《就业、利息和货币通论》中英对照完整版.doc

JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES约翰梅纳德凯恩斯THE GENERAL THEORY OF EMPLOYMENT INTEREST AND MONEY就业、利息和货币通论Reprinted from the English Edition by Macmillan and Co., Ltd. 1936据麦克米伦图书股份有限公司1936年英文版重印PREFACE序THIS book is chiefly addressed to my fellow economists. I hope that it will be intelligible to others. But its main purpose is to deal with difficult questions of theory, and only in the second place with the applications of this theory to practice, For if orthodox economics is at fault, the error is to be found not in the superstructure, which has been erected with great care for logical consistency, but in a lack of clearness and of generality in the premisses. Thus I cannot achieve my, object of persuading economists to re-examine critically certain of their basic assumptions except by a highly abstract argument and also by much controversy. I wish there could have been less of the latter. But I have thought it important, not only to explain my own point of view, but also to show in what respects it departs from the prevailing theory. Those, who are strongly wedded to what I shall call (the classical theory., will fluctuate, I expect, between a belief that I am quite wrong and a belief that I am saying nothing new, It is for others to determine if either of these or the third alternative is right. My controversial passages are aimed at providing some material for an answer; and I must ask forgiveness if, in the pursuit of sharp distinctions, my controversy is itself too keen. I myself held with conviction for many years the theories which I now attack, and I am not, I think, ignorant of their strong points.本书主要是为我的同行经济学家所写，我希望其他人也能看懂。但是，本书的主要目的是探讨理论上的难题，至于该理论在实际中的应用则居于次要地位。因为，如果正统经济学有错误之处，那么其错误之处不在于建立在精心构筑的逻辑一致性基础之上的上层建筑，而在于其假设前提缺乏明确性和普适性。因此，除非通过高度抽象的论证和进行大量辩论，我无法达到我的目的，即规劝经济学家批判性地重新审视他们的某些基本假设。我本希望这种论证和辩论能少些，但我认为重要之处在于：不仅要阐释我自己的观点，还要指出我的观点在哪些方面有别于现在流行的理论。我预料，那些深深沉迷于我称之为“古典理论”的人将彷徨于两种意见，一种意见认为我完全错了，另一种意见认为我并未提出任何新见解。这两种意见，或许还有第三种意见，究竟孰是孰非还要由他人予以判断。我所写的辩论段落旨在为作出判断提供一些素材。另外，如果我在辩论中的文字过于尖锐，我请求谅解，那不过是为了让分歧更为明确。对于我现在抨击的理论，我本人曾多年奉为圭臬，因而，我想我不至于忽视该理论的有力之处。The matters at issue are of an importance which cannot be exaggerated. But, if my explanations are right, it is my fellow economists, riot the general public, whom I must first convince. At this stage of the argument the general public, though welcome at the debate, are only eavesdroppers at an attempt by an economist to bring to an issue the deep divergencesof opinion between fellow economists which have for the time being almost destroyed the practical influence of economic theory, and will, until they are resolved, continue to do so. 所辩论问题的重要性是无以复加的，但是，如果我的阐释是正确的，我必须首先说服我的同行经济学家，而不是去鼓噪普通民众。在当前这个辩论阶段，虽然欢迎民众参加讨论，但他们只能作为旁听者，倾听一位经济学家陈述他与同行经济学家之间深刻的观点分歧，这些分歧在目前几乎摧毁了经济理论的实践影响力，而且，在这些分歧得到解决之前，这种破坏作用还将持续下去。