物流行业-某某年7月分析报告(ppt 97页).ppt

July 2001 COSCOIPOSUPPORTMATERIALS COSCOCommentsandA T KearneyRemarks ThecontentsofthisdocumentwerepreparedbyA T Kearneyandmaynotbeused alteredordisclosedtootherparties withoutthewrittenpermissionofA T Kearney TheinformationcontainedinthisdocumenthasbeenobtainedfromexternalsourceswhichA T Kearneybelievesarereliable However A T Kearneycanmakenorepresentationastotheaccuracyorcompletenessoftheinformationorprojectionsderivedtherefrom TableofContents ExecutiveSummaryMarketSize GrowthGlobalChinaServiceDemandGlobalTrendsChinaTrendsCompetitiveEnvironmentGlobalChinaRegulatoryEnvironmentInformationTechnologyAppendix ExecutiveSummary A T Kearney sdefinitionofthelogisticsservicesindustry Structuringandmanaging onbehalfofcargoowners solutionsinvolvingsomecombinationofpartsofthesupplychain i e transportation warehousing de consolidation etc Thelogisticsserviceindustryrepresentatremendousgrowthopportunity bothgloballyandinChina MarketCharacteristic Conclusion Customersareincreasinglydemandinghighvaluelogisticsservicesolutions requiringglobalreachandadvancedsupplychainmanagementcapabilities Increasingdemandforglobalreachandcapabilitiesfuelsconsolidationaslargefullserviceprovidersarepositioningthemselvesforsuccess China sentryintoWTOisexpectedtohavetwomainimplications thelogisticsmarketwillgrowrapidly andcompetitiveintensitywilldramaticallyincrease StrongITcapabilitiesisbecomingacorecapabilityoflogisticsservicesprovidersandiscriticaltobuildingalogisticsservicesbusiness MarketSize Growth ServiceDemand CompetitiveEnvironment RegulatoryEnvironment InformationTechnology Source A T Kearney ThegloballogisticsservicesmarketreachedanestimatedUS 190Bnin2000 TheChinamarketisstillsmallatUS 0 61Bn butwillbegrowingrapidlyatCAGR35 overthenextfiveyears TheChinalogisticsindustrywillbeshapedbyChina sentryintotheWTOandthesubsequentopeningofthemarkettoforeigncompetition IndustryScenario2006 RapidincreaseinM AactivitiesKeyalliancesformedwithinthenext2 3years Rapidexpansionofglobalplayersofferingsophisticatedend to endsolution includinglogistics transportationandIT Implementationofe commerceinitiativesandincreasingdependenceonITnetwork Mergers AcquisitionsandAlliances GlobalCompetitors Technology ThelogisticsmarketwillgrowrapidlyCompetitiveintensitywilldramaticallyincrease WTOEntry Source A T Kearney 1 MarketSize Growth ThegloballogisticsservicesmarketreachedanestimatedUS 190Bnin2000 ThegloballogisticsoutsourcingmarketisestimatedtoUS 190Bnin2000ThetransportationandrelatedexpendituresmarketreachedanestimatedUS 3 8Trillionin2000 andisexpectedtogrowatanannualrateof2 3 overthenext5yearsTheAsianlogisticsoutsourcingmarketisestimatedtoreachUS 31Bnin2001andisexpectedtogrowatCAGR39 overthenextfiveyearsThegreatestopportunitiesforoutsourcingareintransport warehousing andtransportmanagementThegrowthofthegloballogisticsservicesindustryismainlydrivenbyshippers propensitytooutsourcelogisticsservicesandorganictransportationmarketgrowthCustomerelectronics automotiveandapparelrepresentthemostattractiveopportunitiesforlogisticsservicesinChina TheChinamarketisstillsmallatUS 0 61Bn butwillbegrowingrapidlyatCAGR35 overthenextfiveyears TheChinalogisticsservicesmarketisstillsmallatUS 0 61Bn butwillbegrowingrapidlyoverthenext5yearsThelogisticsservicesindustryisstillatanearlystageofevolutioninChinaThetransportationandrelatedexpendituresareproportionatelyhigherinChinathaninmostdevelopedcountriesandNIEs indicatingamajorimprovementopportunityInCoastalChina demandforlogisticsservicesisexpectedtobestronginGuangdongandShanghaiInInlandChina thelargestdemandpotentialisinSichuanandtheHubei