分开来看。 So for example, if you want to take a system approach to an organization you have to start with a broad base. 举例来说，如果你要以系统方式来解决一个组织问题，你必须从全面的角度来看。Like for example, to take into consideration logistics and the markets and financial concerns and do not forget that any organization is composed out of people you must take into account people relationships as well. 譬如说，当考虑运筹、市场与财务问题时，别忘了每一个公司都是由人所组成，你也必须将人际关系考虑进去。 So far so good.到目前为止一切还好。But then what do you do? 但是，接下来你怎么做呢？In order to demonstrate it, I want to take an example. 为了要示范，我来举一个例子。 Now, as always when you are taking examples there is a fear of taking a too small example and then the conclusions are too broad example and then its like you havent taken an example at all. 通常当我们举例时，总担心所举的例子太小而结论却不具体，或例子太广泛，结果就好像没有一样。 So what I will do, I will take as an example the entire steel industry in the world. 因此我要以全世界的钢铁业为例。System approach.系统方式。 What did we say? 我们说了什么呢？ Well take for example one aspect of logistic - what will it be in the steel industry? 我们将举一个运筹方面的例子 它在钢铁业会是什么样子呢？ Something really bothering people about the existing logistics. 对运筹而言，有些事真让人心烦。It will be something like finished goods inventories are much too high in that industry. 例如，“在钢铁业里，成品库存太高了”之类的事。 Well, let me tell you a little bit about it so you understand that when steel industry is talking about problems of too much finished goods inventory, its even worse than what happens in your industry. 嗯，让我来告诉你，钢铁业成品库存太高的问题，比你所在之产业还要严重的多。As you see, a mid-range steel mill has about quarter of a million tons of finished steel on their yard. 如你所知，一个中级规模的钢铁厂在它们的仓库里约有二十五万吨成品。This is huge. 这是个很大的数量。 Why does it bother them so much?这为什么造成他们这么多的困扰呢？Just let me remind you that steel, not like wine, is not improving with time. 让我提醒你们，钢并不像酒一样会越陈越香。As a matter of fact when you are talking to them they confess that they do not know what they produce more steel or rust. 事实上当你和他们谈起时，他们承认，他们不知道生产比较多的是钢还是铁锈。This is the magnitude of the problem - its huge. 这是个大问题。 Then we said, we shouldnt take just logistic problem and deal with it in isolation, we have to look on other issues at the same time in order to have the system approach. 所以，我们不应只考虑到运筹而且把它单独分开来处理，我们必须同时看待其它的问题以便采取系统方式。What was the other thing? 其它的问题是什么呢？The market, now what you look on the market, something bad. 是市场，现在你所看的市场，情况很糟。 Well, in the steel industry its very easy to see what is bad, because thats what you are getting through the phones all time and this is customer complaints. 嗯，在钢铁业你很容易发现什么是糟糕的，就是你常在电话中所接到的顾客抱怨。Not like in other industries there is something little bit special about the steel industry, which is - over 95% of the complaints is about one single issue, and there are furious complaints. 不像别的工业，钢铁业有一点不同， 超过95的抱怨是同一个问题，而且这些抱怨是激烈的。And the issue is you promised to deliver and you didnt deliver on time. 问题就是“你答应要交货，却没有准时交货”。 First of all you can ask yourself what do you mean promised to deliver if they have so much finished goods inventories. 首先你可能会问你自己，既然成品库存有这么多，你说“答应要交货”到底是什么意思。How come that they didnt deliver it immediately. 为什么他们没有立刻把货运送出去呢？Well, as it happens, when you come to order something from the steel mill, yes the do have a quarter of million tons of steel on their fields, but not what you are asking for. 嗯，情形是这样的，当你向钢铁工厂订购一些东西时，他们的确有近二十五万吨的钢铁在他们的仓库里，但不是你要的那种。 