The relation between this book and my Treatise on Money, which I published five years ago, is probably clearer to myself than it will be to others; and what in my own mind is a natural evolution in a line of thought which I have been pursuing for several years, may sometimes strike the reader as a confusing change of view, This difficulty is not made less by certain changes in terminology which I have felt compelled to make. These changes of language I have pointed out in the course of the following pages; but the general relationship between the two books can be expressed briefly as follows. When I began to write my Treatise on Money I was still moving along the traditional lines of regarding the influence of money as something so to speak separate from the general theory of supply and demand. When I finished it, I had made some progress towards pushing monetary theory back to becoming a theory of output as a whole. But my lack of emancipation from preconceived ideas showed itself in what now seems to me to be the outstanding fault of the theoretical parts of that work (namely, Books III PREFACE and IV), that I failed to deal thoroughly with the effects of changes in the level of output. My so-called fundamental equations were an instantaneous picture taken on the assumption of a given output. They attempted to show how, assuming the given output, forces could develop which involved a profit-dis-equilibrium and thus required a change in the level of output. But the dynamic development, as distinct from the instantaneous picture, was left incomplete and extremely confused. This book, on the other hand, has evolved into what is primarily a study of the forces which determine changes in the scale of output and employment as a whole; and, whilst it is found that money enters into the economic scheme in an essential and peculiar manner, technical monetary detail falls into the background. A monetary economy, we shall find, is essentially one in which changing views about the future are capable of influencing the quantity of employment and not merely its direction. But our method of analysing the economic behaviour of the present under the influence of changing ideas about the future is one which depends on the interaction of supply and demand, and is in this way linked up with our fundamental theory of value. We are thus led to a more general theory, which includes the classical theory with which we are familiar, as a special case. 本书与我五年前出版的货币论之间的关系，我可能会比其他人认识地更加透彻。本是我经过数年求索而得到的思想上的自然演进，有时却被读者看成使人深感迷惑的观点变更。尽管我迫于需要对名词术语作了某些变动，但对消除读者的困惑并不会起太大作用。我将在下面的行文中指出用词上的这些变化，至于两书之间的关系可以简要总结如次。当我开始撰写货币论时，我依然沿袭传统思路，把货币的影响看成是独立于供给和需求的一般理论之外的东西。该书完成之时，我在将货币理论拓展成总产量理论方面取得了一些进展。然而，由于我当时尚未摆脱传统理论的先入之见，因而未能透彻探讨产出水平改变的后果，这正是该书理论部分（即第三编和第四编）的显著缺点。我所谓的“基本方程”不过是在既定产出假设下的瞬时图，他们试图表明，假设产出是既定的，为什么会有各种力量造成利润失衡，产出水平也因此而必定发生变动。但不同于对瞬时图的分析，该书对于动态发展的论述是不完备而且极其混乱的。与此相反，本书则演进为一本主要研究哪些力量决定整体产出和就业规模的著作，而且，在本书中，虽然货币在经济体系中占有极其重要和特殊的位置，但是对其技术细节则不作论述。我们将会看到，货币经济本质上是这样一种制度，在其中，对未来看法的改变不仅可以影响就业的方向，还可以影响就业的数量。但在考虑未来想法改变的影响的前提下，我们分析现实经济行为的方法仍以供给和需求的相互作用为基础。基于此，我们的分析方法和基本的价值理论就能相互结合，并因此而得到一个更具一般性的理论，我们所熟悉的古典理论则成为这个一般理论中的特例。