YangtzeriverregionGrowthinthelogisticsservicesindustryinChinawillmainlybedrivenbycontinuedmacroeconomicgrowthandincreasedpropensitytooutsourcelogisticsFavorablemacroeconomicoutlookPublicpolicyandspendingIncreasinginterestinoutsourcingforlogisticsneedsGrowingITandE business MarketSize Growth Global ThegloballogisticsoutsourcingmarketisestimatedtoUS 190Bnin2000 GlobalTransportationandLogisticsMarketSize 2000 Transportationandrelatedactivitieshandledbymanufacturers wholesalers retailersthemselves e g privatefleet privatewarehousing Discretesetsoftransportationandrelatedservicesoutsourcedbymanufacturers wholesalers retailers e g publicwarehousingetc Combinationof transportationandrelatedservices provisionedby3rdpartylogisticsserviceproviders US 3 800Bn Outsourced US 190Bn Globaltransportationandrelatedexpenditures Globaloutsourcedtransportationandrelatedservices Globallogisticsoutsourcingmarket 需要更多的分析报告 请到 US Bn ThetransportationandrelatedexpendituresmarketreachedanestimatedUS 3 8Trillionin2000 andisexpectedtogrowatanannualrateof2 3 overthenext5years Note 1 AsiaincludesJapan HongKong Korea SingaporeandTaiwanSource BowersoxandCalantone CSFB A T KearneyAnalysis TransportationandRelatedExpendituresbyRegion 2000 TransportationandRelatedExpendituresbyFunction 2000 US Bn Total US 3 837Bn Others 1 4 Asia 1 2 2 Europe 2 6 NorthAmerica 4 0 3 424 3 837 4 389 Warehousing 304Bn Transport 2 204Bn Others 55Bn Shipper Related 20Bn Inventory 1 102Bn Admin 152Bn CAGR2000 2006 TheAsianlogisticsoutsourcingmarketisestimatedtoreachUS 31Bnin2001andisexpectedtogrowatCAGR39 overthenextfiveyears Note AsiaincludesChina Japan HonkKong Korea SingaporeandTaiwanSource BowersoxandCalantone CSFB A T KearneyAnalysis LogisticsOutsourcingMarketinAsia GrossRevenue US Bn CAGR 99 01 38 CAGR 01 06 39 Thegreatestopportunitiesforoutsourcingareintransport warehousing andtransportmanagement Transport Warehousing TransportManagement IT SupplementaryLogisticServices PurchaseOrderManagement LogisticsManagement 30 47 48 85 20 40 39 76 23 2 5 16 ofrespondentsoutsourcing1998 ofrespondentsplanedoutsourcing2003 13 8 OutsourcingbyFunction Resourcerequire ments Complexity Note Thepercentagemaynotaddupto100 duetoroundingSource BasedonseveralA T Kearneystudies including Worldwidestudycomprising280participants automotive19 electronics25 retail27 chemicals29 Europeanstudycomprising500participants retail26 food beverage26 commodities22 machinery12 automotive7 electronics high tech4 Outsourcingofnon corebusinessactivities Organicgrowthoftransportationmarkets IncreasedcomplexityofglobalsupplychainsRecognitionbymanyshippersthatsupplychainstrategymaybeakeycompetitiveadvantageWillingnesstooutsourcewhenlogisticsnotseenascorecompetencyDevelopmentofsuperiorlogisticscapabilitybyafew3PLs GrowthindemandfortransportationservicesexpandswithinternationaltradegrowthGlobalizationofmanyindustriesmeansgoodsneedtomoveoverlongerdistancesatfasterspeedswithhigherreliability GrowthinLogisticsServices Source UBSWarburg IDC GrowthDrivers Details 1 2 Thegrowthofthegloballogisticsservicesindustryismainlydrivenbyshippers propensitytooutsourcelogisticsservicesandorganictransportationmarketgrowth Consumerelectronics automotiveandapparelrepresentthemostattractiveopportunitiesforlogisticsservicesinChina Note 1 Sizeofcirclerelativetosegmentsizein20002 AnalysisisindicativeonlySource A T Kearneyfieldinterviewsandresearch High Low Growth 2001 2006 Remarks Industry Low High ConsumerElectronics Apparel Automotive OutsourcingPropensity Tobacco Liquor PrimaryGoods OpportunityAssessmentbyIndustry Chemicals Materials Furniture Machinery