So if you will go to a Korean steel mill they will tell you, for example if you are asking for steel plates, they will tell you 6 weeks. 比方说，如果你跑到一家韩国钢铁工厂要买钢板，他们会告诉你要六个星期。If you go to European steel mill they will tell you 6 weeks. 如果你跑到欧洲钢铁工厂，他们也会告诉你要六个星期。If you go to the US steel mill they will tell you 6 weeks. 如果你跑到美国钢铁厂，他们还是会告诉你要六个星期。Its like number that came to Moses on mount Sinai. 这就好像摩西在西奈山所得到的数目。So now you do not have a choice, you have to wait 6 weeks, fine. 因此你没有选择，你必须等六个星期，好吧！And then it turns out that their due date performance is 60%. In other words, in 60% of the cases they will deliver before or at 6 weeks. 结果他们交期绩效是60。换句话说，60的情况，他们会在六个星期内或更早交货。In the remaining 40% they will deliver eventually. 剩下40，他们迟早会交货。And eventually can be as long as 15 weeks. 最后可能拖到15个星期。Now why is it such a problem there? 那么，为什么会有这样的问题呢？Its due to the nature of the clients of the steel mills. 这要追究于钢铁工厂客户的性质。Suppose that you are a client of the steel mill, a big client. 假设你是这家钢铁工厂的客户，大客户。Suppose that you are doing steel bridges. 而你是造钢铁桥的。In order to do one steel bridge you are using lets say something like over 200 different types of plates. 为了造一座钢铁桥你得用到两百种不同的钢板。Now what are the facts? 事实上呢？The chance of getting one type of plate on time is about 60%, 0.6. 准时得到一种钢板的机率是大约60，0.6。If that is the case, what is the chance of getting two plates of steel at the same time? 如果是这样，那么同时准时得到两种钢板的机率有多大呢？0.6 time 0.6 in other words about 36%. 0.6乘以0.6，换句话说，大概是36。What is the chance of getting 4 plates on time? 同时准时得到四种钢板的机率有多大呢？Its 0.36 time 0.36 - oh, oh - its 10% now. 它是0.36乘以0.36，嗯 这次大概是10。Whats the chance of getting 8 plates on time? 1%. 准时得到八种钢板的机率有多大呢？1。Whats the chance of getting 200 plates on time? 准时得到两百种钢板的机率有多大呢？Less than the chance of winning the lottery. 比赢得乐透彩券还小。But if one plate is missing you cannot deliver the bridge to your client.但如果缺了一片钢板，你就无法将桥完成交给你的客户了。 You can imagine what furious complaints we are talking about, unbelievable. 你可以想象我们所说的愤怒抱怨了，难以相信。Fine. 很好。So we are looking on the market. 所以我们看了市场问题。We are looking on logistics. 我们看了运筹。What else finance.还有什么别的财务。What is the biggest problem in the steel mill? 钢铁工厂最大的问题是什么呢？The biggest problem is very long payback periods of investments. 最大的问题是投资的回收期非常长。What am I talking about? 我所指的是什么呢？You know that when you want to buy a new piece of equipment and you belong to a corporate, you have to fill out an appropriation request for this piece of equipment where you have to justify why you want to buy it. 你知道当你在一家大公司要买一台新设备，你要填写申请表，来评估为什么要买它。And the justification is financial. 这个评估就是财务。And basically you have to justify that due to this new piece equipment within some period of time you will cover the whole investment. 基本上你必须评估这一新设备，在多长时间内就可以回收所有的投资。Now in most industries, world wide there is a magic number today which is 2 years. 在大多数工业，举世皆然地存在一个神奇数字，那就是两年。Which means if your appropriation request shows that it will take to return the investment in 2 and a half years most probably the corporate will send it back to you and not approve it. 这意谓着，如果你的申请显示你将在两年半内回收，很有可能公司会把它退回给你而不批准。So then you will have to take it back to fudge the numbers, to show that its below two years, submit it again. 因此你必须回去捏造数据，凑出它是小于两年，然后再呈核一次。We all know these number games. 我们对这些数字游戏都很清楚。Well, in the steel mills they approve even when they appropriation request is up to 7 years. 