The writer of a book such as this treading along unfamiliar paths, is extremely dependent on criticism and conversation if he is to avoid an undue proportion of mistakes. It is astonishing what foolish things one can temporarily believe if one thinks too long alone, particularly in economics (along with the other moral sciences), where it is often impossible to bring ones ideas to a conclusive test either formal or experimental. In this book, even more perhaps than in writing my Treatise on Money, I have depended on the constant advice and constructive criticism of Mr. R. F. Kahn. There is a great deal in this book which would not have taken the shape it has except at his suggestion. I have also had much help from Mrs. Joan Robinson, Mr. R. G. Hawtrey and Mr. R. F. Harrod, who have read the whole of the proof-sheets. The index has been compiled by Mr. D. M. BensusanButt of Kings College, Cambridge. 撰写像这样一本自辟蹊径的著作，如果作者想避免过多的错误，那么他在很大程度上必须依靠批评和辩论。如果一个人单独思考的时间太长，那么他短时期内对愚蠢东西的相信甚至会达到令人吃惊的程度，对于经济学（以及其它伦理道德科学）尤其如此，因为在这些研究领域，经常无法对个人提出的理念进行决定性的规范性或实验性的检验。本书比我写作货币论时更加得力于RF卡恩先生经常性的建议和建设性的批评意见。如果没有他的建议，本书的很多地方不会不会取得现在的进展。我同样得到了琼罗宾逊夫人、RG霍特里先生和RF哈罗德先生的许多帮助，他们阅读了全部清样。剑桥大学国王学院的DM本苏珊巴特先生编写了本书的附录。The composition of this book has been for the author a long struggle of escape, and so must the reading of it be for most readers if the authors assault upon them is to be successful,-a struggle of escape from habitual modes of thought and expression. The ideas which are here expressed so laboriously are extremely simple and should be obvious. The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for those brought up as most of us have been, into every corner of our minds.对作者而言，本书的写作是一个为了摆脱传统思想而长期奋斗的过程。如果作者对这些传统思维和表达方式的攻击是成功的，那么大多数读者在阅读本书时也会有同感。本书以如此复杂的方式表述的思想是极其简单和明晰的。困难不在于新思想而在于摆脱旧思想。对于大多数像我们这样由其哺育成长的人们而言，旧思想已经遍布在我们头脑的各个角落。J. M. KEYNESJM凯恩斯December 13, 19351935年12月13日CONTENTS目 录BOOK I第一编INTRODUCTION引论CHAPTER 1第一章THE GENERAL THEORY 3何谓通论 3CHAPTER 2第二章THE POSTULATES OF THE CLASSICAL ECONOMICS 4古典经济系的假定条件 4CHAPTER 3第三章THE PRINCIPLE OF EFFECTIVE DEMAND 23有效需求原理 23BOOK II第二编DEFINITIONS AND IDEAS定义与理念CHAPTER 4第四章THE CHOICE OF UNITS 37单位的选择 37CHAPTER 5第五章EXPECTATION AS DETERMINING OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT 46决定产出与就业的预期 46CHAPTER 6第六章THE DEFINITION OF INCOME, SAVING AND INVESTMENT 52收入、储蓄和投资的定义 52Appendix on User Cost 66关于使用者成本的附录 66CHAPTER 7第七章THE MEANING OF SAVING AND INVESTMENT, FURTHER CONSIDERED 74对储蓄和投资涵义的进一步考察 74BOOK III第三编THE PROPENSITY TO CONSUME消费倾向CHAPTER 8第八章THE PROPENSITY TO CONSUME: I. THE OBJECTIVE FACTORS 89消费倾向：I. 主观因素 89CHAPTER 9第九章THE PROPENSITY TO CONSUME: II. THE SUBJECTIVE FACTORS T07消费倾向：II. 客观因素 107CHAPTER 10第10章THE MARGINAL PROPENSITY TO CONSUME AND THE MULTIPLIER 113边际消费倾向与乘数 113BOOK IV第四编THE INDUCEMENT TO INVEST投资诱导CHAPTER 11第11章THE MARGINAL EFFICIENCY OF CAPITAL 135资本边际效率 135CHAPTER 12第12章THE STATE OF LONG-TERM EXPECTATION 147长期预期状态 147CHAPTER 13第13章THE GENERAL THEORY OF THE RATE OF INTEREST 165利息率的一般理论 165CHAPTER 14第14章THE CLASSICAL THEORY OF THE RATE OF INTEREST 175古典学派的利息率理论 175Appendix on the Rate of Interest in Marshalls Principles of Economics, Ricardos Principles of Political Economy and elsewhere 186附录：马歇尔经济学原理、李嘉图赋税原理及其它著作中的利息率理论 186CHAPTER 15第15章THE PSYCHOLOGICAL AND BUSINESS INCENTIVES to LIQUIDITY 194流动性偏好的心理动机和交易动机 194CHAPTER 16第16章SUNDRY OBSERVATIONS ON THE NATURE OF CAPITAL 210关于资本性质的几点考察 210CHAPTER 17第17章THE ESSENTIAL PROPERTIES OF INTEREST AND MONEY 222利息和货币的主要性质 222CHAPTER 18第18章THE GENERAL THEORY OF EMPLOYMENT RE-STATED 245一般就业理论的重新表述 245BOOK V第五编MONEY-WAGES AND PRICES货币工资与价格CHAPTER 19第19章CHANGES IN MONEY-WAGES 257货币工资的变动 257Appendix on Prof. Pigous