Addmarketandtrendsanalysisbyindustry MarketSize Growth China TheChinalogisticsservicesmarketisstillsmallatUS 0 61Bn butwillbegrowingrapidlyoverthenext5years LogisticsOutsourcingMarket GrossRevenue 2000 US Bn Note AsiaincludesChina Japan HongKong SingaporeandTaiwanSource BowersoxandCalantone CSFB A T KearneyEstimates CAGR 35 190 23 0 61 ChinaLogisticsServiceMarket US Bn ThelogisticsservicesindustryisstillatanearlystageofevolutioninChina Characteristics EmergingdemandforoutsourcedlogisticsservicesLowvalueaddedservicessuchastransportandwarehousingarethemajortypeofservicesoutsourcedTraditionalin housebehaviourbeingimpacted FastgrowthoflogisticsuserbaseandhigherrequirementforbroaderservicesLargenumberofservicesproviderscompetingforcustomersandhumanresourcesMosthighvalueaddedservicesarefreeandprovidedassellingpoints LogisticsoutsourcingbecomescommonpracticeandanimportantleverforcompetitionConsolidatedservicemarketwithafewestablishedmarketleadersLogisticspenetrateinsupplychainandreplacetraditionalbusinessmodels Globallogisticsintegratorsprovideone stopsolutionworldwideSpecializationandclosecooperationamonggloballogisticsserviceprovidersOptimizedallocationandintegrationofresourcesalongthesupplychain Stage Emergence Growth Penetration Globalization WorldLeading US ChinaToday Source A T Kearney 需要更多的分析报告 请到 WarehousingandDistribution Trucking RailFreightAlthoughHeavilyUsed RailwayFreightHasLongTransitTimesandServiceReliabilityIsPoorRailwayContainersAreNotCompatibleWithShippingCompanyContainers Airline CustomsBrokerage CourierLimitedPresenceofForeignFirmsAsJVE G DHLSinotransRegionalSegregationinOperation LogisticsCenterandFreightForwarding Shipping Thedomesticwarehousingmarketiscurrentlysmallandover suppliedwithbasicwarehousesprovidingvirtuallynovalue addedservicesSomeconsolidationjuststartedamongthelargewarehousingcompanies RivertransportationhasdeclinedMostvesselsarecharacterizedbylowspeedandhighenergycosts Truckingcompaniesareonlyallowedtooperateinrestrictedregions Governmenthasestablished15FreeTradeZonesandsomelogisticscentersaresetupthereInlandtransportationishandledbydomesticfreightforwarderwhoisusuallysub contractedbytheinternationalfreightforwarder SevendomesticairlinesdominateregionaloperationsDesignatedforeigncarriersaregivenamaximumentitlementof50tonnesperweek ManycustomsclearingbrokeragefirmsandconsiderableconfusionaboutrolesCustomsclearingprocedurestookatleast 1daypreviouslybutexpectedtobeshortenedto1hour ThelogisticsservicesindustryisstillatanearlystageofevolutioninChina continued Source A T KearneyAnalysis TransportationandrelatedexpendituresareproportionatelyhigherinChinathaninmostdevelopedcountriesandNIEs indicatingamajorimprovementopportunity TotalTransportationandRelatedExpendituresand ofGDP 2000 Note 1 VAS Value added services 2 Includingpackaging admin informationservices ect Source BowersoxandCalantone CSFB IMF1997study Chinainfobank A T KearneyAnalysis US Bn ChinaTransportationandRelatedExpendituresBreakdownbyFunction 2000 Total US 248Bn US Bn 1 2 DemandGrowth InCoastalChina demandforlogisticsservicesisexpectedtobestronginGuangdongandShanghai High Low Hebei Beijing Tianjin 4 BeijingistheNo 1aircargocenterinChina Inaddition Beijing shi techindustry whichneedsalotofairtransportation isdevelopingveryfastOver80 ofthevolumethroughTianjinportareagriculturalproducts furniture metalhardwareandrawmaterials allbeinglowvalueproducts Inaddition mostshippersareinpoorfinancialconditionsandareverypricesensitive Shandong Qingdao 4 Qingdaohasseveralfamouslocalcompanies suchasHaier HiSense AukmaandQingdaoBeer TheyaremorequalityorientedandlesspricesensitiveFrozenproductsaccountfor15 