嗯，在钢铁厂即使申请回收年限高达七年他们也会批准。They dont like it one bit, but they know that if they put this restriction of 2 years maximum they cannot buy any new equipment and they know that they must move with the technology. 他们一点也不喜欢这样，但他们知道如果设下了两年之限制，将会无法买到任何新设备，而他们必须跟随着技术。This is a huge problem. 这是一个大问题。What about human relationships? 人际关系呢？Oh, over there are no lack of problems. 哦，永远都有问题。You see in a regular steel mill the internal politics is much, much worse than Washington. 你知道在一个正常的钢铁厂内部的政治问题比在华盛顿那里还要更糟。In most steel mills you will find out that there is a minimum three different chapters of the unions. 在多数钢铁厂中你至少可以找到三个不同的工会联盟。And they are fighting with each other even more than they are fighting with management. 他们彼此间的争斗比他们和管理阶层之间的争斗还要更严重。It is craziness. 真是疯狂。Fine, so here we defined what are the things that we want to look on. 好吧，我们已经界定我们所要看的对象了。What do we do now? 现在该怎么做呢？How do we now continue according to the system approach? 我们依照系统方式该怎么继续呢？We dont know. 我们不知道。So what do we do? 那我们该做什么呢？We do what the steel industry is doing, which is to deal with each one of these items in isolation. 我们做钢铁业所做的事，就是分开单独处理每一件事。For example, how do they try to rectify the situation of the too much finished goods inventories? 例如说，怎么解决成品库存过多呢?They put a new computer system, and if it does not work, they put the newer computer system. And if this does not work, they put the newest computer system. 他们装了一套新计算机系统，如果不行，再装一套更新的计算机系统，再不行，再装最新的计算机系统，ERP。ERP today with the efforts to implement it is minimum 10 million dollars. 今天的ERP包括导入至少要花一千万美元。They still do it because the magnitude of the problem is huge. 但由于问题很大，他们仍然照做了。What about customer complaints? 那顾客的抱怨怎么办呢？Fine, we know what to do with it. 好，我们知道怎么处理它。We hire a consulting company that will go and do a survey among the clients and submit their recommendation of how to rearrange the customer service department. 我们请顾问公司去作客户调查，并提出有关如何重整顾客服务部门之建议书。And the next one. 下一个 。Long payback periods, that is a financial problem, we will have to deal with it with financial methods. 漫长的投资回收期，那是一项财务问题，我们必需用财务的手段来解决它。And what they are doing is merging, downsizing, there whole countries that have lost their entire steel mill industry due to that. 他们采取并购、缩编，整个国家因为这个原因已失去全部钢铁业。That is the size of the problem. 那是大问题。What about human problems? 那人的问题怎么办呢？That is life. 那是人生。So we will try to hire some organizational psychologists, and if this does not help, I know now they are now looking for organizational psychiatrists. 所以我们尝试雇用一些组织心理学家，如果他们帮不上忙，我们会再找组织精神科医生。Nobody came forward yet. 目前还没找到。But look what is really happening. 但是看看实际发生的事。Fine, we understand system approach. 好了，我们了解系统方式了。We understand that in order to do it we have to start not with one issue or one function, but with broad scope. 我们了解为了要做，我们不能只从一个问题或一项功能开始，而必须是全面性的。And then, and then we dont know what to do, so we are diverting back to each issue in isolation. 然后我们不知道要做什么，所以我们又回头单独去看每一个问题。I think that we shouldnt give up. 我想我们不应该放弃。I think that we should stick to the intuition that brought us to realize that we must use the system approach. 我想我们应坚持直觉，它让我们了解到必须使用系统方式Why do we claim that we must use the system approach? 为甚么我们必须要采用系统方式呢？Because intuitively we are aware that if you do something in one function, it does have ramifications on the other functions. 