Theory of Unemployment 272附录：关于庇古教授的失业论 272CHAPTER 20第20章THE EMPLOYMENT FUNCTION 280就业函数 280CHAPTER 21第21章THE THEORY OF PRICES 292价格理论 292BOOK VI第六编SHORT NOTES SUGGESTED BY THE GENERAL THEORY通论引发的几点简短评论CHAPTER 22第22章NOTES ON THE TRADE CYCLE 313略论经济周期 313CHAPTER 23第23章NOTES ON MERCANTILISM, THE USURY LAWS, STAMPED MONEY AND THEORIES OF UNDER-CONSUMPTION 333略论重商主义、禁止高利贷法、加印货币以及消费不足论 333CHAPTER 24第24章CONCLUDING NOTES ON THE SOCIAL PHILOSOPHY TOWARDS WHICH THE GENERAL THEORY MIGHT LEAD 372对通论引出的社会哲学的简要总结 372INDEX 385索引 385BOOK I第一编INTRODUCTION引论CHAPTER I THE GENERAL THEORY第一章：何谓通论 I HAVE called this book the General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, placing the emphasis on the prefix general. The object of such a title is to contrast the character of my arguments and conclusions with those of the classical “The classical economists” was a name invented by Marx to corer Ricardo and James Mill and their predecessors, that is to say for the founders of the theory which culminated in the Ricardian economies. I have become accustomed, perhaps perpetrating a solecism, to include in “the classical school” the followers of Ricardo, those, that is to say, who adopted and perfected the theory of the Ricardian economics, including (for example) J. S. Mill, Marshall, Edgeworth and Prof. Pigou. theory of the subject, upon which I was brought up and. which dominates the economic thought, both practical and theoretical, of the governing and academic classes of this generation, as it has for a hundred years past. I shall argue that the postulates of the classical theory are applicable to a special case only and not to the general case, the situation which it assumes being a limiting point of the possible positions of equilibrium. Moreover, the characteristics of the special case assumed by the classical theory happen not to be those of the economic society in which we actually live, with the result that its teaching is misleading and disastrous if we attempt to apply it to the facts of experience. 我将本书命名为“就业、利息和货币通论”，其着重之处在于首词“通”字。这一命名的用意在于将我的论点和结论中的特殊之处同古典理论“古典经济学家”是马克思首创的术语，用以泛指李嘉图和詹姆斯穆勒及其前辈们，也就是指集大成于李嘉图的那种经济理论的创始人们。也可能是犯了用语不当的错误，我已经习惯于将李嘉图的追随者们，即那些接受并完善李嘉图式经济理论的人归属于“古典学派”，其中包括（例如）JS穆勒、马歇尔、埃奇沃斯和庇古教授。对于同类问题的观点和结论加以互证。我本人也是在古典理论的熏陶下成长起来的。在过去的百余年中，无论在实践上还是在理论上，古典理论一直主导我这一代统治阶层和学术界的经济思想。我将要阐明的是：古典理论的假定只适用于特定情形而非普遍情形，古典理论所假定的情形只是各种可能的均衡状态中的一个极限点，而且，古典理论所设定的特殊情形的特性恰恰不是我们实际生活的经济社会的特性。结果，如果我们试图将其运用于对经验事实的分析，古典理论的教义将会引导我们误入歧途，甚至带来灾难性的后果。CHAPTER 2 THE POSTULATES OF THE CLASSICAL ECONOMICS 第二章 古典经济学的假定条件MOST treatises on the theory of Value and Production are primarily concerned with the distribution of a given volume of employed resources between different uses and with the conditions which, assuming the employment of this quantity of resources, determine their relative rewards and the relative values of their products This is in the Ricardian tradition. For Ricardo expressly repudiated any interest in the amount of the national dividend, as distinct from its distribution. In this he was assessing correctly the character of his own theory. But his successors, less clear-sighted, have used the classical theory in discussions concerning the causes of wealth. Vide