20 ofthevolume Qualityrequirementsforfrozenproductsareveryhighintermsoftimingandhandlingcare Hence frozenproductsshipperstendtobelesspricesensitiveandmorequalityconcernedFootwearandgarmentsaccountforsignificantportion SomelargecustomerssuchasPaylessShoes No 1customerofCOSCOinvolume requiresaccurateshippingtimeandfullrangeofsophisticated3PLservicesfromP Omanagement tradeconsultingtospacebooking warehousingandtransportation Province LogisticsDemand SelectedProvincesinCoastalChina Guangdong DemandSize 5 Remarks Majorexportsareprocessingoflowervalue addedproducts nospecialrequirementforlogisticsquality Roadtransportationisconvenient oftencontainerizedinfactorytoreducecost lessneedforwarehousing consolidationElectronicsindustryisboominginDongguan whichhassomeleadingcompanieslikeHuawei potentiallargeprofitablecustomers Strong Weak Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang 5 Shanghaiisthefastgrowingeconomic financialcenterinChina whichhassomemajorMNCssuchasSGM Acer Philips etc Theyarematuredcustomersoflogisticsservicesandlesspricesensitive Ontheotherhand togetthedealsfromthemusuallyneedstoinvolvehighlevelnegociationLargecompaniesinShanghaiandnearbyareasaremainlyJVsofautomobileandconsumerelectronicsindustry whichhavehighproductvalueandlowerpricesensitivity Source A T Kearneyfieldinterviewsandanalysis DemandSize Sichuan Chengdu Havethe3rdlargestdistributioncenterinChina thelargestpopulation andimportantheavyindustrybaseThelogisticsindustrytherehasalreadyattractedinterestofforeignlargeshipperslikeIkeaandinvestorsincludingHutchisonWhampoaLocatedinmountainareas roadtransportinfrastructureisinconvenient sohighlyrelyingonrailtransport Chongqing 2 Agriculturalproducts metalproductsandmotorcycles whichtotallyaccountforover80 oftheexportvolume arealllow valueproducts pricesensitiveandhaveflatgrowthUnderdevelopedinfrastructure esp roadandrailtransportationhavelimitedforeigninvestmentsinthisregion Cargoesusuallytransportedbybarges whichisthecheapestmode Province IninlandChina thelargestdemandpotentialisinSichuanandtheHubei Yangtzeriverregion LogisticsDemand SelectedProvincesinInlandChina Yunnan 2 DemandGrowth Remarks Mostimportantexportindustryistobacco whichhashighprofitmargin highqualityrequirementforlogisticsservices andnotverypricesensitiveExportsforwood woodenmaterialsandfurniture whichaccountedforover30 ofexportvolumebefore arelargelyreducedduetonewlyimposedgovernmentsanctiononcuttingtrees High Low Strong Weak Source A T Kearneyfieldinterviewsandanalysis Hubei YangtzeRiverRegion 3 Exportsarelow valueproductsincludingtobacco cotton chemicalsandsteelmaterialsManyimportsarematerialforJVs e g CitreonandDongfengCummins ofwhichdecisionsareusuallymadeoverseasMarketisveryfragmentedandshippersgenerallyhavesmallscale volumeNowarehouses pilingcenterswithmoderncontainerhandlingcapacityandadvancedITstructureareavailable canbeapotentialdevelopmentarea 3 GrowthinthelogisticsservicesindustryinChinawillmainlybedrivenbycontinuedmacroeconomicgrowthandincreasedpropensitytooutsourcelogistics GrowthDriver Implication TheChineseeconomyisexpectedtogrowatCAGR7 overthenextfiveyears Increasedinternationalanddomestictradewilldrivedemandforlogisticsservices PublicpolicyandspendingsupportsimprovementsinChina slogisticsinfrastructure providingopportunitiesforfurtherexpansionoflogisticsserviceproviders Capableforeignserviceprovidersarelimitedinbusinessscopebyregulation andtheirfullentryafterWTOwilldrivetheindustrytowardinternationalbestpractices ThereisincreasinginterestamongChina basedenterprisesinoutsourcingforlogisticsservices