因为我们直觉地了解到，如果你在某一功能做某些事，它的确会衍生到其它功能上。And something that might look good locally, might have very negative ramifications elsewhere. 有些局部看来好的事情，可能在别的地方造成负面的枝节。Which means we are aware of the fact that there are cause effect relationships, which are crossing between functions, that the cause in one department can cause effects in another department. 这意谓着我们了解到在功能之间有因果关系存在，一个部门的因会造成其它部门的果。If that is the case, why wont we try to build the cause-effect relationship before we have decided what should we do. Is it so difficult? 如果是这种情形，为什么我们不试着在要决定该怎么做之前先去建构因果关系。这很困难吗？Well, let me show you - it is very easy. 嗯，让我来说明给你看，很容易的。More than that let me show you that such a cause and effect diagram, I call it a tree, a logical tree, is totally obvious to us, even though we might not be in this specific organization, still the cause and effect relationships are totally generic. 让你看看这因果关系图，我叫它作“树”， “逻辑树”，即使我们不在这个组织里，对我们来说其因果关系是完全一般化的。Let me show you an example of it. 让我给你看一个例子。Since you are not going to be able to read it from the screen, open your books its on page number 4. 由于你无法从银幕上看到它，请打开你书本的第四页。And let me read it. 让我读给你听。I will read it from the cause to the effect. 我将从原因读到结果。In other words I will read it along the direction of the arrows. 换句话说，我将按照箭头来读。Of course, I will start at the bottom, I will start at the statement number 500. 当然啦，我会从底下开始，我会从第500的句子开始。Now, the number itself does not have any meaning, except for when I am saying statement number 500 you know which statement I am about to read. 这里的数字本身并没有什么意义，只是让你知道当我说到第500号的句子时，你晓得我将要念那里。For those of you whom it didnt help it is at the bottom left.如这还是不清楚，它就在左下方。Statement 500- for a long time tons per hour has been the prime operational measurement in the steel industry. 第500号句子，“长久以来，吨/小时是钢铁业的主要生产绩效评估”。That is the fact about that industry. 那就是钢铁业的事实。But let me explain to you this fact. 让我为你解释这事实。What is written here is describing the reality that in every steel mill industry for the last 100 years the prime measurement was ton per hour. 这里所写的是，过去一百年来，钢铁业是以吨/小时作为主要的绩效评估。Every work center, every department, every plant is measured - how many tons per hour have you produced last shift, last day, last week, last month, last quarter, last year. 每一个工作中心，每一个部门，每一个工厂都用相同方法评估上一班，昨天，上星期，上个月，上一季，去年，你每小时生产了多少吨。And that is the prime measurement. 这就是主要的评估。What I mean by that? 我的意思是什么？Yes, there are many other measurements. 是的，还有很多别的评估方式。But if you met your quarter ton per hour you can get away with a murder, you didnt meet it nothing else matters. 但是，如果你达成你的季吨/小时，纵使犯了大错也没关系，如果你没达成，那其它的也不重要了。That is the meaning of prime measurement. 那就是主要评估的意义。And that is a fact. 而那是一个事实。Now lets combine it with another fact. 现在，让我们把它和另一个事实相结合。510.510。If you look on it you will see that not surprising at all since we are dealing with organizations and organizations are built from people, at the bottom of a cause and effect tree you will always find some generic statement about behavior of people. 如果你看着它，你一点都不会感到惊讶。因为我们正在处理组织问题，而组织是由人所组成，在因果树下面你会发现到有关人类行为的一般性描述。Now some people claim that you cannot make any generic statement about behavior of people. 有些人宣称你无法对人类行为作任何一般性的叙述。I dont believe so. 我不认为。And you will be the judge. 你来作裁判。 Lets read such a statement and you will tell me whether or not you agree. 让我们读这一段句子然后你告诉我你是否同意。