国际经济学2 金融部分 - 复制.docx

重点：1215单元Chapter 12National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments一：National income accountsNational income = the value of domestic production = expenditure on domestic productionY = Cd + Id + Gd + EX= (C-Cf) + (I-If) + (G-Gf) + EX= C + I + G + EX (Cf + If +Gf)= C + I + G + EX IM = C + I + G + CACA = current account = (Y C - G)-I = S I二：balance of payments accounts(此处出选择判断类)An international transaction involves two parties, and each transaction enters the accounts twice: once as a credit (+) and once as a debit (-).1, current account: accounts for flows of goods and services (imports and exports).2, financial account: Accounts for flows of financial assets (financial capital).,3,capital account: flows of special categories of assets (capital): typically non-market, non-produced, or intangible assets like debt forgiveness, copyrights and trademarks。Financial account includes official reserve assets, all other assets and statistical discrepancy.Chapter 13Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach一：基本标价法，direct quote and indirect quote（能力要求，会看出货币appreciation or depreciation）注意明确指出是哪种货币。二: interest parity (非常重要，极有可能出大题；出题方向，两种model 的分析)Uncovered interest parity1,conclusion: R$ = R + (Ee$/ - E$/)/E$/R$ = expected rate of return of dollar deposits = interest rate on dollar depositsR = interest rate on euro deposits; Ee$/ = expected exchange rate.E$/= current exchange rate; Ee$/ - E$/ = expected rate of appreciation of the euro(Ee$/ - E$/)/E$/ = expected rate of return on euro deposits重点：不均衡状态下的分析，(下2 and 3)2，Why should this condition hold? Suppose it didnt. Suppose R$ R + (Ee$/ - E$/)/E$/ Then no investor would want to hold euro deposits, driving down the demand and price of euros.Then all investors would want to hold dollar deposits, driving up the demand and price of dollars.The dollar would appreciate and the euro would depreciate, increasing the right side until equality was achieved:R$ R + (Ee$/ - E$/)/E$/ 3，画图分析Determination of equilibrium dollar/euro exchange rate At point 2, the rates of return on euro deposits is higher, which is driving up demand and price of euros. Euros appreciate and dollars depreciate, so its equilibrium is on the point 1.No one is willing to hold dollar deposits, 同理可以分析point 3.2，covered interest parity (通过远期外汇套期保值)R$ = R + (F$/ - E$/)/E$/ （远期外汇市场存在导致的利率平价）Where F$/ is the forward exchange rate.It says that rates of return on dollar deposits and “covered” foreign currency deposits are the same.Covered positions using the forward rate involve little risk.Chapter 14(此章是核心重点) money interest rates and exchange rates一：The model of aggregate of demand of moneyMd = P x L(R,Y)P is the price levelY is real national incomeR is a measure of interest rates on non-monetary assetsL(R,Y) is the aggregate demand of real monetary assetsAlternatively:Md/P = L(R,Y)二：the model of money market1，Ms/P = L(R,Y) ,2，Determination of the equilibrium of interest rate (货币市场的均衡)a, When there is an excess supply of monetary assets, there is an excess demand for interest bearing assets like bonds, loans, and deposits.b, When there is an excess demand of monetary assets, there is an excess supply of interest bearing assets like bonds, loans, and deposits.3,动态变化均衡(非常重要)当货币供给增加时,货币市场均衡点的变化；conclusion：An increase in the money supply lowers the interest rate for a given price level当货币需求增加（由净收入增加引起）时，货币市场均衡点的变化。Conclusion: An increase in national income increases equilibrium interest rates for a given price level.3,货币市场与外汇市场动态均衡（极有可能出大题的）Money market and exchange marketa , simultaneous equilibrium in the u.s. money market and foreign exchange marketb ,the effect on the dollar/euro exchange rate and dollar interest rate of an increase in the u.s. money supply.此图说明国内货币市场的变动（货币供给增加）对外汇市场的影响。c ,超调（overshooting）和 回调(callback) (重点中的重点)short-run and long-run of an increase in the u.s. money supply (given real output ,Y)The expected return on euro deposits rises because of inflationary expectations:The dollar is expected to be less valuable when buying goods and services and less valuable when buying euros. The dollar is expected to depreciate, increasing the return on deposits in eurosAs prices increase,the real money supply decreases and the domestic interest rate returns to its long run rateConclusion: money prices and exchange ratesA permanent increase in a countrys money supply causes a proportional long run depreciation of its currency.However, the dynamics of the model predict a large depreciation first and a smaller subsequent appreciationOvershooting : The exchange rate is said to overshoot when its immediate response to a change is greater than its long run response. Overshooting is predicted to occur when monetary policy has an immediate effect on interest rates, but not on prices and (expected) inflation. Overshooting helps explain why exchange rates are so volatile(不稳定的，反复变化的).Chapter 15Price level and exchange rate in the long run一：the law of one priceThe law of one price simply says that the same good in different competitive markets must sell for the same price, when transportation costs and barriers between those markets are not important.PpizzaUS = (EUS$/C$) x (PpizzaCanada)PpizzaUS = price of pizza in SeattlePpizzaCanada = price of pizza in VancouverEUS$/C$ = US dollar/Canadian dollar exchange rate二：Purchasing power parity(ppp) (重点)Purchasing power parity is the application of the law of one price across countries for all goods and services, or for representative groups (“baskets”) of goods and services. PUS = (EUS$/C$) x (PCanada)PUS = level of average prices in the USPCanada = level of average prices in CanadaEUS$/C$ = US dollar/Canadian dollar exchange rateEUS$/C$ = PUS/PCanada1，absolute pppExchange rates equal the level of relative average prices across countries.E$/ = PUS/PEU2, relative ppp (一定明确inflation 和exchange 的关系)changes in exchange rates equal changes in prices (inflation) between two periods:(E$/,t - E$/, t 1)/E$/, t 1 = pUS, t - pEU, t where pt = inflation rate from period t-1 to t三：Monetary approach to exchange rates (注意此处只研究长期汇率调整问题)It uses monetary factors to predict how exchange rates adjust in the long run.PUS = MsUS/L (R$, YUS) ；E$/ = PUS/PEU下面具体分析货币政策对汇率的影响，（咱们分析的是长期情况 in the long run）1，Money supply: a permanent rise in the domestic money supply Causes a proportional increase in the domestic price level, Causing a proportional depreciation in the domestic currency (through PPP). 2, Interest rates: a rise in domestic interest ratesLowers the demand of real monetary assets, And is as