OverseasbusinessesareextendingtheirsupplychainsdeeperintoChina ThefastgrowingmarketinonlineB2Btransactionsprovidesanadditionalmarketsegmentforlogisticsservices FavorableGrowthOutlookfortheChinaLogisticsServicesIndustry FavorableMacroEconomicOutlook PublicPolicyandSpending IncreasingInterestinOutsourcingforLogisticsNeeds GrowingITandE Business 1 2 3 4 需要更多的分析报告 请到 TheChineseeconomyisexpectedtogrowatCAGR7 overthenextfiveyears Source Chinainfobank A T KearneyAnalysis ProjectionofChina sGDPGrowthandStructure RMB Bn ContinuousgrowthinGDPindicatesarobustandfastgrowingmacroeconomy providingopportunitiesforsophisticatedlogisticsserviceprovidersTheeconomicstructurewillbecontinuouslyoptimizedandupgradedLogisticsisdirectlycorrelatedwiththemanufacturingindustry thereforegrowthofsecondaryindustrieswillleadtothegrowthoflogisticsservicesImprovedservicesindustrieswillalsohaveapositiveimpactonthelogisticssectorImprovedsupportiveservicessuchaslegal accounting etc Improvedtelecommunicationcapabilities Remarks Secondary 7 Tertiary 9 CAGR 01 06 Total 7 Primary 3 13 367 9 560 FavorableMacroEconomicOutlook 1 Demandforlogisticsservicescomesfrombothinternationalanddomestictrade Source HongKongTradeDevelopmentCouncilResearch Chinainfobank DemandforLogisticsServices MoreInternationalTrade MoreDomesticTrade InternationaltradeInternationaltradehassustainedtheglobaleconomicfluctuationandkeptfastgrowinginthepast5yearsItisprojectedtogrowataCAGRof7 5 withtotaltradevaluereachingUS 680Bnin2005ExportsExpectedtorisebyanadditional2 4 peryearoverthefirstfiveyearsofWTOentryShareasworldexportsisprojectedtorisefromcurrent3 5 to7 3 in2005ImportsProjectedriseofUS 21 3BnafterWTOProjectedannualgrowthratewillbemarginallyfasterthanexport DomesticTradeCAGRofretailsalesofconsumergoodsinthe Ninth5Year was11 PositiveoutlookduetocontinuouslygrowingpurchasingpowerDevelopmentofchainstoresSalesrevenueofchainstorecorporationshasexperiencedoubledigitrisefrom1997MultinationalchainstoreshavebeenaggressivelyimprovingtheirpresenceinChinamarketInter citytradeCurrentlymorethan50 oftheforeignindustrialandretailfirmsdistributedtheirproductsinmorethan50citiesInter citytradewillbefrequentafterWTO FavorableMacroEconomicOutlook 1 TheStateEconomicandTradeCommissionhasestablishedamasterplanfordevelopinglogisticsservicesinChina StateEconomicandTradeCommissionLogisticsIndustryTradePlan Source BusinessAlert C 30PilotCenters Inter regionalNetworks SupplyChainSystems Selectsuitableenterprisesinvariouskeycitiestoestablish30pilotlogisticsanddistributioncenters 10NationalEnterprises About10specializedkeyenterpriseswithnationallogisticsanddistributionnetworkswillbedeveloped Realignassetstoforminter regional inter sectorandinter ownershiplogisticsanddistributionnetworks Effortswillbemadetoexplorethepossibilityofusing3PLanddistributionenterprisestobuildsupplychainsystems andtobringfacilitiesandservicesoflogisticscompaniesclosertoadvancedinternationalstandards PublicPolicyandSpending 2 AwidearrayofgovernmentsupportedlogisticsinfrastructuredevelopmentprogramsareunderwayacrossChina Source Chinainfobank ExamplesofGovernmentInitiativestoImproveLogisticsInfrastructure Anumberofnationallogisticscentersareunderconstruction withreasonablesize standardizedoperation andmodernfacilities CoastalLargeCities LogisticsCenter InlandAreas Road Railway ModernthirdpartylogisticsanddistributionbaseItsmainbodywillbelinkedto7railwaysandhundredsofrailwaytransitpointsExpectedtoserveforthedispatchofover90 ofdailynecessitiesinthecityAlsoserveeasternChinaandthewholecountry ShanghaiCommercialLogisticsCenter PublicPolicyandSpending 2 Highwaydensitywillgrowtoabout1650km 10000sq kmi