510 reads most people behave in line with the way they are measured. 第510的句子写道“多数人会依照绩效评估的方式来决定他们的行为”。Do you agree? 你同意吗？Absolutely. 绝对是。As a matter of fact the word most here is because some professors have told me that they found a person 5 years ago that 事实上这里用“多数”这个字是因为有些教授曾经告诉我他们五年前发现有一个人Most means 99,99 - good enough. 多数的意思就是99.99，够好的了。Now look what is happening? 现在来看看发生了什么事？What is the meaning of cause and effect? 什么是因和果？I will rely on the fact that you are human beings that you have already learned how to live in a society. 你是人类，你知道如何在社会中生存。And because of it all the cause and effects governing organization, no matter which one, you know. 因此，因果主宰组织，不管它是哪一个，你知道的。And now to prove it, what I will do is, I will use the traditional way in physics, which is if that is a fact based on the known cause and effect, this must be the unavoidable result. 我将使用物理学上的传统方式来证明，如果因果关系是存在的，这必是不可避免的结果。In other words, I will do a prediction. 换句话说，我要做推论。 Lets do such a prediction, in other words I will read now the triangle. 让我们做这样的推论，换句话说，我现在要读此三角因果关系。If 500 exists and 510 exists, then unavoidably 515 must exist. 如果500存在，510也存在，不可避免的515必会存在。Lets read it and lets see whether or not your intuition, your experience will confirm that logic. 我们来读它，并看看你的直觉，经验，是否同意这逻辑。If we agree that for a long time ton per hour has been the prime operational measurement in the steel industry, and we also agree that most people behave in line with the way they are measured, then unavoidably what we must find in the steel industry is that departments do try to maximize their performance as measured by ton per hour. 如果我们同意长久以来吨/小时是钢铁业的主要生产绩效评估，同时我们也同意多数人们依据被评估的方式来表现，不可避免的我们会发现钢铁业的生产部门的确会设法提高吨/小时绩效。Do you agree? 你同意吗？Do you see what is meaning of common sense? 你了解常识的意义吗？Common sense has nothing to do with whether or not it is common. 常识跟它是否很普通并没有关系。It has to do whether or not the logic is rigorous and the cause and effect relationships are known. 和逻辑是否严谨与因果关系是否已知有关。That is the meaning of common sense.那就是常识的意义。Now lets see where it will lead us. 让我们看结果会怎样。Lets put some more facts about the steel industry. 让我们再为钢铁业增添一些事实。For example, fact number 520. 举例来说，事实第520。Which reads in most departments in the steel industry some items require less time per ton than others. 它写着“在钢铁业里多数部门有些项目每吨生产的时间比其它项目少”。What I mean by that is the following, for example, the molten white, red, hot steel is coming from the furnace, we want to make plates out of it. 我的意思如下，熔钢由高温炉流出，我们要把它压制成钢板。So we will streamline this molten steel into a department where there are huge rolls that are squeezing the steel into a plate. 所以我们将熔钢导入到压铸部门，在那里有巨大的滚轮将熔钢挤压成板状钢板。Now imagine that we want to do 2 inch plate, then we have to squeeze the steel until it is 2 inches. 现在假设我们想要生产2英吋钢板，我们必须将它挤压成2英吋。On the other hand we might want 1 inch plate, then we have to squeeze it some more. 另一方面我们可能想要1英吋钢板，那么我们必须将它再进一步挤压。If I am measuring by ton per hour, when do I get more ton per hour when I am producing 2 inch plates or when I am producing half an inch plates? 如果我是被以吨/小时来评估，我要怎么样才能得到较多的吨/小时？是生产两英吋钢板？还是生产一英吋钢板？You dont have to be a genius to answer that, right? 你不是天才也能回答这个问题，对吧？This is the same thing that happens in every department and this is the base to my statement, my observation here about reality that in most departments some items take mu