Ricardos letter to Malthus of October 9, 1820: Political Economy you think is an enquiry into the nature and causes of wealth-I think it should be called an enquiry into the laws which determine the division of the produce of industry amongst the classes who concur in its formation. No law can be laid down respecting quantity, but a tolerably correct one can be laid down respecting proportions. Every day I am more satisfied that the former enquiry is vain and delusive, and the latter only the true objects of the science. .大多数关于价值论和生产论的著述均主要既关注既定量的已用资源在不同用途之间如何配置，也关注在使用这一既定量资源的前提下，各种资源的相对报酬及其产品的相对价值如何决定这符合李嘉图的传统。因为李嘉图明确表示对国民收入的总量不感兴趣，他关注的是国民收入的分配。在更关注分配这一点上，李嘉图正确地评价了其理论的特色之处。他的后继者，由于眼光不够清晰，却将古典理论运用于对财富来源问题的讨论。李嘉图于1820年10月9日致马尔萨斯的信中写道：“你认为政治经济学是对财富性质和来源的探究而我认为它应该探究社会各阶层依据何种法则分配他们共同生产的社会产品。关于国民收入的总量并无法则可言，但关于国民收入的分配比例还是存在一个大致正确的法则。我每一天都更确信前者的探究是徒然和虚妄的，而后者才是科学研究的真正目标所在。”。The question, also, of the volume of the available resources, in the sense of the size of the employable population, the extent of natural wealth and the accumulated capital equipment, has often been treated descriptively. But the pure theory of what determines the actual employment of the available resources has seldom been examined in great detail. To say that it has not been examined at all would, of course, be absurd. For every discussion concerning fluctuations of employment, of which there have been many, has been concerned with it. I mean, not that the topic has been overlooked, but that the fundamental theory underlying it has been deemed so simple and obvious that it has received, at the most, a bare mention For example, Prof. Pigou in the Economics of Welfare (4th ed. p. 127) writes (my italics): Throughout this discussion, except when the contrary is expressly stated, the fact that some resources are generally unemployed against the will of the owners is ignored. This does not affect the substance of the argument, while it simplifies its exposition. Thu-, whilst Ricardo expressly disclaimed any attempt to deal with the amount of the national dividend as a whole, Prof. Pigou., in a book which is specifically directed to the problem of the national dividend, maintains that the same theory holds good when there is some involuntary unemployment as in the case of full employment.同样，对于可用资源数量的问题，例如可就业人口的规模，自然财富的丰瘠以及累积的资本设备的多寡，一向采用描述的方法予以处理。但是，关于何种力量决定可用资源实际使用数量的纯理论在很多细节上并未得到检验。当然，要说这种理论全然未得到检验未免荒谬，因为讨论资源使用量的波动的论述为数甚多，而每种论述都涉及到前述纯理论。我并不是说这个主题被忽视了，而是要指出这一主题所依托的基本理论一向被认为如此简单和明显，以致最多只需稍作提及例如，庇古教授在福利经济学（第四版，第127页）中写道（着重号是我加的）：“在整个讨论中，除了明确指出的例外情形，我们忽略通常存在的某些资源愿意但并未得到使用的事实。这非但不影响论证的实质，反而可以简化对论点的阐释。”两相对照，李嘉图总是明确放弃将国民所得总量作为一个整体予以研究的任何企图，而庇古教授在一本研究国民所得问题的专著中主张同一理论既适用于存在某些非自愿失业的情形，也适用于充分就业的情形。IThe classical theory of employmentsupposedly simple and obvious-has been based, I think, on two fundamental postulates, though practically without discussion namely:我认为，尽管实际上并未加以讨论，但被视作简单和明了的古典就业理论奠基于两个基本假定之上，即：I. The wage is equal to the marginal product of labour. 工资等于劳动的边际产品That is to say, the wage of an employed person is equal to the value which would be lost if employment were to be reduced by one unit (after deducting any other costs which this reduction of output would avoid); subject, however, to the qual